FlightBlogger Aerospace Industry Fall Preview

Delay Fatigue
After enduring years of delays from Airbus and Boeing on the A380 and 787, the industry's fatigue with such announcements is apparent. However, by almost all industry assessments, another shoe is set to drop for the 787 with an additional EIS slide, while Airbus's A350 schedule appears to be hanging by a shoestring. While the remainder of 2010 may offer more clarity on the 787 schedule, Airbus's 2011 will be dominated by A350 preparations and big questions about the viability of the mid-2013 EIS date.

Additionally, a final schedule assessment on the 747-8F is due out shortly, and many industry observers expect bad news. While the freighter is at the forefront, what remains unanswered is whether or not a schedule slide on the -8F translates into a slide for the -8I.

Is the re-engining the 737 dead? Maybe, maybe not. While all outward (and inward) appearances point to the demise of fresh powerplants hanging under the wings of the 737 Next Generation family. What Boeing officially decides to do with its narrowbody workhorse to remain competitive against the A320 NEO and CSeries is a point of much speculation. The cost benefit of keeping production, maintenance and engineering costs stable, may outweigh whatever small improved would be derived from new engines. 

Boeing's faith in the 737 is firmly rooted in the backlog, which numbers over 2,000 aircraft. What happens to the growth of that backlog once Airbus launches the NEO will be interesting to watch, and will almost certainly prompt a response from Boeing to counter. However, the question remains: How big will that response be?

For the 777, Boeing has been much quieter, flying below the radar under cover of its Renton-built sibling. While the airframer has not totally disregarded the 305-seat market beyond its niche 777-200LR, it's clear Boeing firmly believes betting on the larger 365-seat 777-300ER is its smartest gamble. With its public forecast of a 2017 EIS for the A350-1000, Boeing is banking on having time to decide.

Emirates CEO Tim Clark says "don't worry about it", but that's hardly consolation to Boeing. The future of the mini-jumbo will reveal itself before year's end, providing a look at the A350/777 landscape to come. Banking on tardiness is hardly a strategy, but the 777 may be to the A350 what the A330 was to the 787.

With the international debut of the G650 coming in October at NBAA in Atlanta, Gulfstream is quietly working on the P42, the airframer's replacement for its highly successful G450/G550 large-cabin business jet line. While we're not likely to see a launch of the product could be more than a year or two away, a final decision by Gulfstream on what will power the P42 is expected in the near future. 

While Rolls-Royce is believed to have been eliminated from the competition, Pratt & Whitney's PW800 and General Electric's NG34 are still in the running. Both powerplants are on the hunt for a launch customer and would give a significant boost for each engine maker's next generation powerplant to find its initial footing in the market. 

E-Jet Enigma

Like Boeing and Airbus, Embraer is faced with a re-engining decision of its own. While it has cooled to the idea of a larger fan under the wing of the E-Jet family as a result of the required modifications, a final decision is expected before the close of 2010. Embraer plainly admits the competitive landscape is significantly more crowded with the Superjet and MRJ coming into the fray.

Further, while a high-bypass fan intended for the Leap-X or PW1000G may not be right for the E-Jets, the NG34 may find another opportunity to directly replace the CF34s that power the fleet today. If Embraer forgoes re-engining altogether and advances a 110 to 130-seat design, the narrowbody market dynamics change rapidly with a direct clean-sheet competitor to the CS100.

Shadowboxing No More

"One or more": That's the word from Bombardier on its prospects for landing additional customers for the CSeries this year. From the outside looking in, so much of this market is the expectations game. While Farnborough largely produced disappointment for Bombardier, its shadowboxing non-existent products made it impossible for airlines to make an informed decision. Once the CSeries gets an opponent, someone should start keeping score.

On the other side of Bombardier's aviation business a will-they, won't-they debate is taking place at the large end of its business aircraft line. The largest, longest-range member of the family, the Global Express XRS, is faced with a choice codenamed the M170. Stretch and re-engine the XRS or go all composite cleansheet to become the Global Express 2. Whatever the decision, Bombardier wants a to return fire at the Gulfstream G650.