December 2008 Archives

On this, the final day of 2008, and the 590th since final assembly began on ZA001, the first 787 Dreamliner is preparing to leave Building 40-26 in Everett to begin a four month trek to the sky.

Boeing's 787 Dreamliner program has had five first flight dates set, but a timeline for key program milestones has now emerged that outlines a grueling testing gauntlet to first flight in late April, sources tell FlightBlogger.

Starting on the evening of January 2nd, Dreamliner One will depart its home in Building 40-26 and make the short trip to an open slot on the 767 line in Building 40-24. ZA001 will occupy the spot currently held by ZY998, the fatigue airframe, which will be moved to the flight line prior to the start of fatigue testing.

ZA001 has been back on its own three legs since December 9 when the right engine was reinstalled, followed by the left engine the following day. The recently mounted twin Rolls-Royce Trent 1000s are new-build engines, not the ones originally re-hung earlier this year, having come off the line in September 2008.

As 2008 closes, Boeing has completed the incorporation of the center wing box and tank modifications, which set back the program significantly earlier this year. The modifications were conducted concurrently with the extensive fastener replacement operation.

ZA001 is expected to spend about a month inside 40-24 wrapping up final assembly operations and fastener fixes that have dominated the work on the aircraft recently.

Dreamliner One will undergo three gauntlet test phases that will eventually culminate in first flight by late April.

During the factory gauntlet, expected to begin in early February, the fight-test team will examine the onboard systems to verify their performance is as expected.

An industry source familiar with preparations for Dreamliner One's first flight says that Boeing has committed additional manpower resources to software suppliers to meet the new springtime schedule.

Following the factory gauntlet, ZA001 will undergo its aqueous wash in mid-February to clean the fuel tanks to remove contaminants like carbon dust and metal shavings, a key indicator of aircraft wing completion.

After the wash is complete four days later, ZA001 will return to the paint shop across the Boeing Freeway to receive a fresh coat of paint.
 
Around this same time, according to a report by ATW, fastener work on ZA002 will be completed, potentially signaling its readiness for ground vibration testing to validate aero-elastic computer models that will give ZA001 a green-light for its maiden voyage.

By the final week of March, ZA001 should be on the flight line in time for the intermediate gauntlet to begin. The 2nd gauntlet phase will see Dreamliner One's engines started for the first time to provide electrical power to the aircraft. This first engine test will mark the first time a commercial airliner has been started using bleedless engine architecture.

The final gauntlet will see Dreamliner One's systems running for eight days straight for extensive testing prior to moving under its own power for the first time.

Dreamliner Five Paced By Fasteners

With the fourth assembly position vacated in Building 40-26, Dreamliners Two, Three and Four will advance one position opening the body join station for Dreamliner Five. Only the three major fuselage structural sections are yet to be delivered for Dreamliner Five. The aft fuselage will likely be delivered to Everett from Vought during the first half of January.

Vought has been operating with a skeleton crew after it largely shutdown in November. Work at the Charleston, SC facility has focused entirely on preparing the aft fuselages of Dreamliners Five and Six for delivery.

Paced by fastener replacement, the Global Aeronautica integrated center fuselage section, remains in Charleston. In some cases, excessive fastener over sizing has forced the replacement of key titanium parts that need to be installed prior to delivery, says a Charleston-based source familiar with the issue.

As Boeing looks ahead to 2009 and the start of the 787 flight test program, progress on Dreamliners Two and Five are crucial for certification. Dreamliner Two will provide replicability of Dreamliner One's performance data and Dreamliner Five will kick off the certification effort of the General Electric GEnx powered 787s.

In May, Airbus revised its A380 delivery schedule for 2008 by moving its delivery target from 13 to 12 for the year. Today (December 30) in Hamburg, Airbus will hand over its 12th A380 of 2008, the fourth (of 58) for Emirates and the 13th delivered overall (of 198).

Throughout 2008, Airbus has steadily reduced the time between first flight and delivery of each A380. 2009 will bring a new delivery goal of 21 (previously 25) aircraft and deliveries to three new customers Air France, Lufthansa and China Southern. The key for Airbus 2009 will be to reduce the overall production flow time with the standardized wiring bundles now flying on MSN026, the first Wave 2 aircraft.
 

MSN	Registration	Airline	First Flight	Delivery	FF - Del (Days)
MSN005	9V-SKB	Singapore	July 19, 2005	January 11, 2008	906
MSN006	9V-SKC	Singapore	November 17, 2006	March 11, 2008	480
MSN008	9V-SKD	Singapore	March 19, 2007	April 26, 2008	404
MSN010	9V-SKE	Singapore	December 21, 2007	June 28, 2008	190
MSN011	A6-EDA	Emirates	September 4, 2007	July 28, 2008	328
MSN012	9V-SKF	Singapore	February 20, 2008	September 18, 2008	211
MSN014	VH-OQA	QANTAS	January 25, 2008	September 19, 2008	238
MSN013	A6-EDB	Emirates	April 4, 2008	October 24, 2008	203
MSN016	A6-EDC	Emirates	May 28, 2008	November 15, 2008	171
MSN015	VH-OQB	QANTAS	June 25, 2008	December 15, 2008	173
MSN022	VH-OQC	QANTAS	August 1, 2008	December 27, 2008	148
MSN020	A6-EDD	Emirates	July 15, 2008	December 30, 2008	168

2008 was a bad year for airlines. Eight US airlines folded in 2008, and with a rocky road ahead for 2009, I wanted to drill down and examine what this past year really meant for airlines in dollars and cents. We know the big picture: oil spiked in July to $147 a barrel and threatened to put a death grip on airlines facing the worst industry crisis since 9/11.

A little light blog fodder for the holidays

I've been playing Microsoft Flight Simulator for about a decade now, and it's one of those extensions of my love of aviation that simply never gets old. I, of course, have less time to play than I used to, but I always love it just the same.

I'm the kind of simmer that doesn't settle for anything less than a replica befitting a type rating.

So, when it came time to buy a new computer last January, I had to think long and hard. I had always been a diehard Windows user, though I'm drawn to the Mac interface. My only hold out was Flight Simulator. My beat up old Dell couldn't run Flight Simulator X (FSX), which I had purchased, installed, then uninstalled ages ago. Flight Simulator 2004 (FS2004) was still running smoothly, so giving up Windows was a non-starter if FS had to go with it.

But I broke down and got a new iMac (2.8 ghz Core 2 Duo, 2 GB SDRAM) anyway about a year ago. So what made me give up a Windows based system?

Two words: Boot Camp.

Boot Camp allowed me to install Windows XP using a partitioned hard drive. Problem solved. Though, I was still hesitant I could get any decent performance out of the software. I installed FSX on my Mac and was sorely disappointed. I had opted for a more power from my computer, but FSX was still barely playable.

FS2004 ran quite well on Windows via Boot Camp, but didn't give me the latest version and newest features, yet still gave me my flight simulator fix.

Though, everything changed a few weeks ago after trolling the tubes, I was finding that many people found FSX disappointing and was having performance issues even on the most powerful PC systems. Was it my Mac? Or was it FSX?

The results were surprising. Very intrepid FS tinkerers have come up with many tweaks and fixes. By adjusting the backend configuration settings in the fsx.cfg file and some scaled down textures, I was able to get FSX running like a dream with some of the highest visual settings (autogen max) and smooth performance (30-50 fps). The shot below was taken with the Project Opensky 777-200 over Seattle.

Be careful though, changing these setting may harm your software and you do so at your own risk.

Flight Simulator X for Mac - 100% possible. Happy simming!

The good news is that the Boeing's 787 maintenance plan has been approved by the FAA, which is a major step towards gaining overall certification for the Dreamliner. The bad news is that Air New Zealand won't be able to put it into action with its first 787-9 until early 2013, a year later than last informed and greater than two years from originally promised.

"Boeing confirmed yesterday a further 12-month delay could be expected with the first 787-9 aircraft to be delivered to Air New Zealand in the first quarter of 2013," the carrier said in a statement.

Air New Zealand's first 787-9, the 135th 787 to come out of Everett, was originally expected in January 2012, but is now set for early 2013. The twin 787-9 flight test aircraft (88 & 93) will likely take to the sky about six to eight months ahead of the first delivery to Air New Zealand.

The December - January issue of Aviation and the Environment features a look at what is now being dubbed the 737 Re-Generation, a half generation leap for Boeing's venerable narrowbody with suite of new enhancements.

"We can't wait 10 years [for fuel burn improvements]," says Mike van der Ven, executive vice president for Southwest Airlines. "I'm not comfortable waiting a decade for an improved engine. We're very interested in a manufacturer improving engine economics." 

This suggests Southwest might be interested in a geared turbofan-powered airplane, although Van der Ven also notes that the LEAP-X holds great promise, and will be "very competitive" with the PW1000G.

"From an operator's perspective, you could have a firm choice by 2013 with 10 per cent improvements, and that's meaningful," he says. 2013 is the planned EIS for Pratt & Whitney's PurePower 1000G engine on smaller jets being developed, but within the timeframe the company could develop one for the 737.

All of the planning for 737 improvements are paced by two key factors. The first, is the availability of engineering resources which are currently focused on the 787 and 747-8 programs. The second, and perhaps more importantly, is what Airbus chooses to do with its A320 Enhanced as the European airframer flight tests blended winglets and the PW1000G under the wing of an A340.

Southwest Airlines awarded a $40M to General Electric to retrofit its entire fleet of 737-300s with twin 15.4-inch SDS-6000 glass displays to enable RNP (Required Navigation Performance) operations across the overwhelming majority of its 737 fleet. 

Well it's winter and this is the final open thread of 2008.

The final chapter of the 21st Century Jet saga brings us to preparations for the 777s entry into service in May 1995. This episode details all of the hoops a new commercial aircraft must jump through as readies for its official hand off to United Airlines. As you'll see, the first 777, LN7 - N777UA, had a few kinks (IFE) still left to be worked out as it entered service between London and Dulles. The most impressive part of this episode is watching the 777 as it qualifies for ETOPS (engines turn or passengers swim) certification at entry into service.

In addition, the last of five parts also features the famous wing break of the static test airframe and the spectacular imagery that accompanied it.

Episode V: Countdown to Delivery

Watch the previous four episodes:
Episode I: To Design a Plane
Episode II: The Sum of Its Parts
Episode III: A Plane Takes Shape
Episode IV: Taking Flight

Special thanks to the reader who sent me this. 

Ben Sandilands, Australian aerospace reporter and author of Plane Talking, got an official statement from Boeing on the 787 wing delamination claim which was featured (and debunked) over the weekend. Apparently, when Ben asked Boeing about the claim, he was "repeatedly asked to use Ostrower's subsequent determination of the rumor as having no substance in lieu of a Boeing statement."

Here's what Boeing had to say:

Our tests continue to confirm that the composite construction of the 787, including the wing, is sound. The 787, like every commercial jetliner, is going through a rigorous series of tests to verify the safety and certificability of its structure, systems and operations. The FAA will review the results of this compliance activity prior to certifying the airplane for commercial use.

AIRBUS UNDERTAKES BLENDED-WINGLET EVALUATION ON A320
Airbus has started flight-testing of Blended Winglet devices on an Airbus A320. The Blended Winglet technology, developed by Aviation Partners Inc. (API), has been specially adapted for these tests on the A320 Family.

Airbus A320 - MSN001 - F-WWBA

With the global economy heading south, the Chinese Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) says it wants airlines in China to delay or cancel delivery of aircraft in 2009.

London Edition

Last we left N7771, it had just completed its high speed taxi test. Boeing could no longer test on the ground and it was time to take flight. On June 12, 1994, the 777-200 took to the cloudy skies of the Pacific Northwest for the first time. Once it departed the Everett concrete, the 777 began the most rigorous testing regime for a Boeing commercial aircraft in the company's history.

Light load on this run across the pond to London as BA264. This 777
was delivered in 1998 (cn 117) to British Airways and was amongst the
last -200s delivered.

UPDATE 1:10 PM 12/14: After consultation with various sources, I've determined this rumor can be declared false. Thanks to all who assisted in determining the veracity of this claim. I understand why some might've been upset that I introduced this idea in a public forum, but it helped to answer this question. Thanks, Jon.

Yesteday, Boeing cited two causes to explain the latest 787 delay:

The new schedule reflects the impact of disruption caused by the recent Machinists' strike along with the requirement to replace certain fasteners in early production airplanes.

I'm not one for rumors, but I feel as though the following comment left on the Seattle PI blog on December 12 deserves some attention:

Posted by unregistered user at 12/12/08 12:49 p.m.

The real reason for the delay is we've found that the carbon composite wings on the static test specimen is delaminating and therefore the flight test airplanes need NDT testing after ripping all the systems out. This is an elementary failure in structural design.

Perhaps this is a baseless claim, but it's worth noting, this is the 3rd time today I've heard the D-word (delaminating) as it relates to part of the 787 structure. The first time came prior to this comment on the Seattle PI blog and then again later this evening from another source.

If this claim of delamination is categorically false, then it should be laid to rest where it stands.

It's been a long time since I've crowd-sourced information, but if there is an explanation about this delamination claim on ZY997 one way or another, please contact me at flightblogger (at) gmail (dot) com.

Delta's first 747-400 from Northwest being Repainted. Currently away
from my desk, more shots are coming and wanted to get this one up
asap. Special thanks to the friend who sent these to me.

Boeing has surpassed the 900 order mark for its Boeing 787 Dreamliner program, the company says.

Major news on top of the revised 787 schedule announcement today: 

Boeing Announces Leadership Moves; Restructures Commercial Airplanes Organizations
SEATTLE, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) today announced a series of executive leadership changes and a restructuring within Boeing Commercial Airplanes to better align resources across its development and production programs and strengthen oversight of its global supply chain.

Boeing Schedules 787 Dreamliner First Flight for Second Quarter 2009; First Delivery for First Quarter 2010
EVERETT, Wash., Dec. 11, 2008 -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] today announced an updated schedule for its all-new 787 Dreamliner program that moves the commercial jet's first flight into the second quarter of 2009 and first delivery into the first quarter of 2010. The new schedule reflects the impact of disruption caused by the recent Machinists' strike along with the requirement to replace certain fasteners in early production airplanes.

There's speculation abound about the timing of the announcement of the latest 787 delay. Looks like it's likely to come before the week is out. I've been hearing similar buzz as well.

James Wallace - Seattle PI:

Meanwhile, I'm hearing from airline and industry sources that Boeing may announce as soon as Thursday the expected latest delay for the 787 program, which could be another six months.

Glenn Farley - KING5

The company won't confirm the delay, but the buzz with the airlines is that an official announcement will come by Friday, if not sooner.

Sources close to some of the airlines who are buying the new 787 Dreamliner have been getting warnings since Monday that Boeing is close to announcing a delay of possibly six months.

Late last week, Cirrus Design held a press conference on its new Vision personal jet aircraft. I first began covering "The Jet" over the summer at EAA when I met Mike Van Staagen, Vice President of Advanced Design Development Group for Cirrus. Flight testing was just getting underway and the N280CJ had made its first trip out of state to Oshkosh. We discussed the challenges ahead for the program, as well as potential design changes that were in the pipeline.

Back in October, I spoke with Mike again at NBAA in Orlando and he took me around the Vision mock up on the hall floor. I put together this video and with FAA certification getting underway in the next two weeks, this clip provides a good guide for what to expect out of the Vision.

Van Staagen discusses the changes in the vectored thrust angle, the ruddervator structure, the wing positioning, flap deflection size and angles, as well as the single door configuration. Over at Cirrus Design's website, Mike takes an even more detailed look at all of the Vision's design features.

Adding to that, Jeff Decker scooped the Vision fuselage changes in November:

"We've smoothed the wing-to-fuselage joint, changed the cross-section slightly and improved the wing root fairing." Ventral fins on the second prototype have been enlarged and the V-tail has been moved further aft. The SJ-50 has logged more than 100 flight hours since July. "The target stall speed of 61kt [113km/h]," Klapmeier says, "will probably end up being 65kt because we have increased the gross weight." That weight increase will provide more utility with 860kg [1,900lb] of fuel and 180kg of payload".

As of last week, the MTOW of "The Jet" was raised to 6000 lbs. to accommodate more fuel for additional range. Also, V-1 Vision prototype was flown to 319 kts, indicating that the production standard will easily be able to deliver a 300 kt cruising speed.

Word on the street is that the designation of the aircraft is under review. It will definitely be known as the Vision, but "SJ50" is up in the air. Also, a battle is underway between L3 and Garmin to provide the glass avionics for the Vision. The L3 Smart Deck flies on V1, but the Garmin Perspective is a major part of the smaller Cirrus product line.

Dreamliner Dossier hits the cover of Flight
After last week's publication of Airbus' Lessons Learnt, Flight has devoted its cover to the document this week. The issue provides an expanded look at the dossier, as well as an additional story I wrote about the potential for political fallout as we approach the tanker rebid next year. The issue will be on newsstands tomorrow.

787 Update Watch
Keeping an ear to the ground for when it'll be.

Question for discussion: If first flight is targeted for June, should 787 fly at or just before the Paris Air Show? And how does one be in two places at once? (Historical note: 15th anniversary of 777 first flight)

Also...
The 77th 777 for Singapore is now in final assembly in Everett. One in ten 777s wear a 9V- registration.

More QANTAS A380s coming
After last week's twin peek at the QANTAS A380s in Hamburg, news comes that VH-OQB, number two for QF, has been ferried back to Toulouse for delivery sometime in the next seven days. MSN015 should find its way to Sydney sometime around December 17. If all goes as planned, VH-OQC should be in QANTAS' hands before 2009 as well.

A350 Galley Controversy
My colleague Max Kingsley-Jones pens a interesting story about the controversy being generated around a potential redesign of the aft galley of the Airbus A350 XWB. Just by the looks of it, having to make a 90-degree turn with a galley cart could cause a world of trouble. Could this be slowing down firm configuration?

Continental's Twin-Engine Bio Fuel Test
It's not until January 7th, but Continental Airlines will take a 737-800 into the sky with Jatropha/Algae derived bio-fuel. We've seen bio-fuel tests before, but what makes this notable is that it's the first time we've seen the test on a twin-engine commercial aircraft. It's a pretty big step forward for the sense of operational confidence in the technology. Going from 25% to 50% of your engines is nothing to be scoffed at.

And speaking of Continental, how about 80 channels of LiveTV on its domestic narrow-body fleet?

With a good portion of final assembly completed, work now focuses on preparing WA001, the first 777-200, for its first flight. The Pratt & Whitney 4000 development features prominently in this episode and really takes you inside the challenges of developing a new engine. The PW4000 was actually flown under the wing of RA001, the first 747. Keep an eye out for the frozen chicken test as well.

WA001 also gets its roll out celebration in this episode on April 9, 1994. Following the roll out final preparations were made for first flight, including the high speed taxi tests. Another interesting thing to notice is that the high-blow test takes place on WA001 itself, not the static test airframe like on the 787 program. This episode also marks the point where 777 progress loses a contemporary 787 comparison, but does provide a frame for what is ahead for the Dreamliner.

Episode III: A Plane Takes Shape

Wall Street Journal says:

Boeing Co. is considering pushing back the first deliveries of its flagship 787 Dreamliner by at least six more months to account for the recent strike by union machinists, as well as other snags in getting the troubled jetliner airborne.

According to people familiar with the situation, Boeing officials are expected to announce later this month that the first deliveries of the fuel-efficient jet might not occur until as late as summer 2010, more than two years after the jet was originally scheduled to enter service.

In recent days, these people said, Boeing officials have been meeting with suppliers and partners on the jet program in an effort to get their arms around a number of challenges that have sprung up in part because of the volume of work that Boeing outsourced on the program.

Boeing says in response:

We are currently conducting an assessment of the 787 program schedule. We will communicate it when it is complete. We do not have the exact timing yet on when that communication will occur.

The Journal has a knack for serving as a 'leading indicator' to an official BCA announcement..

My biggest take away on the Airbus dossier is that the European company sees the Boeing 787-9 as the killer app. Rarely, has the first generation iteration of a Boeing jetliner been delivered in great volume.

The 727-100, 737-100, 747-100, 767-200 and 777-200 did not define their respective programs. With the exception of the 757-200, first generation airliners aren't largely produced.

Take the 767-300ER for example. That aircraft accounts for more than half of the 950+ 767 deliveries during the production run. The 767-200ER runs a distant second with 121 deliveries. The -300ER entered service in 1988, six years after the first 767-200 delivery.

Boeing sold the 787-8 as 2nd/3rd generation mature technology (a la 777-300ER) in a 1st generation package, which explains its sales success. Full technological maturity by EIS, it's a very attractive offer. The reality is that 1st generation technology is still 1st generation and Boeing has already said that the 787-9 will be the biggest recipient of Boeing's 787 lessons learnt.

With Boeing, Airbus, Embraer and Bombardier all forecasting an up-gauge in the overall size of aircraft, the 787-9 with more seats, will likely be the beneficiary of this trend for Boeing. The 900 orders booked currently split largely for the 787-8, though customers contractually have the option to switch variants.

I'm willing to bet that the 787 orderbook balance will dash to the nine.

Late last night on the east coast the membership of SPEEA approved a new four-year contract by a vote of 69%. The ratification of the new contract closes a tumultuous chapter that has dominated the second half of 2008 for Boeing. The very recent memory of the pain incurred by Boeing, the IAM and their membership undoubtedly informed the negotiations with SPEEA. Both sides involved in negotiations used the IAM experience to their respective advantages to garner a amicable contract that serves both the needs of management and the engineer.

It's no secret that both sides postured and positioned for an advantage in the public eye, often butting heads rhetorically, but at the end of the day a solution was found. Let's hope the positive outcome serves as a future model and a step forward in labor/management relations for Boeing and its Unions.

SPEEA Votes
Tonight in Seattle, the votes of Boeing's Engineers Union will be tallied. The union will ratify or reject the new four-year contract offered to the 20,500 strong membership. The Union leadership has recommended ratification, though passage depends on a simple majority vote of the membership. Union members have two votes, the first of which is ratification of the contract (yes or no) and authorization for a strike (yes or no). We could know the result as early as 11pm ET/8pm PT tonight.

Economy Stalls CSeries
With the economy doing a nauseating series of high G maneuvers, China is significantly cutting back capacity on its state-owned airlines (redundant?). This cut in capacity will inevitably delay a CSeries order, putting Bombardier's fledgling 130 seater in a precarious spot without a firm launch customer, especially after the Summer's soft commitment from Lufthansa.

"We had previously anticipated that a Chinese customer would place a significant order for the CSeries aircraft," Mr. Poirier said in a note to clients Thursday. "However, with the Chinese carriers' poor passenger traffic and profitability figures, and the announcement by the CAAC, we believe an order from a Chinese customer will not be placed in the short to medium term."

Delta's Dreamliners Become Worldliners
Open delivery slots on 787 and the purchase of a more expensive 777-200LRs is just fine with Boeing, but the question should be asked: is this part of a compensation package for a 787 delay to Northwest? Also, what role has the 787 weight gain played in influencing the missions that 787 can now perform?

Dubai-London on A380
With Emirates now the proud operator of 3 Airbus A380 aircraft, the airline kicked off direct Dubai-London service today. London is now the only European city with A380 service (period) and now with two airlines. Sydney is served by QANTAS and Singapore.

Something lighter:

Report: Planes Just As Afraid Of John Madden
WASHINGTON--The Federal Aviation Administration stated Wednesday that, according to all available evidence, airplanes are just as afraid of carrying sportscaster John Madden as he is of traveling on them. "Airliners have a not unreasonable fear that, were John Madden to board them, it would increase their chances of crashing," said FAA administrator Robert A. Sturgell, reading from the report. "While looking at John Madden, planes often express a sense of inadequacy and a heightened fear of losing control. Our studies have not found, however, that planes have any more reason to be afraid of John Madden than they do of any other grossly overweight celebrity." To help reduce planes' fears, Boeing has enrolled their fleet of commercial airliners in an education program about the realities of John Madden, which will explain exactly how he works, the meaning of the various sounds he generates, and why he may vibrate or gurgle when under way.

See Kieran Daly for more.

In other news...
I may or may not be turning 25 on Saturday.

The second episode of 21st Century Jet delves into the intricacies of the global supply chain built for the 777. In comparison to the structure of the 787 supply chain, it's actually quite amazing just how straightforward it was. It also illustrates the types of challenges that can go from localized to a threat to the overall program schedule. Also discussed is the cultural relationship between the Japanese and Americans, which grew even stronger for the development of the 787. At one point in the video even asks about the future of the Japanese aircraft industry and how long it would be until they build an aircraft domestically. We see that manifested today in the MRJ.

Episode II: The Sum of Its Parts