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March 2010 Archives


On Sunday afternoon a JetBlue Airbus A320 (N646JB) departed JFK for Long Beach. The aircraft later returned to JFK after the airline announced that the aircraft had hit birds on climb out. That was later updated to hail, and later again diagnosing the cause of the early return as a tail strike on departure from runway 22R.

Sometime between the announcement of birds and the tail strike, the hail was the official story and it reminded me something Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Jim Albaugh, said during the media roundtable two weeks ago week. He mentioned that composites scaled up much better than they scaled down. I asked why that was and if it was related to the pace of manufacturing. I was surprised to find out it had more to do with hail and other impacts. Here's his reply:
It's really not the ability to build. Composites are very strong, and we have sized the composite wing of the 787 to have the strength necessary to lift the airplane, but also resist impact - hail, mechanical impacts - start scaling it down and you have to have the same thickness for a smaller airplane that you have on a bigger airplane, not because of the stresses caused by lift, its really the impact of hail, equipment impacting the wings, you really don't get the efficiency scaling down right now, you get the efficiency scaling up.
In a high cycle environment where the aircraft is on the ground more frequently during the day being serviced, loaded and unloaded for flight, the chances of ground service equipment hitting the airframe goes up. It sheds some interesting light about the challenges for designing the future narrowbody replacements.

It leads me to a broader follow up for discussion here. How does alumimum scale in comparison to composite? At what size airplane does aluminum become less efficient? How does hail and ground equipment impact play into this?
On Tuesday morning, I'll start a two day visit to Pratt & Whitney in Hartford, Connecticut. The first day is a day-long course on engine technology called Engines 101. The course is a primer on engine technology and the underlying fundamentals of powering aircraft, rotorcraft and spacecraft. One way to learn more about how engines work is to learn about what happens when they don't. This week's Movie Monday, Turbofan Jet Engine Failure Recognition, takes a close look the conditions and pilot response to troublesome engines. The training film runs 20min. Enjoy!

ultimate-wing.jpgBoeing has completed the 150% ultimate load test on the 787 static test airframe - ZY997 - inside the 40-23 Building of the company's Everett factory, the company confirms.

Boeing says it did not exceed 150% loading of the wing during Sunday's test, which saw the composite wings flexed to a height of 25ft.

Photo Credit Boeing (click for larger)

The first General Electric GEnx-1B powered 787 - ZA005 (N787FT) - was moved from Building 40-24 to the flight line on the evening of Thursday, March 25. While it might not be evident from this angle, the GEnx-1B is about 8in longer than the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 (cowling to cone) and sits about .8in lower.

Video Courtesy Matt Cawby
LAN_560.jpgLAN Airlines has confirmed that it plans to accelerate delivery of its first 787 from 2014 to the second quarter of 2011. 

This page reported in January that LAN assumed two delivery spots from All Nippon Airways. The Santiago-based airline will take delivery of Airplanes 10 and 16, previously allocated to ANA. Airplane 10 is currently parked on the Everett flight line, while Airplane 16 is in final assembly inside Building 40-26. The airline will receive a total of 10 787-8s on its accelerated delivery pace that was initially supposed to commence in 2014.

LAN now joins ANA, RAM, JAL, Air India, China Southern, Ethiopian, Qatar and Continental on the list of customers who are expected to receive 787s in 2011.

Photo Credit Boeing

Boeing is investigating an unexpected buffet in the inboard flaps of the 747-8F, a design issue that may prompt a costly redesign and put significant pressure on the flight test schedule.

The buffet was first discovered following the first flight of the 747-8F on February 8th, when the aircraft extended its flaps to the maximum setting of 30 with the landing gear fully extended, say program sources.

Two independent program sources say landings with flaps set to 30 are being avoided until the issue is addressed.

Boeing confirmed the flaps 30 buffet, saying: "It is a discovery we are addressing. We expect to have discoveries during the tests and we then address them in due course. This is the nature of testing. It is the fundamental reason why we conduct a thorough flight-test program. You find issues and resolve them."

The buffet, which has been described as "very apparent", has been traced to disruptive air flow coming off of the outboard landing gear doors.

Boeing ruled out a problem unique to RC501, the first 747-8F, as the same flap buffet was duplicated on RC522's March 15th first flight.

The second 747-8F test aircraft, RC521- the third to fly - made its maiden flight on March 17th.

The flaps on the 747-8F are one of the major aerodynamic changes incorporated into the latest version of Boeing's jumbo jet, with the outboard flaps single-slotted and inboard double-slotted.

By comparison, says one program source, the 747-400's flaps were triple-slotted allowing turbulent air to pass through; however, the single and double-slotted flaps provide "a lot more surface to cause a turbulent layer to form".

Unexpected structural buffet on aircraft surfaces can be common during flight testing, though the solution may vary from vortex generators to redirect the airflow or even a complete re-design of the disruptive part.

During the 777's flight test program in 1994, Boeing found the 777 discovered the aircraft's nose landing gear doors buffeted wildly when opening and closing at speed, prompting the installation of metal baffles in the nose landing gear well to redirect the airflow.

Boeing has devoted one of the three 747-8F test aircraft to addressing the flap buffet.

On March 22nd Boeing began flying RC522 with the outboard landing gear doors removed to assess the impact at the flaps 30 setting. The early flight tests confirmed that the source of the buffet was disruptive air flow from the landing gear doors. On March 23rd, RC522 flew with the upper portion of the outboard gear door re-attached.

Boeing is considering several solutions to the problem. One option involves reducing the flap extension to from 30 to 27. However, decreasing the maximum flap setting could raise the landing speed of the 747-8.

The airframer has ruled out installing vortex generators on the inboard flaps to redirect the airflow, program sources say. The over-wing emergency escape slides on the 747-8I passenger variant could tear on the vortex generators.

The final impact of the 747-8F flap buffet is yet unclear. Sources say that without a final low-speed configuration, the aircraft cannot conduct community noise evaluations.

While RC522 is assigned to resolve the flaps 30 buffet, RC501 conducted variable center of gravity stalls. RC521 remains in post-first flight layup at Boeing Field.

Boeing is targeting the fourth quarter for certification and first delivery of the 747-8F to Luxembourg-based Cargolux, following a 1,600h flight test period and 2,100h of ground testing.
ZY997-2Ccondition.jpgUPDATE 5:36 PM ET: Boeing confirms that the ultimate load test is scheduled for Sunday, March 28th in the 40-23 Building of the Everett Factory. The company says that "testing is dynamic" and that March 28th date could change, adding that "We are not currently planning on breaking the wing."

4:37 PM ET: Boeing is planning to flex the wing of the 787 static test airframe (ZY997) to 150% of limit load on March 28 as part of the ultimate load structural test of the aircraft's composite primary structure, according to a company source. No word yet on whether or not the wing will be flexed to destruction like on the 777 program in January 1995.

The Federal Aviation Administration requires aircraft structure to withstand four seconds at loads of 150% of what the aircraft would ever experience in service. Tests that will build toward the ultimate load condition began on February 8th, says Pat Shanahan, vice president of airplane programs for Boeing.

Photo Credit Boeing
ZA003-FF-Eclipse_700.jpg

Also See: 787 Flight Test Updates - Month One & Month Two
With three months and seven days since the 787's December's first flight, four Dreamliners have taken flight, accumulating roughly 360hr of flight time. Boeing is moving into the heart of its flight test program after completing both flutter and ground effects testing, with Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) by the Federal Aviation Administration expected by month's end. 

There's been much discussion about the rate of accumulation of flight hours and whether or not the 787 flight test fleet is flying enough to meet the pace for a fourth quarter entry into service. Flight test hours, while the gauge offered by Boeing on 787flighttest.com, may not be the most accurate representation of the progress of the program. Frank Rasor, director of flight test operations for Boeing, explained last year that simple division will not yield a proper measurement of progress:
The other thing, if you did the math, when we talk about 7000 hours when you add up the ground test and flight test, and that adds up to longer than the flight test duration, if you just did testing. Well, there's a tremendous amount of concurrency in the test, so one test flight might be checking off 5-6 hours of written test objective. You can't take that math and divide by 24 and 31 because you'll get the wrong answer.  
Though month three of 787 flight test did provide a bit of clarity on the pace of hours being accumulated. Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Jim Albaugh, said on March 9th that the program had used some margin built into the flight test program, but declined to specify how much. Albaugh traced the margin use to slower than expected turnaround time and a steeper learning curve.
We did burn a little bit. And, really, what it was-- It was really two things - getting the efficiency on the flight test program up. Right now, it's above where we wanted it to be. And the other thing is getting the turnaround of the airplanes, so we can get the hours in the airplane each and every day. And I think we've been able to address that. Again, a little slow in getting up to the learning curve. I think we're there right now. Last week, we had three airplanes up simultaneously. And I think, at the end of this month, we get our certificate, which will allow us to bring the flight engineers-- to bring the FAA onto the airplane and to really get into a lot of testing. So that should happen by the end of this month. 
When Boeing mapped out its 787 flight test plan, it originally targeted TIA - the official commencement of certification - about two months after first flight. Program sources say that TIA was planned for late February. Albaugh's March 9 assessment places TIA at the end of the month, placing Boeing about a month off of its anticipated pace. Another source says that TIA continues to be paced by the completion of the Wedge V5.5 software testing.

Month Three 787 Flight Test Update continued below
It is not without a touch of irony that today's Movie Monday (planned severals weeks ago) falls during the British Airways cabin crew strike. The week's edition, titled A Tale of Two Jumbos, tracks eight days in the life of two British Airways 747-200 (G-BDXGG-BDXE). The film begins as XG is being towed into a maintenance hangar at Heathrow at the same time XE is being prepared for departure to Johannesburg via Nairobi. The Heathrow to Johannesburg route was the first in the world served with a jet aircraft in May 1952. The operations of the two aircraft takes you behind the scenes of British Airways in the 1980s both inside the hangar and on routes across the planet.

On a personal note, a sistership of XG and XE, G-BDXO was the first 747 I ever photographed with a disposable camera as it sat at Dulles Airport, which ended its life with the airline in Paithani World Tail colors from India.

A Tale of Two Jumbos is presented in three two parts totaling about 27min. Enjoy! 

**The original files were removed from Youtube but were re-posted in two parts.
I had an opportunity on Wednesday to participate in an hour-long media roundtable with Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO James Albaugh, that turned into a wide-ranging conversation about the future of the company's commercial aircraft business. In addition to 737, 777 and 787, we discussed the future of the tanker and the potential for an ITAR line for the 767, production rates, China's capability as an aircraft manufacturer, the future of the relationship with SPEEA and IAM, engine exclusivity and the future of Charleston.

The complete recording is at the bottom of the page.

737RE
Somewhat unsurprisingly, the conversation was dominated by the on-going debate about re-engining the 737. While Boeing's options remain unchanged - Re-engine the 737, keep the status quo or new build a new narrowbody - Albaugh offered an interesting insight into the methodology the advanced product development teams are going through right now.

Albaugh called the decision a "complex algorithm" that required the right balance and understanding of the new engine/airframe capability and reliability when matched against existing Next Generation and Classic 737s, like in the case of Southwest Airlines. 

Perhaps most notably, he discussed the Boeing tendency toward the "requirements creep", which is to say, the addition of new capabilities that serve to drive up the development cost of the aircraft. (Full Story)
"You've got to watch out for the requirement creep. Our engineers would love to put every bell and whistle on this airplane that they know of, we have to resist that," says Albaugh.

"I will do everything I can to reduce the requirements creep, so it doesn't become an equivalent of a major change to the aircraft, and we certainly don't want it to become a new airplane. When we do a new airplane we want to bring the right technologies to it, which will really give us a leap over what we've built today."
777EW
Toward the end of the interview, I asked about the incremental improvements coming to the 777 over the next few years. Mr. Albaugh mentioned the increases in thrust for high altitude airports and the 5,000lb increase in the maximum zero fuel weight of the aircraft, the equivalent of 20-25 more passengers. In addition, he referenced "extending the wing" of the 777 as one option being shown to customers. Company sources say that the increased span, referred to as the 777EW (Extended Wing), could be in service with airlines as early as the fourth quarter of 2012. (Full Story)

787IGW
While it has not received a different designation beyond the 787-8, Airplane 20, the first major production blockpoint to incorporate weight savings and significant design changes is a few weeks away from beginning final assembly in Everett. Albaugh discussed the early flight test data coming out of flight test and the prospects for future performance of the aircraft:
Based on everything that I've seen, I feel very confident that we'll be able to meet the guarantees that we've given the airlines. Are the first few airplanes going to meet all the guarantees? No. We understand that. I think that's pretty consistent with prior new airplanes we've delivered. 

As we get into airplane 20 and beyond, and have further block changes, I think we'll be able to meet the guarantees. At some point we'll take all the things we've done to the -9 and roll them back into the -8. I think we can get this thing...below the weight guarantees that we've made to people.
Airplane 20, which will be the first 787 for JAL, does have an increased maximum takeoff weight from 484,000lbs to 502,500lbs, which should restore some of the payload and range capabilities of the aircraft. Albaugh did not specify exactly what new features are part of the Airplane 20 blockpoint, but the Airbus Dossier asserts that the aircraft will have a revised airframe, strengthened outboard wing, center wing box, wing leading edges, main landing gear well and center fuselage, as well as enhanced maneuver load alleviation (MLA). 

You can listen to Wednesday's complete 61min-long interview with James Albaugh below. The recording starts just after I asked him if 787 and 747-8 are going to be visiting the Farnborough Air Show in July.


RC521 (N5017Q), the second 747-8F test aircraft and third to fly, lifted off as Boeing 521 on its maiden flight from Paine Field at around 3:30 PM PDT. The aircraft will stop at Moses Lake before completing its first test flight and ferry to Boeing Field south of Seattle.

Special thanks to the Future of Flight for the video.
July's Farnborough Air Show is likely to feature a pair of new Boeing aircraft, says a report by Andrew Doyle, Flightglobal's head of content. Naturally, a visit by 787 and 747-8F is dependent on the state of the flight test programs, but there's certainly a strong desire to bring one or both of the aircraft to this summer's show.
The 787, which had its long-delayed first flight in mid-December, could spend as long as a day and a half at the show, marking the all-composite twinjet's first appearance at an international air show, say industry sources familiar with the plans.
I would imagine that the two most likely 787 candidates to visit Farnborough would be ZA001 or ZA003. The fully branded ZA001 would be a good billboard, but as it is set to accumulate the most flight test hours of the fleet of six, it will likely be preoccupied with testing. ZA003 and its outfitted interior, however, would probably make for better marketing. That being said, this is pure speculation on my part and Boeing might bring ZA100 or ZA101 as to not interfere with the test fleet.


Air-Berlin_560.jpgSince last summer, Air Berlin has been rumored to be a likely candidate for canceling part of its 787 order. Today, the German carrier announced it has canceled 10 of 25 firm 787s it had on order, as well as an additional 5 options.

The cancellation reduces the backlog to 866 aircraft from 57 customers. Ten 787s for Iraqi Airways (Republic of Iraq), an unidentified 787-9 customer and United's order for 25 787-8 were added to the 840 orders that Boeing held at the time of first flight.

While never a good thing, let me suggest a different way of thinking about cancellations. 

For 787, they might actually be a good thing.

Jim Albaugh's comments from JP Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference on March 9th gives an interesting insight on why this might be the case:
I think the last issue on the 787 and one we're working very, very hard is profitability. We've made a significant investment in this airplane. And, while it's profitable, it's not profitable enough to justify the kind of investment that we made.
If 787 profitability concerns are at the forefront of Mr. Albaugh's thinking, a cancellation could provide an opportunity for Boeing to re-negotiate prices with existing customers that want to move up in the delivery stream, while making way in the backlog for better pricing with future customers. 

Nearly 75% of today's backlog was booked before the program announced its first delay in October 2007. All aircraft that were sold before that point worked under the assumption that production of all three 787 models would be leaving the factory at a rate of 10 aircraft per month by the end of 2010. That was a very different environment to evaluate the price of a 787 than it is today after two years of delays and major changes to the supply chain.

With 787 production now underway, Boeing now has a much better sense of what it costs to build the composite jetliner in the context of its already "significant investment" than it did in July 2007 when the Air Berlin order was first placed. Despite a shrinking backlog, any relief from the weight of that investment in terms of pricing new aircraft orders should probably be seen as a net positive.
This week's Movie Monday takes an early 90s look at the General Dynamics F-111 Aardvark. After watching the final public displays of the Royal Australian Air Force F-111s in Singapore in February, I was interested to delve into the history of this aircraft. 

While not a perfect parallel, The F-111 Aardvark was derived from a similar philosophy that gave life to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Create a single fighter platform that can leverage common capabilities across different military services. In this case, the F-111A was developed for the US Air Force and the F-111B was developed for the Navy. However, increased weight and design changes eventually caused the cancellation of the Naval variant.

The five-part hour-long episode of Wings will give a solid history into the novel design features and operations of the Aardvark in Vietnam, Libya and the Gulf. Parts two through five are after the jump. Enjoy!

In addition, this post was optimized with the new Apture 2.0 which you may have already noticed. The new features included the branded search bar at the top of this page. Try highlighting F-35 Joint Strike Fighter or any other text and click 'search' to see some of the new 2.0 features.


ZA003 - Reg: N787BX - Serial No: 40692 - Final Assembly: April 29, 2008
From the outside, ZA003 will be difficult to distinguish from the four flight test aircraft painted in the light flight test colors. What makes ZA003 recognizable is not its exterior, but its interior. As future passengers on the 787, ZA003 will spend the rest of the flight test program focusing on the most visible elements to the flying public. 

The aircraft, powered by two Trent 1000 engines, made its first flight from Paine Field today, March 14th, with Capts. Ray Craig and Mike Bryan at the controls. The aircraft landed at Boeing Field at 2:01 PDT after a 3h and 6min spin in the skies around Washington State. 

Its racks of instrumentation are sandwiched in between two sections of nine-abreast seating, totaling 135 unremarkable economy seats with teal and blue headrests, as well as overhead storage bins running the length of the cabin. While unremarkable, these are for Boeing's test purposes, not the seats selected by each individual airline. 

The third 787 flight test aircraft, which will accumulate the fewest number of test hours of the Rolls-Royce-powered test fleet will evaluate the passenger environment, including a complete survey of the interior noise generated by the aircraft's systems and engines. Other tests will include tests of the aircraft's flight deck avionics, as well as electromagnetic effects and high-intensity radio frequency response testing.

ZA003 also includes lavatories, forward and aft crew rest areas, electro-chromatic windows and galleys, as well as galley and cargo cooling systems that are not installed on other test aircraft. The aircraft will also test the smoke penetration of the cabin and flight deck in the event of a fire.

Additionally, the minimally instrumented ZA003 will take part in the roughly 300h of Extended Twin-Engine Operations (ETOPS) testing with functionality and reliability testing (F&R) of the aircraft systems. 

Included in every 787 cabin will be a standard zonal drying system to remove moisture that collects in the crown and cargo area of the fuselage as a normal part of flight operations. After each flight some of that moisture will be absorbed in the insulation blankets and may add as much as 500lbs to the weight of the aircraft, increasing fuel burn. 

I've received about a dozen emails this week asking me what ZA004 has been up to since its February 25th first flight. Here's the latest:

After its ferry flight to Boeing Field, the aircraft has had additional instrumentation installed and has spent this week acting as a testbed for the Wedge V5.5 "service-ready" software load, which includes updates to the flight control module (FCM) which holds the fly-by-wire software and control laws.

Boeing has been doing "regression testing" to tease the last bugs out of the system since Wednesday, March 10. The software has been primary pacing item as the aircraft heads toward Type Inspection Authorization expected to occur by the end of the month. The aircraft should be flying again around Monday, followed by a stretch of ground testing then transition to Victorville for engine tests.

Here's my complete story on ZA004, first flight information on ZA003, and the latest V5.5 software being tested.
Service-ready 787 software tested ahead of TIA
Boeing is testing a service-ready 787 software load as part of its final steps toward the US FAA Type Inspection Authorisation (TIA), clearing the way for the commencement of the aircraft's formal certification campaign.

Boeing is using ZA004, the fourth flight test aircraft, as a testbed for its latest 'service-ready' software load to present a "conforming article" to the FAA to begin flight tests for certification, the company confirms.
Also, I'll have a complete month three 787 flight test update on (or around) March 15th, along with a "Better Know a Dreamliner" post about ZA003 before first flight on Sunday.

Photo Credit Andrew Sieber
737RS.jpgOnce upon a time, before a single 787 barrel had been wrapped, Boeing let itself dream big about the future of the 737. Not to say that the big dreaming stopped, but it was just over taken by the engineering need on 787 and a massively growing 737 backlog between 2006-2008 that pushed the need for a replacement to the early part of the next decade.

Had Boeing gone ahead with the 737RS, today we would be just two to five years away from entry into service. The 737RS was part of Project 20XX, which spawned the Sonic Cruiser and 787 initial technology studies, and broke down Boeing's future ambition into three categories: Y1, Y2 and Y3. Y1, the 100-200 seat market, was the 737 replacement. Y2, the 200-350 seat replacement, is what we know as the 787. Y3 at 350-450 seats covered the 777 market.

Mike Cave, now president of Boeing Capital Corporation, was appointed as the study's director in 2006. At the time, not much was known about Boeing's 737RS plans, more than that the aircraft was set to be a mini-787:
According to industrial sources, Boeing has accelerated the pace of the 737RS study effort and even plans to make its initial pass on prospective supplier teams by mid-2006. The RS/Y1 concept is based around an all-composite 787-like structure, fly-by-wire, more-electric system architecture, EVS-integrated avionics flightdeck, and a cabin cross-section "wider than A320". Aerodynamic improvements include a longer span wing, single-slotted flaps, raked and blended-winglet wingtip options, blended fin root and 787-like Section 41 (nose and flightdeck).
Airbus launched its own NSR (new single aisle replacement) study and reached similar conclusions about what a 2012 narrowbody replacement could provide for gains in efficiency.
Initial results from both NSR and RS/Y1 studies have, apparently, been less than stellar. Acting completely independently, the two studies have come up with similar results for their individual concepts, which fall far short of the ideal targets set for the 2012 timeframe airliner.

Airbus NSR Phase 1 results, for example, are believed to have indicated that if all the advanced technology (available and considered mature and sufficiently low-risk for entry into service in 2012) was poured into the aircraft, the best specific fuel consumption reduction would be 4%, the best operating cost reduction 3% and the best emissions reduction would be 5%. The numbers are also said to be within 0.5-1% for all parameters for the initial phases of Boeing's RS/Y1.

These results therefore mean the aggregate benefit of all the combined results indicates a maximum efficiency improvement of only around 9-10% over the current A320/737 models. Given the estimated $7 billion development pricetag (airframe, systems and engine technology) involved in the NSR, insiders say Airbus in particular is asking if the venture is "too much, too soon".
Then, like now, the engine technology was the driving factor in getting narrowbody efficiency gains of 20%. However, as Boeing and Airbus target 15% improvement with re-engined 737s and A320s, next generation engine technology found in the LEAP-X, PW1000G and RB285 has provided a 50% boost in efficiency expectations from the RS/Y1 & NSR original studies. 

Though does this create a dilemma down the road for Airbus and Boeing? If 10-15% gains in efficiency can be yielded with a re-engining program on existing models for a mid-decade entry into service, is an additional 5% over today's aircraft for a replacement 202X (a total gain of 20%) enough to justify the development of a completely new aircraft type? To really make mark, do the 202X replacements really need 30-35% improvement gains over today's aircraft?

A leap too far?

After more than a year of calls for cutting production of narrowbody aircraft, Airbus and Boeing are headed in the opposite direction. Airbus announced Tuesday that it will increase rates on A320 starting in December, going from 34 to 36 aircraft per month and Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Jim Albaugh, says that a decision will be made in April and this summer on 777 and 737 rates, respectively.

In a business that is inherently cyclical, Boeing has reliably dropped narrowbody rates every 10 years ±1 year, the recession of 2009 has broken that trend. Boeing and Airbus have maintained that responsible management of the backlog is a the root of the production stability and backfilling delivery spots with downstream customers was the way to stave off any cuts.

Though, what about a different way to look at it? For both Airbus and Boeing, the profit-margin narrowbody products (A320, 737) which have been paid off for years are currently paying for low/no/negative-margin programs (A380, 787). Based on that logic, along with the availability of financing from EXIM and ECA that keeps aircraft flowing out of the US and Europe, the rates are kept high to sustain operations across each company.

No one disputes that the cycle, which hit bottom last year, will recover, but just how much? Have the painful deep cuts been fully avoided? Is the cycle officially broken on narrowbody production? Or have Boeing and Airbus just deferred what could be a bigger fall later created by the bursting of a narrowbody bubble due to over-supply of aircraft?
XF100ng.jpgXF70ng.jpgJust in case you were worried that there weren't enough 70-100-seat commercial aircraft being offered in the next decade, a newly funded and resurrected Fokker Aircraft is hoping to join the fray with a next generation F-100 and F-70. 

Just so we're clear, a next gen 100-seat Fokker - dubbed the XF100 NG - would compete along side the currently operating Embraer E-190/195 and Bombardier CRJ900/1000, and lesser utilized Airbus A318 and Boeing 737-600, and by 2015 would have the CS100, Mitsubishi MRJ90/100 and Sukhoi Superjet 100 to compete with. This market is not hurting for new entrants.

That being said, the €20m ($27m) loan from the Dutch economics ministry would enable NG Aircraft to take the F-100 prototype (PH-MKH), now stored in Woensdrecht in The Netherlands, and add new engines, new continuous isobar winglets, add range and fuel capacity and a new interior with IFE and LCD lighting for an assembly completion by 2015. An XF70 NG would presumably follow later.

By the look of the renderings on the company's website, the XF-100NG appears to be sporting a BR725 engine like that of the Gulfstream G650, though a powerplant choice isn't stated. NG Aircraft appears to have an interesting view of the marketplace moving forward, but there will be a stiff headwind for development against multiple clean sheet designs, but that's not to say I'm not extremely intrigued by this concept. Let's see how this one plays out.

From a business perspective, those chasing the dream of resurrecting the F-100 and F-70, might actually have a case to make. Airlines love clean sheet designs for all the goodies (and added efficiency) they bring to the table. However, NG Aircraft is looking at an already established design, making their investment more an incremental evolution of existing technology. They believe that their winglets will provide a 2% improvement in fuel burn, but give no indication of the efficiency with the new engines. Yet, the real savings to NG might come from manufacturing costs which the company believes can be reduced by 20% with high-speed milling, castings, extrusions and an overall reduction in parts. Could NG regain market share on discount pricing alone?

Photos Credit NG Aircraft
Last year, I managed to catch the last 10 minutes of this week's Movie Monday. After seeing that last bit of Inside American Airlines - A Week in The Life, I scoured the internet in search of the program. I was less than successful. Though a huge hat tip goes to AirShowFan for the find. 

This 90min documentary stands as an interesting juxtaposition to Letter from an Airline Pilot, the 1947 look at the operations of TWA, which was bought by American in 2001. How airlines have changed in the intervening 62 years is a stark historical comparison. The documentary looks at all the dynamics of modern airlines including frequent flier programs, labor/management relations, ticketing strategy, baggage handling, fuel costs, safety training, flight operations and perhaps most importantly, the state of the airline business model as a whole. Enjoy!
 

The second 787 test aircraft (ZA002) is leaving the nest as early as Tuesday, headed to Southern California Logistics Airport in Victorville, California about 50mi outside of Los Angeles. This will be the first out of state trip for 787 Flight Test after more than two and a half months of testing at airports in Washington. 

ZA002 is expected to make a mid-morning arrival on Tuesday in Victorville after a little over three hour flight from Boeing Field. The 15,059ft runway at VCV is ideal for flight test as it provides a lot of margin for test pilots and is the second largest public-use runway in the US after Denver International Airport. During their time in California, flight test staff will be working out of a quadruple-wide trailer relocated from the local City Hall.

Victorville is also the home to a large aircraft boneyard, as the final resting place for the fleets of defunct airlines like Oasis, Silverjet, Aloha, Cargo B and Aladia, as well as a lot of former Delta L-1011s.

Occupancy at Victorville went up significantly in the last two years with older aircraft coming out of service from airlines like United, Singapore Airlines, British Airways and Cathay Pacific.


Boeing will shift control of its fleet of four modified 747-400 large cargo freighters or 'Dreamlifters' to Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings as part of a compensation deal in the wake of delays incurred by the airframer's 747-8 program, sources close to the agreement confirm.

Atlas would not "confirm nor deny" that the nine-year Dreamlifter deal is part of compensation package for its delayed order for 747-8F aircraft, now scheduled to begin delivery in early 2011.

The carrier emphasizes that the outsourcing model which Atlas operates under creates a "cost-effective" operation for operating the Dreamlifters on worldwide operations.

Atlas, which is the largest customer for the 747-8F, holds orders for 12 of the 76 freighter aircraft Boeing has on order.

Atlas originally planned to take delivery six 747-8Fs in 2010 and the remaining six in 2011. Now deliveries will be completed during the first half of 2013, says Ed McGarvey, vice president and treasurer of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings.

Boeing has incurred more than a year of delays on its 747-8 program after design changes and supply chain woes stalled the development of the company's largest aircraft.

Boeing declines to "publicly share the ins-and-outs" of the contract, but is not offering an explicit denial that the deal was part of a compensation package related to the 747-8F.

As part of the operational agreement, Boeing will retain ownership of the Dreamlifter fleet, and handle certain costs such as fuel, while Atlas pilots and crews will operate the aircraft.

Atlas says at this point it doesn't believe it will need to add any additional pilots to operate the Dreamlifters, as the aircraft is largely based on the 747-400. The company currently employs roughly 650 747-400 pilots, but does acknowledge some crew will need "differences training" to operate the modified Dreamlifter.

Starting in September, Atlas will assume control of the Dreamlifter cargo flights from Everegreen International Airlines, which won a contract from Boeing for the operation in December 2005. Evergreen inaugurated its Dreamlifter flights in August 2007.

Evergreen was formally notified of the contract cancellation on 2 March, but Boeing offered no explanation for the abrupt termination, says Tim Wahlberg, chairman of holding company Evergreen International Aviation.

He adds that Boeing informed the airline of a "best value" review it was conducting as a part of normal business, and to "not worry about it" as Everegreen was "doing a great job".

"I can't even tell you how disappointed we are," says Wahlberg, who adds that 75 pilots, mechanics and ground crew supporting the Dreamlifter operations will be difficult to retain.

Wahlberg says Everegreen, which achieved 93% on-time performance with the Dreamlifter, will bid to operate the aircraft again at the end of Atlas' nine-year contract.

Wahlberg adds that Evergreen beat Atlas Air during the initial 2005 bid for the contract.

At the time Evergreen assumed control in 2007, the contract life was 20 years, renewable every five years over the life of the 787 program.

The four aircraft, which were specially modified in Taiwan from passenger 747-400 aircraft, are the backbone of the 787's global supply chain, ferrying over-sized structural components and tooling between Asia, Europe and the USA to integration and final assembly sites.

Sometime in the last three weeks a 747 departed Johannesburg, South Africa for Maputo, Mozambique with an camera strapped to the nose landing gear looking aft along the fuselage. The result is a stunning piece of HD video taken over African skies. (music leaves something to be desired) You'll notice that the Air France A380, which started service to JNB on February 17th, is parked at the gate giving some impression of just how recently the footage was recorded.

The video reminds me of one angle available on the PMDG 747-400 in Flight Simulator X, and I must say, the real thing is one spectacular view. Though, I have to ask, how did the camera come down during the approach without the main gear coming down as well? 

Based on what I can see on the video, my best guess points to this aircraft being a MK Airlines 747-200B(Special Freighter) which is painted in an all white livery, but the grey belly in the photo is a wild card. Guesses anyone?
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Boeing has (unsurprisingly) announced that it will bid on the KC-X tanker contract to replace the KC-135 tanker. It's choice, dubbed the NewGen Tanker, is based on the 767, but aspects of the design may pull from multiple variants of the twin-jet, including the wings, doors, flaps and cargo deck. Included in this design is the addition of winglets for improvement in cruise endurance as well.

In the front of the aircraft, Boeing has opted to incorporate a 787-style flight deck with four 15.1in LCD displays (see above). Also added are two cursor control devices like those first introduced on the 777 in 1995. Missing from the NewGen 767 is the fifth, a multi-function display found on the 787, leaving the original twin-flight management computers. 

The 767 has gotten periodic flight deck upgrades for different variants, including a 777-style upgrade with the 767-400ER. The KC-767 initially drew from this design, but has now been upgraded for the tanker bid with the most-updated 787 large-display format.

Sales prospects for commercial 767s will be further limited as 787 begins deliveries, but the question becomes, will the 787-style displays on tanker ever find its way into non-military production on a Next Generation 777? What about a re-engined 737? Southwest already has plans to upgrade its 737-300s with the larger displays.

That question ultimately rests on ITAR regulations, however if a commercial platform gets the flight deck first, then the flow of technology to the tanker could be unimpeded.

Photos Credit Boeing

At Darwin Airport in Northern Territory, Australia an Airbus A340-300 has been undergoing flight testing since the February 21st. The curious arrival of the aircraft - MSN001 (F-WWAI) - was noted by the Northern Territory News under the headline A340 arrives in Top End for ice testing, stating that the aircraft is "being put through its paces in the Territory after a major air disaster off the coast of South America."

The article then goes on to state that the aircraft is "testing new engines at high altitude", citing an industry source. While the article begins to draw a link to the testing in Darwin to the A330-200 Air France 447 crash in June, the relationship is anything but clear. This particular A340-300 is powered by four CFM56-5C engines while Air France's fleet of A330-200s are powered by two General Electric CF6-80E1.

F-WWAI-nose.jpgAn Airliners.net photo of F-WWAI arriving in Darwin on February 21st provides an interesting clue. Mounted on the partially painted nosecone are two red protrusions, and a third just aft of the cone, that appear to be external sensors.

Much of the discussion regarding Air France 447 has been related to the A330/A340's pitot tubes and sensors potentially returning bad airspeed data under certain icing conditions.

At first glance, engine icing tests appear far less likely in this case if the purpose of the A340's testing is related to Air France 447, especially when matched against the new hardware installed on the front of the aircraft.

I've put in a formal query with Airbus about the A340-300 testing in Darwin and will update this post with additional information as it becomes available.

UPDATE 5:58 PM ET: Airbus has responded to the initial query about the A340-300 testing with the following statement:
Airbus is contributing to an international research program about meteorological conditions encountered at high altitudes. This contribution includes a number of flights carried out by an A340 from Airbus' Flight Test division. This aircraft has been equipped with specific sensors to measure atmospheric conditions. Studies have determined that the highest probability to meet appropriate conditions would be in Australia, in the region of Darwin. Results are now being analysed.
Photo Thumbnail Credit Martin Eadie (FULL VERSION)

Seattle Times aerospace reporter Dominic Gates sat down with Jim Albaugh, Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, in a wide-ranging discussion about the future of the company. The write-up of the interview provides a good overview of the topics covered, ranging from the location of future aircraft programs, the relationship between Boeing and its unions, as well as outsourcing and protection of intellectual property. 

In addition to the print re-cap of the interview, the Times has published the hour-long video of the unedited interview. I highly recommend viewing it start to finish, especially if you wear (or want to wear) a Boeing badge.
I'm a big believer in anniversaries and birthdays, recognizing the accumulation of years, especially in aviation, is an important way to mark the passage of time and technological progress. Today is one of those days. Forty-one years ago, the Concorde (F-WTSS) prototype - one of two built - made its first flight from Toulouse on March 2, 1969. I found the original raw footage on Youtube in its original French. For those of us who don't speak French (like myself), the action begins around 55 seconds. Enjoy!
Editors Note: The reason the title of the post is in French is because 002 (G-BSST) - the British built Concorde - didn't fly from Filton until April 9, 1969.
787-93-view.jpgWith June set for firming the configuration of the 787-9, Boeing is taking major strides to incorporate what it has learned on testing the 787-8 in the air and on the ground to optimize the aircraft. The first 787-9 was initially intended to be Airplane 88, which later became Airplane 109 and now stands at Airplane 139 (ZB001). The first 787-9 will be delivered to Air New Zealand at the end of 2013.

The task ahead is an engineer's dream (or nightmare): Stretch an airframe 20ft, add about 40 seats, make it fly 8,000 to 8,500 nm - farther than its predecessor - all while keeping the wing the same span, and having having 100gal less fuel to work with, all while removing potentially thousands of pounds of excess weight from the original -8 design. 

The stretch, which comes entirely in two 120in, 5-frame additions to the 43 section (built by Kawasaki) and the 46 section (built by Alenia), will come through the production system through center fuselage integration at Boeing Charleston, which was sized for the larger aircraft. 

The 787-8 and -9 wing has been a subject of great debate inside Boeing for years now, as the -9 wing grew three times to 207ft 11in, then came back to a common planform as the -8 with a 197ft 3in wingspan last Spring as early static tests and the -18 wing break test showed the strength of the wing box (side-of-body not withstanding). Additionally, the reduced span was set set to save an estimated 4000lbs, which would have cost more range than the increase in aerodynamic efficiency would have yielded.

With static airframe (ZY997) testing heading toward ultimate load, the design of the side-of-body reinforcement will be put through its paces, allowing Boeing to resize the fittings if necessary, which have added a notable amount of weight to the aircraft to ensure their strength, say those close to the aircraft. Additionally, the flight loads survey that will be conducted by ZA004 will help calibrate finite element methods used to size the 787-9.

Program engineers also say that the one-piece barrel structures have survived loads far beyond expectations, and well in excess of certification requirements. While a marketing victory of sorts, those same engineers see that kind of strength in the -8 as a sign of an over-designed structure. The more Boeing learns about the -8 structure, the more optimization can take place for the -9.

Major changes - many obstructed from public view - will be coming on the systems level for -9. The Airbus Dossier of October 2008 - and its conclusion - provide some indication of the changes coming, but more than a year later, program sources say that the guts of the -9 are "significantly different" in some areas to the -8. One known area is an increase in the APU power output from 225 KVA on the -8 to 250 KVA on the -9, along with a revised cargo environmental control system.

The landing gear, for example will be larger than that of the -8 with larger main trucks and wheels, tires and brakes. As a result, the wheel well pressure deck will be raised and the structural architecture revised to accommodate the larger landing gear.

For Rolls-Royce, the technology developed for the Trent 1000 Package B engines set to be tested first on ZA004 later this year, will be a big driver for the entry into service fuel burn expectations of the 787. Even beyond that, Rolls-Royce is aiming to have an additional 1% improvement even beyond the Package B EIS spec, not to mention whatever Trent XWB designs are fed back into the 1000.

Not to mention, we'll finally find out what happened to that missing window!
Saturday, February 27th would have been the 100th birthday of Clarence "Kelly" Johnson, leader of Lockheed Skunk Works, who was responsible for the design of iconic aircraft like the SR-71 Blackbird, P-38 Lightning, F-80 Shooting Star, U-2 Dragon Lady and the family of Constellation propliners. His extraordinary accomplishments are an encyclopedia of aviation history and twice earned him the Collier Trophy. Air and Space magazine also looked back on his storied career in an extensive feature that takes a close look at many of his projects.

One aircraft in particular that hangs in the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum, not far from Mr. Johnson's other creations. is the Lockheed F-104 Starfighter. Today's Movie Monday is a roughly hour-long look at the rapid development of the "manned missile" that saw service in the US Air Force between 1958 and 1967. Parts two through six are after the jump. Enjoy.