Recently in Bombardier Category

My colleague Mary Kirby got a huge scoop today on the specifications for Bombardier's CSeries. (initial details) The full story should be running at flightglobal.com soon. The new variant gives good indication of customer interest if Bombardier is willing to tailor a new variant around specific types of performance.

Bombardier unveils new CSeries variant; changes current specs
Mary Kirby, Philadelphia (30 Jun 08 14:17 GMT)

Bombardier plans to develop a short-range, high-thrust variant of the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF)-powered CSeries 130, should it opt this year to launch the proposed 110/130-seat aircraft programme.

The new variant, called the CSeries 130XT, was revealed as part of Bombardier's release of new performance specifications and dimensions - including a longer wingspan and shorter external lengths - for the family of aircraft, which also comprises the CSeries 110, 110ER, 130 and 130ER.

Is the airline crisis of 2008 worse than the economic aftermath of September 11, 2001?

Yes, absolutely.

9/11 was a crisis of confidence in the safety of air travel. Airlines simply couldn't fill their planes. The 2008 crisis is far more serious. The psychological injury of 9/11 has since healed and empty planes and cheap gas has given way to very full planes and the most expensive gas in US history.

The crisis cuts even deeper now because access to new sources of revenue aren't available when planes are already full. Instead we see higher ticket prices or new fees on first bags, second bags, legroom, food, curb-side check-in and soon seatbelt usage (snark). Eventually, the price of flying will become so prohibitively high that the bottom of the market may just fall out completely. The upper level of tolerance for ticket prices is not clear yet, but it will run out eventually, and when it does leisure travel is going to take a major hit, only further slowing the economy.

Just as 9/11 saw the retirement of 737-200s, 727s, 747-200s, DC-9s, 10s and L1011s, the crisis we find ourselves in today has 737 classics, the remaining DC-9s and soon MD-80s on the chopping block. Also, once the new generation of mid-size wide-body aircraft enter service at the end of next year, the older 767s will be retired.

So, as the fuel crisis for airlines only gets worse, the three options (the good, the bad and the ugly) merging, cutting capacity or declaring bankruptcy is the only way forward.

Struggling airlines invariably mean struggling manufacturers. Or does it?

The big four (Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer) - B.A.B.E. - consider it coined - all have huge backlogs to fall back on if orders dry up.  However this crisis should give them all pause to ask themselves if their product lines are prepared for the painful market dynamics ahead. All would likely answer yes, but here's a few thoughts for the road ahead.

These shots were generously provided by Bombardier and illustrate the on-going assembly of the 100 seat CRJ1000. First delivery is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2009.

SINGAPORE -- Bombardier's board has authorized the company to offer its 110-130 seat CSeries family aircraft to potential customers.

Top launch customer candidates include Northwest Airlines, Qatar Airways, ILFC and Lufthansa.

The authority to offer is an important step towards official launch of the aircraft program.

FlightBlogger spoke with Bombardier representatives this morning, and at the time the Canadian company refused to speculate on a report suggesting the board was just hours away from making its decision to authorize the company to offer the new family of aircraft.

The company has said it will seek firm commitments from customers before seeking launch approval.

Filed Wirelessly

UPDATE 9:44 AM 2/23: Potential launch customer comments (FULL RELEASE):

"Lufthansa's focus is on a sustainable fleet development providing flexibility for the future. This includes, amongst others, the assessment of technology, reliability, environmental footprint, economics and passenger comfort. We are considering the CSeries family of aircraft in our broader evaluation of opportunities for the lower end of the single-aisle fleet because its proposed advantages could be attractive to us," said Nico Buchholz, Senior Vice-President, Corporate Fleet, Lufthansa.

"The CSeries aircraft's 2013 entry into service date suits us very well. We envisage an order for 20 aircraft," said Akbar Al Baker, Chief Executive Officer, Qatar Airways.

"We are very interested in the aircraft and have been looking at the CSeries program very carefully," said Steven F. Udvar-Hazy, Chairman and CEO/Founder of the giant lessor company International Lease Finance Corporation. "ILFC is not only considering buying the aircraft, we could become a co-launch customer. However, other major airlines need to sign up to the program as well. We would like to see a North American, European and possibly Asian customer," he added.

This story broke overnight here in Singapore. This could be the major step toward launch. All indications point to the seriousness of Bombardier to move forward with the product. The buzz around the P&W geared turbo fan engine is the real story of SA2008. I am talking to Bombardier later this morning about the CSeries, so there may be more on this as the day develops. Stay tuned.

SINGAPORE AIR SHOW Bombardier to take step towards launching CSeries jets

SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - Bombardier Inc will take a significant step towards launching its long-awaited CSeries of larger airliners later this week, according to an aerospace industry source.

The board of the Canadian regional aircraft maker is expected to make a formal 'authorisation to offer' decision on the CSeries at a meeting on Friday, the source told Thomson Financial News at the Singapore Air Show.

The decision would mean Bombardier can put the proposals for the jet out to the market, paving the way for a formal decision to launch the 2.1 bln usd programme in time to meet a planned entry-into-service date of 2013.

UPDATE 1:33 PM: I had an opportunity to speak with representatives from Bombardier this morning. They would confirm nor deny anything about a potential board meeting for launch approval. They refused to comment on "speculation" about the launch of the CSeries. They added that in the event of a launch, it would be done as a larger announcement, not a trickling out of news.

Both American and United have voiced their growing frustration with the pace of development of a suitable replacement for the nearly 400 aircraft they want replaced. Both Boeing and Airbus are in no hurry to replace their narrowbody offerings. But really, why should they? There were almost 1800 A320/737NG aircraft ordered in 2007.

Each excerpt courtesy of Lori Ranson with ATI

United:

Jake Brace, CFO at United parent UAL, told journalists today that in the long term the carrier is “very interested” in a narrowbody replacement that “neither of the manufacturers is offering yet.”

“We are encouraging them because we think that is the right way to replace what is a pretty large narrowbody fleet for us,” Brace says. He adds the carrier would not seek a replacement aircraft until well into the next decade.

---

American:

Management at American Airlines is hinting the carrier might have to use current Boeing narrowbodies to replace its MD-80 aircraft as a result of slow movement by manufacturers in offering a next-generation narrowbody design.

CEO Gerard Arpey tells analysts and investors the carrier “continues to be a little discouraged” by the timing of the next generation narrowbody.

According to the Flight ACAS database, there are 615 active MD-80 and Classic 737 aircraft being flown by Delta, Northwest, United and American. These airlines have made no secret of their desire to replace each and every single one with a newer generation of fuel efficient aircraft.

Enter the CSeries

The frustration by US airlines presents itself as a golden opportunity for the Bombardier CSeries. There has been speculation as to whether or not the new 110/130 seat aircraft will ever see an official launch. However, according to Mary Kirby of Runway Girl/Flight International/Air Transport Intelligence:

“We expect to have guidance by the end of 2008 on whether to go forward with that,” said Bombardier director, airline industry analysis and strategy Chuck Evans today during an Air Transport World webinar.

Bombardier could wait until the end of the year before announcing a decision on whether to launch the proposed 110/130-seat CSeries.

He notes, however, that Bombardier sees the CSeries “as the next logical step for our business”.

He adds: “We’re looking at the CSeries as the future platform to carry us [into the] future.”

Source: Air Transport Intelligence news

One largely unreported story from Dubai is beginning to gain a bit of clarity:

Green aircraft to replace 737
By Ivan Gale, Staff Reporter
Gulfnews.com

In the next 18 months, Boeing expects to arrive at a design template for the 737 replacement, with "notional entry into service" around the middle of the next decade.

"The technology to create an airplane that could economically obsolete the 737 and Airbus 320 class of airplanes looks to us to be around 2015, give or take," Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief executive Scott Carson told Gulf News.

So how much business is at stake over the next twenty years in the single aisle market? Both Airbus and Boeing agree that there is no less than $1 trillion available between now and 2026. If you average delivery forecast from both manufacturers you have more than 16,000 new single aisle aircraft rolling off the assembly lines in the next two decades.

DUBAI -- Gary Scott, President of New Commercial Aircraft Programs for Bombardier Aerospace, tells Flightblogger and Flight International that the Montreal based aircraft maker is now working exclusively with Pratt & Whitney to offer a geared turbo fan engine on its C-Series aircraft.

Bombardier intends to launch its C-Series aircraft in 2008 for an entry in to service in 2013.