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May 2011 Archives

Beezhold, Terry.jpgBuried in the second-to-last paragraph in an announcement of vice presidential promotions for its chief engineers was a word about Terry Beezhold, who serves as the 787 airplane level integration team (ALIT) leader. Beezhold, effective today, becomes Boeing's vice president for process, tools and affordability. One particular line in his new job description stands out:
In his new role, Beezhold will work with Engineering, Information Technology, Manufacturing, Airplane Programs and CAS to make sure all Boeing Commercial Airplanes computing processes and tools support the entry into service for the 747 Freighter and Intercontinental and 787 airplanes, support the sustaining airplane programs and enable the planned rate increases for the 737, 767, and 777 programs. Additionally, Beezhold will work on affordability associated with the non-recurring process for future airplane product development. Doing so, he will work closely with Larry Schneider, vice president of Product Development; Mike Bair, vice president of Advanced 737 Product Development, and Lars Anderson, vice president of Advanced 777 Product Development.
The position is significant as it lays the groundwork establishing the business case for the coming spate of potential development programs, including the stretched 787-10X, 777 upgrade and clean sheet 737 replacement.

Match that description against this 1997 Flight International article about future product development and a new role for one of Boeing's Master Engineers, Walt Gillette:
One of the initiatives is aimed at creating "faster, cheaper", processes which would enable Boeing and its suppliers to develop an all-new aircraft at half the cost of current projects. Although Boeing declines to offer any details, Flight International understands that the project's broad target is a 50% reduction in the 70-month timescale and $7 billion cost of the 777 programme.

Boeing's name for the project is the Airplane Creation Process Strategy, and it is led by its director, Walt Gillette, who was appointed to the position in January. "We met suppliers a while ago to begin discussing the issue, although we're not ready to talk about it much externally at the moment," says Boeing. The Airplane Creation Process Strategy group reports to Harry Arnold, executive vice-president of Boeing Commercial Airplane Group's define- and aircraft-development section.
Gillette's work on the ACPS in the late 1990s spawned the 787 program as we know it today, laying the foundation for the aircraft's business case, which included - broadly - the composite structure, systems architecture and global supply chain. 

The overarching context for this move comes out of Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh's comments from Investor Day on the plans for developing a supply chain and production system for a 737 replacement:
What we're really scratching our head on right now, though, is the other thing that you always have to look at when you do an airplane, and that is the production system. How can we take an airplane that's probably composite, and how do we ramp it up from zero airplanes a month, up to 40, 50 or 60, and how do you do that in a short period of time? And we've got a team that's off working that and working that very hard. 
Right now, the effort has been, for the most part, internal. But what we have to do different? And if this is a composite airplane, how do you do it without autoclaves? How do you reduce the amount of tooling? How can you figure out how you don't have to drill a lot of holes that you have to fill? I mean, there are lot of things that have to be considered and we have set up a team under Ray Conner and we're bringing in people that have worked high-rate production in other industries to help us figure out what this manufacturing system would look like. I think if you don't design the production system in parallel with the airplane, we'll find - we'll have difficulty.
No clear indication of the company's direction, but certainly another step forward.

Photo Credit Boeing
Japan Airlines Boeing 787 Dreamliner JA822A/N1003W ZA177

Boston's Logan International Airport and the Asia has a long and winding history of missed connections, though the pair is finally to be united.

Elected officials in Massachusetts have sought direct service between Boston and Asian destinations for more than a half decade. The 7,800 to 10,000ft runways at Logan restricted how many passengers and revenue cargo aircraft could carry to connect the largest city in New England to destinations in Asia.  

The 787 was designed to defy those restrictions, allowing long range, low demand (long and thin) city pairs to be connected profitably. A December 2007 trade mission to China by Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick was aimed - in part - at securing the air link between Boston and China with Hainan Airlines. 

Boston was supposed to get its first 787 service in 2009 with flights to Beijing or Shanghai on Hainan Airlines, but the delays in the program, coupled with Chinese carriers abandoning their early 787s, the service remained aspirational. Boeing confirmed yesterday that China Southern would take delivery of its first 787 late this year.

For the sake of full disclosure, connecting Asia to Logan has always been a niche interest of mine, not the least of which is the fact that I grew up in the Boston area and before FlightBlogger was with Flightglobal, I served on Governor Patrick's staff. Sitting on my desk at home is a 7E7 model painted in Hainan Airlines colors that I brought home from my first trip to China last year and serves as a reminder of the brief overlaps between my past and current careers.

While it's not the long-sought China link, Boston will finally get its direct service to Asia next year with direct flights from Logan to Tokyo's Narita Airport on Japan Airlines. 

Perhaps fitting, the route - which opens on April 22, 2012 - will be operated as Japan Airlines Flight 7 and Flight 8 and Airlineroute.com reports that the carrier will begin Singapore flights in late 2011, as well, however JAL has not confirmed this directly.

The late April date for the start of the Boston flight as the carrier's first route is curious though, with JAL set to receive its first few aircraft this year. Why the four month gap before revenue service? A period of time between US Federal Aviation Administration and Japan Civil Aviation Bureau (JCAB) certification is expected for the Rolls-Royce powered 787 that are going to All Nippon Airways in August or September. ETOPS trials for the General Electric GEnx-1B-powered 787s (selected by JAL) are expected to follow sometime after Rolls trials, which begin in June.

Perhaps conflictingly, the JCAB says it plans its own 12 to 18 month extended operations (ETOPS) certification - as it did with the 777 - before giving clearance for long range missions with the 787. A 330 minute ETOPS clearance is more than enough margin on the near-polar route between Boston and Tokyo, but the JCAB hasn't said if it will allow anything beyond operations beyond a 60 minute diversion to an alternate airport. A 120 minute ETOPS margin would allow the 787 to fly the route, but it's not entirely clear that it will be available.

Let's hope that that Boston's Asia link doesn't have to wait any longer than it already has.
Boeing 787-8 ZY998

Boeing's 787 fatigue test airframe has passed the critical 10,000 cycle milestone, solidifying a regulatory requirement to maintain ahead of the fleet leader in simulated takeoffs and landings, say program sources. 

The airframe, dubbed ZY998, first began its fatigue trials in September 2010, parked behind the Everett factory in a custom test fixture designed to simulate the normal stresses on an aircraft during flight. 

Each cycle, representing one takeoff and one landing, includes flexing of the various structures, as well as repeated pressurizations expanding and contracting the aircraft's composite primary structure fuselage.

The airframer expects to certify the 787 for 44,000 cycles in its lifetime, but is required to double that margin during the testing, which must remain 10,000 cycles ahead of the flying fleet leader. Boeing will push ZY998 to as many as 165,000 over the next three years to determine the long-term structural life of the 787.
Boeing 787 Dreamliner N787EX ZA002

Boeing firmed its schedule for the 787's service ready, operation and validation (SROV) testing schedule today, readying ZA002 to fly to Tokyo's Haneda Airport and visit airports in southwestern Japan from July 4 to 8. The company has also ruled out a July first delivery to All Nippon Airways, placing the first handover in August or September.

Initial reporting by this page in January put the first delivery in September, though per the latest Z23 schedule, Airplane Eight (ZA101), the first for ANA was slated to be handed over to the airline in late July

The slimmer margin keeps delivery within the third quarter and perhaps may be attributable to the start ETOPS and functionality & reliability shifting from late-March to early-June. Boeing 787 vice president and general manager Scott Fancher confirmed the June start of the 300h F&R at Tuesday's Investor Day Conference. Had ETOPS begun in late-March it would have wrapped up just over three months later in July per flight test schedule.

Fancher discussed in detail the SROV preparations in detail and the last phases of the certification campaign:
Here we're going to take one of the flight test airplanes. In fact, it's Airplane number two...that airplane will go over to Japan and we'll actually induct that airplane into ANA's operating system. 

We will fly the airplane with ANA pilots shoulder-to-shoulder, we'll maintain the airplane with ANA maintainers shoulder-to-shoulder. It will be inducted into their maintenance systems. We'll demonstrate the ability to dispatch the airplane. We'll demonstrate the ability to maintain the airplane and we'll simulate really off-nominal maintenance conditions, whether it's a major structural failure, a major engine failure, to make sure that the partner team, led by Boeing and ANA, are ready to accept and operate the airplane within their systems.

And we get to a milestone that we call our Program Statement of Compliance or PSOC. This is where The Boeing Company states that the airplane is compliant with the Federal Aviation regulations and that we've submitted the last of the documentation necessary for certification. The FAA then reviews - does a final review of that documentation, issues the type certification and we move to delivering the first airplane to ANA in the coming quarter.
During its visit to Japan, ZA002 will visit Haneda, Osaka Kansai & Itami, Okayama and Hiroshima, providing a likely preview of the early destinations that will be flown by the early 787s configured with medium-haul seating. In July 2007, Aviation Week reported that ANA would have to fly the 787 on domestic and regional routes for 12 to 18 months for the Japan Civil Aviation Bureau (JCAB) to conduct its own ETOPS certification. 

JP-ZA002-map.gif
Photo Credit GCmap.com
Delta Air Lines Boeing 737-700 N304DQ

I went back and listened to the Boeing Investor Day recordings last night and an item that I missed on the first path jumped out at me at second glance. Today's mixed Delta Air Lines A320/737NG narrowbody fleet is a creation of the Delta/Northwest merger, but Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Albaugh hints that the carrier may be a point of traction for the A320neo.
A lot of people ask the question, well, is the re-engined A320 getting traction with your customers? And if you look at the airplane or the airline market out there, most people either have Boeing products or Airbus products. The people that have mixed fleets are the ones who have come together through acquisitions and mergers or the Chinese, where they bought both types of airplanes. And there's a very high cost of switching. And there's also a cost for complexity and I really don't think that we're going to see too many customers really think about switching to a different type of airplane any time soon.
A May 9 note from Leeham Co, suggests that not only is this is prime Airbus territory, but that Boeing may not even get into competition:
Airbus' John Leahy has publicly stated that he believes if Boeing "loses" a solid 737 customer, specifically naming Delta Air Lines, Boeing would be "forced" to re-engine. Buckingham reports in the May 3 BCC research note that Boeing may no-bid Delta, largely due to the inability to offer production slots (Boeing's 737 line is sold out to 2016/17); there is, therefore, nothing for Boeing to "lose."
Yet, Albaugh's comment underscores a possible emerging strategic advantage with the A320neo even if Boeing chooses not to compete for the Delta order. Airbus may be able to gain traction in mixed fleets, but can Boeing? The A320neo's 95% part commonality does not unlock the current Airbus customer base allowing it to look elsewhere, though Airbus has positioned itself for modest marketshare growth to re-fleet one of the world's largest carriers and the Chinese market.

The Next Generation 737 has been an extraordinary sales success for Boeing, though the company's incremental update to the narrowbody created an aircraft that has a 75% non-commonality with the 737 Classics. This level of change opened the door for British Airways, easyJet and US Airways to look to Airbus for its narrowbody fleets. 

In a war of attrition, victories may be measured in inches.
Embraer Lineage 1000 PT-SDD

Submitted without comment.

March 27, 2009:
Embraer to decide on larger aircraft within 18 to 24 months
Embraer expects to decide whether to move forward with development of a larger commercial aircraft within the next 18 to 24 months.

During an earnings conference call today, Embraer president and CEO Frederico Fleury Curado said: "We keep looking into the whole section of commercial aircraft [from] small to 150 seats or so."
July 14, 2009:
Embraer in engine talks as it studies clean-sheet airliner
Embraer is talking to General Electric, Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney about new-generation engines to power a potential clean-sheet airliner design under study which is larger than the E-Jet family, a top Embraer official reveals.
...
However, while P&W "started this race with the geared turbofan, and GE and Rolls are very seriously looking at new technology for a new generation engine", Embraer does not see "enough maturity to make a decision at this point", says Kern, adding: "Maybe in 18 to 24 months we'll have a better, more clearer view about that."
January 26, 2010:
Proposed stretch dubbed E-195X by Embraer
A proposed stretch of Embraer's largest-capacity commercial jet has been dubbed the E-195X by the manufacturer, which expects to decide whether to launch the variant - or potentially another type - by mid-2011.
...
Embraer's "best estimate" is that it will have a decision on whether to launch a new derivative or programme in "12 to 18 months", by the mid-2011 timeframe.
March 15, 2010:
Embraer outlines timeframe for new product decision
Embraer expects to make a decision on product enhancements or a new commercial aircraft in 12-18 months.

Company EVP of the airline market Mauro Kern outlined that timeframe during the ISTAT annual conference today in Orlando, Florida, stating the time period to make a decision "could be shorter than that".
May 25, 2011:
Embraer to decide on new jet in 12-18 months-report
(Reuters) - Embraer (EMBR3.SA)(ERJ.N), the world's biggest regional aircraft maker, will take more than one year to decide whether to build a new family of jets, Chief Executive Officer Frederico Curado told newspaper Valor Economico on Wednesday.

"We have to make a decision in the short to medium term, and that would be something between 12 and 18 months," Curado told Valor. The Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil-based company is a global leader in 70-to-120-seat aircraft.
787-10X_Family .jpg
In his Boeing Investor Conference presentation today, 787 vice president and general manager, Scott Fancher, included something extra in his accompanying slides: A new rendering of Boeing's 787-10X.

The last rendering of the aircraft was first unveiled in 2007 when the notional 787-10 was first presented at the Paris Air Show. At that point, the aircraft would have been optimized to supplant the 777-200ER with a comparable range and payload.

Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, says the new jet - a simple fuselage stretch of the 787-9 - will include 43 more seats than its 270-seat smaller predecessor. 

"I believe this will be an airplane we will probably do," says Albaugh.

The rendering didn't initially show up on the original presentation as it was broadcasting live, but materialized after the event in the accompanying materials. Interestingly, it's now the second time we've seen a Boeing concept aircraft in the "ghost" Dreamliner colors.

A few interesting notes about this rendering, which offers official confirmation that there will be a stretch of the 47 Section aft fuselage. Also, the design is definitely shorter than the 2007 concept and eliminates any stretch of the Spirit AeroSystems-built forward 41 Section. If you look closely, you can almost see a subtle fuselage join in front of Kawasaki-built Section 43, perhaps suggesting the addition of a new "Section 42" barrel between the center and forward fuselages.
FA 271414 by Leo Dejillas edited by Liz Matzelle_560.jpg
Boeing's yearly gathering of financial analysts in Seattle gets underway today at 11 AM ET/8 AM PT this page will be bringing you liveblogged coverage of the commercial presentations from CEO Jim McNerney, CFO James Bell, Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh, 787 vice president and general manager Scott Fancher.

In many ways, Boeing uses its investor day to set the stage for its air show announcements during the summer, paving the way for its next moves. If the Paris Air Show is the Superbowl, this is the aerospace NFL draft. Today should bring official confirmation of the early flights of the Rolls-Royce 'Package B'  engine on ZA004, and possibly schedule clarity on 787 ETOPS and F&R testing. 

Additionally, we will likely get some additional color on 747-8F delivery schedules, with nagging questions about readiness for the mid-year delivery, including the de-ice system and Honeywell flight management system readiness.

The presentations will all be webcast, and questions from analysts are expected to focus on the future of new airplane programs (737RS/797, 787-9, 787-10, 777NG), 787 delivery schedule, profitability, order book stability and production readiness. Follow updates below the fold and on twitter for the latest on #BoeingID.

Updates available after the jump.

Photo Credit Boeing
This week's Movie Monday is another trip into the vault for classic aircraft development footage. This declassified 1955 report on the original Lockheed C-130 Hercules runs 13min - a bit shorter than usual MMs - but the level of detail provided in the report is really extensive. The C-130 airframe has been upgraded and adapted to so many different missions over the years that the 1955 C-130 bears little to no 'under the skin' resemblance to the C-130J of today. One particularly notable modification was the addition of jet assisted landing, designed to make the aircraft capable of landing and taking off again inside the confines of soccer stadium.

Boeing 787 Dreamliner N787BX ZA003

Apologies for the lack of content here the past two weeks, I've been mostly 'heads down' working on features for our Paris air show issue. 

ZA004 will return to flying Friday with the first Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 'Package B' engine hung under its right wing, marking the beginning of tests on the updated powerplant meant to deliver specific fuel consumption (SFC) rates within 1% of initial specification.

The fourth 787 test aircraft had been down for maintenance since April 27 installing the engine and its extensive instrumentation. The left-hand engine is expected to be installed on ZA004 later this month, say program sources.

The Package B engine includes a revised six-stage low pressure turbine (LPT) design, high-aspect-ratio blades, relocation of the intermediate-pressure (IP) compressor bleed offtake ports and a fan outlet guide vanes with improved aerodynamics. 

Additionally, it is believed that the Package B engine also incorporates undisclosed hardware changes that were prompted following the August 2010 uncontained failure of a Package A model Trent 1000 at the Rolls-Royce test stand in Derby, UK.

UPDATE 7:44 PM ET: It appears the flight plan has been withdrawn from Flightaware.com, scrubbing Friday's Package B engine first flight. 

UPDATE 12:45 PM ET: Program sources say ZA004 should likely fly on Saturday. A bit of archival digging began to answer a few on-going questions about the Package B engine. From a December 2009 report I authored just before 787 first flight (EIS planned for late 2010), I wrote:
ZA001 through ZA004 will conduct their respective first flights using the current Package A standard engine, while ZA004 will have its engines swapped out with the Package B engine during the middle of next year for ETOPS testing. 

The Trent 1000 engines featured on the fifth and sixth 787s delivered to All Nippon Airways are expected to feature specific fuel consumption within 1% of targets set by Rolls-Royce.
Further, a Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 newsletter published on the company's website in March 2010 - three months later - calls the Package B engine the "EIS performance standard", suggesting that the Package A engines would never see commercial service.

RRT1000newsletter.jpg
UPDATE 8:39 PM ET: ZA004 has completed its first flight with the Package B engine, flying up and down the Pacific coast of Washington, Oregon and California. The aircraft was spotted on final approach to Boeing Field just moments before landing on its roughly four-plus hour flight.

ZA004-PackageB-Flight.jpg
Photo Credit Flightaware.com
Airbus A380 MSN004 F-WWDD

The World Trade Organization appellate body released today a final ruling on the 2004 Airbus launch aid complaint filed by the US on behalf of Boeing. Flightglobal's reporting on the ruling deputy editor Kerry Reals and mylsef was titled WTO appellate body partially upholds Airbus subsidy ruling, capturing the reaction of the US and European, along with both Boeing and Airbus. To read the complete statements from Boeing and Airbus, you could easily get a very different impression of the final result of the complaint. 
The Boeing take: The World Trade Organization's Appellate Body today confirmed that Airbus received $18 billion in illegal "launch aid" and other subsidies from European governments.
The Airbus take: The World Trade Organization (WTO) report released today constitutes the final blow to the Boeing-sponsored myth that government support to Airbus somehow caused harm to Boeing.
As often happens, the appellate ruling is far more ambiguous and far from clear cut. Though what is clear is that neither Boeing nor Airbus interpretations of the ruling leave room for nuance, beyond the rhetorical battle. The war of words being what it is, I wanted to step past press releases from airframers and the statements of government officials and provide access to both the summary of the ruling (below) directly from the WTO, a way to read the complete appellate ruling (PDF) and the original October 2004 complaint and complete June 2010 report that inspired the appeal.
Summary of key findings

The Appellate Body today upheld the Panel's finding that certain subsidies provided by the European Union and certain Member state governments to Airbus are incompatible with Article 5(c) of the SCM Agreement because they have caused serious prejudice to the interests of the United States. The principal subsidies covered by the ruling include financing arrangements (known as "Launch Aid" or "Member state financing") provided by France, Germany, Spain, and the UK for the development of the A300, A310, A320, A330/A340, A330-200, A340-500/600, and A380 LCA projects. The ruling also covers certain equity infusions provided by the French and German governments to companies that formed part of the Airbus consortium. Additionally, it covers certain infrastructure measures provided to Airbus, namely, the lease of land at the Mühlenberger Loch industrial site in Hamburg, the right to exclusive use of an extended runway at Bremen airport, regional grants by the German authorities in Nordenham, and Spanish government grants and regional grants by Andalucia and Castilla-La Mancha in Sevilla, La Rinconada, Toledo, Puerto Santa Maria, and Puerto Real. The Appellate Body found that the effect of the subsidies was to displace exports of Boeing single-aisle and twin-aisle LCA from the European Union, Chinese, and Korean markets and Boeing single-aisle LCA from the Australian market. Moreover, the Appellate Body confirmed the Panel's determination that the subsidies caused Boeing to lose sales of LCA in the campaigns involving the A320 (Air Asia, Air Berlin, Czech Airlines, and easyJet), A340 (Iberia, South African Airways, and Thai Airways International), and A380 (Emirates, Qantas, and Singapore Airlines) aircraft.

However, for different reasons, the Appellate Body excluded certain measures from the scope of the finding of serious prejudice. In particular, the finding under Article 5(c) of the SCM Agreement no longer includes the 1998 transfer of a 45.76% interest in Dassault Aviation to Aérospatiale; the special purpose facilities at the Mühlenberger Loch industrial site in Hamburg, Aéroconstellation industrial site and associated facilities (taxiways, parking, etc.) in Toulouse, or the various research and technology development (R&TD) measures that had been challenged by the United States (Spanish PROFIT Programme, grants under Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth EC Framework Programmes; 1986-1993 R&TD grants by French government; Luftfahrtforschungsprogramm I, II, and III German grants; grants by Bavarian, Bremen, and Hamburg authorities; civil aircraft research and development and aeronautics research programmes by the UK government). The Appellate Body also reversed the Panel's findings of displacement in Brazil, Mexico, Singapore, and Chinese Taipei, and of threat of displacement in India.

Moreover, the Appellate Body disagreed with the Panel's views on when subsidies can be considered as being de facto contingent upon anticipated export performance. Consequently, the Appellate Body reversed the Panel's findings that the financing provided by Germany, Spain and the UK to develop the A380 was contingent upon anticipated exportation and thus a prohibited export subsidy under Article 3.1(a) and footnote 4 of the SCM Agreement. The Appellate Body also rejected the United States' cross-appeal of the Panel finding that it had not been established that certain other member State financing contracts constituted prohibited export subsidies. As a consequence, the Appellate Body reversed the Panel's recommendation that the European Union withdraw prohibited subsidies within 90 days. The Appellate Body also found that the United States' claims regarding an alleged unwritten launch aid/member State financing programme were outside its jurisdiction. In addition, the Appellate Body reversed the Panel's findings regarding the rate of return that a market lender would have demanded for launch aid/member State financing loans because they were not based on an objective assessment; but found that a benefit was conferred even on the basis of the European Union's calculations. Finally, with respect to the actionable subsidies that have been found to cause adverse effects to the interests of the United States, the Panel's recommendation that the European Union "take appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects or ... withdraw the subsidy" stands.

The Panel in this case was established in July 2005. The Panel circulated its Report to WTO Members on 30 June 2010; and the European Union filed a Notice of Appeal on 21 July 2010.

A separate dispute brought by the European Union against the United States for subsidies allegedly provided to Boeing is currently before the Appellate Body. The panel report in that dispute was circulated to WTO Members on 31 March 2011. Both the European Union and the United States have appealed aspects of that panel report.
American Airlines 757-200 N7667A

A forecast of summer air travel released Monday by the Air Transport Association (ATA) reveals some fascinating figures about US carriers an aircraft market that been steadily shrinking over the past decade - driven down by consolidation, recession, the threat of terrorism and other exogenous shocks. 

ATA expects 2.24 million passengers will fly daily aboard US airlines this summer, up 34,000 passengers per day from 2010, transporting 206.2 million fliers from June through August. That figure is about 1.5% higher than last year 203.1 million passengers flew on US carriers during the same period a year prior.

While the figures show modest year over year growth, there are importantly underlying facts that tell us a lot about the state of the fleet in the US. According to Boeing and ATA, on an absolute basis the North American fleet has shrunk by nearly 1,000 aircraft since the end of 2001, a 12% drop from 8,056 aircraft to 7,096 at the close of 2010. 

During that same period the fuel consumption dropped 15% from 20.5 billion gallons in 2001 to fuel to around 17.5 billion gallons at the start of this year, a drop of 3 percentage points higher than the decline of the US fleet over the same period, indicating the increasing fuel efficiency of the the fleet.

Though staggeringly the fuel bill for US carriers has climbed from $15 billion to $50 billion annually and now accounts for $0.33 on every dollar spent by airlines today. By comparison in 2010, the International Air Transport Association says $0.26 on every dollar spent worldwide was for fuel. Engine and airframe maintenance accounted for just $0.13 of every dollar spent.

Amazingly even with this massive increase in fuel the average domestic fare in the last ten years has only risen $1.81 since 2000 to $316.27 (adjusted for inflation), illustrating the dearth of pricing power airlines have when it comes to managing their ticketing revenue stream. This fact should illustrate why ancillary revenue has become such a core component to achieving the thinnest of margins. 
 
Looking two decades into the future, Boeing's own current market outlook spread across the past half-decade tell the story as well. The 2006 20-year outlook for North America forecast 9,450 new aircraft being delivered with an annual traffic growth rate of 3.6%. Four years later, Boeing's own numbers are 24% lower, anticipating 7,200 deliveries from 2010 to 2029 and an annual growth rate of 2.4%. 

Yet, even with this steady decade-long reduction in size, North America remains the single largest market for narrowbody aircraft, with Boeing estimating that 78% of total deliveries to the US and Canada over the next twenty years will be to replace aircraft in service today.

When it comes to developing new and updating existing aircraft, these figures paint an interesting picture of what airlines will need from airframers in the coming decade. Fuel, once a relatively small fractional share of operating cost, has become the largest and most flexible cost lever to pull; whether it's with winglets, precision navigation, weight and drag reduction, engine improvements or new aircraft. The question becomes how to pull that lever and how much do you spend as an aircraft maker pulling it to the benefit of airlines.
Aviation restoration projects may be commonplace in this industry, but they are never unimpressive when those passionate enough to attempt the undertaking seek to bring a flying machine to museum quality. It's even more impressive when an aircraft is restored to flying condition. It's a whole other thing when a Wichita, Kansas-built Boeing B-29 Superfortress is ditched 250 miles north of Thule Air Force Base in Greenland in February 1947 and a team heads into the wilderness to find, restore and fly it out nearly fifty years later. I won't reveal the result, but I imagine I won't be alone in remarking the haste, timing and execution of the project is terribly shortsighted and did not nearly justify the high cost of the project. NOVA's B-29 Frozen in Time runs just under an hour covering six parts.


Parts two through six are below the fold.
787-9_Rendering_560.jpg
With two and a half years to go before ZB021, the first production 787-9, is handed over to  Air New Zealand at the end of 2013, Boeing is advancing forward on detailed design of the larger 250 to 290-seat Dreamliner, while it appears to be quietly laying the foundation for the third variant, the yet unlaunched 787-10. 

Up Weight Paves The Way
First, Boeing has again increased the maximum take-off weight of the 787-9, though it's not entirely clear that the increase to 553,000lbs is driven entirely by regaining payload range capability due to an increase in airframe empty weight. Rather, one industry official indicates that the MTOW figure is be identical for the conceptual stretched 787-10. The increase actually appears to build a design bridge to the 787-10.

The same MTOW figures are indicative of structural similarity of the "simple stretch" -10, which hopes to fly 300 passengers a range of 6,900 to 7,000nm. If nothing else, the precedent for identical MTOW figures in Boeing stretches is found in the 777-200ER and 777-300, each with the basic takeoff roll weight capability of 582,000lbs.

While the 787-9 is starting to show signs of readiness for the -10, it still appears the larger jet is still "a long ways away" with hints of no earlier than 2015 and no later than 2017 starting to come in focus. 

A Question Of Fuel
Quietly tucked into the changing MTOW of the 787-9 is a further 44gal reduction in the aircraft's fuel capacity. While not a very significant reduction when compared to the overall 33,384gal capacity, the amount now sits 144gal below the 787-8. This is a small figure, but 787-9 is set to deliver a 500nm range improvement over the -8 with more structure and payload flying on a wing with an identical wing planform as the -8. In a February 2010 interview, vice president of airplane programs, Pat Shanahan offered these thoughts on the optimized design flying farther on less fuel with more payload and structure:
That's beauty of engineering, we're not going to extend the length, add the same planform and decrease the range. So, the team, through understanding the performance of the -8, optimizing the configuration, they found a way to get the range and the extra payload.
The Cart Before The Horse
All this talk of the 787-9 and -10 is - first - entirely dependent on the 787-8 and its final certified configuration establishing a transparent baseline to work from. That final configuration, said Spirit AeroSystems CEO Jeff Turner in his company's earnings call last week, will make the process of designing for the -9 considerably easier: 
I would say specific to the dash-9, as the dash-8 matures and nears certification, the dash-9 is a derivative off of that dash-8. So the more solid the dash-8 configuration is and becomes, the more straightforward the dash-9 derivative is. And that one is progressing very well.
Side-of-Body and Concept D
Before it was dismantled and relocated in pieces to the Boeing Boneyard in Everett, ZY997, the 787 static test airframe underwent a series of static tests with an updated side-of-body reinforcement modification designed for the larger -9 believed to be dubbed "Concept D". It is believed that Boeing is focusing particular attention on the side-of-body join, further refining this terribly troublesome area for both weight and further growth.

787-10-2007_560.jpg
Fuselage Length & Program Cost
The phrase "simple stretch" tends to be a terrible misnomer, but is intended to convey the idea that an airframe's modifications are generally limited to the fuselage and leverage capabilities already built into the smaller model, rather than optimize the airframe for equal payload and range performance. The 787-9 is made up of two 10ft stretches of Sections 43 and 46, placing all the structural growth into the center fuselage which is integrated in Charleston, already equipped with tooling for second model.

Industry officials say that design of the -10 is slightly smaller today than it was in 2007, but may still require a stretch of not just the 43 and 46 sections, but the 47 as well. The 2007 design stretched Sections 41, 43, 46 and 47. As the program seeks a low-cost investment to take on the Airbus A330-300, capital costs for tooling will undoubtedly be an important factor in keeping the investment low, stretching as few sections as possible is central to this say company sources. 

One potentially less obvious challenge is stretching the center fuselage so it still fits into the Dreamlifter. A 2008 diagram of the then-Global Aeronautica facility illustrated three types of centre fuselages on the pulse assembly line. Placing the full stretch in the center fuselage (preventing its air transport), could potentially make Charleston the base for the 787-10, saving tooling costs at Spirit and the nearby aft-fuselage fabrication facility.

Open Door For New Doors?
Saab North America, seeking to establish a presence in the US, identified the 787's doors as a possible opportunity to expand its supplier relationship with Boeing. Saab already supplies the cargo doors on the 787, while Toulouse-based Latecoere supplies the Czech-built passenger doors. Latecoere recently signed a long-term supplier agreement with Boeing, but the doors have been a source of trouble these last few years, requiring significant rework after delivery. Latecoere doesn't specify a variant in their announcement, but nor does Saab indicate on which model it hopes to expand its presence.

Renderings Credit Boeing
Boeing 787 Dreamliner N787BA ZA001

The US Federal Aviation Administration granted extended operations (ETOPS) certification to the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 (Photos) allowing the engine to be operated 330 minutes from a diversion landing field for a Boeing 787. Meanwhile, ZA004, is parked at Boeing Field and being retrofitted with the latest Trent 1000 'Package B' improvements that will bring specific fuel consumption to within 1% of the originally planned specification.

For Rolls-Royce, the Engine ETOPS certification differs from ETOPS airframe-engine certification (AEC) as the powerplant is given regulatory approval separately from the aircraft and all of its systems for long-range operations. Formal 787 AEC ETOPS testing, which includes system functionality & reliability testing, has not yet begun, though build-up tests were run in April on ZA003. The engine completed its 3,000 cycles ETOPS validation through ground testing back in August 2009.

Also, Boeing confirmed late last week that the test fleet had been fully upgraded to operating the latest electrical system software that was developed following the fire aboard ZA002 in November. The test fleet had been flying with an interim patched version, and ZA006, the last to be fitted with the software dubbed v10.4C, completed the installation in late April.
Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-700 N951WN

A top vice president at Boeing's biggest narrowbody customer, Southwest Airlines, says the end of the decade is "too long to wait" for an all-new airplane to replace its 737 Classics, but giving the US airframer an idea of what it wants will have to wait as the carrier turns its attention to merging with Atlanta-based AirTran Airways.

"We've got fleet of 200 airplanes out there at some point we're going to have to do something with and we can't wait until 2020," says Southwest Airlines vice president operations coordination center, Jeff Martin in regard to the carrier's aging block of 737-300s and -500s.

Martin spoke to ATI on the sidelines of the Air Transport World's Eco-Aviation conference in Washington, DC.

Boeing has said it plans to provide additional clarity at June's Paris air show on whether it plans to proceed with development of a mid-decade re-engining of the 737 or proceed with an all-new aircraft with an entry into service pegged for 2019 or 2020, though direct input from Southwest, suggests Martin, may not yet available until next 2012 at the earliest.

With its recently completed acquisition of AirTran, Southwest is turning its attention to integrating the two carriers, a departure from its historical methodical organic growth, which includes - for the first time - seeing if it can operate multiple types in its history with the introduction of the Boeing 717 along side its 737s. 

Martin says the AirTran acquisition has "changed our whole philosophy" now that Southwest has jumped to a multiple fleets, which "perks up everybody's ears" eliminating the sole barrier to entry for manufacturers other than Boeing to sell aircraft to the carrier.

"We're going to manage multiple fleets, but what we're really going to look at is who can bring us 25% efficiency," he says, adding that a re-engined 737 Next Generation aircraft won't deliver that benefit over Southwest's 737 Classics, despite a willingness to look at that option.

"We've squeezed the turnip, there's nothing left in the NG. It now goes back to the airframe and the engine. We'll look at re-engining, but we're waiting for someone to tell us what [Boeing is] going to do," says Martin of the incremental improvement it has sought through technology updates to its 737s, including having installed winglets on 80% its 737 fleet.

"Once we get through AirTran we've got another year's work I think then we'll come up and start looking around and determine what we're going to do," he says of selecting a new narrowbody. "Right now, it's all hands on deck for the integration, but we know we've got a subfleet of airplanes that we need to address and that's the classics and there's 200 of them."

If Boeing does move forward with an all-new narrowbody to replace the venerable 737 at the end of the decade, it aims to offer 20% improvement in fuel efficiency and 10% better cash operating costs over today's 737-700 offering.

The challenge to the airframer already believes it can deliver 15% fuel burn improvement with a new engine and a modest investment, but the cost of advancing fuel efficiency an additional 5% places the development cost skyrocketing with an all-new jet.

Technology Opens The Door

Southwest's $175 million investment to move from round dial displays on the 737-700 flight deck displays to the primary flight display/navigation display (PFD/ND) arrangement for precision navigation has also allowed the low-cost carrier to expand its search beyond Boeing for an aircraft to replace the 122-seat 737-500 and 137-seat 737-300.

"From what I had told [CEO Gary Kelly] the automation changes that we're making on the flight deck and going PFD/ND opens up any fleet type we want. Not just Boeing, but we understand all cockpits look like this now," says Martin. "We had placed ourselves on an island flying round dials without automation, so this will provide us benefit when we go into the marketplace.

"We won't have to go to someone and say "can you re-program the software to make this look like a [737-200], oh can you disconnect the auto throttles and VNAV we don't use all those things." People would have laughed at us."

Though despite this "level playing field" for the Bombardier CSeries arriving in late 2013, Airbus A320neo first delivering in October 2015 and potentially even an offering from Embraer, the strong relationship with Boeing, adds Martin, is well intact.

Adding, the need to replace its aging fleet of 737 Classics combined with Boeing's timing for a new narrowbody may be incompatible for Southwest, but that has not disqualified its sole aircraft vendor for the past four decades from the competition.

"We'll give them a shot just like everybody else, main thing is as any partner you have to communicate with them exactly what you want. Not sure we have on our side have fully defined that for them."

Exactly what Southwest wants in a new Boeing narrowbody aircraft will also be guided by the 2012 introduction of the larger 737-800 into the airline's fleet, a boost of 40 seats over its 737-700. The first 737-800 equipped for extended operations (ETOPS) is set to be delivered to the carrier in March 2012.

"We haven't told [Boeing] what size we would want yet, we haven't defined that yet," says Martin. "So, in their defense it's pretty hard when the customer says well "we think we want this many seats, we think we want that many". Well I don't blame them, how do you design to that? So it goes back to that, we'll know more after we have the -800 in service for a while."
Boeing 747-8 Final Assembly Line

Boeing begins month-long 747 assembly line hold
Jon Ostrower/Washington, DC
This piece was originally authored late Thursday for Air Transport Intelligence
Boeing will hold the 747-8 line in place from 6 May until 7 June, to allow it to catch up on design changes as it introduces the new -8I passenger model into its production system, though the company's 2011 delivery target remains unchanged despite evaluating an effect on its delivery schedule.

"The process of starting up the regular production of the 747-8 Intercontinental has created some challenges best addressed at this early stage in the ramp-up," says Boeing.

Boeing is currently ramping up 747-8 output from 1.5 to 2 aircraft per month, with the goal of reaching that target in 2012, and will hold the line from advancing over the next month in favour of incorporating design changes from flight test and completing unfinished work inside the factory.

In recent weeks, program sources say the number of assembly tasks, or jobs, has continuously crept up, even as additional machinists have been moved to the factory floor to tackle the unfinished work.

Despite holding in place the line for a calendar month, Boeing still intends to deliver between 12 and 20 747-8s in 2011, the first freighter mid-year and the first passenger model by year end.

The company told the Seattle Times it is "evaluating the effect on the delivery schedule" for those aircraft to follow after first 747-8F delivery in 2011, but tells Flightglobal: "We're staying close to our customers to make sure they understand our manufacturing and delivery plans."

Atlas Air Boeing 747-8F N852GT/G-GSSF RC573

Atlas Air, the largest 747-8F customer with 12 on order, said in its 3 May earnings statement it planed to "receive and place into service three 747-8Fs from Boeing in the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2011" though the cargo operated added, "To date, we do not have a final delivery schedule agreement with Boeing." 

Boeing has rolled out 20 747-8s to date, including two -8I test aircraft (RC001 & RC021), and five -8F test aircraft (RC501, RC521, RC522, RC503 & RC523), all currently participating in flight test. The balance are production freighters now occupying spots on the company's Everett, Washington flight line.

Including the final fuselage and wing body join position, Boeing has another three 747-8s in the final assembly process, while accommodating additional aircraft in various states of assembly from wing and fuselage build up, to systems installation and wing stub join spread across the factory's 40-21 and 40-22 buildings.

"Completing this work in the factory also will ensure that airplanes travel to the flight line in the most complete state possible, and minimize work required on the flight line," adds Boeing, which plans to use its Global Service & Support facility in San Antonio to conduct refurbishment of its flight test aircraft.

Read the complete statement to program personnel from 747 vice president and general manager Elizabeth Lund after the jump.
During the month of April, RC501, the first of what is now five 747-8F test aircraft, spent the middle portion of the month at Edwards Air Force base in California performing take off and stability and control evaluations.

Around April 10, say program sources, the aircraft underwent its certification max brake energy test, which saw the freighter - loaded to its maximum takeoff weight of 975,000lbs - slam on its Goodrich-built carbon brakes just before V1 speed transferring all its generated energy into the ground-down disk brakes, heating them to more than 2,500 degrees Fahrenheit (1,400 C). Boeing says the aircraft was able to stop 700ft shorter than first anticipated.

Boeing published its own video (above) of the test on Wednesday.

Boeing 747-8F N5017Q RC521

Certification requirements prohibit emergency services from moving before five minutes after wheel stop to simulate a real-world incident that accounts for dispatch time at an airport. Carbon brakes have made these RTO tests significantly safer over the years as the previous generation of steel brakes would catch fire, posing a greater risk to the crews conducting the tests.

For the sake of comparison, I've posted the original 777-200 rejected takeoff test from 1994/95 certification campaign as well. A second interpretation of the same test presents a significantly different tone, naturally attributable to artistic liberty, but the juxtaposition is notable.


Last night around 10pm the internet - more specifically twitter - exploded with activity around a planned 10:30 speech by President Obama on an unknown topic. We now know that topic was the announcement of the death of Osama bin Laden following a US special forces mission in Abbottabad, Pakistan. When the first news broke, I was in the middle of watching this Stanford Business School lecture by United Airlines CEO Jeff Smisek, which I was preparing for today's Movie Monday.

Smisek, who is the newly minted CEO of the merged United and Continental, discusses a range of topics during the lecture. Through the lecture, he emphasises how vulnerable the industry is from external shocks, like that we saw on 9/11. Though while those shocks, whether from volcanoes, fuel or attempted underwear bombers, are just the nature of the industry, it is not the thing that defines your business.

What Smisek suggests without explicitly spelling it out is long-term sustainable organizational stability is found from within by transparently understanding the state of your business and creating a work environment where people develop trust. 

There's been a lot of discussion about the Boeing/IAM/National Labor Relations Board controversy about the Charleston 787 line, and Smisek unwittingly adds his own take on a higher contextual level. Smisek ultimately says that the stability between management and its workforce isn't about union representation, but the overall relationship between those who participate in building the enterprise:
"And even in a unionised workforce, you can build that relationship with a unionised workforce where the work thinks of themselves as employees of the enterprise first and union members second. If you have it flipped where it's union first and enterprise second, that's a path to ruin."
This week's Movie Monday runs just shy of 23 minutes. Enjoy!

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