Recently in Bombardier Category

DUBAI -- Bombardier appears to be closing in on a new ultra long-range business jet to rival Gulfstream's G650 and replace the company's Global Express XRS.

The new clean-sheet project, says one source familiar with the program, is code named the M170.

Bombardier declined to comment if the M170 was, in fact, the company's new ultra long-range business jet, however the a recent increase in listings in support of a non-descriptive "M170 program" have begun appearing on Canadian job websites.

In response to an inquiry about the M170 designation, the company chose only to say, "We are involved in a number of R&D projects."

A little over a week ago, my colleague Mary Kirby and I had a chance to join several industry journalists in an interview with Gary Scott, president of Bombardier commercial aircraft programs.

The small gathering was part of a kickoff to a roadshow Bombardier has begun to market its new narrow-body CSeries aircraft to airlines and lessors. The first stop was New York city to be followed by stops in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

Our hour-long conversation covered an enormous amount of ground on the future of the CSeries. After being twice burned with the 787 and A380, Scott says that program execution is the number one concern of airlines looking to buy into a new aircraft.

Scott, for the first time, outlined the five-aircraft flight test program that Bombardier has planned for the 100 to 125-seat CS100 which has a planned 2013 EIS. After flight test, all the aircraft, Scott says, will be offered up for sale and likely sold with a discount following refurbishment.

He also discussed emerging competition from China, Brazil and Japan and how a Comac selection of the GTF for the C919 would be an endorsement of the CSeries. Scott also spoke candidly about the Trans States MRJ order which neither Bombardier nor Embraer was invited to bid on.

Bombardier has put a lot of energy into designing the cabin of the CSeries which will include a five-abreast layout and a 1-inch wider middle seat. The overhead bins, Scott says, will enable passengers to carry on more luggage, avoiding baggage fees and reducing ramp baggage loading times for aircraft. The company is also looking distantly down the road to a time when the passenger interior is removed and fitted in VIP configuration to create a new BBJ, or Bombardier Business Jet.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the composite wing of the CSeries was a topic of conversation. Rather than laying down composite tape for the top and bottom wingskins, Bombardier will use resin transfer injection to create the CFRP panels at the company's Belfast unit. The new $520 million facility represents the largest investment in the history of Northern Ireland.

Scott says that Bombardier went back and took a long, hard look at the CSeries wing design after Boeing announced the side-of-body issue with the 787 wing, but ultimately made no changes to its own design as a result. In addition, Scott reaffirmed that both the CS100 and CS300 would have a common 115 foot 1 inch (35.1m) wing design even though the wing is sized for the larger CS300.

Scott's comments came after I asked him whether or not the CS100 was carrying around too much extra weight as a result of the larger wing in comparison to the Embraer E-195. The Brazilian airframer says the CS100 only offers a 2% advantage in cash operating costs over the E-195.

"Yes, we have a bigger wing, but it's optimized for our family and putting a larger wing on does add weight, no doubt about it. Obviously we've offset that with the new materials, as well as the fly-by-wire. That gives us the range that our customers want and that also gives us performance. The CS100 can take off in less than 5,000 feet of runway. It can fly in an out of London City it also can fly in and out of difficult airports...whether it's Jackson Hole or Western China. The Embraer [E-195] can't do any of that, it needs over 7,000 feet of runway to take off. The bigger wing means you can actually carry payload, so at high/hot conditions like in Denver, I'm not sure how many people the E-195 can carry, but it's not many, so they have to start dumping payload in a hurry if they want to fly very far. So the bigger wing...is intended to solve all of those different issues."

Embraer's formal response to Mr. Scott's comments on the E-195:

"While Embraer is not in a position to comment on the strategic positioning its competitors are aiming with their own projects, it is important to note that over  600 Embraer E-Jets have already been delivered to 45 airlines operating in five continents, providing significant benefits in terms of performance, economics and passenger comfort.

E-Jets are flying right now - in 2009,  from challenging airports like Denver and London City, stretching the right-sizing benefit to cities that otherwise could not be served as efficiently and environmentally friendly."

Mr. al-Baker of Qatar Airways has become a human starting gun of sorts for industry discussion about re-engining the 737 and A320. His airline has been in (deadlocked) negotiations with Bombardier about the CSeries, while the prospect of such an order has provided Mr. al-Baker with a springboard to push the idea of a re-engined A320 as a potentially superior aircraft to the 120 to 149-seat CS300. Not to be out done, Boeing's Randy Tinseth is openly discussing the prospect of a re-engined 737, addressing it as technically possible, but with strategic considerations at the forefront.

Pratt & Whitney, widely believed to be a lead contender for the engine selection for the A320 and/or 737, has been actively pushing its PW1000G geared turbofan engine, which has already been through flight testing underneath the wing of an Airbus A340-600.

On the other end, the 100 to 125-seat CS100 has quietly prompted Embraer to evaluate exactly how the new narrowbody would stack up against its largest 100-seat E-195. Tucked away on page 32 of Air Insight's must read report on the future of commercial aerospace programs in Brazil, Canada, China and Japan and Russia, the Brazilian airframer delivered a noteworthy assessment of the CS100.

The real threat [to Embraer] comes from Bombardier. A proven competitor, Bombardier is taken seriously. However, Embraer points out that the CSeries wing is optimized for the larger CS300. That means the CS100 has a larger wing than needed, and as a result the CS100 will weigh ~5,000kg more than its E-195. Even with the [Pratt & Whitney PW1000G] geared fan, Embraer expects to see the CS100 only offer a 2% fuel burn advantage over the E‐195. Given that the CS100 is a new design with a program settling‐in period, Embraer believes it has some time before it needs to react to the new competition. Emphasis Added

Boeing and Airbus always promised a robust response to CSeries. Their turf is well established and with the prospect of a significant loss of market share (read: cash flow) Boeing and Airbus will fight new entrants tooth and nail. For Embraer, their assessment leaves the door open to significant changes to the E-Jet family. Would a next generation E-Jet leap frog a CS100 in the 100-seat segment? No matter how you fold it, CSeries represents a competitive threat to Embraer, Boeing and Airbus and we've only just begun to see the response.

It's odd to begin a discussion about an industry upswing days after Boeing joined Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer in cutting aircraft production amid an "unprecedented" downturn. All are struggling and airlines and lessors are making it clear that battening down the hatches and shrinking capacity, not growing it, is the safest course through the storm.

Holding off on orders is a safe bet for the worlds airlines, but with 2757 orders in 2007 and over 1400 last year, it appears airlines are just tapped out more than anything. Now they wait for their aircraft to be built. Airbus and Boeing can point to their strong backlogs as evidence of the order frenzy.

Both Airbus and Boeing can claim various superlatives with the launch of 787 and A350. The job for both is getting them fully designed, built, flown, certified and delivered. Though, 787 in some ways is holding itself and its chief competitor in limbo right now.

Airbus is waiting to see what happens with 787 before they firm up A350 details while Boeing waits on the A350 before figuring out what to do with a 777 refresh. All the while, engineering resources are not committed to 737/A320 replacements, pushing entry into service past 2020.

Though, something curious happened this past quarter that deserves recognition. Bombardier earned more orders for CSeries (50) than Boeing (22) and Airbus (23) did in combined gross orders. If you make it net orders, the total between the two titans is only four.

Yes, both firm orders for CSeries were expected last year, yet even with the onset of the recession, they still materialized. Though, the demand for a new narrowbody is there, with Southwest getting antsy, Air France/KLM pining for a replacement to their A320/737s, US Airways ready for a 757 successor and SAS and Air Canada jumping in as well to discuss fleet replacement. That's five airline in the last 10 days alone.

Add those five customers to American and United calling for replacements from Airbus and Boeing and you're talking about some of the largest narrowbody customers in the world.

Though, Boeing keenly understands the virtue of launching an aircraft in a downmarket, a strategy that Bombardier and Embraer are taking to heart. Both 777 and 787 were forged out of the recessions of the early 90s and post-9/11, respectively.

By most estimates, the next upswing for the global economy should be in full effect by 2013, right when CSeries will be coming online. For Airbus and Boeing, A320 and 737 will still be prominently in the picture. Is a mid-life refresh enough to hold the market until 2020?

Embraer, which has already said they wouldn't be pressured into the larger narrowbody market, is laying the groundwork for future plans. Embraer President and CEO Frederico Fleury Curado said the manufacturer will make a decision in the next 18-24 months regarding entry into the 150-seat market, going head-to-head-to-head-to-head with Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing.

The case against CSeries made by Airbus and Boeing centers on the abandonment of commonality and airplane support long built up by a combined 70+ years in the narrowbody market and the extended presence of A320/737 family aircraft in airline fleets.

Though, for Embraer, Air France, KLM, Air Canada, US Airways and United all operate E-Jets, many in mainline service, would their experience here nullify that argument?

While Boeing and Airbus are laser focused on the long-range twin market, their smaller Canadian and Brazilian counterparts are moving in to fill the void. Though, not long too long ago Boeing was planning for a 2012-2015 entry into service for its narrowbody replacement. Yet, for Airbus and Boeing, CSeries is still perceived as a fly buzzing around the head of the giants.

"The only way airlines can get that leverage back is if the Bombardier CSeries becomes a big success," says Richard Aboulafia.

For Boeing and Airbus, what's the tipping point? That psychological and strategic tripwire that signals a genuine threat to their duopoly? Malcolm Gladwell might say 150 orders. What about a certain blue-chip customer putting a stamp of approval on a new aircraft type?

Boeing and Airbus have become accustomed to looking to their left and right to see the competitive landscape. What about a glance in the rear view mirror?

On Wednesday, I posted a picture from Bombardier of the CSeries flight deck running the Rockwell Collins Pro Line Fusion system. Many of you gently informed me that the rendering was from last year, so I went in search of a more recent version. Rockwell Collins was kind enough to supply me with an updated version of the CSeries flight deck, which is pictured above.

Image credit Rockwell Collins

In what is the largest commercial aircraft order of 2009, Lufthansa firmed up an order for 30 CSeries aircraft plus 30 additional options for subsidiary Swiss International Air Lines.

Bombardier's first firm CSeries order comes after Lufthansa signed a letter of interest in July 2008 (live blog) at the Farnborough Air Show. Even though Lufthansa is the first airline to place a firm order for the CSeries, Swiss will not serve as the aircraft type's first operator.

The 110-seat CS100 aircraft will replace 20 Swiss BAe Avro RJ-100ER aircraft beginning in 2014 and configured with 115 seats. Entry into service of the CS100, which is powered by two Pratt & Whitney PurePower PW1000G engines, is scheduled for 2013. The engine selection was first announced on this blog at the Dubai Air Show in November 2007.

The order marks a bright spot in an otherwise troubled 2009 commercial aerospace market that has seen continued cuts in capacity, falling passenger and cargo traffic, as well as numerous aircraft order cancellations and deferrals.

The boost for the program comes a day after Qatar Airways chief executive Akbar Al Baker said, "[A CSeries order is in the freezer because we require certain conditions from Bombardier for us to consider the aircraft, for which they are not capitulating. So I think we'll have to forget about it if [Bombardier does] not respond."

Al Baker adds that his concerns cover "the whole deal", including both price and specifications of the aircraft. "If they oblige, maybe we will reconsider our decision," he adds.

Qatar Airways is interested in purchasing the 130-seat CS300 aircraft, the second CSeries variant, for regional operations out of its Doha hub.

The next step for Bombardier will be to sign a firm 2013 launch customer. Mongolian regional airline Eznis is currently the only other customer to have signed a letter of interest with Bombardier for seven CSeries aircraft.

The carrier has said it plans to firm the order in 2010.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Bombardier announced the re-designation of the twin CSeries variants. The 110-seat C110 has been re-branded the CS100 and the 130-seat C130 is now the CS300. The change is likely geared toward avoiding confusion with the C-130 Hercules, a multi-role military cargo aircraft.

With the global economy heading south, the Chinese Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) says it wants airlines in China to delay or cancel delivery of aircraft in 2009.

Thousand point spikes and drops are enough to make my stomach churn. Since September 12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has only had three days where the close at the end of the day was less than 100 points difference from the opening, and even on those days the market swung wildly during trading. All this volatility could be bad for business and bad for backlogs.

With the global economy [insert perilous sounding metaphor], consumers are taking a more conservative approach with their finances. Americans are already cutting back on traveling, shopping and eating out to save where they can. With less movement of goods and people, energy costs will begin to drop with the reduced demand. In just the last two weeks, the price at the pump fell 36 cents, the steepest drop ever.

Which brings me to a comment made two weeks ago by Boeing CEO Jim McNerney:

Our airline customers already are struggling to operate profitably under volatile and high fuel prices. A reduction in business and leisure travel would further damage their fragile health and potentially impact the sales of our airplanes and services. However, the flip side of the high fuel price coin is that demand in the market for our fuel-efficient new airplanes remains high, and we have seen few order deferrals or cancellations. [Emphasis mine]

Mr. McNerney is absolutely right, but what happens if the other side of the coin is wiped clean? What if the high fuel price is no longer a factor?

Did the pain of $140 forever impress upon airlines the need for new fuel efficient aircraft? Or has the pain subsided as capacity cuts have given way to a healthy influx of cash?

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer identified a 'triple threat' to Boeing that included the on-going strike, 787 delays and an inability for its customers to secure financing. The first three are accurate representations for Boeing, but a fourth threat is one that could strike at Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer as well.

How low and for how long does oil have to remain cheap for backlogs to feel the pain? If airlines are able to operate profitably without new fuel-efficient aircraft, does it still make sense to buy new equipment?

Bombardier unveiled its Learjet 85 cabin mock-up here at NBAA and I was invited to take a look inside the new Rockwell Collins Pro Line Fusion avionics suite.

UPDATE: See our walk through video of the Learjet 85 cabin mock-up.

The business end of the first composite Bombardier aircraft features three 15.1" (38.4 cm) Active Matrix Liquid Crystal Displays (AMLCD), Electronic Flight Instrument System (EFIS), Dual automatic Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS), Integrated Flight Information System (IFIS) with electronic charts, One Class II Electronic Flight Bag (EFB), Synthetic Vision System for Situational Awareness (SVS), Terrain Awareness and Warning System (TAWS), Dual Flight Management System (FMS) and a weather radar system.

Wow, that's a lot of alphabet soup! Take a look: