Mr. al-Baker of Qatar Airways has become a human starting gun of sorts for industry discussion about re-engining the 737 and A320. His airline has been in (deadlocked) negotiations with Bombardier about the CSeries, while the prospect of such an order has provided Mr. al-Baker with a springboard to push the idea of a re-engined A320 as a potentially superior aircraft to the 120 to 149-seat CS300. Not to be out done, Boeing's Randy Tinseth is openly discussing the prospect of a re-engined 737, addressing it as technically possible, but with strategic considerations at the forefront.
Pratt & Whitney, widely believed to be a lead contender for the engine selection for the A320 and/or 737, has been actively pushing its PW1000G geared turbofan engine, which has already been through flight testing underneath the wing of an Airbus A340-600.
On the other end, the 100 to 125-seat CS100 has quietly prompted Embraer to evaluate exactly how the new narrowbody would stack up against its largest 100-seat E-195. Tucked away on page 32 of Air Insight's must read report on the future of commercial aerospace programs in Brazil, Canada, China and Japan and Russia, the Brazilian airframer delivered a noteworthy assessment of the CS100.
The real threat [to Embraer] comes from Bombardier. A proven competitor, Bombardier is taken seriously. However, Embraer points out that the CSeries wing is optimized for the larger CS300. That means the CS100 has a larger wing than needed, and as a result the CS100 will weigh ~5,000kg more than its E-195. Even with the [Pratt & Whitney PW1000G] geared fan, Embraer expects to see the CS100 only offer a 2% fuel burn advantage over the E‐195. Given that the CS100 is a new design with a program settling‐in period, Embraer believes it has some time before it needs to react to the new competition. Emphasis AddedBoeing and Airbus always promised a robust response to CSeries. Their turf is well established and with the prospect of a significant loss of market share (read: cash flow) Boeing and Airbus will fight new entrants tooth and nail. For Embraer, their assessment leaves the door open to significant changes to the E-Jet family. Would a next generation E-Jet leap frog a CS100 in the 100-seat segment? No matter how you fold it, CSeries represents a competitive threat to Embraer, Boeing and Airbus and we've only just begun to see the response.
on October 14, 2009 1:33 PM | Reply
Are the Boeing 737 engines slung so low as to preclude an engine upgrade. Would a LEAP -X solution work since it is just 1 1/2 inches wider.
Unless they are able to reintergrate the engine into the wing, It appears that the 737 has fewer options short of redesign.
Does it not appear that there will be sufficient quality competition for the single aisle models so that ultimately, Boeing will have to relinquish some dominence and rely on its widebody expertise. In this area it is far more difficult for competition to enter and compete.
This is just the reality of emerging companies with State support and technological capabilities.
on October 14, 2009 1:34 PM | Reply
I'm assuming from the reaction to the -8i that operators need a game-changer, not another gold-wrapped hamburger. The 737 is Boeing's bread and butter now, but unless they come up with a new-build product that nuzzles right underneath the 787, the soon-to-be-crowded single-aisle market will only get painful for the folks in Everett/Chicago. They need to pull their heads out sooner rather than later. Even an announcement should give the shares a good bounce (maybe following a Commercial Airplanes mgmt overhaul, too).
on October 14, 2009 2:58 PM | Reply
Where exactly are Boeing and Airbus going to get the engineering resources to update the 737 and the A320 family of aircraft? Both Boeing and Airbus are already strapped for engineering resources by the 787,747-8 and A350. That is not even looking at their military projects like their prospective tanker bids. So sure, Boeing and Airbus could re-engine their aircraft but by the time they get the engineering resources in place the next generation engines will be available and they will be forced into bring out totally new aircraft.
on October 14, 2009 3:48 PM | Reply
I two wonder how much Boeing can update their 737. You can't just keep strapping new avionics and engines to a 45 year old design. They have to come with an entirely new clean sheet design soon I think.
on October 14, 2009 4:15 PM | Reply
I just hope Bombardier has a better programmer for their avionics than they do for their computer graphics. That must have been the worst aircraft promotional video ever.
on October 14, 2009 7:56 PM | Reply
Hi Jon,
If you compare the MTOW of the E-195AR version and CS100 (basic version), the difference is 2459 kg and not 5000 kg.
Thank you
on October 15, 2009 4:28 AM | Reply
In my comment on the link below, I tried to define an "upper bound" for the 737 or A320. it looks more and more plausible that the re-engining of those two aircraft could happen somewhere around 2015.
http://verovenia.wordpress.com/2009/03/26/super-massive-black-hole/#comment-21
This post my be worth (re)reading as well.
http://verovenia.wordpress.com/2009/09/20/not-so-strategic-part-2/
on October 15, 2009 4:56 AM | Reply
In response to Wickid - I would think that given the 787 near death experience at Boeing, no one will be brave enough to suggest a totally new design. The current 737 design would be seen by Boeing as good enough for another 20 years.
In the narrowbody space - I think that the big two dominance will start waning. Embraer and Bombardier will start making inroads. We will also start seeing Antonov, Mitsubishi and maybe even Superjet start taking big orders over the next 3 years.
on October 15, 2009 11:48 AM | Reply
I think the thing for Boeing to do is take a production 737 and start Hot Roding it. You already know that the market likes that size of aircraft, so give the market what it wants. So take the technology designed for the 787 and start bolting as much of it as you can into the 737 Aluminum Shell. Then once you have all bugs worked out of the aluminum version, start swap out the aluminum fuselage pieces for carbon fuselage pieces. The advantage of this system is the carbon technology has to prove superior to the convention technology before it gets the okay to be incorporated on the aircraft.