Boeing: December 2008 Archives

On this, the final day of 2008, and the 590th since final assembly began on ZA001, the first 787 Dreamliner is preparing to leave Building 40-26 in Everett to begin a four month trek to the sky.

Boeing's 787 Dreamliner program has had five first flight dates set, but a timeline for key program milestones has now emerged that outlines a grueling testing gauntlet to first flight in late April, sources tell FlightBlogger.

Starting on the evening of January 2nd, Dreamliner One will depart its home in Building 40-26 and make the short trip to an open slot on the 767 line in Building 40-24. ZA001 will occupy the spot currently held by ZY998, the fatigue airframe, which will be moved to the flight line prior to the start of fatigue testing.

ZA001 has been back on its own three legs since December 9 when the right engine was reinstalled, followed by the left engine the following day. The recently mounted twin Rolls-Royce Trent 1000s are new-build engines, not the ones originally re-hung earlier this year, having come off the line in September 2008.

As 2008 closes, Boeing has completed the incorporation of the center wing box and tank modifications, which set back the program significantly earlier this year. The modifications were conducted concurrently with the extensive fastener replacement operation.

ZA001 is expected to spend about a month inside 40-24 wrapping up final assembly operations and fastener fixes that have dominated the work on the aircraft recently.

Dreamliner One will undergo three gauntlet test phases that will eventually culminate in first flight by late April.

During the factory gauntlet, expected to begin in early February, the fight-test team will examine the onboard systems to verify their performance is as expected.

An industry source familiar with preparations for Dreamliner One's first flight says that Boeing has committed additional manpower resources to software suppliers to meet the new springtime schedule.

Following the factory gauntlet, ZA001 will undergo its aqueous wash in mid-February to clean the fuel tanks to remove contaminants like carbon dust and metal shavings, a key indicator of aircraft wing completion.

After the wash is complete four days later, ZA001 will return to the paint shop across the Boeing Freeway to receive a fresh coat of paint.
 
Around this same time, according to a report by ATW, fastener work on ZA002 will be completed, potentially signaling its readiness for ground vibration testing to validate aero-elastic computer models that will give ZA001 a green-light for its maiden voyage.

By the final week of March, ZA001 should be on the flight line in time for the intermediate gauntlet to begin. The 2nd gauntlet phase will see Dreamliner One's engines started for the first time to provide electrical power to the aircraft. This first engine test will mark the first time a commercial airliner has been started using bleedless engine architecture.

The final gauntlet will see Dreamliner One's systems running for eight days straight for extensive testing prior to moving under its own power for the first time.

Dreamliner Five Paced By Fasteners

With the fourth assembly position vacated in Building 40-26, Dreamliners Two, Three and Four will advance one position opening the body join station for Dreamliner Five. Only the three major fuselage structural sections are yet to be delivered for Dreamliner Five. The aft fuselage will likely be delivered to Everett from Vought during the first half of January.

Vought has been operating with a skeleton crew after it largely shutdown in November. Work at the Charleston, SC facility has focused entirely on preparing the aft fuselages of Dreamliners Five and Six for delivery.

Paced by fastener replacement, the Global Aeronautica integrated center fuselage section, remains in Charleston. In some cases, excessive fastener over sizing has forced the replacement of key titanium parts that need to be installed prior to delivery, says a Charleston-based source familiar with the issue.

As Boeing looks ahead to 2009 and the start of the 787 flight test program, progress on Dreamliners Two and Five are crucial for certification. Dreamliner Two will provide replicability of Dreamliner One's performance data and Dreamliner Five will kick off the certification effort of the General Electric GEnx powered 787s.

The good news is that the Boeing's 787 maintenance plan has been approved by the FAA, which is a major step towards gaining overall certification for the Dreamliner. The bad news is that Air New Zealand won't be able to put it into action with its first 787-9 until early 2013, a year later than last informed and greater than two years from originally promised.

"Boeing confirmed yesterday a further 12-month delay could be expected with the first 787-9 aircraft to be delivered to Air New Zealand in the first quarter of 2013," the carrier said in a statement.

Air New Zealand's first 787-9, the 135th 787 to come out of Everett, was originally expected in January 2012, but is now set for early 2013. The twin 787-9 flight test aircraft (88 & 93) will likely take to the sky about six to eight months ahead of the first delivery to Air New Zealand.

The December - January issue of Aviation and the Environment features a look at what is now being dubbed the 737 Re-Generation, a half generation leap for Boeing's venerable narrowbody with suite of new enhancements.

"We can't wait 10 years [for fuel burn improvements]," says Mike van der Ven, executive vice president for Southwest Airlines. "I'm not comfortable waiting a decade for an improved engine. We're very interested in a manufacturer improving engine economics." 

This suggests Southwest might be interested in a geared turbofan-powered airplane, although Van der Ven also notes that the LEAP-X holds great promise, and will be "very competitive" with the PW1000G.

"From an operator's perspective, you could have a firm choice by 2013 with 10 per cent improvements, and that's meaningful," he says. 2013 is the planned EIS for Pratt & Whitney's PurePower 1000G engine on smaller jets being developed, but within the timeframe the company could develop one for the 737.

All of the planning for 737 improvements are paced by two key factors. The first, is the availability of engineering resources which are currently focused on the 787 and 747-8 programs. The second, and perhaps more importantly, is what Airbus chooses to do with its A320 Enhanced as the European airframer flight tests blended winglets and the PW1000G under the wing of an A340.

Ben Sandilands, Australian aerospace reporter and author of Plane Talking, got an official statement from Boeing on the 787 wing delamination claim which was featured (and debunked) over the weekend. Apparently, when Ben asked Boeing about the claim, he was "repeatedly asked to use Ostrower's subsequent determination of the rumor as having no substance in lieu of a Boeing statement."

Here's what Boeing had to say:

Our tests continue to confirm that the composite construction of the 787, including the wing, is sound. The 787, like every commercial jetliner, is going through a rigorous series of tests to verify the safety and certificability of its structure, systems and operations. The FAA will review the results of this compliance activity prior to certifying the airplane for commercial use.

With the global economy heading south, the Chinese Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) says it wants airlines in China to delay or cancel delivery of aircraft in 2009.

UPDATE 1:10 PM 12/14: After consultation with various sources, I've determined this rumor can be declared false. Thanks to all who assisted in determining the veracity of this claim. I understand why some might've been upset that I introduced this idea in a public forum, but it helped to answer this question. Thanks, Jon.

Yesteday, Boeing cited two causes to explain the latest 787 delay:

The new schedule reflects the impact of disruption caused by the recent Machinists' strike along with the requirement to replace certain fasteners in early production airplanes.

I'm not one for rumors, but I feel as though the following comment left on the Seattle PI blog on December 12 deserves some attention:

Posted by unregistered user at 12/12/08 12:49 p.m.

The real reason for the delay is we've found that the carbon composite wings on the static test specimen is delaminating and therefore the flight test airplanes need NDT testing after ripping all the systems out. This is an elementary failure in structural design.

Perhaps this is a baseless claim, but it's worth noting, this is the 3rd time today I've heard the D-word (delaminating) as it relates to part of the 787 structure. The first time came prior to this comment on the Seattle PI blog and then again later this evening from another source.

If this claim of delamination is categorically false, then it should be laid to rest where it stands.

It's been a long time since I've crowd-sourced information, but if there is an explanation about this delamination claim on ZY997 one way or another, please contact me at flightblogger (at) gmail (dot) com.

Boeing has surpassed the 900 order mark for its Boeing 787 Dreamliner program, the company says.

Major news on top of the revised 787 schedule announcement today: 

Boeing Announces Leadership Moves; Restructures Commercial Airplanes Organizations
SEATTLE, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) today announced a series of executive leadership changes and a restructuring within Boeing Commercial Airplanes to better align resources across its development and production programs and strengthen oversight of its global supply chain.

Boeing Schedules 787 Dreamliner First Flight for Second Quarter 2009; First Delivery for First Quarter 2010
EVERETT, Wash., Dec. 11, 2008 -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] today announced an updated schedule for its all-new 787 Dreamliner program that moves the commercial jet's first flight into the second quarter of 2009 and first delivery into the first quarter of 2010. The new schedule reflects the impact of disruption caused by the recent Machinists' strike along with the requirement to replace certain fasteners in early production airplanes.

There's speculation abound about the timing of the announcement of the latest 787 delay. Looks like it's likely to come before the week is out. I've been hearing similar buzz as well.

James Wallace - Seattle PI:

Meanwhile, I'm hearing from airline and industry sources that Boeing may announce as soon as Thursday the expected latest delay for the 787 program, which could be another six months.

Glenn Farley - KING5

The company won't confirm the delay, but the buzz with the airlines is that an official announcement will come by Friday, if not sooner.

Sources close to some of the airlines who are buying the new 787 Dreamliner have been getting warnings since Monday that Boeing is close to announcing a delay of possibly six months.

Wall Street Journal says:

Boeing Co. is considering pushing back the first deliveries of its flagship 787 Dreamliner by at least six more months to account for the recent strike by union machinists, as well as other snags in getting the troubled jetliner airborne.

According to people familiar with the situation, Boeing officials are expected to announce later this month that the first deliveries of the fuel-efficient jet might not occur until as late as summer 2010, more than two years after the jet was originally scheduled to enter service.

In recent days, these people said, Boeing officials have been meeting with suppliers and partners on the jet program in an effort to get their arms around a number of challenges that have sprung up in part because of the volume of work that Boeing outsourced on the program.

Boeing says in response:

We are currently conducting an assessment of the 787 program schedule. We will communicate it when it is complete. We do not have the exact timing yet on when that communication will occur.

The Journal has a knack for serving as a 'leading indicator' to an official BCA announcement..

My biggest take away on the Airbus dossier is that the European company sees the Boeing 787-9 as the killer app. Rarely, has the first generation iteration of a Boeing jetliner been delivered in great volume.

The 727-100, 737-100, 747-100, 767-200 and 777-200 did not define their respective programs. With the exception of the 757-200, first generation airliners aren't largely produced.

Take the 767-300ER for example. That aircraft accounts for more than half of the 950+ 767 deliveries during the production run. The 767-200ER runs a distant second with 121 deliveries. The -300ER entered service in 1988, six years after the first 767-200 delivery.

Boeing sold the 787-8 as 2nd/3rd generation mature technology (a la 777-300ER) in a 1st generation package, which explains its sales success. Full technological maturity by EIS, it's a very attractive offer. The reality is that 1st generation technology is still 1st generation and Boeing has already said that the 787-9 will be the biggest recipient of Boeing's 787 lessons learnt.

With Boeing, Airbus, Embraer and Bombardier all forecasting an up-gauge in the overall size of aircraft, the 787-9 with more seats, will likely be the beneficiary of this trend for Boeing. The 900 orders booked currently split largely for the 787-8, though customers contractually have the option to switch variants.

I'm willing to bet that the 787 orderbook balance will dash to the nine.

Late last night on the east coast the membership of SPEEA approved a new four-year contract by a vote of 69%. The ratification of the new contract closes a tumultuous chapter that has dominated the second half of 2008 for Boeing. The very recent memory of the pain incurred by Boeing, the IAM and their membership undoubtedly informed the negotiations with SPEEA. Both sides involved in negotiations used the IAM experience to their respective advantages to garner a amicable contract that serves both the needs of management and the engineer.

It's no secret that both sides postured and positioned for an advantage in the public eye, often butting heads rhetorically, but at the end of the day a solution was found. Let's hope the positive outcome serves as a future model and a step forward in labor/management relations for Boeing and its Unions.