September 2010 Archives

NAGOYA -- Boeing's jumbo 747-8 freighter schedule has buckled again following an assessment of the cumulative impact of an underperforming aileron actuator and structural flutter.

The delay, which slips the first delivery to Cargolux from late 2010 to mid-2011, adding six months the already delayed delayed program, while providing another black eye to the Boeing at a time when it continues to work to restore its credibility with suppliers and customers following a string of delay announcements to the 747 and 787 programs.

Boeing says a fifth flight test aircraft will be added to the flight test program. The company did not disclose which production aircraft would serve in a flight test role, though Boeing already added a fourth, RC503, to the certification campaign in July.

The airframer first hinted at a potential slip to 2011 at the Farnborough Air Show, and slowly confirmed details as to the cause of the program's troubles.

The 747-8F flight test campaign, which kicked off on 8 February, has been beset by on-going technical discoveries, including a vibrating outboard landing gear door, and most recently two primary issues: a limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of the inboard aileron power control unit (PCU) manufactured by Nabtesco, which has now largely been resolved, and a 2.4Hz structural flutter that occurs at a mid-weight near cruise speed.

The airframer says: "while neither issue requires structural changes to the airplane, they have led to disruptions to certification testing, which the program was unable to offset within the prior schedule."
 
Boeing has tasked RC522 to test a fix for the flutter with a technique the company has dubbed the 'outboard aileron modal suppression system' or OAMS, an engineering law that is designed to dampen the flutter and improve the stability and control of the aircraft.
 
"We understand the issues encountered in flight test and are working through the solutions," says Pat Shanahan, Boeing vice-president, airplane programs.

Shanahan, who in addition to his responsibilities overseeing the company's commercial program, has taken a direct program management role on the 747-8, following the 28 August ousting of program vice president and general manager, Mohammad 'Mo' Yahyavi.
 
The schedule for Boeing's first 747-8I, currently in wing to body join, was not altered, with first flight and entry into service holding at first and fourth quarter 2011, respectively.

Previous delays to the 747-8F program were announced in November 2008 and October 2009.

NAGOYA -- Good morning from one end of the 787 supply chain. I arrived here Nagoya, Japan on Wednesday afternoon today after a quick flight from Busan. The next two days will include visits to the Japanese Heavies; Mitsubishi, Kawasaki and Fuji. As quick refresher: Mitsubishi makes the wings, Kawasaki makes Section 43 forward center fuselage and Section 45 wheel well, Fuji makes the Section 11 center wingbox and integrates the wheel well to create Section 45/11.

All sections are delivered to the US via Dreamlifter. Section 43 and Section 45/11 are flown together to Charleston for integration with Italian Sections 44 and 46, while the wings make their way to Everett for the final join to the fuselage.

That being said, there's a lot going on the 787 universe this week, so let's get right to it:

Rolls-Royce Presents Trent 1000 Recovery Plan
The Seattle Times and Bloomberg reported on interviews with Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh on the state of the pending Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 investigation and resolution. Albaugh says that the company will begin pouring over Rolls-Royce's resolution for the intermediate pressure turbine issue that caused the August 2 engine failure. Albaugh was optimistic that the RR solution would address the issue.

Airplane Six Just About Ready To Fly
Here in Asia, George Maffeo, vice president of 787 supplier management, told us that ZA006 is likely to fly "within the next week". Program sources indicate that first flight of final dedicated 787 flight test aircraft - the second powered by GEnx-1B engines - is slated to fly on or around October 5. This date has been sliding backward and forward, so October looks to be the month for ZA006, just not sure exactly when.

Schedule Float Nearing An End
Parts for Airplane 28 have been arriving this week in Everett from Wichita and Charleston, marking the end of the 18-manufacturing day float in the 787 production schedule. The float was intended to allow suppliers to further catch up and deliver structural sections to a higher level of completion of assembly. Factory sources say one frequently missing item from 787 shipsets, passenger doors, have arrived installed on the center fuselage of Airplane 28.

Forward fuselage Section 41 arrived from Wichita on Monday, followed by the center fuselage from Charleston on Tuesday. The restart of deliveries also marks a step increase in 787 production to just under three 787s built per month.

Also, when the 787 line advances on Sunday to make way for Airplane 28, Boeing will officially begin storing 787s by the new K1 taxiway and Kilo North Ramp by Future of Flight. Five ANA (14, 15, 18), JAL (21) and RAM (19) 787s are expected to find their way over for extended storage.

Airplane Eight Gets Its Motors
In other Trent 1000 engine news, Boeing's eighth 787, ZA101, the second production aircraft slated for ETOPS ground testing, received its engines from Rolls-Royce earlier this week. Serial numbers 10018 and 10019 have been fitted under the wings of ZA101, which will eventually be delivered to ANA.

Max Energy RTO Tests A Wrap
All indications coming from outside and inside Boeing say the weekend's max brake energy rejected take off tests were passed with flying colors, which is an ironic pun because ZA001 never left the ground during its two-day trials at Edwards Air Force Base in California. With the choice of two different carbon brakes from Messier-Bugatti and Goodrich, the tests were split between last Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Airplane 9 Gear Swings
In an indication of nearing completion, Airplane Nine, the lead production ETOPS aircraft, underwent gear swing tests on Monday evening.

Program sources say the aircraft has been outfitted with two zones of economy class seating. One forward zone with eight-abreast seating between doors one and two, and a second rear zone between doors three and four with 96 eight-abreast economy seats. Adding that the outboard seats are laid out with 32in of seat pitch, while the center seating is configured at 31in. Whether or not this will be one of the two the final configurations for ANA's 787 remains unclear, however, it appears Airplane Nine will be delivered in a high density configuration for domestic operations. Though, what is going in between doors two and three remains unknown.

In other Boeing news...

747-8F Schedule Revision
All signs point to an announcement coming later this week or next week. Delay estimates range anywhere from three to nine months.

Re-Engining 737 Not Dead, Just Delayed Until 2011
In those same Seattle Times and Bloomberg articles, Albaugh has said that the 737 customer base has overwhelmingly voted in favor of a new narrowbody over a re-engined aircraft. Albaugh indicated that the decision could slip in to 2011, but the lack of enthusiasm and urgency from Boeing is a good sign of where the airframer's head is at.

747-8F Flutter Fix Testing
RC522 has been flying the flutter track over eastern Washington the past week evaluating a new fix for the 2.4Hz structural flutter that has contributed to the significant delay in the 747-8F program's first delivery. The fix called OAMS - outboard aileron modal suppression - provides structural dampening and seeks to restore the full range of stability and control of the aircraft at all weights and speeds.

747-8I Wing Body Join
RC001 is in the wing body join position inside Building 40-22 undergoing systems installation ahead of the final body join which will begin in mid-October.

BUSAN -- Good morning from the Korean peninsula! I'll put a big disclaimer on this and say I honestly don't know if this is real, but I thought it was most certainly worth sharing. This photo, which appears to be taken with a cell phone camera, was posted on Flickr on Tuesday morning and may show the first United/Continental merged livery in the flesh. This wouldn't be the first time a merged livery shot has been prematurely outed by a cell phone camera.

It is believed that a Continental 737-900ER (N53442) is the first to receive the new merged colors and by the looks of that photo, it certainly is a -900ER. What do you think?

Hat tips to Gordon Werner and @jnjuisai and @onemileatatime

BUSAN -- Good morning from the South Korean southern port city of Busan! I'll be here for the next day and a half visiting KAL and KAI before we head to Nagoya on Wednesday. Needless to say, this busy week is only going to get busier. 

Posting might be more infrequent than I would like with limited Internet access, but I wanted to share a video I shot yesterday on my rainy departure from Haneda climbing into a beautiful late afternoon sunshine over Japan. Worth noting that is is the HD first video I've shot, edited and uploaded entirely on my phone. With wi-fi access, I should be able to produce and share more of these videos.

TOKYO -- After spending the night near Narita I made my way toward the Japanese equivalent of La Guardia Airport, the smaller mostly-domestic Haneda Airport. Unlike La Guardia and its two short runways with a vast array of narrowbody aircraft, Haneda features some of the most exotic widebody types in the world including the rare 777-300 and 747-400D. My first leg out of Tokyo will take me to Fukuoka on 747-400D, JA8963, along with 564 of my closest friends. The 747-400D was designed specifically for the Japanese domestic market as a high density transport. Boeing and the Japanese have a long history of adapting long range jetliners for short hops and high cycles. (see also -3, 787) Only ANA and JAL have ever operated the -400D. I'll be in seat 12A for the quick trip south to Fukuoka, after trying my darndest to fly on the upper deck.

Haneda also features one of the best airport model shops I've seen. It was brimming with ANA paraphernalia, including models of the 787 and MRJ90. The airline has branded virtually item imaginable with the Dreamliner logo. There is no shortage of excitement (and patience) from ANA for the 787. Not to mention that Haneda will be the first airport in the world to host 787's first commercial operations.

From Fukuoka I'll have a quick layover and switch to a Korean Air 737-900 for the last leg to Busan and the first 'official' stop of the trip.

Next stop: Korea!

My extended stay at home in Washington, DC was cut a bit short after a last-minute 787 supplier tour was firmed up. For the next week I'll be on the road in Asia, starting in Tokyo then transferring through to Busan, South Korea where the 787's winglets, flap fairings, Section 48 aft tail cone and forward fuselage nose gear wheel well structure are made by KAL-ASD. Later in the week I'll transition back to Japan for a visit to the Japanese heavies in Nagoya where the wings, Section 45/11 center wingbox, and fuselage Section 43 are manufactured by Mitsubishi, Fuji and Kawasaki, respectively. This should prove to be a fascinating week as this the first time the Asian supply base for 787 has invited media to visit since 2006. I'll have updates throughout the week.

In the meantime, I've got my real estate carved out in seat 36K on All Nippon Airways Flight 1 from Dulles to Tokyo.
This 777-300ER, JA801A, is not a new airframe for me. I flew this particular aircraft on my way back from the 2008 Singapore Air Show.

Time to fly. Next to Tokyo!

With the 787 production and flight test program back to normal operations with ZA001 flying again, the spectre of the Trent 1000 engine failure still hangs over the program. While the September 10 engine surge was not related to the August 2 engine failure in Derby, UK, it was a reminder of how the 787's powerplant has moved to the forefront of concerns ahead of the February entry into service with ANA.

Industry officials are becoming increasingly concerned about the potential result of the on-going investigation into the failure. Concerns about the engine's certification, which was granted on August 7, 2007 (07/08/07 on the European calendar), prompted me to ask Boeing if the investigation included an assesment of the basis for certification of the Trent 1000 engine. Here is Boeing's complete response to my question:

The investigation includes a review of safety and continued airworthiness as prescribed by EASA and FAA requirements. The regulatory agencies have methods in place to ensure airworthiness. When the investigation is complete and we have more information about causes and solutions, we will work with the regulatory agencies to comply with the applicable processes. [emphasis mine]

There are a few versions as to what transpired on August 2, with indications all pointing to an oil fire in the high pressure compressor drum leading to a failure of the intermediate pressure (IP) shaft. One industry source says once the IP shaft failed, the mounted IP turbine disk moved rearward, causing its blades to impact the low pressure (LP) turbine inlet guide vanes. The result was the separation of the IP turbine disk, which subsequently spun out of the casing and into the test stand.

The same source adds that the "non-adherence to test procedures" was the root cause of the failure, saying that the "stand crew ran more cold starts in close succession than allowed without purging of fuel and oil that accumulate within the engine in places these fluids are not supposed to be."

That result provides more clarity to the "inappropriate operating regime" statement from Rolls-Royce. Though even with a root-cause potentially identified, the fact that the casing did not contain the failure is of concern. While the test procedures may be at the root of the failure, reconciling all the differing statements is nothing short of confusing, as Rolls-Royce has said it is has been testing an upgrade to the Trent 1000 to "mitigate a component problem."

While a timeline for the investigation's completion is not known, the result will hopefully bring much sought after clarity.

I've perhaps lost count at the number of emails I receive weekly asking me a question I do not have an answer for. The question doesn't bother me in the slightest, the lack of an answer does.

Why has ZA006, the second GEnx-powered 787, not flown yet?

With its first flight now internally slated for early October, the aircraft has slipped again from its original target of June.

I'll admit to having spent a lot of time searching for the answer, chasing leads, digging deeper, only to find explanations and facts that don't line up or cannot be independently confirmed. Some working theories are just that, theories. Collections of facts that lead to certain, uncertain conclusions. The most frequently occurring theory points to arduous paperwork and meeting production level conformity of structure and software for FAA certification.

Boeing simply offers that ZA006 is experiencing non-descript "challenges", but adds the aircraft is not a priority for the Rolls-Royce certification program that is supporting first 787 delivery to ANA in mid-February. The "not a priority" position is an admittedly surprising one after such extended delays in preparing the aircraft for service. The "not a priority" statement has replaced "software" as the official explanation from Boeing.

Boeing's 787 Flight Test website says Airplane Six, which is is not a fully instrumented aircraft, is tasked with electromagnetic effect (EME), high intensity radiated field (HIRF) and extended twin engine operations (ETOPS) testing. All those tests are duplications carried out by another test aircraft, specifically ZA003.

So to answer the original question to explain the delay, I simply don't know how, but I do know that some of those who will read this post do.

The strangest thing happened this morning when I saw a Swedish tweet about low cost carrier Norwegian Air Shuttle considering a 787 purchase for its long range routes.

When Norwegian CEO Bjorn Kjos ordered additional 737s at the Farnborough Air Show this summer, he suggested a nearing decision on the carrier's future long haul fleet. Kjos further elaborated on his plans earlier this week at the Routes convention in Vancouver, but did not make a commitment to a single aircraft type.

Curious as to what the tweet said, I ran the text through Google Translate and came up with a VERY surprising result. Google had taken "Norwegian" and translated it to its low cost competitor easyJet! (click the image below for an expanded version)

As you can see, it translates Norwegian not only once, but twice, in the same sentence. I simply have no earthly (non-sketchy) explanation for why Google Translate would do this, though there must be something about the translation algorithm that prefers Airbus to Boeing. I smell a scandal.

When I sat down to think about the remaining thirteen and a half weeks of 2010, it became immediately apparent how pivotal this time will be for the future of commercial and business aviation. Decisions from Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Bombardier and Gulfstream will shape the industry in 2011 and 2012 in the near term, but these same decisions could guide commercial and business aerospace for the next decade to come.

Well, it's my last leg. This final flight home to Dulles caps the end of about three weeks on the road with station stops in DCA, BDL, ORD, SEA, BOS, KEF, JFK, GRU, SJK, GPX, SDU, GIG, IAD and LAX. I haven't been home for more than about 96 hours since August 25, so getting reacquainted with the address on my driver's license is a top priority. However, my home tonight is seat 21A aboard a United Airlines Boeing 767-300ER (reg anyone?) for my redeye flight back to DC on flight 44. There's still lots to be done (including laundry) as I digest a mountain of information, photos and videos from Pratt & Whitney, Embraer, Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing, along with wrapping up several features for the blog I've been working on for more than a year. The fall will prove to be no less busy with Atlanta, Montreal, China and Dubai on tap, along with decisions on the future of the A320, 737, 777 and E-Jets. But for now a chance to take a breather and close my eyes for a few hours. Catch you on the East Coast.

FlightBlogger out.

LONG BEACH -- Browsing through the new 2010 Airbus Family Figures guide, I noticed that the A320 family aircraft featured renderings with Sharklets. While I was unsurprised to see them on the A319, A320 and A321, Airbus has added them to the smallest member of the family, the A318. At the time they were first announced in November 2009, Airbus had not yet decided if it would offer Sharklets on its 100-seater narrowbody. Is this an artistic representation or a sign of things to come? Would a 32-seat Sharletted A318 from London City to New York-JFK still require that Shannon fuel stop? Is this a move to blunt Bombardier's CS100? An interesting development indeed.

On September 10, Boeing's first 787 flight test aircraft, ZA001, experienced an engine surge of one of its Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines during testing in Roswell, New Mexico. Boeing said in a statement:

ZA001 experienced an engine surge. The replacement engine is already in NM and being installed. Boeing and Rolls-Royce are working together to understand the root cause but initial understanding is that this is an isolated event. There is no impact to other airplanes and no relation to the test-stand incident from earlier.

Sources add the aircraft will return to flying as early as Friday or Saturday with a seasoning flight of the new powerplant, though Boeing declined to offer any forward looking schedule information on when ZA001 would return to braking and stability and control (S&C) testing. Business Week reports that Boeing says "it's too soon to well whether the 787's test schedule may be affected."

An engine surge occurs when "the complete breakdown of pressurized flow through successive stages resulting a flow reversal of the air in the compressor."

This could cause a range of results ranging anywhere between a momentary loss of power all the way to a requirement to shut down the engine.

During development of the Pratt & Whitney PW4000 engine for the 777, the engine suffered a surge while flying under the wing of RA001, Boeing's first 747-100.

This is not the first issue ZA001 has had with its engines, having experienced an uncommanded loss of power in February on one of its two engines due to a sensor malfunction, prompting a diversion to Moses Lake Airport.

UPDATE 3:37 PT: Program sources say the surge occurred near the end of the testing day on September 10th as the aircraft was taxiing out for brake testing at a medium weight condition when a "loud boom" was heard by the crew.

The purpose of the flight tests is to determine the ideal material for acoustically insulating the A350's cabin. Carbon fiber does not attenuate sound the same way as aluminum and requires a different type of insulation between the fuselage structure and the cabin sidewalls.

Airbus cabin office vice president, Jonathan Norris explains that if the airframer had chosen traditional insulation used in an aluminum fuselage, it would require more to achieve the same level of soundproofing in the cabin of a composite fuselage.

Airbus is evaluating different types of acoustic foam that will line the outermost layer up against the carbon fiber skin of the A350, which will then be layered with traditional acoustic blanket like those found in aluminum aircraft.

Additionally, the photo above gives some sense of the size comparison of the A320, A330, A340 family windows in comparison to those of the A350.

Photos Credit Airbus

LONG BEACH -- Yes, I could've called this post Video Blog: Circling Long Beach Harbor in a Grumman Albatross for the best possible search engine optimization, but let's be honest, it was kind of lame. The irony of putting a nose bubble out the front of an aircraft means that you no-longer need any kind of electronic distraction. Lucky for Row 44, Southwest Airlines, Mango (South Africa) and Norwegian Air Shuttle, the only forward looking glass on their aircraft is reserved for the pilots.

That being said, Row 44's Albatross rolled off the line in Bethpage, New York in 1951 and in a previous life served as a trainer for NASA astronauts. Today, the aircraft (N44HQ), which coincidentally has a near identically shaped crown as the 737, carries a Ku-band antenna and blister fairing to test the company's in-flight internet technology. The aircraft has been outfitted with glass avionics and a host of other instrumentation to test the antenna.

For the brief flight over Long Beach Harbor, I grabbed my iPhone 4 and connected to the in-flight wi-fi, posting tweets and photos as we flew. This particular Albatross was fitted with a glass nose bubble for a nearly unrestricted view, including straight down. I'll let the HD video I shot speak for itself.

LONG BEACH -- I'm heading up in connectivity provider Row 44 for a spin around Long Beach Harbor for a demonstration of their Ku-band technology which powers in-flight internet on Southwest Airlines, Mango of South Africa and Norwegian Air Shuttle.

I'll be posting twitter updates and photos right here, so stay tuned for some live uploaded shots of the harbor.

Last week in Everett, two factory fresh Rolls-Royce engines showed up ready to be hung under the wings of 787 Airplane Nine (ZA102/N6066Z). Boeing confirmed the arrival and installation of Trent 1000 serial numbers 10039 and 10037. The installation makes Airplane Nine the first production 787 to receive its engines.

The August 2 uncontained failure of one of the engine originally intended for Airplane Nine sidelined that unit and damaged the test facility, prompting an approximately three to four week slide in delivery of the powerplants to Boeing.

This delay, says Boeing, coupled with the inspections and rework of the horizontal stabilizer, which Boeing expected would push the schedule "a few weeks" into 2011 adds up to first delivery in mid-February as announced on August 27.

While Boeing's plan to use two additional aircraft for ETOPS and functionality and reliability (F&R) testing due to production differences is not new, however Boeing's use of Airplanes Eight (ZA101) and Nine is.

According to an April 2009 flight test briefing, the airframer initially planned to use Airplanes Seven and Eight for "follow on testing" on "structural and electrical changes that will need some certification" to "support the airworthiness certificate on the delivered airplanes." Additionally, those aircraft will be used for production nautical air miles (NAMS) testing to establish the baseline for the fuel economy of the 787 at production weights and configurations.

While Airplane Nine will take part in the flying portion of the ETOPS and F&R testing, Airplane Eight will be used for ground tests. The switch from Airplanes Seven (ZA100) and Eight to Airplanes Eight and Nine, say production sources, is said to be driven by the cannibalization of Airplane Seven of parts to support flight test aircraft.

UPDATE 10:49 AM PT: Boeing confirms that the engines that will power Airplane Nine are Package A standard.

Another look at 787 taking on crosswinds that were 27kts gusting to 39 in Keflavik, Iceland last week. Special thanks to Dabb Films for bringing this to my attention. Also, here are my photos from last week's 30 hour excursion to the North Atlantic.

SAO JOSE DOS CAMPOS -- Like Airbus and Boeing, Embraer has its own year end target for a decision on the future of its commercial product portfolio, the Brazilian airframer now says a re-engined E-Jet may require too much investment to modify the airframe to achieve the efficiency improvements it hopes for.

Carlos Eduardo Camargo, Embraer director of external communications says initial evaluations of a new engine under the wing of its 70 to 110-seat E-Jet family may not yield a great enough benefit to justify its undertaking.

"We really have to see how it works. We have engineers simulating [different configurations] working with the [engine] producers, we obviously do not have a final decision or a final idea on that," says Camargo.

Camargo says key competition from the Bombardier CS100, Mitsubishi Regional Jet and Sukhoi Superjet best E-Jet performance by 8-12%. "We have to learn to beat that," he says.

Embraer says its options are re-engining its E-Jet family, a larger clean sheet design in the 110 to 130-seat segment, or doing nothing. The company has all but ruled out developing a large turboprop aircraft and formally shelved the E-195X, a stretch of the largest member of its E-Jet family.

In order to provide a significant enough leap in aircraft efficiency, Camargo says major modifications to the wings, pylons and landing gear would be required to accommodate a large enough fan to deliver the 8-12% improvement in fuel burn the company requires.

However, that investment could negate the benefit, says Camargo who adds aerodynamic modifications to the wings, including Boeing 787-style raked wingtips, instead of today's blended winglet to improve efficiency, remains an options while maintaining the GE CF34-8E/10E engine under the wing of the E-170/190 aircraft families.

Engine maker Pratt & Whitney, which is offering a variant of its geared PurePower PW1000G family says "We could achieve fuel burn improvement with a GTF with an installation on today's E190 with no changes, however, in order to optimize performance and achieve double-digit benefits for a re-engining, an engine with a larger fan is required."

With the larger bypass ratio key to improved fuel efficiency, the larger front fan requirement is necessary for a GE/CFM or Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engine offering.

Adding, "We agree that Embraer would have to make modifications to its aircraft, including changes to the landing gear, in order to accommodate an engine with a larger fan.  We have been working closely with Embraer to study optimized installations to achieve the greatest benefits."

When it set out to evaluate all its options for the future of its narrowbody product, Boeing established three potential goal posts for itself: An all new aircraft, a re-enginged 737, or leave the venerable workhorse alone, avoiding a costly investment against a re-engined Airbus A320 and Bombardier's CS100.

While its final end-of-year decision has yet to be announced, the company's thinking around its future plans have evolved significantly over the past year. As it stands today, Boeing is entertaining a fourth option, dubbed by Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Jim Albaugh, as the 737 Next Generation Plus or 737NG+.

Albaugh's comments on the upgraded jetliner came on Tuesday at an internal company webcast at the company's Renton, Washington facility. The NG+, while lacking specifics, would incrementally improve the 737 family without the significant investment of a new powerplant, say those familiar with his comments.

Any improvements for the 737NG+ would be incorporated beyond the already-announced Sky Interior, aerodynamic improvements and CFM56-7BE engine planned for introduction between October 2010 and mid-2011.

The strategic chief of the company's commercial unit believes that the improvement in direct operating cost yielded for a re-engined A320 would be limited to just 3-4%, bringing it in line with today's 737. Boeing's marketing of the 737 has maintained that the twin jet holds an overall advantage over its European competitor. With this logic, the sources add, Albaugh contends a 737NG+ would sell well against a re-engined A320, establishing a bridge to the all-new Boeing narrowbody in the 2020s.

When approached for comment, Boeing declined to address Albaugh's remarks on the 737NG+ directly, saying only the evaluation of potential aircraft improvements - including a new engine - are ongoing.

Airbus, as well as engine makers, contend the improvement yielded with new engines would be in the 13-14% range, after factoring in the 1-2% lost on airframe modifications, far beyond the number touted by Albaugh. Additionally, it is not clear what assumptions were supporting his claim, nor what portion of any potential improvement was eaten up by the $7 to $8 million price premium the new engine option would bring.

Though for Boeing, re-engining has fallen out of favor, with CFO James Bell saying recently:

And we have looked at the re-engining, and we will continue to study it, but right now it looks like the engine could get to 10% to 15% more efficient, but it is not flow-through efficiency. When you add the additional weight associated with the change in the design of the airplane and you add the cost, it looks more like a single-digit improvement, which we don't believe is something that our customers are interested in, in going through a re-engine and having a mixed fleet for just that minimal improvement in performance.

But I can tell you right now, our customers have not shown a real interest in a re-engine airplane.

Pratt & Whitney CEO David Hess said today at the Reuters Aerospace and Defense Summit in Washington, DC that it was by no means a forgone conclusion that both Boeing and Airbus would take the same path on re-engining.

"It's conceivable they both could go different ways," he said.

With agreements already inked between CFM and Pratt & Whitney establishing the technical foundations of re-engining the A320 family, industry sources say that all signs point to a nearing finalization of the Airbus engineering study, launching the NEO (new engine option) program.

KEFLAVIK -- When ZA002's sistership, ZA003 (N787BX), flew into Eglin Air Force Base for hot and cold soak testing in April, flight test crews rolled the 787 into the C-5 Galaxy sized hangar, shut the doors, and turned down the thermostat.

When you're chasing crosswinds at Keflavik Airport in Iceland, a dial to control the weather is a luxury not afforded the crews accompanying ZA002 (N787EX). For the 787's first round of international remote testing, flight test teams had to bring their patience and the list of Plan B ground tests should Mother Nature not cooperate.

To give a sense of the moving target that is crosswind testing, as of last Monday, Boeing first planned last week's 787 event for Thursday to include an opportunity to watch ZA002's maneuvers from a taxiway next to the runway. As the week rolled on, it became apparent Thursday's winds wouldn't materialize and the testing was shifted to Friday afternoon.

By Thursday afternoon, the Friday afternoon crosswind flight had turned into Friday morning crosswind flight with a low probability of a second block in the afternoon. As I waited at the rental car counter at 6:45 AM on Friday having just stepped off an Icelandair 757-300, ZA002 was climbing out of 10,019ft Runway 02 to start nearly five hours of testing that would evaluate the stability and control of the aircraft. The second 787 test aircraft crabbed through the wind performing full stop landings and missed approaches as the METAR showed sustained winds blowing at 27kts and gusting to 39kts.

To put those figures in context, American Airlines allows its pilots to hand fly their largest aircraft up to a 30 knot crosswind component.

For the 787, which has dual heads up displays (HUD), pilots will be able to see the flight path vector without looking down at the primary flight display. For further control in low visibility take off and landing (LVTO) situations, the flight director guidance cube and flightpath vector symbol on the HUD will provide visual cues to pilots. This allows the pilot to fly the apporach by keeping the flight path vector at the desired descent angle for a stable touchdown.

By mid-day, ZA002 was back on the ground and ready to meet the assembled group of Icelandic media and this lone aviation blogger. As we arrived at the aircraft, which was parked at a dedicated spot on the southeastern side of the field, the winds began to pick up again, with spitting rain and winds strong enough to get the Trent 1000s bouncing as the fans looked as though they were spinning at idle.


Our hour with ZA002 was significantly abbreviated as flight test crews scrambled to pre-flight 787 and take advantage of the steady increasing winds. ZA002 with its door closed and chocks pulled waited on the ramp. When you're waiting for the green light from Mother Nature to fly, sometimes it's just best to close your eyes for a moment and grab a quick snooze.

While the winds were most certainly howling, they weren't howling in the right direction, gusting just short of the required crosswind component needed for testing. A couple hundred feet above the runway the winds were sufficient, but as the closer the 787 would have gotten to the grooved asphalt runway, the weaker the winds got curtailing any chance of a second block.

So goes another day in flight test.

ZA002 is expected to ferry back to Boeing Field on September 8.

KEFLAVIK -- In a country just 4-5 hours from the US and under three from Europe, Iceland is the alternate airport for the dozens of 747s, 777s, A340s, 767s and A330s that cross the North Atlantic each day.

Yet for the flag carrier that serves the planet's newest landmass, the 757 is king. The narrowbody workhorse known for its overpowered engines and rocket-like takeoffs is the heart and soul of Icelandair, which flies a mix of 13 two-class wingletted -200s (176 seats), as well as a single stretched -300s (224 seats). While carriers like Continental, Delta, American and even British Airways have found their 757s fill a transatlantic niche, Icelandair has known that one carrier's niche is another backbone.

While the fleet's newest aircraft was built in 2002 - its 757-300 (TF-FIX) - the carrier's fleet of 757-200s are an average of 16 years old. Icelandair CEO Birkir Gudnason was interviewed by Flight International sister publication Airline Business in July and shared his thought on the future of Icelandair's fleet:

'On the fleet front, Icelandair is looking at an eventual replacement for its 757s. As many 757 operators know, this is not a straightforward task. "The 757 is the perfect aircraft for our network and location," says Gudnason. However, in the 2015-2020 timeframe, the phase out of the 757s will need to start. "We are in that process now with an order to be placed in 2012 or 2013," he says.

Icelandair is looking at aircraft with 150 or more seats and might even split the order between two types as there is no one aircraft that can do the job it wants at present, says Gudnason. One solution could be to lease aircraft from its sister company, Icelease, which is listed as having three Boeing 787 purchase options, but no decision has been made on this possibility, he notes.''

This is no easy decision for a carrier that made its name on O&D traffic through its Keflavik hub. Indirectly, the carrier's role in the North Atlantic is not entirely different from that chosen by Emirates strategy with Dubai. Connect two distant cities within four to eight hours of its hub while provide easy transfer access and layovers long enough to provide passengers to see and spend money in your country. Yes, there are obvious differences, but the foundations remain the same.

But back to the dilemma facing Icelandair. Much has been said about the 757 replacement market by Boeing and Airbus, with offers of the 737-900ER and A321 to replace the aging single aisle. Though as has frequently been said, the 4000nm range of the 757 with its 201-seats in two classes, has no equivalent in the market today.

Boeing and Airbus are making a hard play to be the 757 replacement aircraft, but its 737-900ER and A321 still lack the legs to capture the 4000nm market. One of the benefits of the 757's design is found in the optimization of its configuration, specifically the fact that the aircraft doesn't have to carry fuel to carry fuel. On, flights between 3,500-4,000nm aircraft carry just the fuel needed for the trip, unlike longer-haul flights that carry extra fuel to accommodate the added fuel weight of the aircraft.

The addition of sharklets to the A321 and the CFM56-7BE engine and aerodynamic improvements to the 737-900ER will provide each a 3.5% and 2.5% improvement in fuel burn, respectively. These are near term improvements with sharklets available in 2013 and the -7BE engine available in mid-2011. Airbus claims 3,200nm range with max passengers and Boeing claims 3,265nm, each with two aux tanks as options, getting each within about 80% of the 757's range.

These options will be available for its fleet renewal and the range of both may just barely meet the requirements for Icelandair's longest route (3148nm) from Keflavik to Seattle, which the carrier started last year after SAS pulled its Copenhagen flight.  

Though with 2015 to 2020 in mind, the conversation shifts significantly to what Boeing and Airbus are planning for the next round of their dueling narrowbodies. 

A recently released a study by Air Insight examining the operating cost improvement of an A321 with Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engine hanging under its wing. Air Insight says the improvement in operating cost justifies the A321 be the first, not the second, member of the A320 family to receive new engines.

Airbus is keenly aware of the dilemma Icelandair and carriers like United, Delta, Continental, American and US Airways face as their fleets of 757s - at an average of 17 years old - ready for retirement. Over the past year, Airbus has sharpened its focus to capture this replacement market.

The report claims a 15% improvement in SFC over the existing CFM56-5B and IAE V2500A engines that power the A320 family today and would add a significant range improvement, or equivalent fuel savings, over today's routes. P&W's Bob Saia, vice president next generation product family, estimates the overall improvement in fuel burn would be in the range of 13-14% once the aircraft is adapted for the new powerplant.

John Leahy, Airbus chief operating officer customers, says the NEO (new engine option) would mean four possible choices for customers, with today's two existing V2500A and CFM56 choices along with a P&W (possibly IAE) geared engine and a CFM Leap-X option. 

Boeing is not sitting still either and has said replacing the 757 is part of Mike Bair's 737 Advanced Development study going on now, however, any new narrowbody would almost certainly not be available on the near-term end of Gudnason 2015 timeframe. Company CFO James Bell indicated recently that the re-engining of its 737 would yield only a single digit improvement for customers, potentially indicating further short term improvements to the type coupled with a longer-term clean sheet design moving forward.

For Icelandair, with no perfect match to its 757s, going from a single type to two different types to capture its routes today, as well as growth for tomorrow, would change the airline's operations significantly. With two aircraft types, overall maintenance and pilot training requirements would undercut Icelandair's low cost base and significant flexibility.

Whatever the carrier decides to do with its fleet, Icelandair's 2012 decision may be a bellwether as the industry looks to replace an aircraft that today remains irreplaceable.

Photo Credit Thomas Becker

KEFLAVIK -- I finally have had a chance to go through some of my early shots of today's 787 crosswind testing here in Iceland. Here's an early preview of what I promise will be many, many more to come.

Sent from my iPad

KEFLAVIK -- The title of the post really covers it. ZA002 is in the right place at the right time with the winds here at Keflavik Airport in Iceland sustained at 27kts and gusting to 39kts out of the east-southeast. Boeing's second 787 test aircraft has been flying since about 7am here and the morning block of crosswind testing is continuing right now with about seven or eight takeoffs and landings so far to runway 20. ZA002 chief pilot Randy Neville has been at the controls for many of this mornings maneuvers in blustery Keflavik. More from Iceland later.

I write this entry from a Boeing 757-300, the 1004th of the Renton line, registered to Icelandair as TF-FIX. I flew to Boston this afternoon to catch ICE630. My destination tonight is Keflavik where ZA002 has been since Tuesday. Boeing is holding a media event for 787 crosswind testing on Friday. It's going to be a whirlwind 24 hours, but I'll have a chance to get face to face with a crabbing Dreamliner. Next stop: Reykjavik.

When Boeing first unveiled its 787 final assembly line, the blue and yellow Mother of All Tooling Towers stood as a hulking symbol of a radical lean production philosophy required for the composite jetliner.

Now, as Boeing seeks to balance its own role amidst an historic global production rate increase, the MOATT is likely to become both a symbol of the company's production missteps and of a more recent push to conventionalize as Boeing struggles to complete a long-awaited recovery.

Productions sources say the MOATT will be retired and replaced by old-fashioned cranes as the company continues to balance the 787's revolutionary potential with practicalities of production.

Today, Boeing's 787 final assembly line is stocked with the 24th, 25th, 26th and 27th production aircraft for early customers ANA, Air India, Air India and JAL, respectively. The line shows both its maturity and immaturity, with Airplane 26's fuselage sections fully painted in white primer, yet the aircraft also lacks its horizontal stabilizer, the victim of workmanship issues by Alenia Aeronautica.

Airplanes Seven, Eight, Nine and Ten at various stages of assembly.

In another effort to avoid a further entry into service slide of the 787, Boeing is reportedly adding four flight test aircraft to the fleet. According to a report by Buckingham Research, Boeing will add Airplanes Seven through Ten to the flight test campaign. All told, The Rolls-Royce test fleet will grow to eight. Airplanes Seven through Nine are all destined for ANA, while Airplane Ten will be delivered to LAN. The report suggests that the additional four aircraft will take part in ETOPS and functionality and reliability (F&R) testing, suggesting that the aircraft will not require the extensive instrumentation unlike the first six 787s.

ZA102, Airplane Nine, was set to join the flight test campaign this fall, but was derailed following the uncontained engine failure of the aircraft's Trent 1000s during a ground test in Derby, UK. Aviation Week's Guy Norris reports that the August 2 failure was traced to a build up of oil inside engine.

UPDATE: LAN has selected Rolls-Royce Trent 1000s, not General Electric GEnx-1Bs, as previously posted. I confused LAN's aircraft with Airplanes 17 and 19 for Royal Air Maroc, which were initially allocated as Trent 1000-powered 787s, but were fitted with GEnx pylons during the assembly process.

UPDATE 4:40 PM ET: Boeing statement on the Buckingham Research report:

There will be limited testing on two additional airplanes for a total of eight airplanes (not four for a total of 10). The additional testing is driven by the requirement that some of the testing be done on airplanes in production configuration as opposed to flight test configuration. One airplane will do some ground testing. The other will do some flight testing.

Just to close the loop on the not so subtle intersection of Russian aircraft and politics, Aeroflot announced today it intended to begin taking deliveries of the 150-seat Irkut MS-21 starting in 2016, which appears to make the carrier the launch customer for the type.

In a letter to Putin, chief executive Valery Savelyev specifies the airline's acquisition plans up to 2020. Aeroflot says it aims to acquire 40 Sukhoi Superjet 100s, 11 Antonov An-148s and 25 An-140s before 2016. The aircraft will be used to modernise the fleets of Aeroflot and six associate carriers, of which it is taking over management control.

In addition, Savelyev says Aeroflot is prepared to take up to 50 MS-21s between 2016 and 2020. This all-new airliner is designed to be a viable Russian alternative to the existing single-aisles from Airbus and Boeing in the 130- to 190-seat category, and is due to enter service in around five years.

While I don't speak a word of Russian, Irkut's MC-21 highly-stylized marketing video provides an interesting look at the plans for the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G-powered aircraft with its three-variant family. The initial 150-seat MS-21-200 will seat 150, the -300 with capacity for 180 passengers, and the -400 with seating up to 210. The 300 appears to be a simple stretch of the fuselage, while the -400 will incorporate a further fuselage stretch and an expanded wing span, leading and trailing edge.

The order that put the 8 in 787 has taken another turn.