Late last night, Aviation Week's Guy Norris published a blog post discussing progress on the upcoming A330-200F first flight and the potential for 787 first flight by year's end: Meanwhile up in Seattle, first flight of the 'other' new twin, the Boeing 787, still remains at least a month away with ZA001 and the other test aircraft in various states of storage and modification, and a re-activation pending structural test results from the side-of-body rework on static airframe ZY997.Boeing says the installation of the wingfix on ZA001 is not yet complete, and sources say completion on ZA002 is now slightly ahead. There's conflicting information on the next point, which suggests some early steps are being taken to prepare ZA002 for flight ahead of ZA001 if it is ready first, but others indicate that ZA001 is still the prime candidate for 787 first flight.
Boeing continues to reaffirm that the 787 will fly before the end of 2009.
Additional program sources indicate that the installation of the wing fix on ZA001 is tentatively scheduled to be complete just before the middle part of the month. Once ZA001 and/or ZA002 are ready, ZY997 becomes the pacing item for the full-scale validation of the side of body modification.
Mr. Norris followed up with an additional post this afternoon that mapped out the remaining tasks for ZA001 before first flight. His assessment leads to a late-December target for ZA001's first flight. Once the static testing is complete and the fix is validated, Mr. Norris says, ZA001 will begin a three-week pre-flight process of gauntlet tests and other activity.
My sources and Guy's sources both agree: Either way there's a busy December in store for Everett.
on November 5, 2009 7:22 PM | Reply
Jon, Good update but a little confusing.
ZY997 is certainly the pacing line but your article indicates that ZA001 is not yet complete but ZA002 is a step ahead.
WHERE IS ZY997 in this time frame? Does not the stress test have to come first so that ZY997 should be the first one completed.
Also, is it true that once the stress test is successful, the remaining gauntlets should not be a huge obstacle before first flight.
on November 5, 2009 7:37 PM | Reply
Based on Guy Norris' update, it appears that if Gauntlet testing is estimated to begin after Thanksgiving (Nov 26th), there are approximately 20 days left for the fix to be in place on the ZA997 s well as the stress test to be successfully completed along with all the interpretation and analysis necessary....or at least enough to enable the gauntlet tests to occur.
He indicates it may be a busy December in Everett but it appears that it will be a very busy November too....with big pressure on a successful stress test.
on November 5, 2009 8:47 PM | Reply
Call me a skeptic, but by the time Boeing dots all the I's and cross all the T's it will be late January before the 787 flys. Their is no point rushing first flight now because once your late, your just late, and their nothing you can to do to fix that. So Boeing might as well take full advantage of it.
on November 5, 2009 10:19 PM | Reply
I could not agree more with alloycowboy because it is already late, whats a month going to do, they just didn't make it if they dont and its still going to fly but this time they are sure, and its not rushed.
on November 6, 2009 12:50 AM | Reply
Test Flight before the end of 2009 is a psychological milestone for Boeing. So what if it is in January 2010.
In any case I will not be holding my breath as yet
on November 6, 2009 2:20 AM | Reply
I am confident that the 787 will NOT fly by the end of the year. There simply is TOO much to do with TOO little time - even with the holidays coming up.
The plane will fly sometime in January or February 2010, when everything is finally ironed out.
I don't believe that the additional testing on the static test plane will go smoothly either. There are bound to be "surprises" that have not been anticipated, and therefore further testing or modifications may have to be made.
These are my opinions only, but based on realistic assumptions. Hopefully I'm wrong, but we'll see.
BTW, Ford made over $1B last quarter - not bad EH???
Thankyouverymuch!
on November 6, 2009 3:09 AM | Reply
You may recall that when Boeing first announced the time frame to repair the side body fix, it claimed that it left itself enough room to assure the completion and flight before the end of the year. Jim Albaugh certainly does not wish to start his term with an additional postponement.
I think the static stress test is the key. If that goes well there should be some optimism as to first flight.
My recollection from Jon's earlier posts are that the final gauntlets move pretty quickly. They involve taxiing preparations, a low and hi speed test, etc. Whatever preparatory work possible has probably been done already and all the engineering resources have been concentrated on this effort
My sense is optimistic. There is something symbolic about a Holiday Season first flight and I believe all efforts are behind a good start to 2010.
We have had enough Mr.Grinch and past CEO negative comments for one year. This is Santa's gift in the making and the result of alot of hard work on the part of alot of dedicated people.
on November 6, 2009 4:52 AM | Reply
This is more than just some "psychological" milestone. Bear in mind that this aircraft was meant to fly over 2 years ago, and be in service by now! If the program is delayed again (looking likely) it will be the third or fourth time that Boeing have sent a representative to inform the public that they have practically no clue what they're up against... not the kind of image you expect from an industry leader.
on November 6, 2009 10:57 AM | Reply
It is the beginning of November, and you are taking the report that first flight may be a month away to mean Boeing has blown it and will not fly until next year???
By the way most everything was completed for first flight prior to the fix. Boeing only has to re-prep the airplane and finish up a high-speed taxi test and then fly
on November 6, 2009 11:17 AM | Reply
How likely is it that the fix will work?
Normally, you would trust that Boeing would be confident with a fix and knew exactly what is going to work and what won't work so well. But as far the 787 program is concerned that trust has diminished with each new problem.
My worry is that Boeing tests the fix on ZY997 only to discover that the fix isn't good enough.
Is there any risk that a fix won't or even can't work and that the program is abandoned with a need to return to the drawing board. Normally I wouldn't even comprehend such a notion but Boeing seems to have lost its way quite a bit here.
I certainly hope the 787 flies but the previous reasons for delay have grown progressively worse.
on November 6, 2009 12:19 PM | Reply
Jon,
Perhaps at some point you can elaborate on Guy Norris' report and indicate what steps are in front of the 787 following the side body repair.
It seems that the 787 was finished or nearly finished with the intermediate gauntlet and preflight arrangements when the flight was postponed.
How many preparatory steps are remaining before fist flight and what time line does that require.
on November 6, 2009 2:23 PM | Reply
How likely is it that the fix will work?
Normally, you would trust that Boeing would be confident with a fix and knew exactly what is going to work and what won't work so well. But as far the 787 program is concerned that trust has diminished with each new problem.
My worry is that Boeing tests the fix on ZY997 only to discover that the fix isn't good enough.
Is there any risk that a fix won't or even can't work and that the program is abandoned with a need to return to the drawing board. Normally I wouldn't even comprehend such a notion but Boeing seems to have lost its way quite a bit here.
I certainly hope the 787 flies but the previous reasons for delay have grown progressively worse.
I could NOT agree any MORE.
on November 7, 2009 4:06 AM | Reply
It is very seldom in my career that a fix has involved lowering the weight of the structure. As a rule of thumb a substandard design required extra weight to fix it. In my opinion an some kind of additional cleat is required here.
The proposed notch is likely to crack without this.
Mo
on November 7, 2009 8:59 AM | Reply
Would someone explain what a gauntlet test is, other than a final one?
What makes one a gauntlet test other than someone just calling a test that?
Had not seen that term until the 787. Is it just marketing like so many things now days?
on November 9, 2009 10:14 AM | Reply
Before the wing issue arose, the A/P would have been limited to a 10.000 ft. ceiling by engineering due to pack issues (Ham Sunstrand) and lack of confidence. I have yet to see or hear of a hard fix for the ACS issues, therefore have no reason to believe that first flight wouldn't be ceiling limited.
on November 10, 2009 3:43 PM | Reply
May be wrong on this , but I thought Boeing was like the construction industry & shut down for Xmas.