CHICAGO O'HARE AIRPORT, K TERMINAL (en route to Minneapolis) -- It
could not be a more auspicious moment for the US Regional Airline
Association (RAA) to stage its annual convention this week in
Minneapolis.The
RAA's airlines members are in upheaval, with two (American Eagle and
Pinnacle) in bankruptcy, one (Republic Airways Holdings) reorganizing a
major subsidiary (Chautauqua) and still another (SkyWest Inc) posting
its first annual loss in 23 years.
The regional airframers are hardly in better shape. Bombardier sold only 11 commercial regional aircraft all of last year, though sales rebounded in the first quarter. Superjet International is still reeling from the 9 May crash, which killed 45 people and hung a cloud over the programme until the investigation concludes. Meanwhile, the Mitsubishi Regional Jet has announced a roughly 18-month delay to service introduction.
And, yet, there is this fact: Both Bombardier and Embraer have publicly predicted that these beleaguered US regional airlines are poised to buy hundreds of new aircraft. Embraer confirms it is in talks with at least five US regional airlines on deals for a total of more than 400 aircraft this year.
Indeed, both airframers are counting on the US orders this year, as regional aircraft sales are expected to decline elsewhere in the world. If the orders are consummated, they promise to begin a fundamental reshaping of the US regional airline sector, with the increasingly uneconomical 50-seaters exchanged via scope clause relief for 70-80-seaters.
Judging by the age of the US regional fleets, Bombardier and Embraer have a point. With regional aircraft generally acquired on 15-year finance terms, the FlightglobalAscend database (see chart below) counts more than 500 44-50-seaters at least 10 years old in US regional airline fleets.
The regional airframers are hardly in better shape. Bombardier sold only 11 commercial regional aircraft all of last year, though sales rebounded in the first quarter. Superjet International is still reeling from the 9 May crash, which killed 45 people and hung a cloud over the programme until the investigation concludes. Meanwhile, the Mitsubishi Regional Jet has announced a roughly 18-month delay to service introduction.
And, yet, there is this fact: Both Bombardier and Embraer have publicly predicted that these beleaguered US regional airlines are poised to buy hundreds of new aircraft. Embraer confirms it is in talks with at least five US regional airlines on deals for a total of more than 400 aircraft this year.
Indeed, both airframers are counting on the US orders this year, as regional aircraft sales are expected to decline elsewhere in the world. If the orders are consummated, they promise to begin a fundamental reshaping of the US regional airline sector, with the increasingly uneconomical 50-seaters exchanged via scope clause relief for 70-80-seaters.
Judging by the age of the US regional fleets, Bombardier and Embraer have a point. With regional aircraft generally acquired on 15-year finance terms, the FlightglobalAscend database (see chart below) counts more than 500 44-50-seaters at least 10 years old in US regional airline fleets.
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