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Lufthansa Boeing 747-8I D-ABYA RC022

Lufthansa Boeing 747-8I D-ABYA RC022

Lufthansa Boeing 747-8I D-ABYA RC022

EVERETT -- Sometimes running late pays off. 

I was zipping out the door this morning for the last day of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood and running a few minutes late (as those who know me I am sometimes prone to be) when Lufthansa's first 747-8 taxied into position on Runway 16R at Paine Field. 

RC022 operating at Boeing 22, registered D-ABYA, did a quick rejected takeoff test turned around at the end of 16R and departed to the north a few minutes before 9 AM PT. 

The aircraft is expected to be handed over to Lufthansa in March. 

The full set of photos of D-ABYA's first takeoff, which were shot through a barely cracked window of my hotel room, are below the fold.
JA805A @ EDDF 01.02.2012

ANA's first 787 flights with JA801A and JA802A on domestic flights within Japan have been nearly flawless, with a 96.3% on time reliability during its first months of service. For JA805A, the first 158-seat 787 in long-haul international configuration, the introduction on the Tokyo-Haneda to Frankfurt route, the first long-haul service, has been anything but smooth.
All Nippon Airways first long-haul international service with its Boeing 787 has faced a rocky start since 21 January with two of its ten flights operating between Tokyo-Haneda and Frankfurt, Germany cancelled due to technical issues with the new aircraft, the airline confirmed.

ANA cancelled flight NH204 on 26 January and NH203 30 January. Other 787 flights to Germany operated on 21, 23, 26 and 28 January.

The 26 January service was cancelled in Frankfurt when the aircraft's flap system failed, while the 30 January cancellation in Haneda was due to "a temporary failure of the computer software which monitors and controls the aircraft", said ANA, adding "the aircraft has been repaired by replacing the computer's concerned parts and loading software."
Of the five 787 deliveries to ANA, JA805A, Airplane 31, delivered on December 30, is operating exclusively on the airline's long-range international flights.

Photo Credit Carsten Gurk
NAS-737-Max-Winglet_560.jpg
To date, Airbus and Boeing have split three of the five announced 737 Max customers: American Airlines, Aviation Capital Group and now Norwegian Air Shuttle.
 
Norwegian's order for 100 737-8s is a big boost for the re-engined jet as it grows its firm backlog and hardly a surprise as the northern European airline is one of Boeing's stalwart narrowbody customers. Though accompanying that order were 100 more Airbus A320neos.

Fundamentally the "minimum change" Max is a derivative development from today's Next Generation 737, just as the Next Generation family was a derivative of the 737 Classic. With 75% non-commonality, the 737-600, -700, -800 and -900 unlocked the Classic's customers to consider the A320. 

The consequence of Boeing's changes to the 737; a new tail cone, widespread structural re-gauging, engine development and a raised nose gear make the Max a manageable, yet expensive (which Boeing disputes), undertaking, concluded Bernstein Research in a report earlier this week. But the result, as illustrated by Norwegian's A320neo order, may also be an unlocked 737 market for Airbus and Boeing to fight over.

Photo Credit Boeing & Airbus
AA-777-300ER-Archway.jpg
With its 1,000th unit coming down the line for Emirates, Boeing's 777 continues to evolve from its earliest incarnations. The latest interior catalog offerings, now selected by American Airlines, include a 787 and 737-style Sky Interior LED-lit entryway for its 777-300ERs, which enter the fleet in December. Long-time Boeing interior design firm Teague was believed to have been working on this feature for a while now.

The features of its 777 were hinted about last year when, just days after its bankruptcy filing, the carrier announced what would be aboard its new twin. 
Arranged in a three-class cabin configuration, the new 777-300ER will provide the airline with more passenger and cargo capacity than any other aircraft in its fleet today. Customers will be welcomed into the aircraft by unique mood lighting. American will be the first carrier to use a dramatic archway and ceiling treatment on the 777-300 to create a feeling of spaciousness.
At that point, American's news release did not include any images or additional details about the interior. Whether the Sky Interior-inspired lighting will run the length of the 777 isn't clear from the photos release by the airline. Further, the carrier appears to be an early customer for the formerly branded Panasonic Fusion in-flight entertainment system, now known as the Integrated Smart Monitor, a photo of which is below the fold.

Additional photos of its business and first class seating are available on American's Facebook page.

UPDATE 3:46 PM ET: While Boeing and American have focused on upgrades to evolve the 777's interior, the company has been finding ways to improve the environmental efficiency of building and delivering each aircraft. While environmental efficiency is the banner under which 10 improvements have been made to the manufacturing process, the bottom line is how to reduce the cost to build each 777 through continuously improving and optimizing its processes.


Photo Credit American Airlines
All Nippon Airways Boeing 787 Dreamliner JA801A ZA101

Over the next two weeks, the 787 will add four new destinations, including its first international long-haul route, aided by a growing number of deliveries from Boeing.

The 787's first two and a half months in service have provided a light trial with a only four daily flights with two aircraft and a combined 325min of flying between the Haneda Airport in the Japanese capital and Hiroshima and Okayama. Those light operations have yielded a 96.3% dispatch reliability, compared to 96.5% for ANA's total operations. 

The only deviation of note during the first months of service was the November 6 incident in which the landing gear failed to deploy on the first attempt while on approach to Okayama.

As Boeing and ANA have closely tended to the first two 787s, the expansion of 787 services will provide the aircraft's first major test.

UPDATE 4:42 PM ET:PianoX performance analysis of the deployment the 787 on these regional routes indicates that the inherent nature of the aircraft's long-range configuration means ANA is far from yielding the benefits of Boeing's touted 20% improvement in fuel efficiency over the 767.
The B787-8 is used by ANA in domestic and regional service over distances of 300 to 1200 nm (HND-OKJ, HND-PEK). Such usage is ill-matched to intrinsic design-sizing considerations for this aircraft. For example, when carrying 25 tonnes over 1000 nm the B787-8 burns approximately 10.6 tonnes of fuel (and more for early deliveries with acknowledged performance shortfalls). In contrast, a B757-300W is better sized to carry the same payload over the same distance, burning merely 8.6 tonnes despite its senescence, albeit at economy-class comfort levels (no deterioration, best engine option). The B767-300ERW burns 10.3 tonnes under the same circumstances. The factual significance and operational reality of such (counter-expectational) mission-specific fuel burns can appear negated or reversed through contrived definitions of efficiency metrics based on point conditions. 
Further, the analysis suggests that on the coming long-range route to Frankfurt, ANA will only yield a 1.2% fuel burn advantage with the 787 compared to a new 767-300ER with winglets.

The coming expansion is aided by recent deliveries to the airline, including the December 30 handover of Airplane 31, the first 158-seat long-haul configured aircraft and the January 12 delivery of the fourth, Airplane 41. The fifth delivery, Airplane 9, likely taking place today, says a program source, will expand the 264-seat regionally configured fleet to four aircraft. 
The airline will begin its first international service between Haneda and Beijing on 14 January, followed by services on 17 and 18 January and its first long-haul flight between Tokyo Narita airport and Frankfurt, Germany on 21 January.

Domestic operations are set to expand on the Okayama and Hiroshima routes on 13 January, moving from one to two flights per day.

ANA will begin Haneda flights to Yamaguchi Ube and Itami (Osaka) from 23 January.

After the commencement of its 2012 fiscal year on 1 April, ANA will add Haneda to Matuyama and Narita to Seattle and San Jose, California.
The Beijing route will be initially operated with a international long-haul configuration on January 14, 17 and 18 before moving to the Frankfurt flight, which will be flown daily with 787 as of March 1, alternating between 777-200ER and 787 service from January 21 after delivery delays in November and December slowed the introduction.
SWA-737family-Stack.jpg
Its launch customer now in hand and its production system taking shape, Boeing's future 737 Max development resembles its narrowbody programmes of its past. The airframer has backed up its commitment for a minimum-change aircraft with stakeholders who rely on the continuity of the aircraft's design.

Southwest Airlines, launch customer for the 737-300, -500 and -700, announced the 737 Max's first firm order on 13 December, adding 208 new narrowbodies to its backlog, including 150 re-engined aircraft.

The order is valued at $19 billion, though Southwest expects to spend on average $1.2 billion on capital expenditure each year between 2012 and 2022.

Boeing hopes to minimize the changes between the Next Generation 737 and the 737 Max preserving both the common pilot type rating and grandfathered US Federal Aviation Administration certification.

Southwest's launch order for the 737 Max will guide the aircraft's development, including which variant is built and tested first. So far, it appears the airline will forego the smaller -7 and put the -8 on that path to be Max One, though Boeing says: "Southwest has the flexibility to choose from 737-7s and 737-8s so it's their decision on which will be first."

In its role as launch customer, Southwest - a staunch advocate of minimum change technologies to optimise products and innovate its operational processes - will guide the development of the new 737 variant, which includes the re-engined 737-7, -8 and -9.

Though the Southwest of 2011 isn't the Southwest of 1993 that launched the Next Generation 737 family or the 737 Classic in 1981 and has evolved from its previous habits that made it the largest domestic carrier in the US. It's slow and methodical growth has been its hallmark, though the US low-cost carrier has grown through a major acquisition, with the purchase of AirTran Airways and it has moved toward larger aircraft as it pushes into the the country's most tightly controlled airports to see a greater return on its investment.

That strategic outlook and its transformation to a faster growing company, explains the work of London School of Economics academic Dr. Theodore Piepenbrock, has been at the root of Southwest's market dominance and overall cost advantage among the US domestic carriers.

"We tried to stay with a commonality theme," says Brian Hirshman, Southwest senior vice president of technical operations of the company's fleet philosophy. "Of course, we wanted to improve upon efficiency and productivity around the airplane, so we've been working closely with Boeing and it's every much an iterative process. Our intention is to play a very important part in the development of the airplane right up through entry into service."

The December 7 ratification of the new four-year International Machinists and Aerospace Workers contract made official Boeing's selection of its Renton, Washington final assembly line as the new home for the 737 Max, preserving an industrial footprint that has evolved from its earliest incarnations as a slant production system in 1970 after being consolidated with the 707 and 727 to today's ultra-efficient moving assembly line.

The first production 737 Max will be delivered to Southwest in the fourth quarter 2017, the first of four the airline expects to receive that year.

After the troubled development of the now certified 787-8, 747-8F and 747-8I, Boeing will advance into the initial development work for the 737 Max establishing final configuration in mid-2013.

Though significant unknowns remain about the 737 MAX, John Hamilton 737 chief programme engineer says: "The configuration is well enough known that Southwest and Boeing had confidence going forward with the deal at this time."

Boeing's strategic tendency toward big jumps in technology on its recent products will likely be tempered by Southwest's conservatism and strategic philosophy that has guided the airframer's last two incremental 737 variant families.

Southwest has adopted a conservative expectation for the 737 Max, touting a 10-11% fuel burn improvement between the 737-800, which will arrive in its fleet in 2012, and the 737-8, one percentage point lower than the 10-12% figure touted by Boeing.

"We look forward to working with Southwest over the next five or six years to make sure it is the right airplane for Southwest and we will deliver the real thing - I guarantee you - on schedule and on spec and you will continue to have the best airplane in the marketplace," says Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh.

Despite the addition of a strengthened airframe, new tail cone, raised nose landing gear and fly-by-wire spoilers, the external configuration will still remain largely familiar to that of the previous 737s, with the larger 173cm (68in) CFM International Leap-1B engine expected to deliver the overwhelming block of the aircraft's fuel burn improvement.

CFM, for now, isn't yet sharing much detail about its "custom core" that power Max.

"All I can tell you is the core for the Leap-1B is optimised for the Leap-1B engine," says Chaker Chahrour CFM executive vice president, "The engine itself is optimised to deliver the best performance on that airplane and the core is optimised to be compatible with that engine."

Photo Credit Boeing, FlyingJ31 & Tbird-Boston
Boeing Unveils First 787 to Enter Service for Japan Airlines

Boeing rolled out the first 787 to be delivered to Japan Airlines, now painted in its updated livery. The aircraft, whose final registration is currently unknown - believed to be Airplane 23 - will be handed over to JAL early next year following certification of the GEnx-1B-powered 787. JAL is set to be launch customer for the 787 pairing with GEnx engines, though this had only become explicitly detailed in recent weeks in comments by Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh. 

Air India's first 787, a GEnx-powered aircraft, had initially been planned for delivery late this year, though final GEnx-1B testing on a production airframe, Airplane 35, had been delayed as the aircraft wasn't ready to fly. At last plan, Airplane 35 was set to fly during the middle of this month.

Photo Credit Boeing
SWA-737-8_560.jpg
For the fourth time in Boeing history, Southwest Airlines will be launch customer for a 737 variant, placing an order for 150 737 Max aircraft and an additional 58 Next Generation 737s.

The commitment valued at $19 billion, is the largest firm order in Boeing's history in both volume and dollar value, besting November's $18 billion Emirates 777-300ER order for 50 aircraft.

Southwest will take its first delivery, which looks to be a 737-8, starting in 2017.

Boeing yesterday established its list prices for the 737 Max family, ranging from $77.7 million for the 737-7, $95.2 million for the -8 and $101.7 million for the -9.

Southwest previously served as launch customer for the 737-300 in 1981, the 737-500 in 1987 and the 737-700 in 1993.

The order raises Boeing's firm order and commitment total to more than 900 aircraft from 13 customers. 

UPDATE 3:23 PM ET: I've authored four articles exploring different aspects of the 737 Max launch order:

Southwest Airlines' launch order for the 737 Max will guide the aircraft's development, including which variant is built and tested first.

Citing fleet commonality and aircraft performance, Southwest Airlines selected the 737 Max over the A320neo, said the airline's technical and operations leaders.

Southwest Airlines is embarking on a decade of fleet modernisation after its decision to become the launch customer for the Boeing 737 Max.

Boeing now holds firm orders and commitments for 948 737 Max aircraft from 13 customers, and expects that figure to climb to as high as 1,500 by the end of 2012, said the company's top executive.

Photo Credit Boeing

American Airlines Boeing 737-800 N869NN

After months of speculation about its seemingly impending bankruptcy, American Airlines officially filed Chapter 11 protection this morning to restructure its business. The filing comes after years of network issues, hemorrhaging cash and labor disputes, as well as ordering massive amounts of aircraft - perhaps more than any other airline in the world.

According to Boeing and the airline's recent US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, American Airlines holds firm orders for a total of 15 777 aircraft, split between 9 777-300ERs and 6 777-200ERs, as well as orders for 143 outstanding 737-800s.

Of its record 460 aircraft order in July, only the 100 737-800s have been officially added to Boeing's backlog, part of that 143 narrowbodies still to deliver.  In the near-term the consensus thus far points to the bankruptcy hastening the departure of the MD-80s from American's fleet. 

UPDATE: Airbus says the 130 current generation A319 and A321 aircraft that were a part of the July order are now a part of its backlog as firm orders.

American Airlines Senior Vice President Craig Kreeger says of the record aircraft buy: "That order is rock solid. Airbus and Boeing will give us the youngest fleet in the industry within a few years ... and that remains an important part of our strategy."

Though even with that assurance, longer-term questions remain about the massive number of unfirmed orders waiting to be put on Airbus and Boeing's books, all of which are dependent on the process of American's restructuring.

Boeing issued the following statement earlier today:
We anticipate as part of American's reorganization that new, fuel-efficient airplanes will be a key part of their ongoing success, so we expect these Boeing airplanes to be a part of it.

We have seen a number of our customers go through the bankruptcy process and successfully reorganize. We hope it will be an opportunity for American to do the same and emerge stronger from the process.

When we entered into our recent agreements with American, we were confident that these assets at issue will be core to their operation in almost any scenario. We have no reason to doubt that today.
Of its orders that are not yet firm, American holds 130 A320neos and 100 737 Max aircraft. Further, American has unfirmed orders from Boeing for 42 787-9s, which are dependent on approval of a new agreement with its pilots. The airline also has purchase rights and options for 365 more A320 family aircraft, 40 737-800s and 60 737 Maxs, and 58 787-9s

All told, American Airlines holds firm, unfirmed commitments, options and purchase rights for 1081 aircraft, 795 of which currently stand as commitments to Boeing and Airbus.
Emirates Boeing 777-300ER A6-ECZ

Many say that Emirates is to the 777 as Southwest is to the 737 and Sunday's order for 50 more 777-300ER aircraft cemented that status further. The order, the largest in Boeing's history, is worth up to $26 billion when factoring in the 20 additional options, though the company's largest customers receive heavy discounts for their purchases.

Emirates is known for using the Dubai Air Show for its splash orders, spending an estimated $34.2 billion (at list prices) for 70 Airbus A350s, 11 A380s and 12 777-300ERs in 2007.

With 95 777s in operation today and another 41 777-300ERs on order, Emirates has accounted for 9.7% of the program's total deliveries since 1995. That share will grow to 10.2% in March 2012 when the airline takes delivery of the 1,000th 777, the airline's 102nd of the type. When factoring in the 50 new orders, Emirates is responsible for 24% of the 777's backlog, which stands today at 375.

Emirates also holds the largest share of the A380 backlog at 41%, 73 on order, and the second largest for the A350 at 12.3% with 70 on the books.

To look at the historical ordering patterns of Boeing's largest narrowbody customer, Southwest behaves similarly to the aircraft-maker's largest widebody customer. On an backlog-to-backlog comparison, the 92 outstanding orders held by Southwest represents 4.2% of Boeing's future 737 deliveries.

According to its orders and delivery website, Southwest has placed direct orders with Boeing for 676 737s (of all generations). Though the most frequently occurring order quantity may surprise: Three. Yes, in that total there are huge blocks of orders for 63, 59 and 94 aircraft, but Southwest's Red DNA - its steady methodical growth - has defined its time as a Boeing customer. 

Similarly, even with Sunday's mega-order for 50 777s, Emirates' direct buying behavior matches Southwest's, with a median order total of just 11 777 aircraft at a time since 1992.

With their massive stakes in the future of the Boeing backlog, both customers have already laid out their respective capacity bridges to the company's future products. The launched and yet-to-be-defined 737 Max and yet-to-be-launched but more defined 777-9X have met different reactions by the airframer's biggest customers.

The two airlines diverge when it comes to providing public input for Boeing's new development programs. Former Southwest CEO Herb Kelleher's comments to Aviation Week on the eve of the surprise American Airlines 737 re-engining decision was largely seen as the subtle cue for the future of the narrowbody which has forever been the centerpiece of the low-cost carrier's fleet. 

Emirates' propensity for public commentary with its aircraft suppliers' product strategies are well documented. President Tim Clark's displeasure with the latest iteration of the A350-1000 and its advice to Boeing about the future of the 777-9X, the composite winged 777-300ER successor, are hallmarks of its methods of persuasion. 

The Dubai-based carrier's own relationship with Boeing remains fundamentally different from Southwest's. Despite the mega order and the deep involvement in the -9X's development, 

Applying a Red or Blue label to Emirates isn't as straightforward as it seems. While Emirates could be called Red, with its tightly integrated growth strategy with the Emirate of Dubai, it exists in a developing (immature) market, where innovating its products rather than processes yields a high return. For its relationship with Boeing and Airbus, the relationship is zero-sum: "All I have to do is pick up the phone and order more Boeing 777s," Clark warned Airbus in 2010 regarding delays to the A350

Though Emirates eagerness to serve as launch customer for the -9X stands in contrast to Southwest's reservation of judgement over the 737 Max: "We are just now being briefed on what it does, what it doesn't do, and it's just too early to give you an answer on either our evaluation of that or what we might do," said Southwest CEO Gary Kelly on the airline's third quarter 2011 earnings call.

For Boeing, there remains a marked difference between the inception of the 737 Max and the 777-9X and how the company has developed each product. Both are intended to be incremental evolutions of today's products, with an estimated three years between them, but how each have come about with the input of the airframer's largest customers could not be more different.

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