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February 2010 Archives

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Gulfstream's second G650 test aircraft - designated T2 (N652GD) - made its first flight from Savannah/Hilton Head International airport on February 25th with pilots Gary Freeman and Scott Buethe at the controls. The aircraft reached an altitude of 37,000ft and a speed of M.80 and flew for 2h 33min.

This is the second of five flight test aircraft that will be used during the certification program and will focus on testing the aircraft's systems during the 1,800h flight test campaign. The first aircraft T1 (N650GA), has amassed more than 43h over 18 flights since it first flew on November 25.

T3, when it joins the flight test program, will focus on testing the G650's avionics, while P1 and P2 - production standard aircraft - will evaluate the cabin systems and reduced vertical separation minimums (RVSM), respectively. 

The G650 is expected to receive FAA/EASA certification in 2011 followed by first delivery in 2012.

Photo Credit Gulfstream
Boeing has just confirmed that the first flight of ZA003 will be pushed into March in order to install extra test equipment before first flight. Here's the complete statement from Boeing: 
First flight of the third 787, ZA003, has been moved into March. We've got some open work to complete on the airplane and have decided to accelerate the installation of some flight test equipment that we had originally planned to install after first flight. As a result, we're taking some extra time to get in the air but we will be able to fly more often sooner in its flight test schedule, which will be an overall benefit to the program. This is considered a typical adjustment to the flight test program and a smart move overall.
Boeing initially planned to have both ZA003 and ZA004 flying in February, but the latest estimates from program sources say that first flight for ZA003 (N787BX) is currently targeted around the middle part of March.
Republic-CS300-LR_560.jpg Today's order from Republic Airways for 40 firm and 40 options for the Bombardier CS300 is a big step forward in building the Canadian airframer's backlog for the next generation narrow-body.

Though the order does not put to rest a lingering question about the 2013 entry into service of the CS100 - who will be the launch customer? Lufthansa/Swiss will be the second customer for the CS100, with LCI to follow in 2014. Republic's first delivery wouldn't be until the second quarter 2015. Eluding Bombardier is a true launch customer to take the sixth CS100 to come off the line after the five flight test aircraft
 
Most importantly, the order provides Bombardier a first foothold into North America with this order potentially serving as the foundation for the fleets of Frontier Airlines, Midwest Airlines or even feeder fleets to Delta, United and US Airways. As a firm purchase order, Republic's selection of the CSeries differs from that of the MRJ by Trans States Holdings, which has yet to be firmed and was signed without bids from Bombardier or Embraer

Now with 90 firm orders, Bombardier is starting off 2010 strong, but the aircraft still has a ways to go to prove itself in the marketplace. Additionally, CSeries will have to fight its way forward if Airbus and Boeing re-engine the A320 and 737. In the face of what appears to be  very real competitive action by Boeing and Airbus, Bombardier will have to navigate its way through a recovering economy and a marketplace playing wait-and-see on its future options.

REPUBLIC AIRWAYS ANNOUNCES ORDER FOR UP TO 80 BOMBARDIER CSERIES AIRCRAFT 
Indianapolis, Feb. 25, 2010 - Republic Airways Holdings Inc. announced today it has signed a purchase agreement for 40 CS300 jets, part of the next-generation CSeries aircraft being developed by Bombardier. Republic also has options for up to an additional 40 aircraft. The aircraft, which will be configured in a single-cabin, with two-by-three seating for 138 passengers, including 25 STRETCH seats, is scheduled for delivery beginning in the second quarter of 2015.

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ZA004 rotated off of runway 16R around 11:45 AM from Paine Field with Heather Ross and Craig Bomben at the controls. Special thanks to Sandy Ward and Future of Flight for the video and KIRO7 TV in Seattle for the photos. TRACK THE FLIGHT

ZA004 - Registration: N7874 - Serial No: 40693 - Final Assembly: 8/04/08
With Dreamliner Four's first flight just hours away, Boeing's 787 test fleet is about to get a big boost. While this is the third 787 to fly since December 15, 2009, ZA004 is the fourth in the fleet of six test aircraft being employed for the certification program. The aircraft will be flown on its maiden flight by Captains Heather Ross and Craig Bomben.

Powered by two Trent 1000 engines, ZA004, will start its flight test program with a departure from Everett, Washington a stop at Moses Lake then on to Boeing Field where the aircraft will be based along with ZA001 and ZA002.

During its time as a flight test aircraft, ZA004 will accumulate the third most hours in the test fleet as it validates the high-speed aerodynamic performance of the aircraft along with the nautical air mile or NAMs tests for establishing the fuel efficiency of the engines. Additionally, ZA004 will focus on ETOPS testing, though the bulk of that flying will be done by ZA002 as part of the systems functionality and reliability testing.

The fully instrumented aircraft will also be responsible for conducting a flight loads survey. Frank Rasor, director of flight test for 787, says that this aspect of flight testing allows Boeing to validate their assumptions and refine their models:
This is a test where we actually instrument the airplane to actually go back and validate that we have made assumptions based on wind tunnel data, other information about what the actual load is going to be on the wing, on the tail, on the vertical surface. Then we plug those surveys, we actually instrument the airplane and go see if we are seeing those pressures or loads. The results of that test feed back to deciding "did we make the right assumptions in our model?" If not, do we have to make some small adjustments? It then leads up to the certification.
As the year rolls on, ZA004 will take part in "community noise" tests at a remote site like Glasgow, Montana - or equivalent airport - where there is very little air traffic. The test will see microphones laid out along the runway to establish the acoustic characteristics of the aircraft and its Trent 1000 engines. The same test will be duplicated on the GEnx-1B engines as well.

About two-thirds of the way through certification, ZA004 will come out of the flight rotation to have its Trent 1000s removed and replaced with the Package B engines that will provide a specific fuel burn (SFC) target within 1% of the original spec. The NAMs testing will be repeated with the new Package B engines to compare the fuel efficiency improvement.

"We have to do that test with pristine engines; engines that have not been abused in the test program," says Rasor.

Because ZA004 will be heavier than production aircraft, Boeing is looking at repeating the NAMs tests for production aircraft with the Package B engines on Airplane 20 or 22, which will be instrumented with fuel sensors and a trailing cone for accurate airspeed information, adds Rasor.

RC501 has relocated to Moses Lake after a late afternoon (38min) flight on Monday afternoon that delayed the morning departure due to minor troubleshooting on engine number one. The aircraft reached an altitude of just over FL240 and spent much of the flight conducting tests if the aircraft's flight controls. The aircraft will spend its initial airworthiness trials and flutter testing at Grant County International before transferring to Palmdale, California, at which point RC521 and RC522 will join the flight test program.

ZA001 is set to return to the sky after 2 PM PT for what is likely to be day six of flutter testing. ZA004 may commence taxi tests as early as Tuesday afternoon with first flight as early as Wednesday.

A few more details have emerged about Friday's Boeing "uncommanded loss of power" that occurred on one of the two engines. Boeing says that after the loss of power, the crew followed standard procedure and shut down the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 during the diversion to Moses Lake. Additionally, Boeing also checked all the Trent 1000 engines on ZA002-ZA004. The findings of those examinations are not known to this blogger.



And for additional trans-Atlantic comparison, take a look at the following clip of A380's flutter testing regime in 2005 that saw the aircraft accelerate to mach .96 in a dive. Initially the aircraft's wing-to-body fairing failed structurally during the test around mach .92 and had to be redesigned. It's a good example of the challenges and unknowns that continue to come along with modern flight testing.

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First (ZA004) and Second (RC501) Flights
The first 747-8F and the fourth 787 (third to fly) are slated to fly this week - we think. First thought to be taking place on Monday, there's been some speculation about taking steps to look at ZA004's Trent 1000 engines after a in-flight uncommanded loss of power during a test flight on ZA001 last Friday. ZA004 completed mini-gauntlet testing on Saturday.

For now, ZA004 will remain in ground testing until at least Tuesday, say program sources, though Boeing says that they have not set an official date for the aircraft's first flight. However, the company has said that both ZA003 and ZA004 will fly by the end of February. Capts. Heather Ross and Craig Bomben will take ZA004 on its maiden sortie when it happens.

Meanwhile, RC501 remains on the flight line at Everett while the aircraft is being prepped for its ferry to Moses Lake, which was supposed to be Saturday, then Sunday, then Monday, but is currently holding - potentially for ZA004.

KC-X RFP
The next chapter in the seemingly never-ending KC-X tanker battle is likely to come as early as Tuesday, when the US Air Force is expected to issue a formal request for proposal (RFP) to Boeing and Northrop Grumman (+EADS/Airbus). Northrop has been displeased with the discussions about the potential RFP as it doesn't make appropriate provisions for potential cost overruns, as well as the additional capability of the aircraft beyond its tanker role. If you're just joining the party now, Boeing may offer either the KC-7A7 (based on the 777-200LR) or KC-767 (based on the 767-200ERF), while EADS/Airbus will likely offer the KC-30 (A330-200 MRTT). Let's just see how this one plays out. Make sure to follow @thedewline for updates.

Colgan Hearings
The US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation is holding hearings on Thursday to look at aviation safety one year after Colgan Flight 3407, which crashed on approach to Buffalo. The aviation operations, safety, and security subcommittee will the handling the hearing and it will be interesting to see how opinions have swayed - if at all - following the Frontline investigation of Colgan's operations. A list of who will be testifying has been made public yet.

The Ancillary Art
I wanted to make you aware of a project that's been published by Miyuru Sandaruwan. Mr. Sandaruwan, who is based in Sri Lanka and is a close follower of the airline industry, wrote an  eBook on "the art" of packaging fees designed to drive ancillary revenues. Most impressively, Mr. Sandaruwan, who is 19 years old, wrote the entire presentation on his mobile phone.  It's a great example of thoughtful analysis made possible by the fall of modern publishing barriers. Definitely worth taking a look.
Another Movie Monday from the vault of historical airline footage on YouTube! This week a "Letter from an Airline Pilot" chronicling the operations of TWA circa 1947. The 23min video is an incredible historical look into the mid-century operations of the Lockheed Constellation (photos) including the production, training, flight operations and maintenance of the aircraft and the airline. No description I write here will do the video justice, it's an absolute gem. Enjoy.

Hat tip to Bradley Cooke for the find.

FA-MWH-divert.jpgStrange title for a post I know, but when ZA001 landed at Moses Lake just before 1pm on Friday after just over an hour in the air it raised some eyebrows for those of us watching Flightaware. The aircraft had filed an 8hr flight plan on Friday for flutter tests at FL300 with BFI-BFI flight plan. The first thought was that Flightaware had 'squawk'd' and missed the return to Seattle, but now it appears that ZA001 never made it back to Boeing Field on Friday.

On top of this, a company owned Cessna 208 Carvan (N208BA) made no less than five runs between Everett, Boeing Field and Moses Lake in the last two days. Related? Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, ZA001 filed a return flight plan Sunday morning from Moses Lake for a 9:45 PT departure and return to BFI.

Update 11:42 PM ET: Randy Tinseth explains the diversion to Moses Lake as an uncommanded loss in power on one of ZA001's Trent 1000 engines. According to data from Friday's flight on Flightaware, the aircraft was at FL300 heading west at just below cruise speed when the loss of power happened around 12:30 PM PT.

The first 787 - ZA001 - returned from Moses Lake Sunday morning after landing there on Friday. Our flight test pilots had touched down at the Grant County International Airport after they experienced an uncommanded loss of thrust in one of the engines...Teaming with Rolls-Royce, we determined that the issue had to do with a pressure-sensing component within the engine.

We located replacement parts and then got the parts and the right crew to Moses Lake - beginning the maintenance activity on Saturday. Later that day, we ran the engines to confirm that the replacement had been done correctly and that there were no anomalous readings. So, Sunday morning, we flew home. 

The airplane is going through the maintenance and pre-flight work that would have been done had it arrived back at Boeing Field on Friday evening. I can tell you that ZA001 will soon return to flutter testing.

Often imitated, never duplicated. Boeing's 757 turns 28 today as it marks the anniversary of its first flight from Renton Municipal Airport on February 19, 1982. Check out those crosswinds!

A tip of the hat to NYCAviation for the birthday reminder.
Some readers noted this week noted that coverage on this blog has been heavily weighted toward Boeing and they'd be right. This was the topic that brought this blog to life nearly three years ago and I am an US journalist with a responsibility for the Boeing beat for Flightglobal, so that should explain the weight in coverage on this page - along with the fact that two major Boeing development programs began flight test in just the last 60 days.

When I first transitioned to Flightglobal in November 2007, I sought to greatly expand the breadth of aerospace industry coverage while maintaining an identical level of depth like that of this blog's 787 coverage. That goal, while admittedly ambitious, was completely unrealistic as I do occasionally need sleep, and with the notable exception of The Woracle, cannot see all.

That being said, there is still a lot going on out there that this blog can't catch on a daily basis, though I will continue to strive to bring you content that you just won't see anywhere else. I'm not one to shy away from constructive criticism and I am always hoping to continually improve this blog with the help of your input. So, what would you like to see more/less of?

Please don't confuse this message for anything that could be construed as a conclusion to my detailed coverage of Boeing and its development programs. Those stories have yet to even be told and will continue to unfold over the years to come.

I know darn well that one person is not able to cover everything, but there are lots of topics out there I'm curious about.

In an effort to expand, I want to ask for your help as A LOT of you have an up-close view of the goings on around the world. What are you seeing out there? How's G650 & G250 flight test going? What about A350 design? Bombardier CRJ1000 flight test and CSeries and M170 design progress? A380 production stabilizing? What's the latest on the Comac C919 and ARJ21? What's up with the RB285 engine? MRJ? Sukhoi Superjet? New programs from Cessna and Hawker Beechcraft? Does the E-195X have a future?

There are lots of ways to find me
(Always Confidential):
E-mail: flightblogger@gmail.com | Google Voice(mail): 417-738-6429

Am I forgetting something? Let me know: Flightblogger (at) gmail (dot) com
Last we left the pair of flying Dreamliners, they had accumulated just shy of 61 hours since ZA001's first flight on December 15 and the first two aircraft had just completed initial airworthiness trials on January 15. ZA002 was parked on the Everett flight line for an aqueous wash following a FOD discovery in the fuel tank and ZA001 was beginning two weeks of planned post IAW layup work at Boeing Field. 

Through February 15, ZA001 has accumulated just shy of 98 hours of flight time on 28 total flights, while ZA002 has flown just shy of 44 hours over 16 flights.

Both have been airborne simultaneously on five separate days in the last month. Additionally, both were flying at the same time as RC501's first flight on February 8. ZA001 and ZA002 are pushing forward with more dynamic evaluations of the aircraft and its primary flight control systems as the program moves closer to Type Inspection Authorization.

Also see - 787 Flight Test Update: Month One

MUCH MORE BELOW
7478i-crop.jpgUPDATE: RC501 second flight now targeting Sunday at noon in Everett. Also, read my expanded story on the start of 747-8I production.

Boeing has confirmed that Vought has begun sub-assembly production of RC001, the first 747-8i.

The Dallas-based supplier, which is responsible for fabrication for a majority of the aircraft's fuselage, as well as tail and empennage sub-assemblies, has begun manufacturing floor beams and frames for Boeing's new passenger jumbo.

Final assembly for RC001 is expected to begin in May.

While Boeing does not disclose its BBJ customers, the first production 747-8I is widely believed to be destined for a Middle Eastern head of state.

Back in Everett, RC501, the first 747-8F, is expected to make its second flight as early as noontime on Saturday from Paine Field for its ferry flight to Moses Lake, Washington.

Photo Credit Boeing
I know, I know, too many Boeing entries, but this was just too good not to share. ISS astronaut Soichi Noguchi just sent tweeted a photo from space as it passed over Everett. Anyone else surprised that he had clear skies?

You can clearly see the factory, runway 16R/34L, Future of Flight and all of the associated office buildings and hangars around the factory. Talk about long distance airplane spotting. If you look closely, I think you can even see RC501 on the flight line. 

Now when does the ISS fly over Toulouse?

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Photo Credit Soichi Noguchi
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In September of 2008, Mitsubishi announced that Boeing would be a technical consulting partner on the development of its new 78-92 seat MRJ. The move by Boeing was an unsurprising, if not unsubtle step, to provide a major technical boost to one its largest strategic supply partners in its bid to build its own indigenous aircraft. The move was a shot across the bow of Embraer and Bombardier whose E-170/190 and CRJ700/900 are the mainstays of the sub-100-seat market. 

The marketplace for 70 to 100 seat aircraft is getting crowded with the Brazilian and Canadian duopoly rapidly receiving new entrants from Japan, Russia and China. There are very real questions as to whether or not crowded is too crowded. I asked Bombardier vp of sales for Asia-Pacific, Kevin Smith, at the Singapore air show about the prospects for the future:
Well, you're right, the market space is getting competitive the more folks that get into it. We enjoy a enjoy 50% market share as new entrants come into it with Sukhoi and Mitsubishi, you know it's going to take some of that away and basically focusing on their indigenous marketplaces which we have difficulty penetrating because of the tariff implications that prevent us from an economic basis to sell in those regions. So its going to impact the market space, but we've been in the business for a great number of years in fact and we understand the challenges going forward.
The result of Boeing and Mitsubishi's pressure on Bombardier is most clearly manifested in the development of the CSeries, the 120 to 149-seat PW1000G-powered jetliner. With sales and production of its CRJ700 and CRJ900 rapidly slowing, Bombardier (whether intentional or not) has stepped away from 70-90 seats and focused on 100 to 150 seats with the CRJ1000 and CSeries. Smith ruled out any re-engining on the CRJ700 and CRJ900 and that a geared turbofan is "probably not" suitable for a CRJ and "won't be down scalable".

Boeing's push against Bombardier forcing them up into the low end of the 737/A320 market is a strategic coup - or is it?

China, the largest single aircraft market for both narrow and wide-body aircraft in the world, is laying more than 11,000 miles of high speed rail tracks nationwide and is cutting travel times between cities like Guangzhou and Changsha - 280nm apart - from 9 hours to 2 and a half hours. This is significantly undercutting China's domestic airlines, with China Southern reportedly cutting fares to just $21 on the route. 
"The high-speed train is invincible on this route," said Tom Lin, 30, a civil servant in Guangzhou, who opted to travel by rail. "There's no doubt it's more convenient for trips to the cities along the line. Airlines can't compete with trains for the spacious seats."
With the emergence of the 78-seat Comac ARJ21-700 being operated indigenously in China, Bombardier's the prospects for further Chinese market penetration are significantly challenged. Currently only Shandong Airlines and CR Airways operate just a handful of CRJ700 aircraft. So after getting the squeeze from Boeing and Mitsubishi, what does Bombardier do? 

The PBS Frontline investigation of Colgan Air - and the US regional airlines - provides a fascinating, and troubling, look inside 52% of the commercial aircraft operations taking place in the US every year. 

Miles O'Brien references the previous six fatal commercial airline accidents in the United States, here's background information on all six:
I'll let the hour-long program speak for itself, but the broader implications of what has been created here speaks to the larger question of the broken business models that have resulted in a chronically unprofitable industry (at-large). There are the notable exceptions in profitability, but in the aerospace industry continuum of widget making all the way to aircraft operation, the farther you get from flying the airframe the higher the margins. Is re-regulation the answer? I don't pretend to have the answer, but there clearly the dynamics need to be changed in a very real way.



Apologies for taking so long to get these up, but there were 700 photos to narrow down. Here are the final 299 from Monday's first flight. The set starts with a late afternoon departure from SFO, a night time arrival into Sea-Tac, a quick visit to BFI to shoot the twins, then on to Everett for RC501's big day. Not included in this set is our mid-day look at the 747 final assembly line, which can be found here. While RC501 was out flying into clouds, Boeing invited the media to come on-board RC521, the second 747-8F. The set will also give you a unique and up-close view of the new General Electric GEnx-2B67 engines, not to mention flight line views of ZA003, ZA004 and ZA101. Enjoy!
 

The last two weeks have provided more action from Boeing and Airbus on narrow-body product development than we've seen in the last two years. Yes, Airbus and Boeing have announced new interiors and modest improvements in fuel burn to their respective single-aisle families. However, we are beginning to see the giants stirring toward leaps of 12-15% improvement in efficiency. 

The year kicked off with Airbus quietly signing agreements with CFM, Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney on establishing technical requirements for A320 re-engining, followed days later by announcement it was going to have a decision in 2010. Not to be out maneuvered, Boeing took steps to allocate R&D funding for 737 (and 777) and appointed new teams to study the future of both products.

One question that remains for Boeing is how to accommodate a larger fan for a higher bypass ratio on a new engine. It is widely believed that the most direct way to do this was to increase the height of the main landing gear. Yes, this gives Boeing a 1:1 benefit in terms of gear length to fan radius, though increasing the length of the gear is very heavy and space in the landing gear well is very limited.

According to those familiar with the plan, lengthening the 737 nose gear appears to provide the most optimized benefit, though it is not without its own challenges. A 6in increase in the nose gear yields 2in in fan diameter. Though it also requires a larger nose gear wheel well that likely requires a squeezing of the forward avionics bay.

Boeing's vice-president of marketing Randy Tinseth, who did not specify a timeline for the decision, said that the airframer has "no reason to rush" into a decision on re-engining, even with Airbus and Bombardier rapidly moving forward. John Leahy kicked it up a notch at Singapore, saying that Airbus would have a decision "ideally" by the Farnborough air show in July. Just yesterday, Boeing CEO Jim McNerney said that a decision will be made "this year" for a "mid-decade" entry into service, on par with Airbus's 2015 timeline.

Also important is who is going to be offering what engine. International Aero Engines, which currently makes the V2500 for the A320 family, says it is open to continuing its engine work with R-R and P&W. CFM is more than likely to offer the LEAP-X for both aircraft. Additionally, Boeing's McNerney hinted that the airframer will offer a second (or even third) engine choice for the 737, ending its sole-source arrangement with CFM, which it has had for more than 20 years.

Separately, let's ask a question that is central to this entire process: Why is it so hard to get 20% improvement over today's narrow-body aircraft?

For a long-range wide-body aircraft, fuel burn accounts for about 45-50% of the total cost of operating the aircraft, compared to 30% for a narrow-body aircraft. Engine technology can provide a significant reduction in fuel burn alone, but it is a smaller share of the total cost to operate a narrow-body aircraft. As a result, the airframe and engine maintenance must account for a greater share of the cost savings to deliver the kind of efficiency improvements the airlines want today.
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All Photo Credits Boeing

MORE BELOW THE FOLD
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SUBMITTED WITHOUT COMMENT

About to board the 747-8F. More to follow.

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RC501 rotated on runway 34L at 12:39 PT as the skies cleared over Everett, Washington giving Mark Feuerstein and Tom Imrich blue sky to take the first 747-8F on its maiden sortie. 

More photos to follow

THE BERM, EVERETT -- RC501 is holding outside of Stall 207 waiting for the weather to clear. Patches of blue sky are showing up, but there is no word of the hold lifting. Boeing has until 2PM PT to fly before today's windows closes. Mark Feuerstein and Tom Imrich need 1500 foot
ceilings to take off. Ceilings are holding at 700 feet at 11:26 AM.

Additionally, RC521 and RC522 will be initialed BW and JW, respectively for Brien Wygle and Jess Wallick who joined Jack Waddell on the first 747-100 flight on February 9, 1969.

Stay tuned. JO out.



EVERETT -- Well, today's the day. I'll be streaming live here periodically throughout the day, but look for my up-to-the-second updates on twitter and tumblr. First flight is set for 10:10 AM PT (1:10 PM ET, 1810 GMT) from Paine Field. It's going to be an exciting day here in Everett. Also make sure to watch the live feed from Boeing at 747-8firstflight.com.

Come along for the ride.


747-8F-RC501-night.jpgEVERETT -- The youngest Queen of the Skies is resting at the moment, preparing for its first day in the sky. This day was a long time coming, and its arrival for a long time was anything by a certainty. Much of the 1990s and early 2000s were spent trying to establish what the future held for the global icon of commercial aviation.

Perhaps paradoxically, the aircraft that is the quintessential icon of Boeing, has throughout its life been asked to play second fiddle to the other commercial programs that always seemed to take precedence. Whether it was the supersonic transport, 757 and 767, 777 or 787, the 747 was rarely, if ever, Boeing's top commercial priority. 

Joe Sutter, the 747's first chief engineer, now 88, says that getting to this point has been anything but easy:

"The 747-400 has been around for almost 20 years...[customers] wanted more than the 747, but trying to get the management to invest the billions it takes to do that, trying to get the engine manufacturers to do that has been a struggle for ten years.

"If the 747 disappeared, it wouldn't break the Boeing company, but with it there, Boeing's going to make more money, but if the 787 dissapeared, man that would a traumatic step. So you see why that happens," says Sutter.


In fact, the 747 is often believed to be the most profitable in The Boeing Company's history, however, that title goes to the 767-300ER which is being replaced by the 787.

"The fun of this game is convincing these guys up on the fifth floor, "hey keep spending money on the 47 so it will happen", he adds. "Then it finally happened. That's the name of the game."
The 747-8F owes its existence today (and subsequent delays) in large part to its composite stablemate, the 787 Dreamliner. 

"You'll never convince the engine guys to build us an engine, but the 787 gave us an engine, so we lucked out. Seeing that struggle finally end in success, that's the fun of this business," says Sutter.

Saturday afternoon's taxi tests were the world's first chance to see the worlds longest mass-produced commercial aircraft moving under its own power and out of the aircraft and berm-obstructed view of the flight line.

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RC501, the 1420th example of the 747, which will go by Boeing 501 Experimental for its flight test program and is expected to rotate around 145 knots from runway 34L, the same one used by RA001 in 1969. Sutter will be standing at the 4,000 foot marker at 34L as the -8F makes its takeoff roll.

February 8, 2010 is a date that should not go without note. In fact, the milestone comes one day shy of the forty-first and twenty-first anniversary of the first flight of the 747-100 and introduction into service of the 747-400 with Northwest Airlines, respectively. Boeing will pay homage to the first pilot of the 747, Jack Waddell, with the inscription of his initials - JW - on the nose landing gear door.

Though as much as the 747 requires a reflection of the road it took to get here, Boeing's attention is very much pointed toward the future. But will the 747-8 family be the last in the bloodline of the matriarchy?

"I think there's at least one more step," says Sutter. "If you look at the -400 version, it lasted about 15 years and I think the -8 will last about that long. The airplane can still be stretched and there will be even better engines available. To stretch it more though, probably needs a bigger wing, which is costly, but there's actually been wind tunnel tests, analysis on a bigger wing, it will not be a very big unknown as to how to re-treat the wing, but it's money. And so it's when the market wants it."

First Photo Credit Boeing

The end is in sight. The last of three flights to Seattle is getting
ready to board shortly. This 757-200 (N586UA) will take me up the
Pacific coast to Seattle on United 89. I'm officially fried.

That being said, 747-8F has been running up and down Runway 16R & 34L
all day getting ready for first flight on Monday. RC501 will undergo
final pre-flight checkouts Sunday along with a full team pre-brief
before the big day Monday. Once I get to Seattle (and have a working
laptop again) I should be able to provide a better overview of what's
ahead for 747-8F, not to mention a wrap up of Singapore.

Booking a last minute flight to Seattle has landed me in seat 24D on
board this United 777-200ER (N294UA) to Seattle on flight 955. Going
to be 11 hours to the west coast from here and the Grassy Knoll in
Everett cannot come soon enough. Catch you Stateside. FlightBlogger out.

Greetings from seat 75K on the upper deck of Singapore Airlines A380
9V-SKC! With the massive disruption about to befall Washington, DC
with the arrival of two feet of snow, my route back to the US has
changed considerably. More importantly, with 747-8F first flight as
little as four days away, I'm bound for Seattle! My routing takes me
to London first (as was part of my original itinerary) and then to San
Francisco aboard a United 777-200ER, followed by a final leg to
Seattle on a 757-200. Yes, I know that's 12,000 miles of flying the
wrong way to the west coast from southeast Asia, but the disruption
caused by the weather in DC only allowed me to alter my UA flight as
my SQ leg was booked separately and there was no change
fee...etc...etc. Either way, I should be in Seattle by Saturday
evening. It's going to be a long ride. Next stop London...in 15 hours
and 30 min.

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The Flightglobal iFDN team has the Singapore air show covered with the second edition of our interactive daily. Also, check out a video wrap up Siva Govindasamy and I did a the end of day two (below the fold). There were no commercial orders through day two in Singapore, as the discussion turned once again to the re-engining of the A320 and 737, while on the defense side, Joint Strike Fighter was making headlines.
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One day before the forty-first anniversary of the first flight of the 747-100, the latest iteration of Boeing's jumbo jet is set to take to the skies for the first time on its maiden sortie.

The first flight window opens on February 8, 2009 at 1000 AM PT (1800 GMT) and will see the aircraft - designated RC501 - take off from runway 34L at Paine Field at Boeing's Everett, Washington facility.

The flight, unlike the 787, will return to Everett after Mark Feuerstein and Tom Imrich spend three to five hours flying over Washington. During the initial airworthiness trials, the aircraft will be based at Grant County International Airport in Moses Lake, then will transfer to Palmdale, California when RC521 and RC522 start flying.
That being said, as I write this I'm still in Southeast Asia due to be back in Washington, DC (via London) on Saturday afternoon. Though Mother Nature could not care less about my travel arrangements and plans to deliver 12-20 inches of snow to the DC area on Friday and Saturday making my East Coast return a pretty big open question. I'm currently trying to establish the best (time and cost effective) route to Seattle that may have to bypass DC altogether. Needless to say, it's a question that needs to be answered shortly.
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At the Dubai air show in November we got a first glimpse at Bombardier's M170 product, its answer to the Gulfstream G650 in the long-range large-cabin business jet market. The aircraft is widely rumored to be set for its public debut at EBACE in Geneva in May. During Bombardier's briefing today I had an opportunity to ask David Dixon, head of Asia-Pacific for Bombardier business aircraft about what the future holds for this mystery aircraft. Mr. Dixon didn't show his company's hand, but certainly stirred the pot.
Jon Ostrower: Can you talk about the future potential for the M170 product you're looking at to take on the G650 as a clean sheet design and where that stands and when we can hope to hear more about it?

David Dixon:
There isn't a new program launched at this point. That said, Bombardier has launched 25 airplanes since 1989, so we're always watching the market and responding to what the market needs.

I put it to you this way, take a look at what that product is [G650] it's actually playing catch up, it's not a bigger fuselage cabin, it has other features, it goes a bit further but it is just coming up to the Global Express so I think they're [Gulfstream] is trying to come along side, rather than overtake.

But watch this space, we're always looking at the market and we've maintained our investments historically, so I would say there will be new airplanes whether it's going to be competing with the 650 or any others, I don't know.
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Never content to rest on our laurels, the Flightglobal team has stepped out on the edge of digital publishing once again bringing you a perspective of the Singapore air show never before seen. Our first issue of iFDN, or interactive Flight Daily News, is the collaboration of a small team here in Singapore and in London at the Flightglobal headquarters. Our premier issue has just been published and I invite you to explore its interactive pages seeing all the multimedia resources we've brought to bear. We'd love to get your feedback on the final product.
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SINGAPORE -- During his Asia Pacific market briefing, I asked Boeing vice president of marketing, Randy Tinseth, about the future of an oft-discussed mid-range 787 and it's potential for the future. The exchange yielded an interesting answer:
Jon Ostrower: Looking beyond the 787-3, your customers have indicated a need for a medium range 787, somewhere in the trans-continetnal 3,000 to 4,000 mile range, do you see an opportunity now take the 787 to adapt it to that market?

Randy Tinseth:
So the question is are we going to design a 787 with the range of a 757?I'll tell you, it's not in the plans today, but over the last week we did some changes at Boeing and one of those changes is we brought Mike Bair, who was my boss, to now lead our single aisle development efforts.

That type of airplane, whatever it might be, would fall under the Mike Bair regime as we go forward.
No plans at this date, do we have customers that our interested in an airplane that has the same capacity and range as a 757? Yes. We sold 1000 of them. There is some need out there, the question is when do we build that, can we build that, does it make economic sense for us and for our customers?
The last 757 rolled off the Renton line in 2004 and was "replaced" by the 737-900ER which has a 700nm and 21 seat shortfall in a two class configuration compared to the 757-200. Boeing classifies the single aisle 757 nominally as a 201-seat aircraft in a two class configuration with a range of 3,900nm. 

Will the replacement for the venerable narrow-bodies take the form of a two model solution spanning the 125 to 200 seat range? Or will Boeing surrender the sub-150-seat market to its Canadian, Brazilian, Japanese and Russian competitors, building a single type optimized to ~180-seats stretched to meet the demands of today's 737-800 through to the 757-200?

The game just got interesting.
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SINGAPORE -- On Monday morning, Airbus invited journalists on-board the A330-200F here in Singapore. The aircraft on display here at the show is one of two -200Fs taking part in the flight test campaign that will culminate in first delivery to Etihad Crystal Cargo around July. Didier Lenormand, head of freighter marketing for Airbus, took us through the Pratt & Whitney powered aircraft.

I had a chance to talk to him about the prospects for an A330-300F and its market potential. He shared with me that a launch decision on the -330F would come later this year and would see retiring A330-300 passenger aircraft converted to medium-haul freighters around 2013 or 2014. Lenormand says that a cargo integrator has already expressed great interest in a conversion program. That quickly narrows down the possibilities for a customer: UPS, FedEx, TNT and/or DLH. 

We also discussed the prospects of an A350 freighter, which he said is currently in the concept phase for a 2017/2018 entry into service, but made a specific point of discussing the challenges of mounting a cargo door on a composite fuselage compared to an aluminum fuselage. He was unsure whether or not both 787 or A350 has the potential of becoming a new-build or a converted freighter later in its life. He specifically cited managing the load paths of the composite material as the primary challenge for designing a new-build freighter out of a composite fuselage.
"It will be interesting to see how 787 gets a door on a purely composite structure. Because first, it's a major change to an airplane even to design a door on a new build airplane. It's a big change because you have all these openings there where you need to reallocate all the stress to the structure, because you generate in the structure of the plane, and in the integrity of the aircraft, a weakness. So, we have see how those are going to do for new build."
Boeing said in May 2008 that it is "ready for a 787 freighter" and requirements for such an aircraft were placed into the initial design of the aircraft. Lenormand's comment certainly illuminates what Airbus believes its own challenges are for developing an composite fuselage freighter sometime in the next decade.

MANY PHOTOS BELOW THE FOLD
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It's 82 F degrees here with 89% humidity and I think my shoes started melting while walking the static display this morning. I've posted about 142 photos from the show so far, so feel free to take a look at those. We've got another busy day ahead here with briefings from Boeing, Mitsubishi, Piper, Cessna and Gulfsteam coming up. Keep an eye on our Singapore air show portal page for all the Flightglobal coverage from here at Changi.

There are a lot of us here at #SIN10, so keep an eye on these Twitter feeds: @flightblogger, @sivag, @flightglobal, @flightdoyle and @cockburnb. There's even more coverage on Tumblr too.
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SINGAPORE -- Roaming the display floor while it's still being set up one of my perennial air show rituals. Walking amongst the organized chaos as the show is set up often yields interesting observations on the products on display for the week. At China's Comac stand, the ARJ21 and C919 are prominently displayed in company colors. The ARJ21 even includes a cutaway fuselage to reveal the interior arrangement of the five-abreast economy seating and four-abreast first class.

As you look to the back of the aircraft, you'll notice the gray outline of the rear exit. Curiously, it sits directly next to the inlet of the aircraft's General Electric CF34 engines. I'm no expert on aircraft safety, but common sense tells me that in the event of an emergency evacuation, waiting until the engines have sufficiently spooled down might not be the most realistic option. Comac said just last week that it wants to see FAA approval for the ARJ21. I would have to believe that emergency evacuation is going to be close to the top of the list of items the FAA wants to discuss with Comac.
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787-9missingwindow_560.jpgSINGAPORE -- Boeing has brought a model of the 787-9 to the Singapore air show, the first time it has had the stretched Dreamliner on display at its stand. The size of the model caught my eye instantly, though the most notable part of the scale model is on the forward fuselage and an inexplicably missing window. 

The 206ft 1in long 787-9 gets its additional length from elongations of Sections 43 and 46 in the center fuselage. The stretch of Section 43 adds five windows in front of door two. Just as on the 787-8, the 787-9 has a missing window at the point of the join between Section 41 and Section 43. However, the model on display here in Singapore has a second missing window on the 41 Section as you can see above.

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I checked the most recent rendering of the 787-9 which appears on the Etihad order announcement from July 2008 and it too is missing that second window on Section 41. The latest airplane characteristics document put out by Boeing in December shows only one window missing from the forward fuselage. 

The latest airplane characteristics document put out by Boeing last December shows the window very much on the aircraft (right), which appears to have disappeared on the model here at the show. The plot thickens.

It seems somewhat inefficient to go from a sectional stretch to a plug between Sections 41 and 43, turning one fuselage join into two. I thought it best to open this question up to everyone. Where has that second window gone?  Which is it: window or no window?