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The Non-Merger Merger

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With oil spiraling towards $150, Continental a found the 4th way to survive the fuel crisis. In conjunction with the retirement of the Classic 737s, the airline is joining up with Star Alliance and apparently abandoning Sky Team and Delta-Northwest in the process. It's another way to cut capacity by sharing revenue on overlapping routes. It's the non-merger merger.

What's the best way to operate a profitable route? Let someone else fly it.

Larry Kellner was quite clear in his desire to keep Continental on its own. Should be very interesting to see how this one plays out.

Continental Airlines and United Airlines Announce Comprehensive Plan for Global Cooperation; Continental Plans to Join Star Alliance


CHICAGO, June 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL) and United Airlines (Nasdaq: UAUA) today announced a framework agreement to cooperate extensively, linking their networks and services worldwide to the benefit of customers, and creating revenue opportunities and cost savings and other efficiencies. In addition, Continental plans to join United in the Star Alliance, the most comprehensive airline alliance in the world.

The Oil Drumbeat and B.A.B.E.

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OKC_2.jpgIs the airline crisis of 2008 worse than the economic aftermath of September 11, 2001?

Yes, absolutely.

9/11 was a crisis of confidence in the safety of air travel. Airlines simply couldn't fill their planes. The 2008 crisis is far more serious. The psychological injury of 9/11 has since healed and empty planes and cheap gas has given way to very full planes and the most expensive gas in US history.

The crisis cuts even deeper now because access to new sources of revenue aren't available when planes are already full. Instead we see higher ticket prices or new fees on first bags, second bags, legroom, food, curb-side check-in and soon seatbelt usage (snark). Eventually, the price of flying will become so prohibitively high that the bottom of the market may just fall out completely. The upper level of tolerance for ticket prices is not clear yet, but it will run out eventually, and when it does leisure travel is going to take a major hit, only further slowing the economy.

Just as 9/11 saw the retirement of 737-200s, 727s, 747-200s, DC-9s, 10s and L1011s, the crisis we find ourselves in today has 737 classics, the remaining DC-9s and soon MD-80s on the chopping block. Also, once the new generation of mid-size wide-body aircraft enter service at the end of next year, the older 767s will be retired.

So, as the fuel crisis for airlines only gets worse, the three options (the good, the bad and the ugly) merging, cutting capacity or declaring bankruptcy is the only way forward.

Struggling airlines invariably mean struggling manufacturers. Or does it?

The big four (Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer) - B.A.B.E. - consider it coined - all have huge backlogs to fall back on if orders dry up.  However this crisis should give them all pause to ask themselves if their product lines are prepared for the painful market dynamics ahead. All would likely answer yes, but here's a few thoughts for the road ahead.

Virgin America: IFE Heaven

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Virgin America - Red welcome ScreenLos Angeles -- For my flight to Seattle, I jumped at the opportunity to try Virgin America for the first time. I've spent plenty of time analyzing the new airline andwhat it means for the global Virgin brand, but had yet to have the chance to see it first hand.

With the limited route network of this new airline, it did mean I would have to connect in Los Angeles to get to Seattle, however the tech and plane aficionado in me wanted to get hands-on with the unique experience in the cabin of N526VA, a four month-old Airbus A319.

When boarding I was immediately struck by the purple and pink signature mood-lighting has found its way onto Virgin America's fleet.

Yet, the real gem on this A319 lives in the headrest at every seat.

IMG_0375.JPGEach seat's IFE hosts a 9" Linux based touch screen user interface called Red that allows users to watch live TV, watch new-release movies on-demand, hop into a chat room or instant message another passenger with the QWERTY keyboard on each hand controller, play games (including Doom - which this blogger enjoyed greatly) and create a custom playlist of songs from 240 artists you've actually heard of. As the flight progressed, all these events were saved in a section called 'my media' which allowed me to flip between the TV station I last watched, the movie I had rented (a free TEDTalks seminar with Sir Richard Branson), and my playlist, which was getting quite long packed with The Who, Bruce Springsteen and U2.

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Delta and Northwest

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A FlightBlogger Exclusive:
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Printable PDF - 2 MB

Open Skies 2.0: Virgin Global

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Sir Richard Branson, the founder and Chairman of the Virgin Group, has never made a secret of his desire to spread the Virgin brand.

Four airlines are linked to the Virgin brand: Virgin Atlantic, Virgin Blue, Virgin Nigeria and Virgin America. Australia's Virgin Blue is actually a collection of three additional airlines: Pacific Blue, Polynesian Blue and the new V Australia.

Because of foreign ownership rules, these airlines are independent entities united by brand only. There is no common frequent flyer program across all the airlines, no ability to book tickets across airlines and no codeshares.

Separate from one another, the airlines of the Virgin brand have significantly penetrated regional markets in Africa and Oceania. Following closely behind, Virgin America, though off to a rocky start, is expanding domestic service in the US. Virgin Atlantic, now almost a quarter century old, has a global network serving 34 cities on six continents.

Maps generated by the
Great Circle Mapper -
copyright © Karl L. Swartz.

Start Ups and Launch Customers

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Start-Ups
SouthWestJetBluezil just doesn't sound right, so David Neeleman is going to have to come up a more creative brand to fly his newly ordered 36 Embraer E-195s. The yet unnamed Brazilian start-up will go head to head with GOL, TAM and Varig in a rapidly growing market. The Sao Paolo-Rio De Janeiro Route is one of the busiest air corridors in the world, which fits Neeleman's MO to a tee. JetBlue started out flying between New York destinations and Fort Lauderdale, one of the busiest US air corridors. Interestingly enough, this order makes Neeleman's start-up the Brazilian launch customer for the homegrown E-Jet.

Launch Customers
This blog reported just days ago that ANA would be an order to become the launch customer of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet. At the time, I speculated that the order would be announced prior to the Farnborough Air Show this July. Well, the information was sound, it just happened even sooner than first thought. ANA ordered 15 MRJs, plus an additional 10 options today. Not only us ANA a launch customer for the MRJ, which is expected to enter service in Japan in late 2013, they will also be launching the fuel efficient Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine which will power the 70-90 seat regional jet.

Enhanced Technology for Niche Markets

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When an aircraft is first imagined on the drawing board, an ideal mission profile is modeled with city pairs, frequencies and payloads. When the new aircraft enters service, more likely than not the operator identifies a mission profile similar to what the manufacturer had intended.

Occasionally, you see an airline take the ideal mission profile and tear it to shreds. No one fully envisioned a 757 would be flying trans-Atlantic or an A320 trans-continental.

Taking a leap one step further, British Airways has ordered two Airbus A318 in a 32 seat all-business configuration to find its way into an ultra-niche market. The newest (and shortest) member of the A320 family will be put into service between London City Airport in the heart of the financial district and New York City. There has been a raging debate about whether or not this service is a good idea for BA. (See podcast) Either way, this is a bold step forward in responding to the premium trans-Atlantic carriers that are flying 767s out of Stansted.

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The aircraft itself will be pushed to its operational limits. With a range of 3,700 nm, the aircraft will be able to make the trip without stopping for fuel on the east-bound leg from New York with the reduced weight. However, a 40 minute fuel stop will be required on the westbound leg. The exact location for the stop has yet to be determined, however Shannon, Ireland appears to be at the top of the list.

British Airways has selected CFM56 engines to power its pair of A318s. Both the CFM56 & PW6000 engine each have 180 minute ETOPS certification, essential for safe and efficient twin engine operations over the Atlantic.

The block times, according to Crankyflyer, a fellow blogger and GWU Alum, clocks in at 7 hours and 10 minutes to London (compare 6:55 - 747-400 JFK-LHR). The return leg is a lengthy 9 hours and 30 minutes (compare 7:10 – 747-400 LHR-JFK) back to the states, which includes the fuel stop.

Beantown to Beijing, Continued

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Progress on Boston's first Asian route. Clearly discussions have been fruitful:

Xinhua Financial Network News
December 6, 2007
Thursday 3:36 PM GMT

US state governor hopes to see 'progress' on Boston-China direct flights

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - Deval Patrick, governor of the US state of Massachusetts, said he is close to reaching an agreement that would allow direct commercial flights to Beijing and Shanghai from Boston's Logan International Airport.

"We're one of the few major cities in America that doesn't have direct service. We're working on that, and we have made some progress and we hope to have something to announce, if not by the end of our visit here, then shortly thereafter," Patrick said in a statement.

Patrick is currently heading a trade delegation to China.

He told XFN-Asia in an interview earlier: "There are no direct flights between Boston and any of the commercial capitals of China, but we have 68,000 people who travel between Massachusetts and China every year. So it's a market waiting for someone to make money. Hainan Airlines comes to mind."

Podcast: Hawaiian Buys Airbus

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The latest podcast from aviationpodcasts.com and IAG is an absolute must. Addison Schonland sat down with Mark Dunkerely, President and CEO of Hawaiian Airlines to talk about the A350 purchase. They cover the map with talk of delivery dates, engine manufacturers, new routes, and even the possibility of new narrow-bodies.

LISTEN HERE

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Beantown to Beijing

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Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts (D) departed for a trade mission November 30 to China by departing Boston's Logan International Airport with a 40 member delegation for a direct flight to...

...another airport in the US that serves China directly.

Currently, Boston has no direct service to Asia.

Logan Airport has always been limited by a runway that is unable to accommodate a fully loaded 747-400. Korean Airlines operated service between BOS-IAD-ICN, not the most attractive of options for New England travelers. The 747 would depart Boston with many empty seats and fly to Washington, DC to pick up additional passengers before flying to Seoul. The airline struggled to achieve profitability on the route and it was eventually canceled in July 2001.

Talk of establishing the route had been floating around the aviation world when Boston's Mayor Menino first announced plans for the service in early 2006.

According to his public schedule, Governor Patrick will be sharing dinner with the Chairman of the soon-to-be-re-branded Hainan Airlines (Grand China Air), this evening (December 3rd). Undoubtedly, a topic of conversation will be the air link between Boston and China. Accompanying Governor Patrick on the Trade Mission is the CEO of the Massachusetts Port Authority (Massport) Tom Kinton who oversees the operation of Logan Airport.

Not coincidentally last week, a member of the Governor's Commission on Asian American Affairs reaffirmed that flights between BOS and PEK were planned for launch sometime in 2009.

Grand China Air will fly its new Boeing 787s on the route. GCA is expected to receive ZA012 and ZA016 sometime in 2009 following flight testing and certification of the Dreamliner which is expected to begin in March 2008.

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