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August 2010 Archives


While the 787's flight over to Farnborough featured evaluations of ZA003's communications systems, the aircraft's three days visit to the UK air show was far from a rigorous test environment. The only evaluations that took place on the ground were by the 787's customers.

As early as Tuesday, ZA002, painted in the colors of the program's launch customer ANA, will depart Boeing Field for Keflavik, Iceland for the program's first international test visit.

Because of the airports notoriously high winds and long perpendicular runways, the Icelandic airport is ideal for testing the crosswind handling capabilities of commercial aircraft, and last hosted the 777-200 and -300 during its testing. Keflavik has hosted Airbus as well, when the A380 conducted its own crosswind trials there in 2007.

With first delivery likely to slip into 2011, Boeing is making significant executive moves to right its jumbo freighter program. Effective Monday:
  • Pat Shanahan, current vice president of airplane programs, has extended his responsibilities on the program and will oversee flight test, certification and delivery of the 747-8F. His role as head of airplane programs will continue.
  • Mo Yahyavi, current 747 vice president and general manager, will take on an unpecified special assignment.
  • Elizabeth Lund, current 767 vice president and general manager will take over as Shanahan's deputy program manager.
  • Kim Pastega, current head of 777 manufacturing, will assume the role of 767 vice president and general manager. 
  • Jason Clark, current head of 747-8 interiors, will assume the role currently held by Pastega.
Photo Credit Russell Hill
Passed midnight on the east coast and this is just out from Boeing:
EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Boeing (NYSE: BA) Company said today that it now expects delivery of the first 787 in the middle of the first quarter 2011.

The delivery date revision follows an assessment of the availability of an engine needed for the final phases of flight test this fall.

While Boeing works closely with Rolls-Royce to expedite engine availability, flight testing across the test fleet continues as planned.

Boeing said last month that the cumulative impact of a series of issues, including supplier workmanship issues related to the horizontal stabilizer and instrumentation delays, could push first delivery of the 787 a few weeks into 2011. The delay in engine availability has extended that estimate to mid-first quarter 2011.

The schedule revision will not affect the company's financial guidance.
UPDATE 12:05 AM PT: Here's my full story on the announcement, including what could potentially be happening with the future of the Package A engine.

While the airframer did not explicitly address the uncontained 2 August failure of a 'Package A' Trent 1000 in its announcement, the company says "the delivery date revision follows an assessment of the availability of an engine needed for the final phases of flight test this fall", indicating 'Package B' powerplants may be substituted for the early build Trent 1000s for ANA.

With a lack of specifics from Boeing and Rolls-Royce, the future of the Package A engine remains uncertain. However, indications exist that a modification for the failed part will be fed back into the early production engines with the fall testing related to flying Airplane Nine - the first production 787 to fly - on limited engineering tests, instead of Package B certification testing on test aircraft four.



SEATTLE -- Late Thursday, ATW reported that Kenya Airways managing director and CEO was notified first delivery to All Nippon Airways will slip an additional three months , placing the handover at the end of the first or beginning of the second quarter of 2011. Historically, Boeing's last step before announcing a further delay to the 787's first delivery has coincided with the official notification of its customer base.

Boeing would not confirm if it had informed Kenya Airways or any of its 787 customers an additional delay in first delivery to ANA was coming. The airframer has already cautioned that first delivery could slip out of 2010 into early 2011 after sluggish flight test instrumentation change out and horizontal stabilizer inspections slowed the flight test program.

Currently unknown is if the August 2 uncontained failure of a 'Package A' Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engine will have any impact on the schedule, despite assurances by the engine maker.

The third week of August is no stranger to Boeing announcements of bad news. One year ago tomorrow, Boeing announced a six-month delay following the June 2009 revelation that the 787 required reinforcement of the side-of-body.

7:07 PM PT UPDATE: A source with knowledge of the announcement says that a slip in first 787 delivery to the middle or end of the first quarter will be released on Friday.

7:11 PM PT UPDATE: It is believed the slip will be attributed to issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engine, as well as the Alenia-made horizontal stabilizer. The source adds that slip was was expected on Thursday, though Boeing and Rolls-Royce were agreeing on the wording of the announcement.
In June, Flightglobal was invited by civil and defense simulator manufacturer CAE to get hands-on with its Boeing 787 Series 7000 full-flight simulator. Mike Gerzanics, Flightglobal test pilot and current 737 captain and I traveled to Montreal, Canada for an up-close look at a new Level D simulator that will be used to train Continental's 787 pilots in Houston. Mike, who is also rated in the 777 authored a comprehensive flight test package about his impressions of the 787 simulator, its handling and features.


During the two hours we had with the simulator, Gerzanics and I flew the simulated skies over San Francisco in both normal and irregular operations. Here are some of his impressions:
I am type rated in both the 777 and 757/767, having flown them in engineering and maintenance capacity for a US legacy carrier. While it has been several years since my last flight in either type, I instantly felt at home in the 787. For my familiarisation preview flight of the 787 simulator, the empty weight was 113,500kg (250,000lb) and a fuel load of 68,000kg. The simulator was at San Francisco International, an airport with which I am familiar. CAE Capt Domenic Di Iorio sat in the right seat and guided me through the pre-start flows. Di Iorio also ran the electronic checklist.

By design, flows and procedures are similar to those I remember for the 777. While we typically would start both engines on the 777 at the same time, we started No 2 followed by No 1 in the 787 simulator. Regardless, the procedure is simple - start switch to start and start lever to on, the FADEC taking care of the rest. Flaps were set to 5, and the before-taxi checklist was accomplished using the smart electronic checklist.

During the taxi to Runway 28R I again marvelled at level of detail in the simulation. While never to be confused with the real thing, feeling concrete expansion joints while taxiing lends an air of authenticity. A reduced power take-off was accomplished, with indicated take-off speeds (V1/VR/V2) of 142/144/153kt respectively.

Rotation forces were on par with those I remembered from the 777, establishing a 10e_SDgr attitude and holding it until lift-off. Once airborne the gear was retracted and I followed the flight director guidance for the initial climb. Passing 1,000ft (300m) MSL the flaps were retracted at the reference flap speed bugs on the airspeed tape. A 250kt indicated airspeed climb to 5,000ft MSL was accomplished, and I steered the 787 towards the coast near Half Moon Bay, California.



Travel Day: DCA-BDL-ORD-SEA, originally uploaded by flightblogger.

HARTFORD -- I'm currently in the middle of my day bouncing across the country. I've wrapped up my visit to Pratt & Whitney in Hartford and Middletown where the company tightened the final bolt on the first PW1524G engine to test. After a grueling 24-month, eight-engine certification program the geared powerplant will take flight under the wing of the Bombardier CSeries. I'll have much more on my visit to Pratt during this week and next.

Next stop for me is O'Hare on United 483 on board N468UA, an Airbus A320, then on to Seattle for a few days for the unveiling of the Boeing 787 full flight simulator and additional interviews. Flightglobal will be covering 787 simulators wall-to-wall, so check back mid-day Thursday for an up close multimedia look at the tools that will train future Dreamliner pilots and a 777-rated pilot's impression of how the simulator handles.

If all goes to plan, Thursday and Friday are going to be very, very busy days on this blog.

Stay tuned.

ZA005-IceShapes_1000.jpgHow is it possible that 787 is flying icing tests in late August in the skies over Seattle? In fact, Boeing's fifth 787 flight test aircraft - ZA005 (N787FT) - has been been doing exactly that - flying maneuvers to evaluate the handling and stall characteristics as if ice were forming on the 787's wings, horizontal and vertical stabilizers. However, flight test crews aren't out searching for natural icing conditions like they did with ZA001 in mid-May, rather, before taking off from Boeing and Paine Fields earlier this week, ZA005 was fitted with simulated ice shapes.  

Frank Rasor, then director of flight test operations, and now Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief engineer, described the icing tests at a 2009 787 flight test briefing:
Basically what we've done is been able to simulate the worst case icing conditions on the airplane with ice shapes. Flight test is all about the envelope conditions, so we will be testing within that envelope and get ice buildup on the airplane. But the ice shapes allow us to know we are at that end condition, otherwise it's very difficult to measure what's happening on the wing during the flight. It allows us to get there, know the condition, and fly there safely. Ice shapes are primarily foam-epoxy build-up and they're put on with glue and aluminum speed tape that we use in flight tests. They can be taken off. We do performance take-off and landing with those ice shapes on. 
ZA005 spent a few extra days at Paine Field before the testing got underway on Sunday, after the aircraft developed a hydraulic leak on approach during an August 17 flight from Boeing Field. The aircraft has spent this week flying in and out of Everett and over Puget Sound with the ice shapes fitted to the leading edges of the wings and stabilizers.

A very special thanks to Alex Jossi, who snapped the photo above of ZA005 departing Boeing field on August 17.
Just out from Bloomberg:
Rolls-Royce Group Plc was forced to temporarily close a site used to trial jet engines for Boeing Co.'s 787 Dreamliner model and the rival Airbus SAS A350 after a turbine blew up on the test bed earlier this month.

The failure of the Trent 1000 engine, which powers the Dreamliner, resulted in "limited debris being released into the test facility," Rolls-Royce spokesman Josh Rosenstock said in a telephone interview late yesterday. Minor repairs to the site in Derby, England, will be completed shortly, he said.
The failure, which happened on August 2, was not initially confirmed as uncontained by Rolls-Royce or Boeing, with statements that declined to address the specific nature of the incident.
The European Aviation Safety Agency, which must sign off on new aircraft and components developed in the region, said it sent an official to England following the test-bed incident. The malfunction occurred on Aug. 2 and was a so-called uncontained failure, according to Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman Alison Duquette. That means pieces of debris would have been flung out at high speed, piercing the housing. 

"We can confirm that we have been notified by Rolls-Royce and we are working with the company to make sure the engine is certified to the highest possible standard," EASA spokesman Jeremie Teahan said yesterday from Cologne, Germany.
Boeing said last week that it was working with Rolls-Royce closely on the investigation and added that it the failure had not impacted 787 flight testing "to date". Though as part of the company's investigation, it was "working through a plan" to determine if first delivery to ANA or 787 production flights would be impacted. Boeing did not disclose when it expected to complete the investigation.


As I write this, ZA002 (N787EX), Boeing's second 787 flight test aircraft is cruising up the coast of Canada at 36,000ft bound for the North Pole to spend the day evaluating a myriad of navigation systems.

I plugged in ZA002's flight plan into Great Circle Mapper to get a sense of 787's polar route, which will see the aircraft heading north along the Pacific coast toward Fairbanks, Alaska, before overflying the northern-most airport in the United States, Wiley Post-Will Rogers Memorial Airport in Barrow, Alaska.
SEA J523 YZT J502 FAI Q61 BRW 7500N 16500W 8000N 17500W 8500N 17500W 8900N 15000W 9000N 00000W 8900N 13000W 8500N 13000W 8000N 13000W 7500N 13000W 7000N 12500W 6500N 12300W 6000N 12300W YYE J541 YYJ JAWBN1
After crossing Barrow, ZA002 will continue north over the Beaufort Sea before reaching 90N 0W, also known as the geographic North Pole. (A 2005 estimate of the magnetic North Pole lies at 82.7°N 114.4°W)

The aircraft will then head south through Western Canada with a return to Boeing Field scheduled for 10:15 PM PT. With its departure this morning just before 8 AM from Seattle, the polar flight will be the longest performed by a 787 to date clocking in at more than 14 hours. This will break the record held by ZA004 at 12h 30min recorded during NAMS testing on May 19.

Aviation Week's Guy Norris provides a superb technical summary of the kind of navigation tests that ZA002 will conduct during the polar flight and includes his own personal experiences flying along with McDonnell Douglas MD-11 flight test teams in 1989 as they validated the aircraft's navigation systems over the North Pole:

Although Boeing does not comment on specific flight tests, it is likely the crew will perform runs to and around the north pole in various modes and simulating various system failures. In 1989 I was lucky enough to be on a polar test flight during the latter stages of the MD-11 certification program, and joined the crew on the flight deck along with the FAA and JAA officials to see how the displays would cope with the transition over the pole itself. With darkness cloaking the scene outside, all eyes were on the large screens as the moment arrived. Despite several failure modes deliberately added to the mix, the system coped admirably - the displays momentarily 'blinked' before a rapid heading and track reversal occurred as we passed over the polar waypoint.


It was a strange thought that one second we were hurtling north at transonic speed, and the next we were pointing straight south. Our flight had begun in London and transited to the pole via Norway before crossing the top of the world and continuing south across Canada and the U.S. to McDonnell Douglas's test site in Yuma, Ariz. It was a memorable day, not least for allowing me to witness two sunrises and two sunsets in the space of 14 hours!

Map Courtesy Karl Swartz

In the just the last two weeks, three mystery facilities across the United States have come to the fore with varying degrees of clarity, and three of the worlds biggest aircraft makers are closely involved and not saying a word.

On August 19, Boeing announced it was going to be expanding assembly and sub-assembly operations for its defense and space business to MidAmerica Airport in Mascoutah, Illinois. The announcement was hailed by local leaders, but the release lacked any specific explanation about what the facility would be used for. MidAmerica Airport is famous for its pricey state-of-the-art passenger terminal that serves no passengers

The second facility in Jacksonville, Florida is a new hangar being leased by Embraer. Again, mum's the word as the company would provide no specifics about its future plans in Florida beyond saying:

Embraer spokeswoman Christine Manna said the Brazilian company, which has an office in Fort Lauderdale, continued to peg Jacksonville as "the location of choice for our defense-related activities in North America, if an opportunity arose."

Embraer's decision to exercise the option for leasing the hangar would hinge on whether it successfully lands an aircraft contract, said Jacksonville Aviation Authority spokesman Michael Stewart.

Stewart and Manna declined comment on the nature of work Embraer would do.
Super Tucano production in the US perhaps, maybe a EADS/Airbus style tactic for landing a KC-390 contract with the US Air Force? 

The last one, which is the most murky, is dubbed Project X, a development at Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport in Georgia. While it's not clear what the purpose of Project X is, the proximity to Gulfstream raises eyebrows, especially with the behind the scenes development of P42, Gulfstream's replacement for the large-cabin G450 and G550. 

Where Project X might fit into this equation, in terms of scope and impact, is anyone's guess at this point. But the simple fact that it carries a code name and is shrouded in the kind of secrecy that suggests multiple confidentiality agreements have been signed would indicate that this is no "Mom and Pop" operation.
Beyond the unknown purposes of these three facilities, one thing is certainly evident: Aerospace manufacturing is expanding, not contracting, in North America - a distinct bright spot amid a shaky economic recovery.

Photo Credit US71
A350-cutaway_560.jpgThe first sub-assemblies for MSN001, the first Airbus A350-900, are scheduled to arrive in Toulouse a year from now in the third quarter of 2011 ahead of final assembly.

The program has eaten significant margin already, having pushed the start of final assembly of MSN001 from second quarter 2011 to the third quarter 2011, with first flight to follow in mid-2012. That event will kick off a 12-month - down from 15-month - five aircraft, 2,600h flight test program to certify the new twin-jet.

The initial slip of three months, which maintains an entry into service date with Qatar Airways in mid-2013, was attributed by Airbus to four primary areas related to the sizing of the majority composite jetliner.
[A350 program manager Didier] Evrard says the decision to push back fabrication was partly driven by the fact that Airbus is working in so many new areas with carbonfibre, so "you only have one chance. Normally you could commit to production with a global finite element model, but the process for development of structure in composite is really different [to metal] - you cannot start machining the part and then improve the design.

"The four areas affected comprised the airframe sizing, the wing-root joint, the fuselage's electric structural network (ESN - which helps the conductivity of the carbonfibre fuselage) and the fuselage damage tolerance. While the first two issues have been resolved and the fixes approved, validation of the solutions for the latter two is ongoing but progressing well, says Airbus.
However, with three years to go before it carries passengers, a new report from Bernstein Research is pegging A350 entry into service in 2014. The report by Air Transport World, does not elaborate on the reasons for the further slip, but states that the European airframer will hand over just eight of the aircraft in 2014.
Asked to comment, an Airbus spokesperson told ATW, "We don't have any basis to confirm the data in the Bernstein report." Airbus has reassured the market in the past that the program is on track for a 2013 first delivery.
With Airbus maintaining its 2013 target, one A350 supplier source tells FlightBlogger: "Airbus is in more schedule trouble than Boeing was with the 787." First Section 15 composite panel fabrication is expected to begin in September or October at Spirit AeroSystems in Kinston, North Carolina, adds the source, before the parts are later shipped to St. Nazaire for center fuselage build up in the first quarter of 2011.

A350-Aerolia-UpperSec12.jpgDespite a potential slip, fabrication of MSN001 has been ongoing since December 2009, and structural supplier Aerolia, which builds the upper panel of the Section 12, which will contain the A350's forward doors, completed fabrication in July along with the St. Nazaire-manufactured aluminum lithium lower sill of Section 11 which makes up the flight deck structure in the forward fuselage.

Rendering Credit Airbus & Photo Credit Aerolia
747-8_560.jpgWith the 747-8F schedule increasingly shaky, inside Boeing's Everett factory assembly operations are progressing toward final body join of RC001, the first 747-8I.

Boeing expects to join RC001's fuselage sections together late in the third quarter or early fourth quarter, placing the commencement of final assembly in late September or October.

Currently, sections 41 and 42 which make up the 747's iconic hump, are being joined over in Building 40-23, behind the massive 787 static test rig at the front of the building. Section 46, which will be mated to section 48, the aircraft aft fuselage, is currently in build up.

The 747-8F upper deck is the same size as the original 747-100, while the 747-8I upper deck will be the longest stretch Boeing has designed into the jetliner since the 747-400.

Boeing also plans to perform the stub join, which will see the first 747-8I's wings joined to the center wing box, before being hoisted by two overhead cranes and lowered into the final body join position.

Meanwhile, the 747-8F test fleet continues to move forward through its certification campaign even as the program works through inboard aileron and structural flutter issues:
  • RC501 which just emerged from a week of planned maintenance following stability and control testing, is now pressing forward with wing twist evaluations. 
  • RC521 ferried to Colorado Spring, Colorado on 20 August for high altitude ground testing of the aircraft's engines and auxiliary power unit. 
  • RC522 is currently undergoing community noise testing in Glasgow, Montana.
  • RC503, the newest member of the flight test fleet, is performing High Intensity Radiated Fields (HIRF) evaluations in Palmdale, California.
Rendering Credit Boeing

With its south west swing continuing a day after undergoing aerodynamic testing at Edwards Air Force Base, ZA001 spent Wednesday at Roswell, New Mexico for wet runway trials. The 13001ft-long ungrooved runway is far more challenging than nearby Edwards Air Force Base and has hosted previous flight test aircraft for certification trials before. ZA001 returned to Edwards on Wednesday evening and will spend Thursday conducting Velocity minimum unstick testing.

Video Courtest KOB in New Mexico
Boeing issued a short statement on the 'Package A' Trent 1000 engine failure in Derby:
Boeing is actively participating in the investigation into this event with Rolls-Royce. There has been no impact on the flight test program to date as a result of this event.
While the statement reiterates what Rolls-Royce said earlier in the week about the investigation, Boeing places a significant qualifier on any impact to 787 flight test with the worlds "to date". Package B Trent 1000 engines have yet to fly on ZA004, which is currently undergoing flight loads survey in Victorville, California.

An investigation will yield whether or not the failure, still believed to have been uncontained, was a one-off event or a systemic event, though Rolls-Royce's comment suggesting "a modification is already in place for later engines" points to an issue with the early Trent 1000s.
MSFSscreenshot.jpgYep, it's true AvGeeks, Microsoft is back with a new version of its 28-year old flight simluator. Due to the recession, Flight Simulator had been crashing on a friend's couch in Redmond since getting laid off in January 2009, and is reinventing itself as Flight for the new version of the venerable software. Let's hope this version can run on my Mac too. Also, I'm pretty sure Microsoft's new branding was lifted directly from us. No word on a release date or how badly this version will eat my CPU.

Tip of the hat to Peter Sanders

Dusting off 747-400s after their stay in the desert is a good sign of a recovering global economy. The long-range, high capacity jumbo's return to service with airlines like Cathay Pacific, British Airways and United Airlines signals a resurgence of strong demand on a diverse array of routes. While it is no longer the most efficient aircraft in its class with the larger A380 or slightly smaller 777-300ER filling its previous role, the need for capacity growth is outweighing the reintroduction of the less efficient type.

Though, with each individual carrier making decisions based on increases in demand, Bloomberg's report on capacity increases introduces this variable:
"Everybody is getting very excited about passenger and cargo volumes coming back, but there's a great temptation to add too much capacity," said Chris Tarry, an independent airline analyst and strategy consultant in London who has followed the industry for almost three decades. "What may be rational fleet decisions for individual airlines can add up to a problem for the industry when taken together."
This trend of bringing aircraft out of the desert along with production output rising on nearly every commercial assembly line at Boeing and Airbus, commercial aerospace, by all outward appearances, is a solid barometer of the way toward a global economic recovery. Yet, like all good cause and effect equations, is commercial aviation a leading or trailing indicator of global growth? It's like dividing by zero, it will make you cross eyed if you think about it too long.

Unleashed pent up demand from lessors came to the fore at Farnborough with lessors signing up for billions of dollars worth of aircraft, but for Richard Aboulafia - who has a pesky habit of hitting the nail on the head - the order bonanza may be shortsighted. Here's reason two of six the parade might be premature:
2. There's a degree of separation between the air travel market and the economy. Passenger and cargo traffic are doing great, and airlines are making money. Yet today's traffic numbers are now completely disconnected from, and way better than, the economic indicators that typically drive them. Stock prices, GDP growth, inflation (or even deflation), bond rates, retail sales, housing inventories, employment, and consumer confidence numbers in the US and Europe all show continuing uncertainty.
The numbers across the world's largest economies are decidedly uneven: Germany is growing like gangbusters, but the US and Japan are sputtering and Chinese factory output slowed for the fifth month straight. Economic indicators are all going in different directions, so what's an airline to do? Too many aircraft in the marketplace could wreak long-term havoc on airlines, lessors and manufacturers alike. Let's just hope the painful lessons in capacity discipline didn't get parked in the desert too.

In early August, a production standard 'Package A' Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engine suffered an engine failure while on the test stand at the company's Derby, UK facility. The 'Package A' engines do not incorporate upgrades planned for the 'Package B' engines, which will bring the specific fuel consumption target within 1% of planned spec.
Rolls-Royce says: "We have had an engine failure on a test bed in Derby. We are now investigating in detail and have made good progress in understanding the issue. We do not anticipate any impact on the programme."
Industry sources say the failure, which is believed to have been uncontained, occurred in early August on a production 'Package A' model Trent 1000 engine that will power early 787-8 aircraft for launch customer All Nippon Airways, and has been initially traced to the single-stage intermediate pressure (IP) turbine. The IP turbine in conjunction with the IP compressor supplies the electrical power for the 787's systems.
Boeing has yet to comment on the event, but it appears that 787 flight testing will not be impacted. ZA001 through ZA004 are all powered by the 'Package A' Trent 1000s. ZA004 will be outfitted with the 'Package B' engines later in the flight test program.

I'm a huge fan of the show Mad Men (haven't seen last night's episode, say nothing) so naturally I had to post 21 and a half minutes of vintage aviation footage from 1965. It's loaded with Douglas DC-8s, Boeing 707s and 727s and Convair 880s and 990s. The clip, which at the time was sponsored by AT&T, highlights how the "magic" of telephones made airline operations possible. The film is about 70% phones and 30% planes, but it really gives a great glimpse into the airline operations of the day.

Boeing's lead 787 flight test aircraft, ZA001, is bound for Edwards Air Force Base in southern California on Monday to begin a phase in the flight test campaign that will see the new composite jetliner conduct some of its most arduous flying.

The aircraft is slated to depart Boeing Field for Edwards around 8:00 AM PT for the hour and forty-five minute flight to California. While at Edwards, ZA001 will conduct velocity minimum unstick testing (Vmu) to establish the minimum flying speeds for the 787 at various weights and flap settings.

For these tests, ZA001 will rotate as soon as the aircraft's elevators become aerodynamically effective, pitching the 787's nose upward, striking the tail - affixed with a specialized tail dragger - on the runway. Flight test crews will establish the minimum performance for the aircraft, as the aircraft picks up speed and the aircraft begins to fly.

Ready for my second of two legs back to Washington, DC following a restful week on vacation in Copenhagen. It was a much needed break, but I'm excited about being back. My ride to DC this afternoon is a Bombardier Dash 8-Q400 Next Gen (N208WQ) just slightly smaller than the 757-200 (N34131) that took me across the pond to Newark from Kastrup this morning. Off and running Monday morning, lots of things to catch up on.

Late last week, I had an opportunity to catch an evening flick at the National Air & Space Museum IMAX theater. (Inception was excellent, highly recommend it) When the movie ended around 10:30 PM the museum was long past closed and the completely empty exhibit hall was a brilliant sight to behold. During the daytime, the museum is lit naturally through the massive windows that face the National Mall. At night however, spotlights set between the two levels light the main exhibit hall. Unfortunately I only had my iPhone on me, but I did my best to capture some of aviation's most historic artifacts in a different light.




Today's Movie Monday was filmed not long after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and takes a deep look at where the Russian airline industry was in its transition from existence as an arm of the communist government to more than 400 airlines competing amongst a loose confederation carriers. The absolutely jaw-dropping anecdotes by pilots, passengers and crews punctuate the documentary, as well as some hairy landings on Russian jetliners. 

The 1995 documentary also illustrates the headwind of perception new Russian aircraft makers will face when seeking western acceptance of their new jetliners. Fifteen years later, this documentary is screaming out for a follow up to see where the film's main characters and the industry is today. Airplaneski! runs around 70 minutes over five parts. Enjoy!
otto.jpg
The title of this post speaks for itself: I'm on vacation!

I'll be back on Monday, August 16 after taking a much needed breather. I'm taking advantage of the August lull to slow down, recharge and get ready for the fall season which is already shaping up to be just as packed as the summer was. I'll have fresh content all week - including Movie Monday - so no need to re-direct your browsers elsewhere.

In the meantime, I'm leaving Otto in change. 
DAE-787-crop_560.jpgWhen it first announced orders for 200 jets at the 2007 Dubai Air Show, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) grabbed headlines with its ambitious goal of becoming a massive Middle Eastern aerospace node, supplying aircraft to the region's rapidly growing fleets. The $27.2 billion deal was one of the largest in aviation history and embodied the seemingly endless demand from the region for commercial aircraft.

This week brought the realities of a shaky global economy to the forefront with the cancellation by DAE of 50 aircraft spread across four aircraft types from Boeing and Airbus. While Boeing and Airbus remain mum on the cancellations, the numbers tell the story. Airbus, reduced its DAE orders for the A350 XWB by seven to 23, and its A320 orders by 18 to 52, a $3 billion backlog hit.

Boeing's DAE listing on its order and deliveries website no longer show the 777-300ER and 787 orders booked in by the carrier, along with the airframer's undisclosed cancellation for 10 777-300ERs and 15 787s. Additionally, the listing also shows the sale/leaseback of 747-8Fs and 777Fs shifted from Emirates Sky Cargo to the DAE. Overall, DAE has slashed that 200 aircraft order by 25% amid its shaky financial status.
DAE-Jul10-backlog.jpgScott Hamilton at Leeham Co. has a fascinating chart mapping DAE's deliveries over the next decade using data from Ascend. DAE's deliveries grow steadily, rising toward 2017, peaking at 55 then come down sharply by 2019. Yet that anticipated steady growth leading up to that peak is what really matters.

What happens to the remaining orders in its near term backlog is somewhat unclear, but with production rates rising on virtually every Boeing and Airbus assembly line in the years to come and any sign of cracking in demand from the Middle East could trouble the waters for commercial aircraft manufacturers. 

Flight International penned a commentary shortly after the DAE order was announced in November 2007, asking some less-than-popular questions about the rapid regional growth and whether or not its grand ambition was truly sustainable. While the fleet and traffic growth of the region's airlines has continued unabated, nearly three years later, the comments ring eerily prophetic:
As more and more prospectors join this latter-day gold rush, the question few dare to ask is: can it all be sustainable? What would the effect be of a major Islamist terrorist attack on Dubai's image as the anything-goes, safe and prosperous Switzerland of the Middle East - and thus the growth trajectory of Emirates? What happens if the US credit crisis causes a slowdown in Asian economies - the expansion of which is driving much Gulf-based cargo traffic? Despite all the new airlines emerging the wider region, are there really enough takers for yet another leasing company with a fleet in the hundreds of aircraft? And, if the business is there, why are the likes of GECAS and ILFC not already plugging that gap?

These did not seem to be matters troubling the Dubai air show's big spenders last week, who are so bullish about their market predictions and their abilities to meet them that sceptics seem like wild-eyed prophets in the wilderness.
Photo Credit Boeing
A little Friday laugh for everyone as The Onion tries its hand at aerospace journalism, and single-handedly wins the week.
Boeing Lays Off Only Guy Who Knows How To Keep Wings On Plane
August 6, 2010 | ISSUE 46•31

CHICAGO--With the airline industry continuing to suffer under the ongoing recession, the Boeing Company was forced Monday to lay off Al Freedman, the only guy left at the corporation who knows how to keep wings from falling off planes. "We used to have a whole team of engineers who knew how to make the wings stay on, but those days are long gone," Boeing CEO James McNerney, Jr. said. "We'll make it work, though. The wings are not necessarily the most important part of the plane, anyway." McNerney added that at least they were able to save the job of the guy who knows how to prevent jet engines from exploding.
787-FAL-Cranes1.jpg787-FAL-Cranes2.jpg.jpgWhen Boeing first envisioned its 787 final assembly line, it sought to eliminate its reliance on overhead cranes to move large structural assemblies into join positions to promote the leanest possible manufacturing environment. For the first several aircraft the company assembled this was the case. Initially, the 787's wings were slid along the floor of the 40-26 building into position for final body join, however according to its 787 action movie trailer "We Build The Dream", overhead cranes are now being used to moved the 787's wings from laydown to wing-to-body join.

The change, which factory sources say was implemented in the Spring of 2009 was initially denied by Boeing, which maintained that overhead cranes were not a part of the 787 assembly plan. The airframer's own video paints a different picture, and is believed to rapidly accelerate the process of moving the wings into the wing-to-body join position.
CX-A350_560.jpgHeavy speculation this week about the future of Cathay Pacific's long-haul fleet plans came to an end this morning with an announcement by the Hong Kong-based carrier to order 30 A350-900 and six 777-300ER aircraft. When firmed, the A350 backlog will grow to 565 orders.

Every so often in this industry, an order comes along that could be considered a "game changer", a moment that causes the players to stand up and evaluate the course of an aircraft program. It was seen when Singapore airlines ditched the MD-11 in favor of the A340-300 (pdf archive), and again when it ditched the A340-300 in favor of the 777. The 1996 United A320 deal was of the same ilk, with Boeing opting to launch the 737 Next Generation family in the face of growing narrowbody competition from Airbus.

Is this order cut from the same cloth? Will an A350-900 order of this magnitude sway Boeing's thinking on how to address the future of the 777? Is Cathay's order for the -300ER and not the A350-1000 also telling? Did Cathay seeing the -1000 the same way as Emirates' Tim Clark does?

Photo Credit Airbus
Mary Kirby posted a series of photos this morning of the inside of Irkut's MS-21 mock up from Farnborough. I did a double take when I saw the flight deck mock up, which at first glance appears to be a hybrid of Boeing and Airbus flight decks. The influence appears to be heavily weighted toward the 787, with its five primary display layout, vertical FMC keypad, and an overhead panel structure which is virtually the same shape. To a lesser exent this aircraft, however, features Airbys attributes, such as a sidestick and the same engine start switches as the A320. Perhaps imitation is the finest form of flattery?

ms-21 9 small.JPGPhoto Credit Will Horton


Missing from Thomson Airways' Farnborough unveiling of its new 787 interior was the total number of seats (I couldn't find it if it is there) the carrier would be putting on the new twin jet. Using a graphic and a video the airline published along with its release, I did a little bit of math. Thomson, which will get its first of eight 787s in early 2012, will seat 288 passengers in a two-class configuration.

Of the airlines to share their plans for their interior configurations, Thomson will - by far - have the second highest capacity for its long-range 787 operations, after the two class 313-seat arrangement selected by Qantas' Jetstar. Based on what Thomson has released thus far, it appears a forward Premium Economy cabin with seven-abreast seating will accomodate 47 passengers, with two rear nine-abreast zones featuring 150 and 91 seats, respectively.

thomson-airways-dreamliner-information.jpgBoth cabins will feature Panasonic IFE and broadband connectivity and it appears the airline is the first 787 customer to disclose that they have selected the door two lit archway, which is presently an option on the aircraft.

Thomson is only the third carrier to disclose how it will be filling its 787s, with Ethiopian and Continental seating 270 and 228 in two-class business and economy configurations, respectively. British Airways is rumored to be seating as few as 183 in three classes, while 787 launch customer All Nippon Airways says it will have long-range and high-density configurations, declining to disclose the capacity of either.

Video and Photo Credit Thomson Airways

(UPDATE: I did a little more math and counted correctly this time. Total number of seats on board in 288 not 297, which still makes this the highest capacity 787 to-date for international
operations)
CFM56-7BE RED_560.jpgFor the third time in two weeks, CFM (GE & Snecma) and GE have announced certification of new engine variants. Most recently on July 30, CFM was granted certification of the updated CFM56-7BE engine, which will enter service in mid-2011 on the Boeing 737.

The -7BE evolution engine will fly in the fourth quarter on a Continental 737-800, as Boeing looks to deliver at least 2% improvement in fuel burn to its existing single-aisle product line. The company test flew the new nacelle design in August 2009.

The engine features a revised high pressure turbine guide vane diffuser, improved high pressure turbine blades, disc and a revised forward outer seal, along with improvements low pressure turbine blades, vanes, discs and case.

While CFM outwardly states that the engine will contribute 1% improvement on its own, testing has found that the engine will deliver 1.6% improvement in fuel burn. An additional 1% will come from aerodynamic refinements to the exterior of the 737.

The CFM56-7BE engine is part of a host of improvements to the 737, which also include the Boeing Sky Interior, which will enter service with flyDubai, the first of 37 customers later this year. 

Additionally, General Electric announed certification of the GEnx-2B and CF34-10A engines for the Boeing 747-8 and Comac ARJ21 aircraft on July 22.

Graphic Credit CFM

While the airline is still mum on its plans on where to deploy its first of 55 787-8s, All Nippon Airways plans to configure the new twin for both long and short-range missions.

Shuichi Fujimura, ANA senior vice president Europe Middle East and Africa and general manager, London, says that the long range configuration for international long haul will be configured with three classes of first, business and economy seating, similar to the airline's 777-300ERs.

The carrier initially planned a four-class configuration on its 777-300ERs with the introduction of new first, business, economy and premium seating, but was later forced to opt for three classes with Japanese seat-maker Koito under investigation for falsifying safety data.

Fujimura also says the carrier also plans a "condensed configuration" for the domestic Japanese market, a potential replacement for the short-range 787-3s ANA had 28 on order up until January.

Boeing vice president of marketing, Randy Tinseth, said in February that the 787-8 was more efficient than the 787-3 on routes over 200nm.

Fujimura declined to say how many passengers would be accommodated in either 787 configuration.

Additionally, Fujimora says the final decision on where the first 787s would fly, has yet to be decided. ANA has previously said that it first fly to a domestic destination starting at the beginning of 2011, later branching out to international destinations in Europe or North America in March.

Photo Credit Chris Heaton

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