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January 2011 Archives

Movie Monday - January 31 - Flight Testing Shuttle Columbia

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 31, 2011 11:05 AM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)

This final week of January and early February offer somber reminders of the incredible risk astronauts have taken to participate in the manned exploration of space and their sacrifice in the line of duty to America's space program. 
January 27, 1967
The crew of Apollo One, Gus Grissom, Ed White and Roger Chaffee, were killed when fire swept through their Apollo One capsule in Florida during a ground test. The mission was intended to be the first in-flight test of the Apollo Command and Service Module.

January 28, 1986
Twenty-five years ago this past Friday, the crew of STS-51L, Dick Scobee, Michael Smith, Ellison Onizuka, Judith Resnik, Ronald McNair, Christa McAuliffe and Gregory Jarvis were killed, when Space Shuttle Challenger solid rocket booster ruptured causing the spacecraft to disintegrate a 72 seconds after liftoff.  

February 1, 2003
Space Shuttle Columbia, flying as STS-107, was destroyed on re-entry over Texas during its 28th mission. Rick Husband, William McCool, David Brown, Kalpana Chawla, Michael Anderson, Laurel Clark and Ilan Ramon, were killed following a 16-day Spacehab microgravity research mission. The accident was traced to an external tank foam strike on the leading edge of the shuttle's wing during liftoff that damage the spacecraft's heat shield. 
This week's Movie Monday takes an incredibly detailed in-depth look at the earliest days of the Space Shuttle program, with a 29-minute 1981 film about STS-2 and the flight testing of the orbiter Columbia. It was to be the first time in spaceflight history that an attempt would be made to launch the same spacecraft for a second time.

The mission, flown by astronauts Joe Engle and Richard Truly, and included the maiden flight of the Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS), better known as the Space Shuttle's Canadian-built robot arm. Mission commander Joe Engle had formerly been a North American X-15 pilot whose flights had taken him above 50mi in altitude, formally qualifying him as an astronaut before his first flight in space on STS-2.

News Analysis: Boeing maps out ten-year product strategy

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 27, 2011 7:50 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
737 Final Assembly Line

777 Final Assembly Line

Following yesterday's comments from Boeing CEO Jim McNerney, it is becoming increasingly clear that Boeing is inching closer and closer toward the implementation of a decade-long strategy to bring a derivative 777 and clean-sheet 737 replacement to market.

The clearest signs yet came yesterday with comments from McNerney that the airframer has all but abandoned re-engining the 737 and instead sees a replacement for its high-volume narrowbody:
If we could come up with the right airplane in roughly the 2019, 2020 timeframe, I personally feel that there's a strong argument that the market will wait for us, not withstanding the re-enginging. Most of the feedback we're getting from customers is alignment with that, but we've got to work through this year what the airplane, more precisely, will look like.

Putting our backlog at risk twice, only makes sense if the airplane wants to be developed in 2025 or beyond. I think what we're learning today about what our customers need and what technologies we have available to us, we are leaning toward development in the 2020 timeframe, but we're going to confirm that as we go through it this year, reserving the option - if we're wrong - as we go through the analysis to re-engine. But I don't think it's going to go that way.
While Virgin America has solidified its role as launch customer for the Airbus A320neo, the competition between the European airframer and Bombardier almost included a third contender, in the form of an all-new aircraft from Boeing, industry sources tell FlightBlogger.

Virgin America says no bid by Boeing was submitted and Boeing as a policy doesn't discuss its dealings with customers or potential customers.

Virgin's commonality-driven competition was unlikely to go Boeing's way, though the timeframe for such an offer of an all-new jet appears to have been "too late" to have been a contender, though it is the airframer's most advance step yet toward formally offering a new aircraft.

While Boeing's earnings call yesterday did not directly address specifics on upgrades to the 777, reading between the lines of McNerney's comments point to new mid-decade derivatives of the company's largest twin jet.

McNerney says fully replacing a 777 and 737 would not come simultaneously and calls the avoidance of such an overlap as "one of the independent variables in the equation." For the coming research and development expenditures required for such a project, Boeing's CEO references "derivatives", but mentions only one specifically, a further stretch of the 787.
New airplane developments, except for the possible derivatives, a [787]-10 would be an example of that, I think those interests tend to be...the derivatives would tend to be in the second half of the decade and then new airplanes would be at the end.
However, Emirates, Boeing's largest 777 customer, says it will begin retiring its older 777s (-200s, -300s and -200ERs) starting in 2017 and hopes to replace each one with 70 777-300ER-sized aircraft (354 seats) for non-payload restricted missions like Dubai to Los Angeles. To meet this requirement and timeline, new 777 variants will be required in the latter part of the decade to meet the carrier's target. 

The extent of the changes remains mightily unclear, though company sources say a common type rating is essential for the next evolution of the widebody, just as it was for the Next Generation 737. Changes ranging from basic fuel burn, manufacturing and maintenance cost improvements all the way to ambitious plans for an all-new composite wing, an additional stretch in a fuselage - also potentially composite - and a major update to the General Electric GE90-115B engine are all on the table.

Ultimately, say company sources, McNerney comments reflect Boeing's long term commercial business plan, which establishes a development path from the 787-8 and 747-8 freighter and Intercontinental delivering in 2011 and 787-9 in 2013; clearing the way for a 787-10 in 2015/2016, an updated 777 in 2017/2018 and concluding with a clean sheet 737 replacement in 2019/2020.

Sources: ANA to see its first 787 in September

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 26, 2011 6:55 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
Boeing 787 Dreamliner N787EX ZA002

My first of a few reports on the Boeing earnings call:
Boeing holds firm to 787 production ramp-up
Boeing aims to deliver a dozen or more 787s in 2011, with industry sources pointing to September for first delivery, while the airframer maintains its original plan of building 10 aircraft per month by the end of 2013.
 
The airframer declined to elaborate on its the third quarter guidance or confirm the September delivery target. However, while reporting its full year earnings, Boeing says it intends to deliver a combined total of between 25 and 40 747-8s and 787s this year, with a roughly 50-50 split in its guidance. Boeing says these deliveries will be a part of the 485 to 500 aircraft produced in 2011.

Boeing 2010 Year-End Earnings Liveblog

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 26, 2011 7:52 AM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
7:30 AM ET: Boeing has released its fourth quarter and full year 2010 earnings. The company says it expects to delivery between 25 and 40 747-8 and 787 aircraft in 2011. Further live blogged coverage of the company's earnings call will begin here at 10:15 AM and on twitter. Please follow @flightblogger & @thedewline for coverage and live analysis of Boeing's commercial and defense businesses.

8:18 AM ET: Boeing shares are down around $3.25 in pre-market trading on the 35% drop in fourth quarter profit and overall 8% decline in full-year revenue due to research and development expenditures for its 787 and 747-8 programs, as well as lower deliveries from a year ago. This comes despite a $3.3 billion in full-year 2010 profit up 152% over the previous year.

9:06 AM ET: A quick closer look at Boeing's estimate for the 25-40 747-8 and 787 deliveries in 2011. Currently, 747-8 production is running somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 airplanes per month, heading to 2/month in 2012, with 10-12 production aircraft already built. Based on these figures, Boeing could deliver (at most) 30 747-8Fs this year, but this assumes a very low level of post-certification rework required on these aircraft.

787 heads south for the winter in search of high and low ground

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 25, 2011 6:39 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
Boeing 787 Dreamliner N787FT ZA005

Earlier today, Boeing's fifth 787, ZA005 left Albuquerque, New Mexico enroute to Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. The first GEnx-powered 787 landed around 5pm local time at the airport, which features the longest runway in the Caribbean. ZA005 is currently undertaking a campaign of high altitude tests at varying temperatures also known as Lapse Rate Takeoff (LRTO) testing, which sources say is being undertaken in three phases.

The first phase, now complete, was a series of tests at Albuquerque International Sunport's 13,000ft long runway that sits at 5,355ft above sea level for the mid-altitude portion of the trials.

ZA005 has returned to sea level for the low-altitude portion of the testing with its visit to the 11,702ft long runway at Rafael Hernandez International Airport in Aguadilla and will remain in Puerto Rico through the week.  

At the close of this week, ZA005 will head to El Alto Airport in La Paz, Bolivia for the final high-altitude portion of the tests. Interestingly, the airport also goes by the name John F. Kennedy International Airport. What distinguishes this particular airport from others in the world is its 13,325ft elevation above sea level and its 13,125ft long runway making it one of the highest points on Earth served by a commercial aircraft. It will also be 787's first time touching down on South American soil.

Movie Monday - January 24 - Frontline: Flying Cheaper

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 24, 2011 6:30 AM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
PBS Frontline journalist Miles O'Brien continued his look at the price of airline industry cost cutting by examining outsourced maintenance operations for commercial aircraft. The piece, which only runs 18 minutes, begins at a show I attended last year, MRO Americas in Phoenix, Arizona and goes on to investigate ST Aerospace's Mobile, Alabama facility where workers allege they are pressured to sign off on non-completed maintenance jobs. 

The discussion is the return of a perennial question in this industry about how to cut costs while maintaining an identical or improving level of safety, a question that extends far beyond maintenance operations.

It is said that an accident occurs when holes in all of aviation's different protective layers line up allowing the opportunity for accident to find its way through. These layers include, but are not limited to, checklists (pilot and crew judgment), inspections (the enforcement and presence of regulation), system redundancy and structural ability to withstand damage (aircraft design). O'Brien leaves the question open as he concludes the piece, though he sees the maintenance companies in question as eroding one of those protective layers.

An engineer whose work has focused on further improving aviation safety says (emphasis theirs):
What this is is an economics issue. When these bad repairs are caught, the part must be repaired/replaced on site (so the flight is delayed) or at a repair facility (so the passengers need to be put on another airplane). This ends up costing more than the original botched repair, plus the cost of not efficiently making profit from that planeload of passengers. 
But, if the money consistently saved by sending most jets to cheaper MROs is greater than the money occasionally spent in the consequences of the improperly-done repairs, then hey, it's worth it. Especially if the airlines trust that [the protective layers] will be enough to keep the repairs from causing an accident, and that this system of double-checks is all that the FAA can reasonably require.
The topic deserves a broader look than the brief examination here, which would hopefully include more than non-US companies operating maintenance facilities domestically, but specifically how maintenance is done in house at airlines around the world, if only to establish a contrast - if one exists - between the two types of facilities. 

Airbus pulls the A350 XWB Andon Cord

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 19, 2011 5:49 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)


In the dogma associated with lean manufacturing, the Andon Cord holds particularly venerable position in industrial circles. The Andon Cord, coined by Japanese car maker Toyota, places the power of stopping a production line in the hands of each and every employee.

According to Toyota, pulling the cord is done when "a problem on any vehicle is spotted...Only when the problem is resolved is the line restarted. This process involves every team member in monitoring and checking the quality of every car produced"

Airbus, in essence, has pulled its own Andon Cord by pushing back the start of final assembly of MSN001, the first A350-900, to the end of 2011.

Seeking to avoid the production debacle that delayed the A380 two years, chief operating officer Fabrice Bregier says: "when you're not ready, you don't move from one step to another."

According to reporting by Flightglobal, Bregier added that no milestones would commence before maturity. In an aerospace world fixated on concurrent testing and production, such a statement echoes a different approach than we've seen in recent years from many manufacturers, including Boeing and the 787.
 
A similar Andon-style Cord has been installed on both the Boeing 737 and 777 moving lines for exactly the same purpose. While the moving line instills urgency in the fix, the act of stopping an assembly line is a daunting action, and it places the responsibility for quality at all levels.

In the early years of A380 and 787 production, both Boeing and Airbus found themselves mired in traveled work, the antithesis of lean manufacturing, that required jobs to be performed out of their originally intended assembly sequence while the design was still in flux.

Boeing in particular still struggles with the rework required to prepare 787s for delivery as it aims for a third quarter certification, though the airframer keeps pulling the cord - halting deliveries to final assembly. Even as it heads well past two dozen airframes still performing rework, have the stops accomplished their stated objective?

Airbus may push back final assembly further and first delivery may slip into 2014 as many expect it to, but Bregier bluntly identifies the choice at hand: "Perhaps it's a bit too demanding but, if we do that, it will be much simpler, and I prefer to take a couple more months at this stage to avoid potentially big problems."

Photo of Note: T-38 chases 787 fuel jettison test

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 19, 2011 3:14 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
As often happens in aviation, there are eyes in the most unlikely places. On Monday, ZA004 restarted 787 certification operations with a test of its fuel jettison system. While high in the skies over Arizona, the system was tested along with one of Boeing's T-38 chase planes. You'll also note the wings are a day-glo red, for a reason that I'm not entirely sure of at the moment. Though my first guess would have to do with visual contrast of fuel venting against the wing. Either way, it makes for a heck of a shot of the 787 against a brilliant blue sky.

ZA004-FuelJettison-AZ.jpg
Photo Credit John Bezosky
Pima Air and Space Museum

Quick Take: More questions than answers with eighth 787 schedule

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 18, 2011 3:25 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)

Original Schedule - May 08, October 07 - 4Q08, January 08 - 1Q09
April 08 - 3Q09, December 08 - 1Q10, August 09 - 4Q10,
August 10 - mid-1Q11, January 11 - 3Q11
Boeing has again placed its stake in the ground for the eighth time, marking the third quarter of 2011 for first delivery of its flagship 787 Dreamliner to Japan's All Nippon Airways, though the company says answers to larger questions will have to wait.

"Anything beyond first delivery is being dealt with at the quarterly results call," says Boeing. 

Boeing's announcement walks a fine line that addresses the uncertainties around the "the work we believe remains to be done" and requirements of the FAA, while simultaneously acknowledging the uncertainty by emphasizing that the updated plan adds additional time to the schedule for tests "that may be needed to complete certification activities".

Here's a brief list of the vital questions that remain outstanding: 

  • Beyond first delivery, how many 787s is the company aiming to deliver in 2011? 
  • Will 180 minute ETOPS certification be achieved along with initial FAA/EASA certification? When will the first 787-9 be delivered? 
  • Is Boeing's plan still to reach 10 deliveries per month in 2013? 
  • How long will it take to rework the existing 787 fleet beyond the electrical hardware and software changes? 
Boeing's fourth quarter and full year 2010 earnings call is scheduled for January 26.

Photo Credit Moonm

Breaking: Boeing sets 787 first delivery to ANA for 3Q11

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 18, 2011 8:53 AM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
Boeing's new 787 schedule is out this morning:
Boeing Sets 787 First Delivery for Third Quarter
EVERETT, Wash., Jan. 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) announced today that it expects delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner in the third quarter of this year. The new delivery date reflects the impact of an in-flight incident during testing last November and includes the time required to produce, install and test updated software and new electrical power distribution panels in the flight test and production airplanes.

FAA returns to 787 flights, maiden production sortie and ZA002 flying Monday (Update1)

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 16, 2011 11:21 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
N1006F, originally uploaded by kpaekilo1.

Boeing will restart 787 certification operations, the first of three major milestones slated for Monday.

Currently based in Yuma, Arizona, ZA004 will re-launch Federal Aviation Administration certification operations for the 787 with a validation of the fuel jettison system, sources tell FlightBlogger. This will be the first flight test for certification credit since ZA002's November 9 fire that placed the regulatory validation of Boeing's new flagship on hold.


Monday will also feature the first flight of a production 787, ZA102, the ninth 787, which wears a white fuselage and All Nippon Airways tail. The aircraft has been re-registered at N1006F, formerly N6066Z, and will fly a standard B-1 production flight, which includes a checkout of the airworthiness of the aircraft and the actuation of the landing gear. This is the seventh 787 to fly since the flight test program began on December 15, 2009.

While it is first slated for a shakedown of all its systems, ZA102 will join the test fleet for the extended twin engine operations (ETOPS) certification before it is delivered to ANA. ZA101, the eighth 787, will primarily operate as a ground test aircraft for the system functionality and reliability testing as part of the ETOPS certification effort.

Lastly, the formerly fire-stricken ZA002 is also expected to rejoin the test fleet Monday with a checkout of the electronic engine control system.

Boeing has yet to announce a revised schedule for first delivery to ANA.

UPDATE 1/17 2:34 PM ET: Program sources say ZA102's first flight has slid to Tuesday at the earliest due to some last-minute trouble-shooting on board the aircraft.

Photos of Note: Sukhoi makes it official with Aeroflot Superjet rollout

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 12, 2011 11:53 AM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
Aeroflot is inching closer and closer to accepting the first Suhkoi Superjet SSJ100-95LR, as the Russian airframer has released the first official photos of the RA-98001. Russian certification of the new regional jet is expected this month, and EASA told Reuters yesterday its stamp of approval will follow in 2012. More photos are available below the fold.




Photos Credit Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company
Continue reading Photos of Note: Sukhoi makes it official with Aeroflot Superjet rollout.

First 747-8I heads for a Friday night factory gauntlet

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 7, 2011 9:12 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
RC001-PowerOn_560.jpg
Don't mind me, I'm not even here, just pretend like I didn't write this at all. Just because I'm technically not supposed to be working doesn't mean I all of a sudden stop loving aviation.

RC001, Boeing's first 747-8 Intercontinental, is spending tonight and tomorrow conducting the first of three systems check-out simulations called gauntlets. The first, known as the factory gauntlet, will begin tonight inside the 40-22 building at the Everett factory which holds the 747-8 final assembly line. You may remember the factory gauntlet from the preparations for 787 first flight in 2009. 

Late Friday night engineers will take the company's largest aircraft through a series of ground tests while the -8I still believes it is on terra firma (as it actually is). That will be followed by the setup of a closed-loop simulation system called the Flight Emulation Test System or FETS, which is used to literally fool the jumbo into thinking it's flying. Of course, the run will be entirely done off of external electrical power as there is not a drop of fuel allowed in the factory. 

The factory gauntlet will simulate a standard B1 flight profile, which is the first test flight all Boeing jets make with company test pilots to evaluate the responsiveness and functionality of the aircraft's systems. Moving into the factory gauntlet comes two months after the aircraft achieved first power-on in November.

After running through the factory gauntlet, RC001 may make a brief appearance outside early next week as it is relocated to its new home inside building 40-23, former home of the now-dismantled of the 787 static test airframe. The remaining two gauntlets, the intermediate and final, will take place on the flight line once the aircraft is powered up and its engines run for the first time.

Now back to vacation.

Photo Credit Boeing

Some thoughts on 2010 and an important programming note

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 3, 2011 1:30 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)


Dear Friends,

Of the fifty-two weeks last year, more than two of them were cumulatively spent airborne covering 165,000 miles over 17 countries on five continents passing through 45 different airport. This page produced 374 posts, 29 videos, 3,033 photos and a potentially obscene number of tweets.

It is with that I say thank you for everything in 2010. I've said it before, but without all of you I'm just a guy talking to himself on the internet. Your unending passion for aviation fuels my own and never fails to inspire me to try and bring you a small slice of the commercial aerospace industry.

So with the two weeks airborne in 2010, I'm going to take the first two weeks of 2011 to stay on the ground. I'm going to be on vacation starting today, stepping away for a much needed breather. I'll return to work on January 18.

Though no exciting destination is planned for this vacation, I intended to reintroduce myself to the city that I call home. I've been estranged from Washington, DC for far too long and being at home is exactly what I need. In fact, in my brief professional life I don't believe I've ever taken off for this long.

I've had my vacations where I (try to) ignore the news and the happenings in aviation and social media, but those attempts at quitting cold turkey tend not to relax me at all. Yes, I know that makes me an addict. So, that being said, I won't be far if you'd like to drop me a line.

I'm looking forward to spending the first two weeks of 2011 eating normally, sleeping normally, catching up on reading, movies and all that stuff. I'll also be starting work on a new personal project that I'll be sharing more information about as things unfold.

2011 will be the year of the CSeries, the A350 and the MRJ as they see their first units moving into final assembly, setting the stage for their 2012 first flights. 2011 will also be the year of the 787, and perhaps its most challenging yet.

Again, just let me say thank you for another amazing year. This page turns four in March and it continues to challenge and surprise me in ways I never could have imagined.

With deepest gratitude,

Onward,

Jon Ostrower

For Sukhoi, 2011 is the stage for Superjet's first test

By
Jon Ostrower
 on January 3, 2011 12:20 PM | | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)
phpibgjs6.jpeg
Early this year, the first Sukhoi Superjet will be delivered to its first customers, Aermenian carrier Armavia and Russian flag carrier Aeroflot. While the world hasn't seen what the Armavia colors look like on the SSJ100, a sneak peek of the first Aeroflot-painted Superjet was revealed last week on the snowy flight line in Komsomolsk-on-Amur where the aircraft is assembled.

The aircraft, registered RA-89001, is a SSJ100-95LR with a range of 2,110nm and can accomodate up to 98 seats and cover routes from Moscow as far away as Lisbon, Keflavik and Dubai. Granted, those are larger markets where a 100-seater would be too small, but it provides a sense of the cities within the SSJ's range.

As it begins revenue service, Superjet will be facing its first commercial test to validate the reliability of the new jet. Superjet International has said directly that demonstrating the aircraft's reliability and serviceability is the biggest challenge facing the new jet. The VASO An-148 suffered a dismal start to its service in 2010, with Russian state airline GTK Rossiya saying over one 92-day period, one of its aircraft was unfit to fly for 89 days.

The program is still in search of a major Western operator, after Italian flag carrier Alitalia selected the Embraer E-190 over the Superjet, despite outward political pronouncements by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin about the future of the jet in Italy. 

The 100-seat market will get significantly more crowded in 2011 with the commencement of revenue service of the newly delivered CRJ1000. From a development standpoint, 2011 will bring the commencement of final assembly of Japan's 90-seat Mitsubishi Regional Jet. Additionally, there are perhaps some hints the E-195X may be back on the table for Embraer after being shelved last year year. This year will also begin to bring some clarity from India on its future homegrown regional jet, a prototype of which is expected to fly in 2015 or 2016.

The second decade of the 21st century is about all these new market entrants and 100-seat jets is the first battleground.
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