August 2011 Archives
Trolling the Flight Archive today, I came across a truly eye-opening gem of a quote from a June 24, 1989 article on McDonnell Douglas' selection of a final assembly site for the MD-90. In the article, then program manager Walt Orlowski discussed the company's decision to not offer the "technically ready" General Electric GE36 unducted fan for the re-engined jetliner, which was available for a $1 million price premium. He described the company's thinking this way:
Douglas concedes that, with fuel prices unlikely to rise substantially in the near future, there is "inadequate motivation" for airlines to gamble on unducted-fan technology in return for improved fuel efficiency.Hard to tell what might have played out for McDonnell Douglas if its thinking had not been as short-term, especially in light of the fuel crisis that hit only decade earlier.
Intrepid blogger Dan Webb detailed a few big additions to Delta Air Lines' SEC filing today, noting the inclusion of aircraft purchasing commitments for the 100 Boeing 737-900ERs the airline firmed up last week.With a quarterly growth of $4.2 billion in commitments adding in the newly-purchased 100 737-900ERs at a list price of $85.8 million, back-of-the-napkin math shows a 51% discount on each airframe and engine combination. What the shared revenue split between CFM and Boeing is, we'll never know, but for reference a pair of new CFM56-7B engines run at a list price $12 million.
- Delta now has "total aircraft purchase commitments of $6.8 billion, including $55 million for the six months ending December 31, 2011, $210 million in 2012, $540 million in 2013, $760 million in 2014, $770 million in 2015, $780 million in 2016 and $3.7 billion after 2016."
- For comparison's sake, in its 10-Q Delta reported $2.6 billion in aircraft purchase commitments as of June 30. This number included $30 million in the second half of 2011, $70 million in 2012, and $2.5 billion from 2020 to 2022. Those figures "relate to 18 B-787-8 aircraft and 14 previously owned MD-90 aircraft."
Rendering Credit Boeing
Boeing's unveiling of the 737-7, -8 and -9 New Engine Family confirms many of the changes the airframer must make to the narrowbody to support the integration of the CFM International LEAP-1B engine, including significant changes to the aircraft's fuselage.
The company's released renderings illustrate the larger engine nacelle, which now includes noise-reducing chevrons that are hallmark's of the airframer's 787 and 747-8 programmes.
Unclear from the rendering is the exact size of the LEAP-1B engine, believed to be 66in, avoiding any major nose landing gear changes to maintain a 17in ground clearance beneath the nacelles.
Further, Boeing has made major changes to the 737's aft fuselage, with a 787-style tail cone and light emitting diode (LED) auxiliary power unit (APU) tail lights.
Perhaps even more significantly, the rendering illustrates the elimination of an aft body join once present on the 737-700. The join on the -700 comes just forward of the last two passenger windows ahead of door two. On Boeing's 737-7 rendering, no such join is present, potentially a significant weight-saving move.
The 737NE's wing's trailing edge has also been refined with reshaped flap fairings, likely for drag reduction on the strengthened wing.
Leading the engineering effort to update the 737 will be Michael Teal, who most recently served as chief engineer for the General Electric GEnx-2B-powered 747-8 program, which began its development as a re-engined and stretched 747-400.
In addition to the July commitment from American Airlines for 100 of the updated 737, Boeing says that four additional airlines have committed to 396 aircraft, the first of which is expected to enter service in 2017.
The company's released renderings illustrate the larger engine nacelle, which now includes noise-reducing chevrons that are hallmark's of the airframer's 787 and 747-8 programmes.
Unclear from the rendering is the exact size of the LEAP-1B engine, believed to be 66in, avoiding any major nose landing gear changes to maintain a 17in ground clearance beneath the nacelles.
Further, Boeing has made major changes to the 737's aft fuselage, with a 787-style tail cone and light emitting diode (LED) auxiliary power unit (APU) tail lights.
Perhaps even more significantly, the rendering illustrates the elimination of an aft body join once present on the 737-700. The join on the -700 comes just forward of the last two passenger windows ahead of door two. On Boeing's 737-7 rendering, no such join is present, potentially a significant weight-saving move.
The 737NE's wing's trailing edge has also been refined with reshaped flap fairings, likely for drag reduction on the strengthened wing.Leading the engineering effort to update the 737 will be Michael Teal, who most recently served as chief engineer for the General Electric GEnx-2B-powered 747-8 program, which began its development as a re-engined and stretched 747-400.
In addition to the July commitment from American Airlines for 100 of the updated 737, Boeing says that four additional airlines have committed to 396 aircraft, the first of which is expected to enter service in 2017.
The other four customers are yet unknown, though the balance are likely to be found among the airframer's most stalwart customers: Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Ryanair, GOL, Copa, Norwegian Air Shuttle, Lion Air, FlyDubai, TUI Travel and Malaysia Airlines
The airlines are likely found - at least partially - among the type's previous upgrade launch customers. Of that stalwart group, all but one - Ryanair - has committed to taking deliveries of 737s with Sky Interiors, and GOL, Copa, Norwegian, Lion Air, FlyDubai, United and TUI all served as launch customers for the update in April 2009.
Boeing has also unveiled the first rendering of the aircraft, which confirms the aircraft-maker's use of noise-reducing chevrons, as well as a re-lofted 787-style tail cone for drag reduction. The wing flap fairings have also been "sharpened" for drag reduction as well.
Rendering Credit Boeing
Rendering Credit Boeing
With US and European certifications in hand and 29 days to go before the first 787 officially delivered to All Nippon Airways on September 26, the 787's backlog stands at 821*, the largest-ever starting orderbook for a widebody aircraft program. The final regulatory hurdle for the 787's first delivery should be cleared Monday with receipt of the Japan Civil Aviation Bureau certification, giving ANA the clearance to begin flying passengers.
Boeing's herculean task over the next twenty-eight months is to ramp up 787 production from two per month today to ten per month by the end of 2013.
Using some new techniques, we can take Boeing's 787 backlog data and break it down into three interactive visualizations.
UPDATE: Non-interactive charts are available below the fold for those of you who are behind some corporate firewalls that don't allow access to Google Docs.
The first graph gives an historical look at the Boeing's 787 orders and cancellations since 2004. Since its launch, Boeing has accumulated 972 gross orders for the Dreamliner and 151 cancellations (including the six last week) or 15 months of production at peak rate.
The chart is intended to illustrate the growth in historical net and gross orders recorded at the time of their receipt, represented by the blue and red bars. The green bar represents the total cancellations recorded in a given year.
The orange bar illustrates the meltaway over time of the orders recorded in a given year. For example, while there were no cancellations in 2007, a year which saw 369 net orders, the customers who bought those 369 aircraft in that year have since cancelled 60 aircraft, reducing the total to 309. The orders recorded in 2008 saw the biggest drop, with a 37% reduction after the cancellations that were taken in 2009 through 2011.
The chart ultimately illustrates how solid the orderbook has remained for the units sold before 2008, which were booked in an extremely favorable pricing environment as Boeing was building its backlog.
The second chart gives the geographical breakdown of the backlog by country and where the OEM direct orders originate. The chart does not show airlines who are leasing 787s, but does show lessor's country of origin.
The third gives look into the engine battle between Rolls-Royce and General Electric spread across the 787-8 and 787-9. While the data show that Rolls has more individual customers for the Trent 1000, GE has a greater overall share of which airframes it will power with its GEnx-1B engine.
*The 821 orders reflects the latest cancellation of six 787s on August 25 from an undisclosed customer, the overall backlog data from Boeing does not yet reflect that change. All data was generated from a base of 827 orders.
Continue reading Heading for first delivery, Boeing's 787 backlog visualized (Update1).
Delta 737 Buy Goes Live
Delta Air Lines confirmed its order for 100 737-900ER aircraft this morning, the largest single order for the extended range stretch of the single-aisle jet. As the airframer thinks about the geographical balance of its narrowbody backlog growth, it's worth noting that of Boeing's net 737 orders for 2011 (274), wholly 74% (200) comes from just two customers.
747-8 & 787 First Deliveries
Boeing is closing in on delivery of the first 747-8 freighter no earlier than September 7, say company sources, though they caution its possible that this date may shift to slightly later in the month. The airframer has yet to release an official schedule for the delivery to Cargolux. RC502's first flight will be the key milestone for guiding the first delivery timeline. Cathay Pacific is expected to become the second recipient of freighters in September, followed by Atlas Air in October.
All Nippon Airways' first 787, ZA101, is closing in on first delivery sometime between September 22 to 30, with a ferry flight to Japan two days later. With its engine run on August 18, the aircraft is closing in on its first flight on September 1. FAA and EASA type certificate and FAA production certificates will be awarded August 26.
Also, ANA announced its first 787 domestic (Okayama, Hiroshima) and international routes (Beijing, Frankfurt).
787 Cancellation
Boeing's backlog of 787s shrunk by six this week, with a cancellation by an unidentified carrier. Possible suspects: Delta, Gulf Air or possibly a European carrier. The airframer now holds 821 order for the type.
General Electric received certification of its GEnx-1B engine with its Performance Improvement Package 1 that will shave 1.4% off the specific fuel consumption (SFC) of one of the two engine options for the 787. The improvement comes from an increased in the number of low pressure turbine (LPT) blades. This certification clears the way for the first of two planned PIPs to be flown on ZA005 or ZA006. Certification of the GEnx-1B 787 airframe combination is still expected in the fourth quarter followed by delivery to launch customer Japan Airlines.
Charleston's First 787
Just as Hurricane Irene is closing in on the eastern seaboard, the Charleston final assembly line has taken delivery of the last of the major structural sections for Airplane 46 (Air India), the first 787 to be built outside of Everett. The aft fuselage was walked across the campus from the former Vought Aircraft Industries building on August 22 where the structure is fabricated and undergoes systems installation. The section 47/48 joined the already delivered wings, center, forward and empennage structures, which first began arriving on 24 June.
Prior to delivery to final assembly, Airplane 46's center fuselage was used to shakedown new tooling on Line C, the third structural join and systems integration pulse line at the Charleston campus. Airplane 57, the next Charleston-built 787, will be joined in the newly inaugurated line.
Rendering Credit Boeing
Delta Air Lines is expected to announce Tuesday it has purchased 100 737-900ER aircraft to replace is aging 757 fleet, reports Bloomberg News and Air Insight.
According to Air Insight, the carrier will take delivery of all 100 by the end of 2018. The order is a significant win for Boeing, which at one point was believed to not even have planned to bid for the Delta's business after not being able to meet near-term delivery commitments.
The move blocks a further growth in Airbus' North American market share following the purchase of 260 Airbus A320 and A320neo family aircraft by American Airlines on July 20. That order also included 200 737 family aircraft, including the 100 airframe tentative launch order for the re-engined 737-7, -8 and -9 family.
Delta, currently a split narrowbody operator, flies the 737-700 and -800 along side the A319 and A320s the airline inherited through its 2008 merger with Northwest Airlines, the first North American operator of the type.
The Atlanta-based carrier said it planned to acquire a total of 200 new narrowbody aircraft, leaving 50% of the massive fleet renewal order undecided for the smaller end of its mainline fleet, pitting Boeing, Airbus and Bombardier's CSeries against one another.
However, Airbus gained significant ground inside another Boeing stronghold - the Japanese market - with Qantas purchasing 110 A320 and A320neo family aircraft for its low-cost Jetstar to be based in Japan.
UPDATE 12:46 PM ET: CONFIRMED - Delta will order 100 737-900ER aircraft, the largest single order for the type. Further, industry sources confirm that a selection of a smaller narrowbody that pitted the CSeries against the Embraer E-195 has been delayed, as the airline does not see the same level of urgency to replace its 757s starting in 2013. The airline's aircraft evaluations excluded consideration of the re-engined narrowbodies from Airbus and Boeing. FULL STORY
Boeing announced this morning that the 747-8 freighter has been certified by both the US Federal Aviation Administration and European Aviation Safety Agency, clearing the final hurdle before the first aircraft is turned over to Cargolux early in September. Here's my full story on the certification.
UPDATE 7:25 PM ET: It appears as though the first aircraft for delivery, RC502, will be handed over sometime in the first week of September.
Further, Boeing received notification from the FAA that the final six airport that were threatened by the Congressional budget impasse have been fully certified for use by the 747-8. Internationally, ICAO is expected to hand down its verdict on the 747-8's wake vortex separation rules "very soon", says 747 programme vice president of engineering, Todd Zarfos. The 747-400 is required to maintain a 4nm separation and 6nm spacing ahead of general aviation aircraft.
Meanwhile, the 747-8I is progressing into its certification phase of flight test, heading for certification and first delivery at the end of the year. First delivery will see the handover of RC002 to VIP completion, followed by first delivery to Lufthansa for airline service in early 2012.
Boeing appears to be nearing a final decision on the fan size of re-engined 737, settling on a powerplant that will not require any modification to the aircraft's landing gear, confirm company and industry sources.
As the airframer moves closer to a vote by the board of directors later this month, a 66in CFM International Leap-X fan is gaining consensus internally as the final configuration of the re-engined jet which is likely to enter service in 2016 or 2017.
Further, the updated aircraft is expected harmonize the type's brand in line with the 787 and 747, changing the 737-700/800/900ER to the 737-7, -8 and -9.
Boeing declined official comment on fan size deliberation.
The updated jet is also expected to feature external nacelle chevrons for noise reduction, similar to those featured on the 787 and 747-8, and detailed assessments are underway to incorporate a revised tail cone, natural laminar flow nacelle and hybrid laminar flow vertical stabilizer for additional drag and fuel burn reduction.
Boeing is seeking to strike a balance with its design, delivering 10-12% fuel burn improvement with the update engine without changing the 737 too significantly to break fleet commonality with its current models, in turn giving existing customers the flexibility to evaluate the Airbus A320neo without consideration of the switching costs.
Compromise is a central tenet of aircraft design, balancing engineering, manufacturing, certification and cost consideraitons to create a product that best meets customer requirements.
While Boeing's 66in fan will have a lower bypass ratio and higher specific fuel consumption (SFC) than the 78in Leap-X and 81in Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engine options for the A320neo, the smaller engine will weigh less and create less drag on the 737's airframe.
According to one industry assessment of the engine's performance, the SFC improvement of a 66in fan places its SFC improvement around 13-14% over the 61in CFM56-7B engine that powers the 737 today, and once integrated onto the aircraft would deliver a fuel burn benefit of 10-12%.
The narrowing consideration of a 66in fan for the re-negined 737 was first reported by Leeham Co. in an August 10 posting and the study of 65 or 66in fan was reported by Bloomberg in July.
A design shelved earlier this year, designated the 737RE, featured a 70in fan, which required an 8in nose gear extension to meet the required 17in engine nacelle ground clearance to avoid hitting taxiway lighting.
The 737 could have accommodated up to a 67in fan before requiring any changes to the landing gear.
According to that now-defunct plan, the longer nose landing gear would have prompted a redesign in the lower lobe of the forward 41 section would requiring Boeing to modify the electrical equipment (EE) bay to find new routing for wiring and equipment racks.
The changes would have also likely necessitated widespread changes to the aircraft's empennage and fuselage.
Boeing is seeking to avoid repeating the troubles it encountered when developing the 747-8 freighter and Intercontinental, which began its design life as a "simple" re-engine with General Electric GEnx-2B powerplants.
The mounting of the 747's engines and stretching of the fuselage, prompted significant changes to the aircraft's wing and flight control systems that caused a ripple effect across the jumbo's design. In turn, this drove up the extensiveness and cost of the change required to deliver on the jet's performance targets.
Once Boeing receives the go-ahead to offer the 737-7, -8 and -9 to customers, it will be able to begin taking orders for the updated narrowbody, including firming a commitment for 100 of the type from American Airlines, announced on July 20.
Earlier this month, the last parts for United Airlines' (formerly Continental Airlines) first 787 arrived at Boeing's Everett, Washington facility to begin final assembly. The aircraft's center fuselage arrived at Paine Field aboard the Dreamlifter just before All Nippon Airways first 787 was unveiled on August 6, and the forward fuselage arrived from Wichita on August 4.
I managed to capture this particular aircraft at both ends of the supply chain, having photographed the aircraft's 43 Section at Kawasaki Heavy Industries in Nagoya last September before it was shipped to Charleston for integration. In the overnight hours Tuesday, the fuselage sections are expected to be loaded into final body join at position one inside the factory.
This aircraft, Airplane 45, is expected to inaugurate service between the carrier's Houston hub and Auckland, New Zealand after it is delivered in early 2012. The 6444nm journey will be the first route for the 787 to take advantage of the 330 minute ETOPS certification that will be available when the fuel quantity indication system software is updated early next year.
Continental has said they will outfit the aircraft with 228 seats - 38 business and 192 economy - but this announcement was made well before the merger with United. Delivery will happen after the carriers receive its single operating certificate, and may represent the single airline's new long-haul product combining features of both.
Six-hundred and six days after it first began on a cold and rainy December day, it's done. Mostly.
The certification flight trials for Boeing's first 787 variant were completed in the afternoon hours of August 13, rounding out a half-day's worth of testing that took ZA102 to Salt Lake City, Utah and Billings, Montana before returning to Paine Field in Everett.
It would be the last of the required certification flight testing required for the FAA's system functionality and reliability (F&R) testing, which began in late June.
On Sunday, ZA102 flew with a plane-load of passengers to put the the aircraft's IFE and environmental control systems to the test, with final F&R ground tests afterward, say program sources, a test for Boeing, not the FAA.
The Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-powered test fleet has flown nearly 3,800h since ZA001's maiden flight on December 15, 2009 and along with two General Electric GEnx test aircraft, visited 14* countries, and faced high altitudes, freezing and sweltering temperatures, high winds, water and one very important trial by fire.
The 20 months of testing, was significantly longer than the company's first planned eight months, at one point in late 2007 estimating that 787's certification would take as little as five, employing its 24h test methodology to fly 2,430 hours to certify the Rolls-Royce powered 787.
Monday will likely bring the formal announcement by Boeing of the completion of 787's certification flight tests with Trent 1000 Package A engines.
While this first extraordinary chapter in the life of the 787's test program comes to a close, there are still major milestones left to secure, including final US and Japanese regulatory approval and certification of the airframe pairing with 70,000lb Trent 1000 Package B and General Electric GEnx-1B engines still being tested on ZA005 and ZA006, is expected later this year.
The first four deliveries to ANA will be powered by Package A engines and will live their lives rated at 64,000lbs of thrust for short and medium-haul international missions, before the Package B engines - which are being tested in Yuma by ZA004 - advance to within 1% of promised specific fuel consumption.
Notably the 1% SFC is for the engine only, and its yet unclear how close the updated engine gets to the aircraft-wide fuel burn target when integrated, though ANA has said the 787-8 is still capable of reaching to US East Coast from Japan, when they begin international operations in early 2012.
While the Package A certification is a crucial first step to establish the 787's base type certificate, the Package B and GEnx-1B certifications will clear the way for the next 823 ordered by the world's airlines.
*US, Canada, Iceland, UK, France, Poland, Japan, India, Bolivia, Peru, Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Ireland.
With the final days of 787 flight testing with Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 Package A engines coming this weekend, ANA's first 787, ZA101, has moved from the Everett Modification Center (EMC) - formerly ATS Factory South - to the fuel dock for fuel system checkouts, a sign of the aircraft's coming first flight. The 264-seat aircraft will undergo "first of model" evaluations ahead of its delivery to ANA in September.
The aircraft was officially unveiled (video) in a ceremony in Everett last weekend, but after a week of bouncing around I'm finally getting to posting some thoughts on this first 787's notable tidbits. This page did a preliminary look at the interior of the domestically configured aircraft in July, but this was the first opportunity go get hands-on with ANA's first 787.
Continue reading The quirks and questions of All Nippon's first 787.
At first glance, this looks like one of the five heavily modified Airbus A300-600 Beluga Super Transporter, right? Now look again. That is the unmistakable shape of an A330 wing and winglet. The photos, which appear on the Airbus website and photo gallery (page 15), illustrate an A330-300 heavily modified to a next generation Beluga Super Transporter. A quick back-of-the-napkin calculation places an A330 Beluga about 18% longer than the A300-600.
For its coming production increases, Airbus hopes to eventually achieve a rate of 13 A350s per month, but it would appear more likely that narrowbody production would benefit the most if Airbus uses the A330 as a means to advance beyond 42 A320 family aircraft per month.
UPDATE 1:38 PM ET: The official line from Airbus on the photos is: "it is indeed a mistake". The European airframer said it wasn't sure where the graphics came from or why they were posted.
The mistaken publication or creation of the graphics aside, the key question is how far could such an aircraft fly? And more importantly, could it connect central Europe to the southern United States to a city like Mobile, Alabama for example? Toulouse is 4,159 nm, 3,802nm from Broughton and 4,224nm from Hamburg.
As a reference point, an A330-200F has a 4,000nm range with 70t of payload and today's A300-600ST has a range of 1,500nm with 40t and 2,500nm range with 26t.
Photos Credit Airbus
Map Credit Great Circle Mapper
Photo of Note: Introducing JA801A, ANA's first 787, originally uploaded by flightblogger.
EVERETT -- With 787 functionality and reliability (F&R) testing entering what is likely its final six or seven days, Airplane Nine, ZA102, seems to be spending more time in the air than it is on the ground. The aircraft flew five different missions Friday covering three full blocks of testing, which ZA102 is expected to repeat again on Saturday. I captured the jet as it was departing on its fifth flight of the day, and the clip above should give a good sense of the 787's acoustic properties - or possibly lack thereof.
I'll be covering the All Nippon Airways 787 interior and exterior unveiling around mid-day here at Paine Field, so make sure to watch this page (and twitter) for updates.
BOSTON -- My two week stint in the Bay State is more or less at the halfway mark and I've plopped a very fast trip to Seattle right in the middle. Boeing and All Nippon Airways will be unveiling its first 787 on Saturday afternoon. The aircraft, ZA101, which has not yet flown, will be fitted in a short to medium haul configuration for regional and domestic operations out of Tokyo's Haneda airport.
On its exterior, the aircraft will wear a set of specially designed colors for the 787's entry into service in October. Unfortunately my Seattle swing is only about 36 hours so taking in Seafair is decidedly a long shot. I'm on Renton metal for my hop to Seattle through Houston. This 737-800 (Flight 1844 - reg anyone?) is my ride for this "touch the corners" route to the Pacific Northwest. Next stop, Houston.
When RC523 landed in the early morning Wednesday hours following a 17 hour maximum endurance flight, the arrival marked the completion of the aircraft's functionality and reliability (F&R) trials and more importantly the final test of the jumbo freighter's certification campaign. Earlier in the day, RC522 returned to Paine Field in the later afternoon having completed final certification tests on the aircraft Honeywell-build flight management computer (FMC).
Boeing will now make its final paperwork submission to the US Federal Aviation Administration for granting of the aircraft's type certificate, ahead of first delivery to launch customer Cargolux.
The fifth 747-8F is flying its max endurance ETOPS/F&R (extended operations not extended twin-engine operations) mission today, and the crew of RC523 appears to have taken some creative liberties with its flight plan over the western half of the United States. You may recognize the unmistakable shape of the numbers 747 covering the states west of the Mississippi River. The aircraft left Paine Field this morning a little past 7 AM PT and is due in around midnight or so after the 17 hour haul. Here's RC523's active flight plan covering 8,119nm:
SEA J70 MLP J36 GTF HLN DLN TWF PARZZ MVA MQO MVA PARZZ Q121 TOUGH DIK RAP J157 BFF HGO TCC VANSS TCC HGO BFF J157 RAP DIK J36 FAR J140 DLH J21 ICT SPS ICT J21 DLH J140 FAR DIK BFF PARZZ TWF DLN HLN GTF J36 MLP J136 GEG GANGS KPAEThe 787 flew a similar 18hr mission on July 26 from Guam to Everett to wrap up its ETOPS testing and I'll much more on that later.
UPDATE 6:17 PM ET: Boeing pointed out the max endurance flight is being flown under F&R certification, not ETOPS. As it turns out cargo models are exempt from the ETOPS rules as part of the 2007 update.
UPDATE 11:36 AM ET: RC523 landed a little after midnight on the west coast completing its 17h flight covering an estimated 10,137nm, according to Flightaware, and successfully flew a track that spelled 747 across 18 US states.
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