787 accounting block tops 1,100, Boeing drops 2011 delivery forecast

HONG KONG – Quick take: Boeing third quarter earnings are just out now and a quick glance puts deliveries of 747-8s and 787s between 15 and 20 down from 25 to 30, which was lowered in July from 25 to 40. Notably absent from today’s 787 service entry events was an explicit message by Boeing 787 vice president and general manager Scott Fancher that 10 787s a month by the end of 2013 was the plan. Reading between the lines, it was just never said, but saying the company was “confident” in the plan it had come up with to increase 787 output.

More importantly, Boeing has set the initial 787 accounting block at 1,100 a very, very large figure and higher than the estimates last week of around 1,000 deliveries. That number began nudging up as company contacts indicated to analysts that the accounting figure could rise as high as 1,200 before today’s disclosure. This figure places the achievement of 787 profitability prospects over a production landscape of more than a decade, presuming the company meets 120 per year at the end of 2013.