NAGOYA -- Not long ago, I wrote about Boeing's 300-seat dilemma and what to do about its declining share of the 777-200ER sized aircraft market. The ascent of the A350-900 had blunted sales for the 301-seat jet, while Boeing's customers swiftly shifted their buying patterns to the larger 365-seat 777-300ER. It appeared judging by the sales figures alone that Boeing had abandoned the -200ER, allowing its -200LR to exist as a ultra-long range niche.Though let me suggest an alternate line of thought. Boeing has already replaced the 777-200ER and its name is the 787-9. Boeing marketeers would say that the 787-9 and 777-200ER sit next to one another in the product family and that a conceptual 787-10, a further stretch, would best fill the role of the -200ER.
While the sales numbers tell one story, the actual specifications of the 787-9 tell a very different one. Let's start in the cabin.
While the 777-200ER airframe is 209ft 1in (63.73m) long, compared to 206ft 1in (62.82m) for the 787-9, passenger cabins are virtually identical with only 23in (59cm) difference in length. While its not a perfect comparison with requirements for lavs and galleys, as well as space around exits, a cross-section that provides nine-abreast seating on both aircraft can provide similar layouts with a 3.2in narrower aisle and 1.3in narrower seat on the -9.
Boeing says that the majority of 787 customers have selected nine-abreast seating in economy, allowing them to go to a near-777-style configuration. At eight or nine-abreast seating in economy, Boeing has created a platform that may be able to compete directly with both the A350-800 and -900. Yes, it snug at nine-abreast, and yes you may lose a row or two in the process, but now let's get under those composite floor grids for the next comparison.
The forward cargo volume of the 787-9 is identical, yes identical, to the 777-200ER. There is room for 2,490sq ft which can accomodate 6 96x125in pallets. In the back of the aircraft, the 787-9 can fit 16 LD-3 containers compared to 14 on the 777-200ER, a difference of 320sq ft. Put simply, belly space is room for revenue that doesn't require a meal and whatever is lost in the cabin can be compensated for underneath.
Now a quick look at performance. Assuming nearly equivalent passenger counts and an increased cargo capacity, the 787-9, a lighter airframe than the -200ER, can fly 8,135nm compared to 7,725nm for the -200ER on
ANA's conversion of 15 787-8s to -9s for high-density domestic operations may be a good indicator of the start of a more overt trend toward replacing the -200 and -200ER sized aircraft with the -9. ANA plans to configure the 787-9s with around 400-seats and while not directly stated, the only other 400-seat domestic configuration in the carrier's fleet is the 777-200 with 418-seats in two-classes.
By 2013 when the 787-9 enters service, ANA's average 777-200, of which the carrier has 16, will be approaching 15 years old. A 777-200 operating in domestic configuration for short hops has significantly more cycles than a -200 or -200ER operating on long-haul missions, causing ANA's -200s to age considerably faster.
As the 787-9 gains more clairty into 2011, we could see Boeing shift the larger Dreamliner into a spot once reserved for the 777-200ER. By all outward appearances the configuration of the aircraft points to its future ambition.
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