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December 2011 Archives

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On a wintery morning in St. Nazaire, France today, the first fuselage section of the Airbus A350 static airframe was loaded onto the A300-600ST Beluga transport aircraft. It's destination was Toulouse, France, site of the aircraft's final assembly operations. This airframe, also known as ES or MSN5000, will never fly and will be used in ground testing to validate the static strength of the aircraft's composite wings and paneled fuselage.

This particular section began mating in St. Nazaire on December 9, after it was delivered on September 27 from Aerolia which makes the Section 11/12 forward-most fuselage section in Méaulte, France. MSN1 followed MSN5000 to St. Nazaire and had begun initial assembly as of early-November.

The MSN5000's forward fuselage will be mated to the center fuselage beginning in the first quarter next year and final assembly of MSN1 in Toulouse will begin in the second quarter. First deliveries of the A350-900 are now planned for the first half of 2014.

Additional photos are available below the fold.

Photo Credit Airbus

With nine days to go, Boeing is working to deliver three more 787s to ANA before the close of year. At the time of its inaugural service in late-October, ANA had anticipated seven 787 deliveries by year's end. Two have since been delivered since late-September and the carrier will receive at most a total of five in 2011, with that goal looking extremely tight. Change incorporation operations have dwindled that target down to Airplanes 31 (JA805A), 41 (JA807A) and Nine (JA804A). At least one of those is expected to feature the newly-certified Package B Trent 1000 engines and the airline's 158-seat long-haul configuration. FULL STORY

UPDATE 12/23 1:41 PM ET: To date, Boeing has delivered nine, not eight, 747-8 freighters, with a December 15 delivery to Atlas Air (G-GSSF) operated on behalf of British Airways Cargo. Further, Airplane 31, the next delivery to ANA, will be the airline's first 158-seat long-range internationally configured aircraft and the first delivery with Package B Trent 1000 engines.

Video Courtesy Matt Cawby
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The reported existence of a customer for the Paris Air Show mystery order for 10 CS100ER aircraft is now pinned to Odyssey Airlines, a possible new trans-atlantic start-up out of London City Airport. Though one question in particular keeps coming up: Can Bombardier's 125-seat aircraft fly the mission in an all-premium configuration?

Narrowbody aircraft not designed with the over-water mission in mind, infrequently find themselves in a niche role crossing the pond. Most notably, the Airbus A318, with its extra long fin has been flying the Atlantic for British Airways from London City in the heart of the financial district since October 2008 with a great deal of success. This is where Odyssey finds its chief competition.

With its steep approach capability and just 32 B/E Aerospace Minipod business class seats in the cabin, the aircraft is able to arrive and depart the 4,984ft runway at London City. Because of the easterly winds and the weight of the aircraft's restricted take-off roll, BA001 makes a fuel stop in Shannon on its westbound hop while passengers are pre-cleared through US Customs. 

British Airways was seriously considering expanding to additional cities on the east coast including Boston and Washington, DC, but that expansion has not yet materialized. As it looks to the future, the double shrunken A318, will not be re-engined with CFM International Leap-1A and Pratt & Whitney PW1100G-JM like its larger siblings and won't benefit from the decrease in fuel burn. However, the A318 will eventually be fitted with sharklets.

To try and answer the question of the A318's probable performance against the CSeries, PianoX, an independent aircraft performance analysis tool was employed to calculate payload capability, emissions and fuel burn over a given segment. 

Here it has been used to compare 32-seat configurations aboard the Airbus A318 against available data on the Bombardier CSeries CS100ER between LCY and JFK. Dimitri Simos, who built PianoX, put together the following analysis comparing the two aircraft across the Atlantic. 

An initial analysis was originally conducted in late 2009 and updated this month. The complete analysis is included below the fold, but can also be found here (PDF).
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Its launch customer now in hand and its production system taking shape, Boeing's future 737 Max development resembles its narrowbody programmes of its past. The airframer has backed up its commitment for a minimum-change aircraft with stakeholders who rely on the continuity of the aircraft's design.

Southwest Airlines, launch customer for the 737-300, -500 and -700, announced the 737 Max's first firm order on 13 December, adding 208 new narrowbodies to its backlog, including 150 re-engined aircraft.

The order is valued at $19 billion, though Southwest expects to spend on average $1.2 billion on capital expenditure each year between 2012 and 2022.

Boeing hopes to minimize the changes between the Next Generation 737 and the 737 Max preserving both the common pilot type rating and grandfathered US Federal Aviation Administration certification.

Southwest's launch order for the 737 Max will guide the aircraft's development, including which variant is built and tested first. So far, it appears the airline will forego the smaller -7 and put the -8 on that path to be Max One, though Boeing says: "Southwest has the flexibility to choose from 737-7s and 737-8s so it's their decision on which will be first."

In its role as launch customer, Southwest - a staunch advocate of minimum change technologies to optimise products and innovate its operational processes - will guide the development of the new 737 variant, which includes the re-engined 737-7, -8 and -9.

Though the Southwest of 2011 isn't the Southwest of 1993 that launched the Next Generation 737 family or the 737 Classic in 1981 and has evolved from its previous habits that made it the largest domestic carrier in the US. It's slow and methodical growth has been its hallmark, though the US low-cost carrier has grown through a major acquisition, with the purchase of AirTran Airways and it has moved toward larger aircraft as it pushes into the the country's most tightly controlled airports to see a greater return on its investment.

That strategic outlook and its transformation to a faster growing company, explains the work of London School of Economics academic Dr. Theodore Piepenbrock, has been at the root of Southwest's market dominance and overall cost advantage among the US domestic carriers.

"We tried to stay with a commonality theme," says Brian Hirshman, Southwest senior vice president of technical operations of the company's fleet philosophy. "Of course, we wanted to improve upon efficiency and productivity around the airplane, so we've been working closely with Boeing and it's every much an iterative process. Our intention is to play a very important part in the development of the airplane right up through entry into service."

The December 7 ratification of the new four-year International Machinists and Aerospace Workers contract made official Boeing's selection of its Renton, Washington final assembly line as the new home for the 737 Max, preserving an industrial footprint that has evolved from its earliest incarnations as a slant production system in 1970 after being consolidated with the 707 and 727 to today's ultra-efficient moving assembly line.

The first production 737 Max will be delivered to Southwest in the fourth quarter 2017, the first of four the airline expects to receive that year.

After the troubled development of the now certified 787-8, 747-8F and 747-8I, Boeing will advance into the initial development work for the 737 Max establishing final configuration in mid-2013.

Though significant unknowns remain about the 737 MAX, John Hamilton 737 chief programme engineer says: "The configuration is well enough known that Southwest and Boeing had confidence going forward with the deal at this time."

Boeing's strategic tendency toward big jumps in technology on its recent products will likely be tempered by Southwest's conservatism and strategic philosophy that has guided the airframer's last two incremental 737 variant families.

Southwest has adopted a conservative expectation for the 737 Max, touting a 10-11% fuel burn improvement between the 737-800, which will arrive in its fleet in 2012, and the 737-8, one percentage point lower than the 10-12% figure touted by Boeing.

"We look forward to working with Southwest over the next five or six years to make sure it is the right airplane for Southwest and we will deliver the real thing - I guarantee you - on schedule and on spec and you will continue to have the best airplane in the marketplace," says Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh.

Despite the addition of a strengthened airframe, new tail cone, raised nose landing gear and fly-by-wire spoilers, the external configuration will still remain largely familiar to that of the previous 737s, with the larger 173cm (68in) CFM International Leap-1B engine expected to deliver the overwhelming block of the aircraft's fuel burn improvement.

CFM, for now, isn't yet sharing much detail about its "custom core" that power Max.

"All I can tell you is the core for the Leap-1B is optimised for the Leap-1B engine," says Chaker Chahrour CFM executive vice president, "The engine itself is optimised to deliver the best performance on that airplane and the core is optimised to be compatible with that engine."

Photo Credit Boeing, FlyingJ31 & Tbird-Boston
Lufthansa Boeing 747-8I D-ABYE/N6067U RC021

This is a breaking story and will be updated.
Boeing Unveils First 787 to Enter Service for Japan Airlines

Boeing rolled out the first 787 to be delivered to Japan Airlines, now painted in its updated livery. The aircraft, whose final registration is currently unknown - believed to be Airplane 23 - will be handed over to JAL early next year following certification of the GEnx-1B-powered 787. JAL is set to be launch customer for the 787 pairing with GEnx engines, though this had only become explicitly detailed in recent weeks in comments by Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh. 

Air India's first 787, a GEnx-powered aircraft, had initially been planned for delivery late this year, though final GEnx-1B testing on a production airframe, Airplane 35, had been delayed as the aircraft wasn't ready to fly. At last plan, Airplane 35 was set to fly during the middle of this month.

Photo Credit Boeing
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For the fourth time in Boeing history, Southwest Airlines will be launch customer for a 737 variant, placing an order for 150 737 Max aircraft and an additional 58 Next Generation 737s.

The commitment valued at $19 billion, is the largest firm order in Boeing's history in both volume and dollar value, besting November's $18 billion Emirates 777-300ER order for 50 aircraft.

Southwest will take its first delivery, which looks to be a 737-8, starting in 2017.

Boeing yesterday established its list prices for the 737 Max family, ranging from $77.7 million for the 737-7, $95.2 million for the -8 and $101.7 million for the -9.

Southwest previously served as launch customer for the 737-300 in 1981, the 737-500 in 1987 and the 737-700 in 1993.

The order raises Boeing's firm order and commitment total to more than 900 aircraft from 13 customers. 

UPDATE 3:23 PM ET: I've authored four articles exploring different aspects of the 737 Max launch order:

Southwest Airlines' launch order for the 737 Max will guide the aircraft's development, including which variant is built and tested first.

Citing fleet commonality and aircraft performance, Southwest Airlines selected the 737 Max over the A320neo, said the airline's technical and operations leaders.

Southwest Airlines is embarking on a decade of fleet modernisation after its decision to become the launch customer for the Boeing 737 Max.

Boeing now holds firm orders and commitments for 948 737 Max aircraft from 13 customers, and expects that figure to climb to as high as 1,500 by the end of 2012, said the company's top executive.

Photo Credit Boeing

ZA006 Returns Home After Circling the Globe

Boeing Flight 6 returned to Boeing Field early this morning, breaking two world speed records 42h 27min after it left the same spot on December 6. The first leg broke the distance record for the 787's 440,000-550,000lb weight class covering 10,710nm (19,835km). Upon completion of the second 9,734nm (18,027km) leg established the eastbound speed around the world record for the weight class. Thirteen, including six pilots and one National Aeronautic Association (NAA) observer, were on board for the fuel laden flight.

Boeing did not release the ZA006's weights or the arrival and departure times in Bangladesh. 

Using a combination of flight plan data and Boeing information, I pieced together the approximate routes of each leg.

Flight One: BFI-DAC. Departure 11:02 AM PT, December 6 - 10,710nm
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Flight Two: DAC-BFI. Arrival 5:29 AM PT, December 8 - 9,734nm
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Photo Credit Boeing & Maps created with GCmap.com
Turkish Airlines Boeing 737-900ER TC-JYB

With 74% of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers local 751 voting to approve a four-year contract extension, the longest running commercial aircraft production facility in the world will now be home to the 737 Max. (My Full Story)
Boeing Field 737 Delivery Center

When October ended the 787 hadn't yet entered scheduled revenue service, the A350 wasn't delayed, the A320neo had no launch customer, Embraer hadn't picked a direction for its future products, Continental Airlines still existed and American Airlines wasn't bankrupt.

Add the record aircraft orders from Emirates and Lion Air, retirement of ZA001, the first flight of a Sharklet-equipped A320 and November 2011 was the month that shook commercial aviation.

One event in particular, the landmark deal between Boeing and the IAM to place the 737 Max production on its ultra-lean Renton final assembly line will shape the landscape for at least the next half-decade.

The agreement was the month's biggest surprise, the culmination of four weeks of secret negotiations, which began in late-October, and whose commencement came just a month after the IAM released once-secret documents related to Project Gemini, the 787's second line selection. 

That moment in a downtown Seattle hotel meeting room was arguably the low-point in relations between the union and Boeing management. The revelation was called the "smoking gun" that validated the IAM and National Labor Relations Board complaint against the company's selection of Charleston as the 787's second home.

This is where the relationship stood nine weeks ago:
This revelation will no-doubt spur a discussion that laments the actions of management or labor, but the publication of the documents - and their content - illustrate just how deep the adversarial "arm's-length" relationships runs between Boeing and its workforce stakeholder. Boeing's own description of a labor "hostage situation" is perhaps the clearest example of the state of its interaction with the representation of its largest group of employees.

The Piepenbrock Framework explains not only product development strategies of big "Blue" leaps, but the short-term decision-making that erodes trust and collaboration for mutual benefit of the organization's stakeholders. Boeing's relationship with labor, and labor's relationship with Boeing, by this standard, is a deep shade of Blue with little collaboration or trust to be found.

The documents illustrate, above all, how Boeing's leadership views its strategic decisions through a zero-sum lens that any move that creates a winner, must also by definition, create a loser.
The landmark nature of Boeing's new four-year agreement, which is being voted on today at union halls around Puget Sound and Portland, is notable primarily for its timing, coming nearly a year before the contract's expiration. The new contract extends its existing contract to 2016 and slows employee wage growth compared to the 2008 contract and increases healthcare contributions, but was greeted by many with great relief, as it accompanied a Renton promise of 737 Max production, a $5,000 ratification bonus and the avoidance of a strike next fall.

Though the sentiment is not universal, tweeted the Seattle Times aerospace reporter Dominic Gates, who was speaking with Machinists in line to vote earlier today: "Machinists don't love this Boeing deal. But voting yes anyway for the most part."

Boeing initially planned to select the 737 Max final assembly line site in mid-2012, in the thick of its contract negotiations. Whether it was explicit or not, the Max line had become a proverbial bargaining chip in lieu of a production decisions for a now-shelved New Small Airplane. The production system now matches Boeing's "minimum change" goal for the new variant's development.

While the event reflects a changed tone between the leadership of both parties, what remains to be seen is if this direction toward cooperation can be sustained for the long term. Lasting structural change doesn't happen after four weeks and Boeing and the IAM's detente provides labor stability over the next four years. That stability has prompted a 9% increase in its stock price since the agreement was first announced.

The coming 40% expansion of its production rates means the hiring of more machinists and higher revenues with which to bolster Boeing's corporate earnings, a definitive short-term benefit for both.

"We wouldn't go up in rate if we didn't think we could sustain it for 2-3 years," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh last week, indirectly portending reduced production rates later in the decade.

How the parties work together to either mitigate the impact of an oversupplied market or manage a reduction in production rates, will likely test sustainability of the relationship. Boeing's production habits have reflected, and arguably been a significant contributor to, the cyclicality of the industry and rapidly accelerating and potentially decelerating production rates will be the test of the future. While the stability of the Boeing/IAM relationship in good times is necessary, the relationship in challenging times is perhaps even more essential.

On the other end of the 737 Max supply chain, Spirit AeroSystem's engineers, represented by SPEEA's Wichita Technical and Professional Unit (WTPU) reached a nine and a half year agreement last week as well, complete with an incentive package tied directly to the performance of the largest aerostructures supplier in the world. 

The contract mirrors Spirit's decade-long agreement with its own machinists, offering both labor stability and predictable costs as it manages its growth. The company, formerly Boeing Wichita, has supplied fuselages, pylons and thrust reversers for each of the more than 7,000 737s built to date.

For Boeing, which has yet to firm its list price for the new re-engined narrowbody, the production economics of the 737 Max are beginning to come into focus, but more than the dollars and cents of the agreement, beginning the work of developing long-term stability and trust at the company can provide a positive ripple effect across the industry as airlines and suppliers plan for the future.
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Boeing is taking the 787 to Bangladesh today, typically a brief 12h 40min polar flight, the GEnx-1B-powered ZA006 is taking a decidedly longer route across the North Atlantic and through Europe and Asia. The flight will take the 787 from Boeing Field in Seattle to Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka, the nation's capital city.

Dhaka is an interesting choice for the record flight's destination, Biman Bangladesh, which just recently received its first 777-300ER, is a 787 customer.

The now filed flight plan has the aircraft aloft for 20h 23min, breaking the current 787 endurance record by more than two hours after ZA102 flew non-stop from Guam to Paine Filed in 18h 7min to complete systems functionality and reliability testing in August.
SEA J70 MLP J36 DIK J70 ABR J90 RWF J34 WOOST J146 JFK J225 PVD J55 BOS J575 YQY VIXUN LOGSU 4900N 5000W 5100N 4000W 5100N 3000W 4900N 2000W BERUX UP179 STG UN725 ORKUM UM603 ARSIK UM731 TEKSA UM732 CAR UM871 NOTRI UQ789 ORTAP UP167 ARLOS UN4 SALUN A145 BRN UP751 LXR A145 ALMAL B418 ASPAN UN318 LOXAT N318 KATIK A415 SHJ P307 VAXIM L301 RASKI L301 NOBAT L505 OPAKA G450 CEA A462 DAC
While it won't break 2005's 22h 42min 777-200LR world record flight from Hong Kong to London, ZA006's journey will likely set a record for longest endurance flight for an aircraft in its weight class, as its maximum takeoff weight is nearly a quarter million pound less than that of the -200LR.

I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this as the record flight unfolds.

Photo Credit Russell Hill
Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner ZA236

Flight International's Italy Special Report is out this week and business editor Dan Thisdell, takes a close look at Finmeccanica, the troubled Italian aerospace company. The impact of rising development costs and workmanship issues from Alenia Aeronautica, the unit of Finmeccanica responsible for supplying the Boeing 787's Section 44 and 46 fuselage barrels and horizontal stabilizer, forced a billion dollar (€753 million) charge against the company's earnings in the third quarter, €161 million of which paid as a penalty to Boeing for the "non-compliance" of the stabilizers.

For the proper context, Alenia's initial August 2005 contract for 787 was valued at $1.1 billion over the first 150 aircraft, or about $7.3 million per shipset. 

The Italian supplier has since been removed as the sole source for the 787-9's horizontal stabilizer, which will now be built to start at Boeing's Seattle Development Center.

The impact of skyrocketing 787 program-wide costs due to the "major technological, process and structural challenges" were so systemic and "substantial", reports Thisdell, that CEO Giuseppe Orsi believed that Boeing would cancel the aircraft's development.
The €592 million figure was based on a huge increase in Finmeccanica's assessment of the contract cost. Up until the end of the first half, Orsi explains, Finmeccanica valued the programme at only 300 shipsets, as there had been a "tangible risk" that a permanent increase in development and industrialisation costs would lead Boeing to cancel the 787 programme. In the event of cancellation, Finmeccanica would have kept a Boeing cash advance, but with certification and first delivery finally achieved, cancellation is "quite unlikely" and that, says Orsi, changes the calculations dramatically, as the contract is now valued at 1,022 shipsets.

Orsi believes the 787 will, now, prove profitable over the 1,022 aircraft plan, and should provide "low single-digit" profitability during the early programme period.
The 1,022 profitability figure for Alenia is in line with Boeing's initial accounting quantity of 1,100 deliveries which the airframer says was driven by both the rising costs of the program and the substantial demand for the aircraft, far in excess of the accounting block of 400 for the 747, 757, 767, 777 and 737NG programs

Finmeccanica-Alenia787plan.jpgNow with the billion dollar charge to its earnings due to 787, Finmeccanica believes it will now turn a profit over 1,022 deliveries when coupled with its cost reduction plan. Unclear if that profitability will  take the company longer to achieve than Boeing as its new second source role on the 787-9, reduces its revenue by half per shipset, though Alenia is "assured" 100% production rates for the yet-to-be-launched 787-10X.

Though Orsi's acknowledges that the company's financial troubles go far beyond the 787, his take on the impact of the rising development price tag is the first public acknowledgement of by a supplier of the dire seriousness of the 787's cost increases that almost made the program not worth Boeing's undertaking.

Long-range delivery flights are standard practice in an industry without any borders and the product itself is its own delivery system. Today's Movie Monday, produced and filmed by Anna Lucchese, takes us inside an aircraft's extended journey to its customer.

In May, an Embraer Phenom 100, the Brazilian airframer's very light jet, or entry-level jet depending on your preferred nomenclature, was delivered from the company's Sao Jose dos Campos base to New Delhi, India. The aircraft (N4200), which is owned by the Joyalukkas Group, crossed from South America to South Asia over 19 legs and nine days. 

While this particular aircraft had a long way to travel to its customer, in Melbourne, Florida today, Embraer is delivering the first US built Phenom 100 to a US customer, the first North American expansion for the company, adding to its Brazilian and Chinese manufacturing footprints.

Movie Monday runs just under 10 minutes. Enjoy.