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January 2010 Archives

I've found my way on board Singapore Airlines A380-800 (9V-SKA) for the second of my two flights to Asia. This particular airplane was the first production A380 (MSN003), which carried the maiden commercial superjumbo service in October 2007 between Singapore and Sydney. I'll be airborne for about 12 hours then I'll hit the ground for a busy, busy week. Catch you on the other side of the world (from the East Coast). Next stop Singapore!


Good morning from London Heathrow! I'm here on the ground during my layover and I thought I'd take this quiet moment to provide a brief update and good round up of all that is going on for Boeing's two primary development programs.

Let's start with 747-8F
While Boeing says it's not officially a re-run of the final gauntlet testing of January 21-23rd, program sources say RC501 (N747EX) is running a second gauntlet which contains a subset of the steps run during the first. Phase two of the gauntlet is mostly "engineering retest and validation" to address some issues discovered during the first gauntlet. Mark Feuerstein and Tom Imrich took RC501 through a simulated take off and landing, as well as maneuvers between 10,000 and 12,000 feet. (Special thanks to Matt Cawby for the audio)

Ground operations consisted of control sweeps of the flight control system. Perhaps the biggest advance on the -8 is the lateral flight controls (ailerons and spoilers), which are now driven by a fly-by-wire system, the first time such a flight control system has been flown on a 747. While "in flight", Imrich cycled the flaps and landing gear and then "returned" to PAE via the JAWBN intersection with flaps to 25 and a Vref speed of 155 kts to land on runway 16R.

On the flight line, RC522 has joined RC501 and RC521. This move, completed Wednesday night, signifies that the entire flight test fleet for 747-8F certification is now factory complete. RC522 which will eventually be delivered to Nippon Cargo Airlines (NCA) is currently unpainted.

And on to 787
ZA002 (N787EX) is back in flying condition once again as it rejoined the flight test fleet on Wednesday for a four hour flight that took the 787 out of Washington state for the first time south down the Pacific Coast to Oregon and Northern California. The flight also marked the first time flight test crews have flown on the aircraft. The aircraft is tentatively scheduled to fly again as early as Sunday, January 31. The aircraft is again stationed at BFI.

ZA001 (N787BA) is still in the planned post-Initial Airworthiness layup at BFI as it prepares for the next phase of flight test heading toward the Type Inspection Authorization with the FAA. The aircraft is expected back in the sky around Groundhog Day.

ZA004 (N7874) was spotted conducting gear swings last week while ZA003 (N787BX) continues its preparations for first flight currently set for late February. Additionally, the wings for Airplane 17 (ZA150), the first GEnx-powered produciton 787 (for Royal Air Maroc) arrived in Everett from Nagoya on Thursday, January 28.

In other news, 850 Renton-based engineers are transferring to Everett to work on 787 and 747 derivatives, while ANA says it is planning to take delivery eight 787-8s between first delivery in the fourth quarter of this year and March 2011. Presumably, the aircraft would be registered JA801A through JA809A, Airplanes 7-9 and 11-15.

Sitting at seat 23J on 777-222ER (N216UA) I'm getting ready to depart
on my first leg to Singapore. This T7 will take me across the Atlantic
on United 918 by way of North Atlantic Track X to Heathrow. I'll be in
London for about five hours before transferring terminals to fly the
A380 for the first time with Singapore Airlines. When it's all said
and done I'll be in the air for about 22 hours crossing three
continents and over 9000+ miles to Southeast Asia. I'll see Singapore
Sunday morning. Next you'll hear from me it'll be first thing in the
morning in the UK and just after midnight on the East Coast. Catch you
on the other side of the pond!

annualtraffic.jpgI wanted to take this opportunity as we head into the first big show of the 2010 to say thank you to everyone for making 2009 an absolutely incredible and unprecedented year for Flightglobal.com and FlightBlogger. 

Flightglobal.com recorded more than 74 million page views during 2009 (up from 52.6 million in 2008) and posting more than 1.2 million visitors each month making FG the largest aviation news website on the planet.

FlightBlogger had a record year as well with just shy of 4 million page views and about 2.3 million visitors during 2009. 787 First Flight coverage here pushed this blog to a record month in December with 575,000 page views. Worth noting, in April 2007, this blog had just 315 visitors. We've come a long way.

Thank you all so much for your support, encouragement and enthusiasm for this page and for aviation worldwide. 2010 is going to be a great year! Stay tuned. 
787FTpatch.jpgBoeing has launched 787flighttest.com to track progress of the 787 flight test and certification program during this year. 

The site will provide a resource for flight test milestones including video, aircraft profiles, flight test glossary, profiles on 787 team leaders.

The site today features a piece on the recent ZA001 stall testing, including air-to-air video shot from chase planes at altitude.

Additionally, Boeing will provide a flight test "scoreboard" of flight hours for the six flight test aircraft in the program that will be linked directly to flightaware.com, which many use to track 787 test flights currently. Boeing plans to fly roughly 3100 hours by the time first delivery to ANA rolls around between late September and December. 
A: We're all flying from Dulles on a 777 headed for Asia.

Washington, DC's fifth most famous resident (the first four are named Obama) is leaving the US after spending his first four years at the National Zoo. Tai Shan was born in 2005 and we've watched him grow from an adorable little ball of fluff to an adorably awkward adolescent

Along with Mei Lan, a three year old panda from the Atlanta Zoo, Tai Shan will be heading moving to Chengdu, China as part of an agreement with the Chinese government which loaned the parents of each Panda to the United states.

pandaplane.jpg
Okay, I'll concede some itinerary differences here. I'm only flying 1/3 of the way to Singapore on a 777-200ER with United (then switching in London to the A380). Whereas my furry DC compatriot and his friend from Georgia are flying direct for 14 and a half hours on a -200LRF to Chengdu. I'm flying economy, they're flying in a specially designed cargo containers.

On February 4th, a specially painted FedEx 777-200LRF (N850FD) designated "The Panda Express" will take the pair from Dulles to Chengdu on their 6,645nm ride to the land of their parents.

Interestingly enough, Boeing's Randy Tinseth predicted this entire turn of events almost exactly one year ago.
Here's my story on the creation of the advanced development teams:
Boeing forms advanced development teams for 737 and 777
A day after Boeing CEO Jim McNerney announced additional research and development allocated for 777 and 737 upgrades, the company has announced the establishment of advanced product development teams to study the future of both aircraft. 

Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Jim Albaugh, has appointed Mike Bair, current VP of business strategy and marketing for commercial airplanes, and original chief of the 787 programme to head the 737 team. Lars Anderson, former 777 programme VP and general manager will come out of retirement to lead the 777 team. 

"Defining Boeing's airplane product strategy is critical to our future growth. We need a clear vision and roadmap for both our single-aisle and twin-aisle offerings for the future," says Albaugh. "Also, in the global environment in which we operate, we need a sharpened situational awareness of macro-economic and geopolitical realities."
3:49 PM: The appointment of Bair and Anderson comes as part of a broad changes at Boeing Commercial Airplanes that include new heads of BCA Business Development, Engineering, Manufacturing and Quality, 787 final assembly, Boeing Charleston site as well as the 737 and 767 programs. 

3:25 PM: The creation of the 777 and 737 Advanced Product-Development teams comes a day after CEO Jim McNerney announced that additional research and development funds would be allocated in 2011 to study the future of both products.

3:20 PM: Boeing has also created an 777 Advanced Product-Development team to study the future of the long-range twin-engine jetliner and will be headed by Lars Anderson, former head of the 777 program. Anderson has returned to Boeing after he retired in 2007.

3:07 PM: Boeing is set to announce a new program called Advanced 737 Product-Development with former 787 vice president and general manager Mike Bair as its head. Formal announcement form Boeing is expected shortly. 

2:46 PM: First Tweet.
ANA Boeing 787 N787EX, originally uploaded by moonm.

ZA002, Boeing's second 787 flight test aircraft, concluded a two week visit to Everett for an aqueous wash of its fuel tanks and departed Paine Field at 11:32 AM PT for a test flight that should have the aircraft flying for about six hours. The aircraft departed to the south, turned west, climbing to 25,000 feet then turned South down the Pacific Coast toward Oregon and on to Northern California.

The aircraft will spend the day testing the twin Trent 1000 engines and the oxygen analysis system (OAS), which is intended to measure the oxygen content in the fuel tanks while the nitrogen generation system (NGS) is in use. Guy Norris has an excellent rundown of the system and its origins.

The aircraft is expected to be back on the ground at Boeing Field, site of the company's flight test center, around 5:30 PM PT.

Boeing has reported its total orders and deliveries for 2008. This post added in March 2010 and was backdated for January 27, 2010 when the 2009 totals were reported. This post was created for reference and archive purposes.
 
Deliveries4th Quarter
Full Year
2009 Orders
737 Next Generation92372174
747284
7673132
777258820
787-----59
Total122481141

Economy Skycouch Mum & Kids After.jpg
Economy Skycouch Young Couple Stretched Out.jpg
When Boeing delivers its first 777-300ER to Air New Zealand in November, the first 11 window rows of its economy class cabin will feature a new "Skycouch" to provide a lie-flat experience. As launch customer for the 787-9, the innovative new seat was intended to be introduced starting with the first delivery originally set for late 2010. 

The airline hopes that two adults will purchase two seats and a third at roughly half the price to take advantage of the lie-flat Skycouch. No word yet on whether or not the seats will be restricted on low load factor flights, so there are definite questions on how they will manage the revenue on this very unique product.

The airline also plans to introduce a six-abreast 2-2-2 configuration for new angled Premium Economy seating (Photo below) that features a common table that Air New Zealand is comparing to business jet seats.

The economy and premium economy seats are a custom design by Air New Zealand and will be manufactured under license by Recaro and Contour, respectively. The airline hopes to sell that license to other airlines looking to introduce the economy lie-flat seats as well. 

The 777-300ER will be configured with 340 seats, including 246 Economy class, 50 Premium Economy and 44 Business Premier seats. 

Starting in December, the airline will fly the new economy seats on selected NZ5 and NZ6 on services as the new aircraft is introduced between Auckland and Los Angeles and dedicated return service on NZ1 and NZ2 between Auckland and London (Via Los Angeles) starting in April 2011 replacing 747-400 aircraft.

The airline will also retrofit its existing 777-200ER fleet from mid-2011 and by 2012 will have it on all Asian, North American and UK services. Air New Zealand's 787-9 will be delivered wit these seats starting in late 2013.

ANZ787-9Jcabin.jpg
Also worth noting, the photo below of the business class seating (after the jump) appears to be the first shot of a future 787 cabin. 

Also, as you can see in the vidcap to the right, the bottom of the windows feature the control buttons for the electro-chromatic windows, though in this particular shot they are covered with traditional window shades.

All the shots in the promotional video also appear to have been shot inside a mock up of the 787's cabin with the 18-inch tall windows and LED lighting. If nothing else, it definitely gives a first indication of what the -9 launch customer has planned for its interiors.

More photos below the fold.

Here's a completely unrelated video I uploaded last night. I filmed this is a jump seat arrival into Sao Jose dos Campos last September during my visit to Embraer.

Air New Zealand's Game Changing Seat
Eighteen time zones ahead of where I sit right now, Air New Zealand is trying to change economy class seating forever. Monday evening in the US (11 AM Tuesday in Auckland), Air New Zealand will unveil its new long-haul economy seats that may completely change how we all travel in the back of the plane. While few details are available, some have speculated that ANZ has come up with a way to offer near-flat beds on its new 777-300ER, which will enter service later this year. The seat was supposed to be introduced on the airline's first 787-9, but that isn't planned for EIS until late 2013. If this product does "change the game" so to speak, how does ANZ avoid creating a disincentive for buying a business class ticket? 

787 Post-IAW Layup
ZA001 has been in a planned post-initial airworthiness layup for maintenance and ground tests since its last flight on January 14. Program sources say the aircraft is set to return to flying by the end of the month. ZA002 is expected to rejoin the flight test shortly as well.

Boeing Earnings
The US airframer is set to release its 4th quarter and full year 2009 earnings. I'll be covering it live on Wednesday morning. Things to listen for: 747-8F update, 787 progress, early indications of Boeing's strategic thinking on 737 re-engining and new strategies for cutting production costs.

Udvar-Hazy out at ILFC? 
The Wall Street Journal reports that Steven Udvar-Hazy has been replaced by Doug Steenland (fmr. CEO of Northwest) as chairman of ILFC, the world's largest aircraft lessor. This is another chapter in the tumultuous story of ILFC's relationship with AIG, which received $182.3 billion in bailout aid from the US government over the last 18 months. Mr. Udvar-Hazy had some prophetic words for me at the Singapore Air Show in 2008: "We'll have to see if the cold that the US financial markets have caught will turn into a virus that will spread world wide."

Two years and a one massive global recession later, his words were an understatement of epic proportions. Though things may not be as they seem with this ILFC story, keep an eye out on this one to see how it develops. 

Bombardier Financing
Airbus and Boeing have teamed up (seriously) to oppose the export financing terms that Bombardier is using to sell the CSeries. Bombardier is classifying the 100-149-seat, 5-abreast, 2,950nm coast-to-coast CSeries as a regional jet, while the marketing of the aircraft suggests otherwise. The European and American airframers suggest that the favorable financing categorization gives the CSeries an unfair competitive advantage in the marketplace. Remind me again, has export financing helped Boeing or Airbus avoid production cuts? Headline: Pot & Kettle team up to call Bombardier black.

Apple Tablet
As a Mac Addict, I'm eagerly awaiting Wednesday's announcement from Apple about its future tablet. There are more rumors than facts about the mythical device, but I'm quite curious to see what it will be able to do. From a digital publishing standpoint, it may transform (insert struggling news medium here) forever. I'm in a wait-and-see mode on this one, but it could take this blog another step forward. We'll see.

Singapore Bound!
Late Friday afternoon I'll board a plane from Dulles for the first of two legs to the 2010 Singapore air show. Leg one will take me on a United Airlines 777-200(ER?) to London followed by a 5hr layover at Heathrow before switching terminals for my first flight on the A380 with Singapore Airlines (SQ317). Seeing 50K on my seat assignment and 75K on the return leg (SQ322) is downright surreal. 

Don't forget, the Twitter hashtag is #SIN10

A little more than a year after one of the most impressive landings in the history of aviation, N106US, formerly known as Flight 1549, will be on the auction block. Word on the street is that  there are some very interested buyers out there with some very creative plans for this Airbus A320. David Martin, who lives just above the site of the water landing, spent 72 hours filming time lapse video of the recovery effort to remove the submerged aircraft from the Hudson River. The result is more than a little bit impressive. Also, word to the wise, check the carfax history on this plane before making any bids, I hear that it might have some water damage.
A good friend - who also happens to be an aerospace engineer - passed these along to me this afternoon. I thought there might be a few of you out there who will get a laugh out of these. Happy Friday!
2010 Top 25 Engineer's Terms and Expressions
(What we say versus what it means) 

1. A number of different approaches are being tried.
We are still guessing at this point.
2. Close project coordination.
We sat down and had coffee together.
3. An extensive report is being prepared on a fresh approach.
We just hired three punk kids out of school.
4. Major technological breakthrough!
It works OK; but looks very hi-tech!
5. Customer satisfaction is believed assured.
We are so far behind schedule, that the customer will take anything.
6. Preliminary operational tests were inconclusive.
The darn thing blew up when we threw the switch.
7. Test results were extremely gratifying!
Unbelievable, it actually worked!
8. The entire concept will have to be abandoned.
The only guy who understood the thing quit.
9. It is in process.
It is so wrapped in red tape that the situation is completely hopeless.
10. We will look into it.
Forget it! We have enough problems already.
11. Please note and initial.
Let's spread the responsibility for this.
12. Give us the benefit of your thinking.
We'll listen to what you have to say as long as it doesn't interfere with what we have already done or with what we are going to do.
13. Give us your interpretation.
We can't wait to hear your bull.
14. See me or let's discuss.
Come to my office, I've screwed up again.
15. All new.
Parts are not interchangeable with previous esign.
16. Rugged.
Don't plan to lift it without major equipment.
17. Robust!
Rugged, but more so
18. Light weight.
Slightly lighter than rugged
19. Years of development.
One finally worked
20. Energy saving.
Achieved when the power switch is off.
21. No maintenance.
Impossible to fix
22. Low maintenance.
Nearly impossible to fix
23. Fax me the data.
I'm too lazy to write it down.
24. We are following the standard!
That's the way we have always done it!
25. I didn't get your e-mail.
I haven't checked my e-mail for days.
LAN.jpg

Santiago-based carrier LAN is set to make a major acceleration in its delivery of its first Boeing 787 after a slot swap with Japan's All Nippon Airways (ANA), say sources close to the Latin American carrier and the US airframer.

Two delivery slots from the early batch of aircraft scheduled for delivery in late 2010 and early 2011 have been reallocated from ANA to LAN, the same sources tell ATI and FlightBlogger.

According to a source at the airline, the first 787-8s were intended for delivery to LAN in 2015 after accumulating more than two years of delays.

LAN declined to discuss the change, as "there exists a confidentiality agreement with Boeing. The company will inform about this issue if and when it is appropriate".

Boeing also declined to discuss the shift as a matter of policy to not comment publicly on delivery schedules, saying that "occasionally we and our customers make order adjustments that better support their overall fleet needs, while allowing us to successfully manage our production plan".

Program sources add that the 10th and 16th aircraft built will now be delivered to LAN. ANA assumed ownership of several early delivery slots after five Chinese carriers deferred their orders in early 2009.

LAN, which selected Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines, first announced in July 2007 its intent to purchase 26 787s and lease six more, marking the largest 787 order from a Latin American carrier.

The order included 18 787-8s and 8 787-9s and an additional lease of 6 787-9 aircraft from ILFC.

The 787-9s leased from ILFC were initially intended to be the carrier's first aircraft to replace Airbus A340-300s on long-range routes. The first 787-9s were supposed to be delivered in 2011, the same year as entry into service of the type.

After two years of delays, the 787-9 will now enter service with launch customer Air New Zealand in late 2013.

As part of its contingency plan for the 787 delays, LAN purchased an additional four 767-300ER aircraft in November 2008 from Boeing and was seeking a fifth, while installing winglets on its 767 fleet to improve performance.

Airplane 7, the first production 787, is set to be delivered to ANA in the fourth quarter of 2010 following a planned 8.5 month certification campaign which began in December 2009 with the aircraft's maiden flight.

While the early batch of 787s are believed to be over target weight, which will impact performance, the company has already begun incorporating weight saving techniques into early airframes.

Program sources say weight savings on early aircraft, Airplanes 7 through 19, have focused on the wing skins.

Starting with Airplane 20, Boeing will introduce a higher MTOW of 502,500lb - up 18,500lb from the initially planned 484,000lb - to "help us to meet the expectations of our customers".

Airplane 10, which entered final assembly in September 2009 is currently in the paint hangar at Boeing's Everett, Washington facility, while the forward fuselage and wings for Airplane 16 have arrived from Kansas and Japan, respectively.

Photo Credit Boeing


Boeing confirms that Final Gauntlet tests are currently underway on the first 747-8F, the 1420th 747 built since the program's inception in 1966.

Designated RC501, the first 747-8F is undergoing a rigorous series of closed loop tests that will trick the new 747 into believing the aircraft is flying to test the response of the systems.

The aircraft is "flying" a standard B1 first flight profile, simulating potential failures that validate the levels of redundancy in the aircraft's systems.

Mark Feuerstein, chief 747 pilot, is on board the flight deck of RC501 for the test which began this morning and will span roughly 40hr of continuous tests, wrapping up in the morning hours of 23 January.

Feuerstein will be joined by senior test pilot Tom Imrich for the aircraft's first flight, which is expected early this year.

Following the Final Gauntlet the aircraft will spend about a week in post testing layup as it prepares for taxi tests and formal flight readiness review, as well as issuing of its experimental certificate by the Federal Aviation Administration. 

The milestone comes 40 years to the day after the first commercial service of the 747-100 with Pan American World Airways between John F. Kennedy International Airport and London Heathrow.

In an unrelated story, Boeing says that RC521 - the second 747-8F - will be re-registered after a painting error that assigned the same registration (N747EX) to both the first and second test aircraft.

Tuesday's bankruptcy filing by Japan Airlines (JAL) ended weeks of speculation about the airline's uncertain financial future. As part of the upcoming restructuring that will see more than 15,000 jobs eliminated, the airline is retiring its fleet of 35 747 passenger aircraft (27 -400s & 8 -400D) . 

The retirement decision came juxtaposed to the 40th anniversary of the 747's entry into service. With the help of Flightglobal's ACAS database I crunched some numbers about the 747 fleet today.

Currently, of the 1418 747s built and delivered since 1970 (RA001 was never delivered), the worldwide active fleet of 747s (all variants) stands at 810, this includes military and governmental VIP customers as well, compared to the 633 active -400s. Japan has been a vital market for this airplane over the years with 1 in 10 747-400s in the world flying with a Japanese operator today.

However, as a result of the economic downturn and a progressive retirement of older 747s, 56 -400s of all types are parked, nearly 1 out of every 10 747-400 built. 

By 2013, Air New Zealand, Air India, Singapore Airlines will no longer fly passenger 747s, all opting to replace their models with smaller 777s or larger A380s. With the coming retirement of the 37 JAL -400s, the number of parked -400 aircraft will more than double when combined with other airlines' future fleet plans. 

With surplus 747-400s available, the result will be to hasten a steady and precipitous drop in purchase and lease rates for -400s. The introduction of the new -8F and -8F will only serve to drive those prices lower and lower. There are two ways to look at this:

OPPORTUNITY
The retirement of older 747-400s means that less efficient large aircraft will be replaced with equally large or larger more efficient aircraft meaning future competitions for Airbus and Boeing to sell the A380 or 747-8I, respectively. Boeing vice president of marketing, Randy Tinseth, said at the Dubai air show in November that "ultimately we believe that market is going to pick up when airlines...this coming cycle...start to replace their older 747s."

CHALLENGE
However, with 747-400 values dropping, the incentive to purchase a new 747-8F drops (where Boeing believes the market is) making it potentially cheaper to convert passenger -400s to freighters even if they are less efficient. Steve Rimmer, chief executive for Guggenheim Aviation Partners, which recently canceled two of four 747-8Fs on order, said in October that "we've never seen this quantity of freighters before in the desert" and added that "this time we won't see the market pick up fast because there's a lot of good quality aircraft in the desert". 

Too many aircraft?
While a difficult point to concede for this aviation geek, there are perhaps too many aircraft in the world. I would add that this point extends to narrow-body aircraft (which are also dropping in value) also. Boeing and Airbus responded to staggering demand for aircraft big and small hiking production to potentially unsustainable rates. As a long term business the immediate benefits of hiking production are weighed against long term impacts (positive and negative) on future sales.

External factors are more often than not blamed for causing aerospace downturns, but I close on a much broader question: If Boeing and Airbus are solely responsible for their production rates, do aerospace industry downturns rest in their own hands if the market is oversupplied?
74740thFINTcover.jpg
40 Years of 747
In honor of the 40th anniversary of the entry into service of the 747-100 with Pan Am in January 1970, Max Kingsley-Jones and I have authored a package of features commemorating the event. During my visit to Seattle in December for 787 First Flight, I had an opportunity to sit down with Joe Sutter, who served as chief engineer for the 747 program in the 1960 who confessed to me that he "always felt the original 747 looked stubby." 

The package is a great historical overview of the program and includes a comprehensive update on the company's plans for 747-8F and -8I production.

747-8F Final Gauntlet
As the aircraft moves toward its first flight, RC501, Boeing's first 747-8F, will likely undertake its 40hr final gauntlet test beginning late this week. As part of the final gauntlet tests, the aircraft will be tricked into believing it is flying, so test engineers can see how the aircraft's systems react when flying a B1 (Boeing test flight) profile. 

JAL Declares Bankruptcy
While it won't effect day-to-day operations, JAL's bankruptcy is a major shift in the Japanese (and potentially global) airline market center of gravity. More than anything it provides more questions than answers: Does the airline stay with oneworld? How hard does Delta push for JAL to join SkyTeam? What does this mean for their first 787s expected within a year? What will the retirement of 37 747-400s mean to the residual values of the jumbos worldwide? Was Boeing counting on a 747-8I order from JAL? How does ANA respond? What does this mean for Trans-Pacific anti-trust immunity? Does this make the Japanese market more or less difficult for Airbus? 

Like I said, lots of questions.

Airbus 6000!
Emirates took delivery of the 25th A380 yesterday (A6-EDH), an aircraft that happened to be the 6000th Airbus aircraft delivered since 1974. It took Airbus 19 years to deliver the first 1000, six years more to deliver number 2000, 3000 followed in 2002. The 4000th was an A330-300 to Lufthansa in 2005 and the 5000th was an A330-200 delivered to QANTAS in 2007.

Next Steps for 787 Flight Test
With initial airworthiness in the bag, ZA001 will move toward further validation of the primary flight control system and flutter testing as flight engineers get their first ride aboard the 787. Following the flutter and PFCS testing, the aircraft will move toward high-speed stability & control (S&C) tests. For ZA001, the now cleared initial airworthiness and phase one of S&C tests were the largest single block for the first test aircraft during certification. 

Before it enters the flight test program early next month, ZA004 will spend this week demonstrating the emergency escape slides as part of the certification program. Lastly, LCF4 made it maiden flight on Friday and should join the fleet in Everett next month.
ZA001-BFIclimb_560.jpg

It has been one month since the 787 first flew from Paine Field in Everett and the program has been steadily accumulating flight test hours, having flown approximately 60hr and 56min over 15 flights (Plus one ZA002 ferry), as measured by the take off and landing notification alerts from flightaware.com.

Dennis O'Donoghue, vice president of Boeing's flight operations test & validation unit, said to Bloomberg yesterday that "We have been so happy with the progress we've made with the 787, I'm almost giddy."

This report, compiled with the assistance of Matt Cawby and numerous other Seattle-based photographers and many others reflects the progress of 787 flight test over its first month.

On its targeted 8.5 month road through through certification, Boeing expects about 4000 "deliverables" to the FAA for the certification for the 787. Mike Delaney, former chief engineer on the 787 program, says those deliverables consist of test reports and analyses, as well as pilots signing off on various aspects of aircraft handling.

Of those 4000 deliverables, 300 are strictly related to flight test, meaning that the only method of demonstrating compliance is through the flight test program. There are "some areas where the method of compliance is analysis substantiated by [flight] test so there are subtleties in there but these are strictly where it says "method of compliance is by flight test," says Delaney now vice president of engineering for airplane performance & product architecture. 

MUCH MORE BELOW
ZA002 is making its second flight this afternoon, a quick ferry flight from Boeing Field back to Everett. Randy Neville and Van Chaney will at the control of the aircraft for the quick flight north, the first since December 22nd. Here's why:
Debris forces second 787 back to Everett
Boeing's second flight test 787 is set to make its second flight, a return trip to Everett, for a thorough cleaning of its fuel tank following the discovery of foreign object debris (FOD). 

The FOD was found trapped in the fuel filter following the aircraft's 22 December first flight to Boeing Field in Seattle, Washington. 

Boeing confirms that "crews discovered very small amounts of debris" inside the aircraft's fuel tank during a planned non-operating period following first flight. Programme sources say a piece of cheese cloth left in one of the aircraft's fuel tanks is said to be responsible for the return to Everett, where the facilities to accomplish the cleaning are located.
While the issue is ultimately a "minor setback" and represents more of a headache to getting the flight test fleet up and running, Boeing adds that FOD find has prompted them to go back and look at factory procedures to ensure that this doesn't happen again.

I'll have a complete status update on the first month of 787 flight test tomorrow.
A350_CATIA.jpgWhile there are no overt red flags that came out of the Airbus press conference on Tuesday in Seville, the event marked a rhetorical course correction three and a half years out from first delivery of the A350 XWB. 

Airbus has maintained that the A350-900 set to delivery to Qatar Airways in mid-2013 following a 15-month flight test program with five aircraft. A mid-2013 (May-August) delivery puts the A350's first flight somewhere in the February to May 2012 time period, 25 to 28 months from now. 

Tom Enders, Airbus CEO, established watch areas for parts of the aircraft's design that are currently requiring additional (manpower) resources. While not a direct indication of any future issues, Enders has said the composite paneled fuselage and wing require extra attention:
We have today, more than 3000 Airbus engineers working on the program, plus another 3000 engineers with our partners. It is clear we need further ramp up in resources, we need further reinforcements, particularly in the fuselage and wing areas. We have important milestones ahead of us. Manufacturing has started, as you would imagine, as such a stage that program has a lot of challenges for us: New materials, processes, weight, schedule, just to mention the usual suspects.
Ultimately the time frame remains unchanged for first delivery, but Bloomberg/Newsweek reported that, Airbus Chief Operating Officer Fabrice Bregier said that the company has used "some of its margin" on the schedule of first deliveries.

According to the report, "challenges" have centered around "composite wings and fuselage, including systems installation and incorporating lightning strike protection."

While not entirely unrelated, Airbus has also decided to alter its design strategy for the smaller A350-800 by offering a shrunken -900 rather than differentiated structure that would've optimized the weight of the aircraft. However, Airbus has opted to have a common landing gear, wing and fuselage while offering a 6000lb higher maximum zero fuel weight 250 nm increase in range, in exchange for "a couple of percent" fuel burn penalty with the added weight.

With resources needed on the wings and fuselage design of the -900, it is not entirely unsurprising that Airbus has chosen to focus on that design first rather than turn significant attention to removing unneeded structure from the -800.

The A350-800 is a total of 10 structural frames shorter (21 feet) than the -900, with six removed forward of the center wing box and four from the aft.

Video Capture Credit Airbus
Movie Monday returns this week with a stroll down nostalgia lane and a look at the first year of service for the Boeing 707 in 1959. 50 years after it was produced, we take for granted how jet travel transformed how quickly we can move across the planet. The narrator talks of the time between points shrinking by half, making cross-country commuting a reality to "be home by dinner" on the West Coast after having lunch in New York. An act that has become a regular part of our lives in 2010 was an unequivocal transformation in how people move by the beginning of 1960.

The video also covers the flight testing of the 707-320 Intercontinental and high-speed 720, as well as the MATS 707 tasked with transporting President Eisenhower overseas.

Unfortunately, the user who uploaded this series of videos disabled embedding so I cannot post them directly here on FlightBlogger. However, I have provided the links below in five 7-8 minute parts. Definitely worth taking the time to watch today. Enjoy!
707 Year One - Part 1 // Part 2 // Part 3 // Part 4 // Part 5
The seemingly ubiquitous Liz Matzelle captured ZA001 coming home to Boeing Field after more than five hours of test flight over eastern Washington this afternoon.


It was a busy first week of the year and one of my resolutions is to make sure to do on the web posts more consistently, so here's a recap of week one of FlightBlogger on the Web:

Guggenheim cancels orders for two Boeing 747-8Fs - FlightGlobal
Guggenheim Aviation Partners (GAP) has cancelled half of its 747-8F order, the company confirms. GAP reduced its order for the new jumbo freighter by two, with two remaining 747 aircraft on order.

ANA abandons 787-3 - FlightGlobal
Boeing's orderbook for the 787-3 has dwindled to zero following a decision by Japan's All Nippon Airways (ANA) to convert its remaining 28 orders for the short-range variant to the long-range 787-8

Boeing to incorporate side-of-body mod into 787 production - FlightGlobal
Boeing received its 15th 787 centre fuselage on 5 January, marking the arrival of the last centre wing box requiring a full side-of-body modification and reinforcement that will be completed at the company's Everett, Washington facility

While the most visible part of the 787 programme is centred on the start of flight-testing the largely composite twin-engined jetliner, Boeing continues to evolve the Dreamliner's production system while tackling the challenges that lie ahead for the base of global suppliers.

FlightBlogger on Tumblr
Keeping with the 'In Beta' policy for FlightBlogger, I've added a new channel for content for the blog that I hope will really further enhance and streamline this site. I've tried for a while to pull together the disparate social media multimedia services into an integrated package while still making sure that this page is still for comprehensive written content. I've created a new page at Tumblr (http://flightblogger.tumblr.com) that allows me to record and share and upload audio, quick video, links, quotes, photos on the fly. Tumblr is designed for speed. It will be put into full effect during the Singapore Air Show early next month and we'll see how it goes.
ANA-787-3_cropped.jpg
About 23 months ago, in the midst of arguably the most chaotic period of the 787 program during the winter of 2008, Boeing quietly placed the short-range 787-3 on the back burner, shifting much-needed engineering resources toward the 787-8 and follow-on 787-9.

Since that time, the 787-3 has been on a slow descent toward joining a collection of never-built aircraft variants. That descent ended today as ANA zeroed-out the -3 order book; converting its 28 remaining short-range Dreamliners to long-range -8s.

While Boeing has not formally changed the status of the 787-3 as an aircraft for sale, it has now entered a gray area of a "market viability study" that will determine whether or not it ever gets built.

The short-range -3 was given life as a mark on a whiteboard on October 26, 2002, when Boeing gathered the strategic thinkers of the world's biggest airlines together. They were asked to label a graph, the horizontal axis was range and the vertical was seat count. Those marks eventually became the 787-8, 787-9 and 787-3.

While the attendants of the meeting were never disclosed, the airline(s) indicating a preference for the 787-3, a high-capacity, short-range wide-body, later became clear as the order book climbed toward its peak of over 900 orders, 43 of which were for the 787-3 from JAL (13) and ANA (30). In fact, when it ordered what was then the 7E7 in 2004, the -3 made up the majority of their respective orders.

In fact, the 787-3 was widely believed to be a major enticement to All Nippon Airways to serve as launch customer for the 787. When it was first launched, the 787-3 would follow just in 2010, two years behind the 787-8 set to be delivered in May 2008 as a replacement for the A300 and 767.

Though, engineers who were closely involved in the development of the 787-3 say the biggest challenge the aircraft faced was was its weight and whether enough structure could be removed to reduce the empty weight of the aircraft, while upping the seat count and delivering significant enough gains in efficiency over the shorter domestic routes. One person close to the program even speculated that a newly wingletted 767-300ER could have been extremely competitive against the 787-3.

Steven Udvar-Hazy, head of the International Lease Finance Corporation said at the Singapore Air Show in February 2008, that he preferred "another version of the 787 that is lighter, that addresses more the performance capabilities at...more the medium haul end of the market."

Regarding the 787-3, he quickly added that:
That might be a more practical product line that will have a wider application with more customers than the -3 and we're encouraging Boeing to come up with a 787 derivative to address that middle market which has wide global appeal to airlines in North America, European airlines, Middle East, China and South America and intra-Asia and US trans-con market and so forth. The -3 doesn't quite do it. It seems too heavy.
Yet, in the end, for ANA and JAL - which converted its orders to -8s in June - it all came down the non-specific timeline for when they could actually receive their first -3. Officially, Boeing never publicly committed to anything more than "The 787-3...will now become the second derivative of the airplane family."

In a statement earlier today, Boeing said it simply came down to the wishes of its very patient customer: "The 787-8 is available sooner for delivery than the 787-3 would be."

With the 787-3 now in an amorphous phase of its existence, Boeing has an opportunity to look at the 787-3 to see if it may find new life as Mr. Hazy's much desired mid-range wide-body. 

Where one door closes, another opens.

Photo Credit Boeing
A320_560.jpg

Airbus has moved closer to launching a revamped A320 family after signing agreements with CFM International and Pratt & Whitney which will lay the groundwork for re-engining the twinjet, FlightBlogger has learned.

While the scope of the agreement - which was signed within the past week - remains unclear, multiple industry sources say that this step is more technical in nature. The agreements are aimed at formally establishing specifications, performance and fuel burn requirements for such an engine, rather than any new A320 version's commercial viability. Additionally, the sources add that the agreement is a clear signal of the seriousness by Airbus to re-engine the A320.

Airbus chief operating officer of customers John Leahy said at the Dubai air show in November that "The more you convince yourself it is 2024 for the next-generation single-aisle, the more you realise you must do something with the existing aircraft."

Although Airbus did not explicitly confirm or deny such a formalized agreement exists between itself and CFM and P&W, the airframer says it "is constantly in technical dialogue with all the major engine suppliers".

P&W declined to address the existence of such an agreement, saying that "We are in discussions with all aircraft makers about the benefits offered by the [PW1000G] with its geared turbofan technology."

The engine maker adds: "Our preferred channel to market for the next generation or re-engined Airbus and Boeing single-aisle aircraft is through our successful partnership International Aero Engines (IAE). We will continue to work with our existing technology partners to bring this engine to market for our customers."

IAE says that it "continues to discuss all potential future engine developments to enhance the aircraft's performance". P&W and Rolls-Royce are major partners in the IAE consortium that offers the V2500 engine on current A320 models. CFM engines power both A320 Family and Boeing Next Generation 737s.

During the 2009 Paris air show the head of IAE partner MTU Aero Engines Egon Behle told Air Transport Intelligence that as IAE crafts its strategy for an engine to power A320 and Boeing Next Generation 737 replacements, "There are certainly some obstacles to remove." Behle noted Rolls-Royce and Pratt "do have different proposals" to narrowbody development.

The PW1000G geared turbofan engine has been selected by Bombardier to power the 100-149-seat CSeries family, as well as the 150-240-seat Irkut MS-21 and Mitsubishi's 70-96-seat MRJ.

Airbus says of its future relationship with IAE on the A320 that "our aim, as we have clearly stated previously, is that any such offering(s) should come to market via the established CFM and IAE partnerships respectively".

Airbus and P&W partnered in 2008 to test a PW1000G demonstrator under the wing of an A340-600 at the airframer's Toulouse base. While the move ignited speculation about the future application of the engine, both parties were quick to say it was not a sign of a formal plan.

While CFM denies there is a legal agreement signed between itself and Airbus, the joint venture between General Electric and Snecma says that it is in "constant negotiation" with Airbus and continues to supply the European airfamer with data for potential "study engines" for the A320.

Any offering by CFM for the A320 is almost certainly to come in the form of the LEAP-X engine, the successor to the CFM56.

The LEAP-X1C was selected in December by Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) to power the C919 aircraft, a direct future competitor to Airbus and Boeing in the 150-to 200-seat narrowbody market expected to enter service in 2016.

A December 2009 report by AirInsight concluded that "Airbus will decide to re-engine the A320, and make that announcement and engine selection early in 2010." Adding that, "We expect both LEAP-X and the P&W GTF, the latter offered through IAE, will be selected as the candidate engines."


Last month, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) selected the CFM (GE & Snecma) LEAP-X1C engine to power the C919, the nation's entrant into the 150 to 200 seat market. The selection of the next generation CFM engine gives the LEAP-X a launch customer that comes with a guaranteed market: China.

That fact alone may be the final catalyst for a major leap forward from Boeing and Airbus,  as airlines continue to call for all-new designs from both air framers.

History, while not repeating itself, is once again rhyming. The calls to replace the 737, and now the A320, are loud and clear, though top engineers at both companies believe that the gains of 20-30% efficiency sought by the airlines just aren't possible with today's engine technology.

We again hear calls about blunting the introduction of new aircraft; how either company could stop the CSeries CS100/300 and MS-21, both powered by the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engine, and Comac C919 right in its tracks with a fresh design from the American or European airframers. 

Between 1984 and 1988 when Airbus was moving beyond the A300 and A310 into the single aisle market to develop the A320, Boeing was creating an expanded 737 family with the -300 -400 and -500. 

The 1986 Northwest Airlines order for 100 A320 aircraft changed the face of aerospace, giving Airbus a significant early foothold in the US market.

Bob Alizart, executive assistant to former Airbus CEO and managing director Jean Pierson, said of the A320 in John Newhouse's 2007 Boeing versus Airbus 
"Boeing should have killed this upstart. If Boeing had produced a clean sheet of paper the A320 never would have become Airbus's bread and butter."
But coming off of the 757 and 767 development programs in the early 80s, the family of three major derivatives for the 737 was the only feasible course. 

The same calls were reiterated in 1996 when United ordered A319s, which were competing against the 737 Classics. Rather than a clean sheet design that would have been prohibitively expensive following the estimated $14 billion price tag of the 777, Boeing developed the 737 Next Generation family.

Though the Boeing strategy hardly needs any vindication stronger than the 7177 orders earned since March 1984 when the A320-100 was launched, yet Airbus has earned 6467 orders since then as well. Arguably, the competition has allowed both products to survive as long as they have, with perpetual improvements continually introduced.

Though the C919's LEAP-X selection potentially presents a unique competitive landscape for Boeing and Airbus in China. Boeing estimates China to be a 3,770 aircraft, $400 billion market over the next 20 years. More than 2,600 of those are forecast to be narrowbody aircraft.

China has also erected what the US is calling a "trade barrier" that provides products accredited for "indigenous innovation" preference in government purchases, which could potentially pose threat to Boeing when it comes to fleet acquisition for state-owned airlines. 

Once again, while the impetus for a clean-sheet design from Boeing and Airbus remains, the commercial justification for such a course is unfeasible with significant resources already devoted the 787 and A350 programs. However, re-engining the 737 and A320 to take on the C919 and (a potentially even higher-capacity) CSeries in the heart of the narrowbody market is looking like the most likely course of action.

A recent report by Air Insight concludes that a 2010 announcement of re-engining for both the A320 and 737 is virtual certainty. Though the decision to re-engine both aircraft rather than develop an entirely new type will put the 737 and A320 on roughly equal footing with their new similarly-powered Canadian, Russian and Chinese competitors rather than blunting their rise before even getting off the ground. As a result, Boeing and Airbus's market share in the 100-200-seat category - now about 88% - could slip to as low as 40% in competition with new airframers.

While China and the C919 are far from the only impetus driving a re-engining decision by Airbus and Boeing, any roadblock to accessing the Chinese market is sure to push each airframer's decision to re-engine their narrowbody cashcows that much closer.
New Wing , originally uploaded by longbachnguyen.

If you look closely, all those red marks on the ZA001's wing, flaps and engine pylon are pieces of yarn. All the computer models running on all the super computers in the land are no match for seeing it with your own two eyes in flight.

When Mike Carriker discussed the new instrumentation added to ZA001 between first and second flight, the addition of yarn to the left wing was exactly what he was talking about.

The yarn will demonstrate how the airflow moves over the wing of the 787 and validate (or challenge) the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models developed for the program.

You're probably thinking: "What the heck is Jon talking about?"

When an aircraft files a flight plan, the crew specifies what type of aircraft they're flying (C172, B788, A380, B734, A321, etc.). To provide the most information to ATC in the flight plan, crews will also include a suffix and a letter designation after the type. 

For example, an Alaska Airlines 737-400 which flies precision routes in and out of Alaskan airports would be B734/Q. The "/Q" suffix means that aircraft is capable of RNP approaches while operating in a RVSM environment for aircraft separation minimums. 

The suffix designations are specified by Chapter 5Section 1 of the FAA Aeronautical Information Manual (AIM). Also, if you happen to see an "H/" prefix (H/B772/Q), the letter designates a "heavy" call sign to the aircraft.

Here's the complete list of FAA AIM suffix codes and their significance:

SuffixEquipment Capability
 NO DME
/XNo transponder
/TTransponder with no Mode C
/UTransponder with Mode C
 DME
/DNo transponder
/BTransponder with no Mode C
/ATransponder with Mode C
 TACAN ONLY
/MNo transponder
/NTransponder with no Mode C
/PTransponder with Mode C
 AREA NAVIGATION (RNAV)
/YLORAN, VOR/DME, or INS with no transponder
/CLORAN, VOR/DME, or INS, transponder with no Mode C
/ILORAN, VOR/DME, or INS, transponder with Mode C
 ADVANCED RNAV WITH TRANSPONDER AND MODE C (If an aircraft is unable to operate with a transponder and/or Mode C, it will revert to the appropriate code listed above under Area Navigation.)
/EFlight Management System (FMS) with DME/DME and IRU position updating
/FFMS with DME/DME position updating
/GGlobal Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), including GPS or Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), with en route and terminal capability.
/RRequired Navigational Performance (RNP). The aircraft meets the RNP type prescribed for the route segment(s), route(s) and/or area concerned.
 Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum (RVSM). Prior to conducting RVSM operations within the U.S., the operator must obtain authorization from the FAA or from the responsible authority, as appropriate.
/J/E with RVSM
/K/F with RVSM
/L/G with RVSM
/Q/R with RVSM
/WRVSM

I'm very much alive and kicking and my apologies for not posting much in the last two weeks. I'm back from some much-needed time off and I'm (enthusiastically) tackling a mountain-sized to-do list I'm thrilled 2010 is now fully underway with a big year ahead (which I'll cover later this week). By the looks of the stock market, aerospace is breathing a collective sigh of relief after a rocky 2009 (Boeing up almost 4%, Embraer up almost 5%, Spirit up 3.25%, Lockheed up 2%, Northrop Grumman up 1.7%).

Here's a brief list of the items I'm working on for this month: Top 10 Aerospace Stories of the Decade, 787 Flight Test update, pre-flight preparations for the 747-8 - including an interview with Joe Sutter, a guide to the flight deck of the 787 and a structural overview of the A350 XWB. Needless to say, I'm going to be busy with the Singapore air show coming up in early February.

In the meantime, I put together a video comparing the sound of the 777 and 787 on their respective take off rolls. Last week, an Aerologic 777-200LRF and 787 ZA001 departed KPAE within minutes of one another. A close friend captured both departures from the same spot on the grassy knoll in Everett. I spliced the footage together to give an sense of the different sound each aircraft makes as it takes off.

The comparison is rough as the 787 is idling near the 777 as it takes off and the 787 has its APU running when it begins its take off roll, but the video should give a preliminary comparison of the different sounds of a Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 and a General Electric GE90-115BL. Enjoy!

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