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NBAA 09: Embraer joins the '650' club
By John Croft

Embraer has revealed that it has successfully flown the first Legacy 650 large-cabin business jet, an upgraded version of its super-midsize Legacy 600. The launch brings to seven the total number of executive jets in the Brazilian airframer's portfolio.

"One thing our Legacy customers kept telling us is that the aircraft should have more range," says Claudio Camelier, Embraer's vice-president of market intelligence for executive jets. "The 650 is a response to that demand.

Embraer began delivering the Legacy 600, a derivative of the ERJ-135 regional jet, in 2002 and has produced more than 170 to date. Embraer considers the Legacy 600 to be a super-midsize category aircraft and the new 650 a large-cabin offering.

The company has two 650s flying in Brazil, one prototype and one pre-series version that flew within days of each other for the first time in late September, says Camelier. The flight test programme is scheduled for completion by mid-2010, with certification and service entry expected in the second half of 2010. The company launched the programme internally in first half of 2008, says Camelier.
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As you may know, I was down in Brazil last week visiting Embraer's Sao Jose dos Campos and Gaviao Peixoto facilities. We had a chance to see the company's commercial jet production and the rapidly advancing Phenom 100 line. Embraer hopes to deliver 110 Phenoms this year and it looks like they are well on their way doing just that. We were only allowed to photograph selected portions of the assembly operations, but I hope that it gives you a glimpse into the goings on at two of the company's biggest facilities.
 

Taken from the control tower at Gaviao Peixoto airport near the town of Araraquara. GPX has the longest runway in the southern hemisphere and is the South American alternate landing site for the Space Shuttle if need be. In addition, it hosts Embraer's flight test operations, as well as final assembly of both the Phenom 100 and 300.

SAO JOSE DOS CAMPOS -- Embraer has completely overhauled its final assembly operations for the E-170 and E-190 family of aircraft, switching from a slant assembly to a pulsing assembly line.

The now two-month-old horse shoe-shaped final assembly line hosts five indoor positions and a sixth that sees the aircraft move to the flight line in preparation for flight test.

Embraer says that an aircraft will move positions every two days, spending a total of ten days inside, with an additional two days outside before flying.

The original slant line, which previously hosted seven fixed dock slant positions exclusively for E-190 and E-195 aircraft, now consolidates E-170 and E-175 operations into a single final assembly line for both families.

The new system seeks to removes critical path milestones, such as the installation of interiors, engines and other key assembly tasks that could otherwise hold up the movement of the assembly line.

The horse shoe shaped assembly line eliminates the wing-to-body join process from the final assembly area. The mating of the wings to the fuselage is now done elsewhere at Embraer's Sao Jose dos Campos facility.

After the wing-to-body join is complete, the aircraft arrive fully painted in preparation for systems installation, interior outfitting, engine installation and other pre-flight checks including power-on.

The new system, which the company says was approved in 2007, is part of Embraer's push to incorporate philosophies of lean manufacturing into its aircraft assembly operations.

The company says that the Phenom 100 very light jet was the first Embraer aircraft to incorporate this methods into its production plan from day one.

Good morning from Brazil! Just arrived here in overcast Sao Paulo after a quick 9.5 hour flight from Dulles on 777 N798UA. I'll be here for the next three days visiting Embraer in Sao Jose dos Campos about 45 minutes away. I'll be in the factory later today to see the company's commercial assembly lines and the off to Gaviao Peixoto to see the Phenom operations tomorrow. I'll also be getting a further update on Phenom 300 flight test and Legacy 500 development. Should prove to be a very busy first half of the week for me. More from Brazil soon!

Embraer's Phenom 300 is pushing through its certification campaign, having passed the 750 flight test-hour mark with four flying aircraft since the aircraft's first flight on April 29, 2008.

The aerodynamic configuration of the aircraft is now finalized and the company is continuing to explore the maximum operational speed and maximum altitude envelope, says Augusto Salgado da Rocha, product strategy sr. manager Executive Jets.

Other testing has included water spray, engine controllability and in-flight start and thrust determination and fire detection and extinguishing in on the Pratt & Whitney Canada's PW535E engine.

Salgado da Rocha added that the aircraft has completed bird strike tests on the light jet and its fatigue and static structural tests are ongoing. Natural icing, crosswind takeoff and landings, cold soak and external noise test have all been completed with autopilot and avionics tests, flutter and high speed tests and landing and takeoff performance are continuing.

The Brazilian airframer says the aircraft is on track for a certification and entry into service in the fourth quarter.

For the smaller Phenom 100, which was certificated in the fourth quarter of 2008, Embraer has delivered a total of 25 of the VLJs to date, says Ernie Edwards, Embraer vice president, marketing and sales U.S.A., Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean.

The company will introduce its clean-sheet DeCrane Aerospace cabin seat design, with optional armrest in the fourth quarter for newly delivered Phenom 100s with a retrofit option available in the first quarter of 2010.

Embraer has responded to certifications concerns about the amount of cabin space available by increasing the aisle width from 8.15 in to 13.58 in. Other upgrades to the Phenom 100 coming in 2010 will include pathways navigation and a synthetic vision system.

Salgado da Rocha adds that Embraer has been actively retrofitting an interim fix to the Phenom 100's flap system following an airworthiness directive in February after it was found the flap handle position could miscompare between commanded and actual flap settings.

With Boeing and Airbus's hands full with their respective composite widebody aircraft, Embraer has begun to publicly discuss its options for entry into the narrowbody market.

This week's exclusive report by Mary Kirby, looks at what Embraer executive vice president airline market Mauro Kern had to say about the possibility of an all-new design larger than the E-195 .

In what is perhaps the Brazilian airframer's strongest indication yet that it may bring to market a clean-sheet competitor to Bombardier's P&W geared turbofan-powered CSeries, Embraer executive vice president airline market Mauro Kern says that Embraer is studying "some possible work with a little bigger [aircraft] than the current 195, not only in terms of using the current platform, but also in terms of actually a new design".

Kern said clarity on a decision is 18 to 24 months away and an entry in to service wouldn't be until the second half of the next decade. However, that timing puts Embraer in an interesting position to potentially be the initial launch customer for the CFM LEAP-X platform, slated for certification by 2016.

Embraer is talking with General Electric, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce, however Kern pointed out his company's special relationship with GE, which makes the CF34 engines that power the family of E-Jets. The report says that the thrust requirements for a potentially 130-140-seat aircraft would exceed "the nominal 20,000lb (89kN) upper threshold agreed by CFM International partners GE and Snecma for unilateral engine development, meaning that any offering would likely come from CFM."

Kern did not elaborate on what the configuration of a clean-sheet design may take, but its future competitor, Bombardier's CSeries, has opted for 3-2 seating up to 145 seats with its larger CS300 aircraft. The 3-2 seating arrangement is also shared by the currently flying DC-9, MD-80 and 717.

The Brazillian company now potentially expands the narrowbody competition to five parties with China and Canada actively vying for a piece of the market against Boeing and Airbus. Perhaps distantly, keep an eye on the result of the upcoming first ruling in the Boeing/Airbus WTO case, expected by the close of summer. The preliminary ruling could set the stage for how launch aid funds are handled for future commercial aircraft development programs.

It's odd to begin a discussion about an industry upswing days after Boeing joined Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer in cutting aircraft production amid an "unprecedented" downturn. All are struggling and airlines and lessors are making it clear that battening down the hatches and shrinking capacity, not growing it, is the safest course through the storm.

Holding off on orders is a safe bet for the worlds airlines, but with 2757 orders in 2007 and over 1400 last year, it appears airlines are just tapped out more than anything. Now they wait for their aircraft to be built. Airbus and Boeing can point to their strong backlogs as evidence of the order frenzy.

Both Airbus and Boeing can claim various superlatives with the launch of 787 and A350. The job for both is getting them fully designed, built, flown, certified and delivered. Though, 787 in some ways is holding itself and its chief competitor in limbo right now.

Airbus is waiting to see what happens with 787 before they firm up A350 details while Boeing waits on the A350 before figuring out what to do with a 777 refresh. All the while, engineering resources are not committed to 737/A320 replacements, pushing entry into service past 2020.

Though, something curious happened this past quarter that deserves recognition. Bombardier earned more orders for CSeries (50) than Boeing (22) and Airbus (23) did in combined gross orders. If you make it net orders, the total between the two titans is only four.

Yes, both firm orders for CSeries were expected last year, yet even with the onset of the recession, they still materialized. Though, the demand for a new narrowbody is there, with Southwest getting antsy, Air France/KLM pining for a replacement to their A320/737s, US Airways ready for a 757 successor and SAS and Air Canada jumping in as well to discuss fleet replacement. That's five airline in the last 10 days alone.

Add those five customers to American and United calling for replacements from Airbus and Boeing and you're talking about some of the largest narrowbody customers in the world.

Though, Boeing keenly understands the virtue of launching an aircraft in a downmarket, a strategy that Bombardier and Embraer are taking to heart. Both 777 and 787 were forged out of the recessions of the early 90s and post-9/11, respectively.

By most estimates, the next upswing for the global economy should be in full effect by 2013, right when CSeries will be coming online. For Airbus and Boeing, A320 and 737 will still be prominently in the picture. Is a mid-life refresh enough to hold the market until 2020?

Embraer, which has already said they wouldn't be pressured into the larger narrowbody market, is laying the groundwork for future plans. Embraer President and CEO Frederico Fleury Curado said the manufacturer will make a decision in the next 18-24 months regarding entry into the 150-seat market, going head-to-head-to-head-to-head with Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing.

The case against CSeries made by Airbus and Boeing centers on the abandonment of commonality and airplane support long built up by a combined 70+ years in the narrowbody market and the extended presence of A320/737 family aircraft in airline fleets.

Though, for Embraer, Air France, KLM, Air Canada, US Airways and United all operate E-Jets, many in mainline service, would their experience here nullify that argument?

While Boeing and Airbus are laser focused on the long-range twin market, their smaller Canadian and Brazilian counterparts are moving in to fill the void. Though, not long too long ago Boeing was planning for a 2012-2015 entry into service for its narrowbody replacement. Yet, for Airbus and Boeing, CSeries is still perceived as a fly buzzing around the head of the giants.

"The only way airlines can get that leverage back is if the Bombardier CSeries becomes a big success," says Richard Aboulafia.

For Boeing and Airbus, what's the tipping point? That psychological and strategic tripwire that signals a genuine threat to their duopoly? Malcolm Gladwell might say 150 orders. What about a certain blue-chip customer putting a stamp of approval on a new aircraft type?

Boeing and Airbus have become accustomed to looking to their left and right to see the competitive landscape. What about a glance in the rear view mirror?

Embraer announced today (PDF) that it plans significant cuts in aircraft production and its workforce as a result of the "unprecedented crisis affecting the global economy."

The reduction in personnel represents approximately 20 percent of its 21,362 employees and is concentrated in the production and administrative areas, including the elimination of one layer in the management structure. The significant majority of the engineering workforce will be kept engaged in programs for development of new products and technologies, which will be kept unchanged.
 
In light of this new scenario, Embraer has revised its revenue guidance for 2009 to US$ 5.5 billion, corresponding to 242 commercial and executive aircraft deliveries. As a result of this reduction in revenues, the Company has also revised its investment guidance to US$ 350 million for the year.

Embraer initially expected to deliver 270 business and commercial aircraft in 2009, a cut of 10%. The Brazilian manufacturer did not specify if the cuts would impact the business or commercial side of the business. Though, if competitors Bombardier, Cessna and Hawker Beechcraft are a guide, then the production cuts could predominantly impact business aircraft production.

Earlier today, Airbus also announced a production cut for its A320 Family aircraft from 36 to 34 /month, while holding A330/A340 production at 8.5/month. The delivery forecast of 21 A380s in 2009 was still in effect, though overall production would be "similar" to 2008's 483 aircraft delivered. The European airframer did not specify any reduction in workforce, but warned that further cuts may be possible.

With the global economy heading south, the Chinese Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) says it wants airlines in China to delay or cancel delivery of aircraft in 2009.