Boeing's yearly gathering of financial analysts in Seattle gets underway today at 11 AM ET/8 AM PT this page will be bringing you liveblogged coverage of the commercial presentations from CEO Jim McNerney, CFO James Bell, Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh, 787 vice president and general manager Scott Fancher.
In many ways, Boeing uses its investor day to set the stage for its air show announcements during the summer, paving the way for its next moves. If the Paris Air Show is the Superbowl, this is the aerospace NFL draft. Today should bring official confirmation of the early flights of the Rolls-Royce 'Package B' engine on ZA004, and possibly schedule clarity on 787 ETOPS and F&R testing.
The presentations will all be webcast, and questions from analysts are expected to focus on the future of new airplane programs (737RS/797, 787-9, 787-10, 777NG), 787 delivery schedule, profitability, order book stability and production readiness. Follow updates below the fold and on twitter for the latest on #BoeingID.
Updates available after the jump.
Photo Credit Boeing
UPDATE 11:21 AM: Boeing CEO Jim McNerney, speaking generally, says the company is evaluating the market, timing and technology options on the 737 replacement. He also says both the 747-8 and 787 are in their "final phases of flight testing" with highes-risk tests completed and solutions implemented on that came out of flight test discoveries on both programs. More general comments on looking at 787-10 and 777NG as future program to follow the 787-9.
UPDATE 11:48 AM: McNerney says the company has two years of visibility on market/suppliers for its ramp ups. Allows time to adjust, but aims for ramp to be sustained 5-7 years. Also, McNerney acknowledged that Boeing "booted" the 787 supplier tracking process and "unfortunately we paid billions upon billions in the learning process."
Tech Note: The feed is highly unreliable the moment and hearing what is going on is choppy at best.
UPDATE 11:56 AM: McNerney largely rules out twin-aisle 757-sized 737 replacement. "We're getting a lot of encouragement on doing a larger narrowbody" but the replacement would be modestly bigger, "not a step function change in the airplane" and doesn't rule out addressing the market segment above -700 and -800 in the future. Overall, the new narrowbody would address "the heart of the market" and be slightly bigger than today's market. Will make a decision in the next nine months on a new jet, but re-engining is an option if Boeing can't settle on a new jet.
UPDATE 12:06 PM: Boeing CFO James Bell says that the company will disclose its 787 accounting quantity size at the time of first delivery.
Historical Note: Every single new Boeing program has has an accounting block of 400, including 747, 757, 767, 777 and 737NG. It is widely believed that 787's block could be as high as 1000.
UPDATE 12:28 PM: James Bell says Boeing will have about 40 787s built at the the of first delivery to ANA.
Today, Airplane 41 is in final assembly, making 35 production aircraft built. At a rate of two aircraft per month, Boeing should reach 40 787s built by around July/August, with two built in June and two more built in June. This meshes with Z23, but it's not clear how ETOPS/F&R testing will factor into completing flight test and achieving certification, as well as any required rework resulting from that phase.
UPDATE 12:39 PM: Boeing Commercia Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh is up next at about :45 past the hour. The connection and audio has been spotty at best this morning, and there are sizable chunks that have been missed. Let's hope traffic on the webcast thins a bit for the second half of commercial briefings.
UPDATE 1:01 PM: BCA CEO Albaugh says that 40% of 2011 orders will be for widebody aircraft, compare to 20% in 2010.
UPDATE 1:06 PM: Albaugh says the company will make a decision on moving to 42 737s per month this summer. Boeing CFO James Bell had previously said a decision on rate 42 would come in 2014 after 38 per month had been achieved. The company's market outlook is expected to grow the number of aircraft needed between 2011 and 2030.
UPDATE 1:15 PM: 787 Airplane 9 (ZA102) has been configured for ETOPS/F&R, which will start in June and run around 300h. 4% of certification requirements outstanding on Rolls-Royce airframe-engine combination, 96% complete.
UPDATE 1:28 PM: "There really isn't a competitor for the 777-300ER." Expectation is that A350-1000 won't be ready until the end of this decade or early next decade. Albaugh makes first formal mention 787-10X - dubbed as such - adding 43 seats to the 787-9. "Same wing, same engine, more people" adding "I believe this will be an airplane we will probably do."
Also, Albaugh makes first public reference to the 737 NG+, continuous improvements on today's 737. He adds that a re-engined 737 would be available in 2016 or 2017. Says a new airplane would deliver 20% fuel efficiency and cash operating cost improvement "well into double digits".
UPDATE 1:40 PM: Albaugh: Production rate increase to 777 beyond 8.3 "would be surprising" but also floats a 787 increase beyond 10 per month: "If we can get to 10, we can get to 11." Emphasizes it's not an announcement, but this is the first time since 2007 that a Boeing executive has discussed pushing 787 beyond 10 per month.
UPDATE 1:43 PM: In listing insourced items on the 787-9, Jim Albaugh says the aircraft's horiztonal stabilizer will be built at the Boeing Development Center. 70% of design work on the 787-9 will be done by Boeing.
UPDATE 1:54 PM: In a question from Joe Campbell at Barclays Capital, Albaugh dodges shape of 787 ramp, says to ask 787 VP/GM Scott Fancher. Albaugh says it's too soon to move from rate 2 to 2.5 with the amount of outstanding jobs, but expects that to advance this summer.
UPDATE 2:02 PM: Scott Fancher defines functionality and reliability (F&R) testing: 787 will operate under degraded systems on board to demonstrate robustness of the airplane in the presence of multiple failures. F&R will take around 300h, within those 300h, ETOPS testing will take place concurrently and is measured by test points, not hours and will begin in early June.
UPDATE 2:07 PM: After F&R the aircraft will move to SROV (service ready operational validation) which will see ZA002 travel to Japan and join in with ANA's operations. This will take place in the coming months. This will be followed by the Program Statement of Compliance (PSOC) which is a final review by the FAA before the final type certificate is granted ahead of delivery in the third quarter.
UPDATE 2:23 PM: Fancher says that the 787-9 side-of-body reinforcement has been tested and the changes from the 787-8 are mostly around producibility, manufacturing and assembly, and will eventually be fed back into the 787-8 design.
-- That's a wrap, folks! Thanks for tuning in. Now to turn this into full articles! --