Jon Ostrower : June 2008 Archives

Delivery of the fourth 787 flight test aircraft has been delayed due to damage sustained to the center fuselage at the Global Aeronautica facility in Charleston, SC, Boeing has confirmed.

Sources in both Everett and Charleston tell FlightBlogger that the repair, which was completed this past weekend, centers around damage caused to section 44, a monolithic bonnet structure joined to the center wing box fabricated by Italy's Alenia Aeronautica.

"An Alenia Aeronautica employee had an issue not following proper procedures, we've had a production issue that has resulted," said Boeing. "The repair has been completed and the issue has been resolved."

Boeing is currently assessing the schedule situation adding that, "we will know soon" when the center fuselage will be delivered.

Alenia North America, which holds a fifty-percent share in the Global Aeronautica joint venture with Boeing, was unable to comment on the incident by press time.

Boeing underscored that the incident was isolated and unrepresentative of the production system but declined to provide specific details about the incident.

According to sources, incorrect fasteners were improperly installed in the wrong holes causing damage to the composite structure during the join process in Charleston. When installed, each fastener "splintered out the hole" causing significant enough damage to postpone delivery of the center fuselage.

Boeing added that Global Aeronautica would have met the commitment of the completion of assembly and on-time delivery had the incident not taken place. As a result, the center fuselage is being held in Charleston for continuing assembly work to meet the level of completion originally committed to Boeing by Global Aeronautica.

Boeing does not currently have a timeline for the delivery of the center fuselage for Dreamliner Four to Everett.

Indications of the delay arose last week when the nose and center fuselage sections were removed from the delivery calendar without explanation.

Boeing and Global Aeronautica have a "zero tolerance for fiber breakout" for composite structure prompting the time-consuming repairs to section 44, says a veteran engineer familiar with the problems.

Boeing acknowledged that the follow-on impact of the delay to the flight test program and overall FAA certification, if any, is unclear.

My colleague Mary Kirby got a huge scoop today on the specifications for Bombardier's CSeries. (initial details) The full story should be running at flightglobal.com soon. The new variant gives good indication of customer interest if Bombardier is willing to tailor a new variant around specific types of performance.

Bombardier unveils new CSeries variant; changes current specs
Mary Kirby, Philadelphia (30 Jun 08 14:17 GMT)

Bombardier plans to develop a short-range, high-thrust variant of the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF)-powered CSeries 130, should it opt this year to launch the proposed 110/130-seat aircraft programme.

The new variant, called the CSeries 130XT, was revealed as part of Bombardier's release of new performance specifications and dimensions - including a longer wingspan and shorter external lengths - for the family of aircraft, which also comprises the CSeries 110, 110ER, 130 and 130ER.

777F to the sky!
Boeing has narrowed its 777F first flight from June 27 to July 9. The heart of that window is this week and sources point to July 3 as the likely date for the new freighter to fly for the first time. This, of course, depends on the weather. Look for the first engine start, low and high sped taxi tests ahead of first flight this week. (You really don't want these to happen...after...first flight)

Also, I'll be doing a preview post running through the flight test program top to bottom later this week with a briefing from 777 Chief Test Pilot Suzanna Darcy-Henneman. In the meantime, take a look at Boeing Unveils Radical Flight Test Reorganization by Guy Norris and North Texans Helping to Build Aviation's Future by Bob Cox.

I'm using 777F as a test run for potential new techniques for covering 787 first flight, so keep an eye out for those.

A380 Number Five
Singapore Airlines collected MSN010 (9V-SKE), the fifth A380 delivered, this past weekend clearing the way for delivery of MSN011 to Emirates, the second A380 customer on July 28th. MSN010 will be tasked with flying Olympic traffic to Beijing during the first week of August leading up to the 08.08.08 start of the Summer games.

Oil, Oil, Oil
The entire industry is already on red alert about the price of oil and there's a distinct possibility we see a price for a barrel going north to $150. (shudder)

New Look
I hit on this a little bit last week, but the new design should be ready this week right as this blog cross the 1,000,000 page load mark since I first joined Flight. The new layout should bear a striking resemblance to David Learmount's new blog, cleverly titled Learmount.

And this...

The caption as it was sent to me:
The attached photo was taken at the UPS first flight ceremony at Nagoya for the start of their Anchorage to Nagoya and Nagoya to Shanghai routes. As chance would have it, the first-ever A380 flight to Japan, a Singapore Airlines flight from Changi to Narita, was diverted to Nagoya because of bad weather in Tokyo. A Boeing Large Cargo Freighter made its scheduled arrival to ferry out 787 components, just as the A380 was departing for Narita. The result is a picture of the largest passenger plane and largest freighter together.

Special thanks to EW for the photo

In dramatic fashion, Pratt & Whitney has produced a video previewing its upcoming flight test program for the new Geared Turbofan engine. The company graciously given FlightBlogger the trailer for its world premier here on the blog.

Some more background:

Geared Turbofan™ Engine Completes Phase II Ground Testing, Cleared for First Flight

BERLIN AIR SHOW 2008 - May 28, 2008 - Pratt & Whitney's Geared Turbofan demonstrator engine has completed Phase II ground tests and has been cleared for flight testing on Pratt & Whitney's 747SP flying test bed mid-year.  Phase II, which began in April at Pratt & Whitney's advanced test facility in West Palm Beach, Fla., focused on engine performance and ground acoustics with the Geared Turbofan engine's flight capable nacelle system.  The engine completed 120 hours of testing during Phase II and has logged a total 250 hours since ground testing began in November 2007.  Pratt & Whitney is a division of United Technologies Corp.

Now, without further delay...

EXTRA: Listen to the IAG Podcast with Aviation Partners CEO Joe Clark

Imagine an improvement in aerodynamics that might just have the potential to transform aviation.

Joe Clark, CEO of Aviation Partners, believes he's got just the thing.

Spiroid tipped wing technology has the potential to save airlines a lot of fuel. Rather than the blended winglet, which has become the standard for all new Boeing 737s coming off the line, a Spiroid tipped wing differs by curving over to create a loop at the end of the wingtip.

According to Aviation Partners, "The Spiroid eliminates concentrated wingtip vortices, which represent nearly half the induced drag generated during cruise."

The technology isn't new. In fact, Dr. Louis Gratzer, Vice President of Technology for Aviation Partners has held the patent on the Spiroid tipped wings since 1992. When the winglets first flew on a Gulfstream II, Aviation Partners yielded a 10% improvement in fuel burn.

In a short-haul environment, a 10% improvement with Spiroid tipped wings could be the stepping-stone to the next-generation in fuel efficiency.

For example, the new Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan has touted a 12-15% improvement in SFC (specific fuel consumption). Pratt & Whitney has always affirmed that the 12-15% improvement is separate from whatever gains in efficiency are delivered through aerodynamic refinement of the aircraft.

The coupling of these two technologies could deliver fuel burn improvements up to 22-25%, exceeding even the most optimistic of forecasts without radical changes in engine technology or aircraft configuration that might be required with an unducted fan or blended wing body for example.

From an aerodynamic standpoint, Clark added that the Spiroids are compatible for any swept wing aircraft. Testing on a Falcon 50 will begin in 3-4 months to further validate the technology.

"We need to get out and do the full flight test realm. We don't know what they are going to do in icing and in flutter," said Clark.

Following the Falcon 50 Spiroid flight tests later this year, Clark wants to test the technology on a Boeing 777. On the longer-range 777s, this would require the removal of the raked wing tips. Boeing's raked winglets provide a 5.5% improvement in fuel burn over the original 777-200/200ER/300 aircraft.

Boeing has estimated that for every 1% improvement in fuel burn, the 777 would gain 75 nm in range, 10 more passengers or 2,400 pounds of cargo.

A doubling in wingtip efficiency with Spiroids could open the door for new routes for airlines. The famed 'Kangaroo Route', the non-stop flight between Sydney and London could finally be in reach. The 777-200LR is able to make the journey one-way, but the route has never been economically viable because of the prevailing winds that limit payload capacity. A 4.5% improvement in fuel burn could, once and for all, open up the route.

I'm working on a bunch of differing things this week that will be rolled out in the coming days and weeks. We're also working on a new design for the blog I think you'll really like. I finished up the new header yesterday and added gave representation to all four members of the B.A.B.E.. It should be ready to roll before Farnborough, which is creeping up on us rapidly.

If I had to shake my magic 8-ball today and ask if the price of oil is going to dominate Farnborough, the answer would almost certainly be: "Signs point to yes"

I added a new widget to the blog that tells you the current painful price of crude oil. With fuel this high, I just hope there's an industry to cover in a year. (Uncomfortable laugh)

Some important stories to take a look at:

How the Airlines Are Wasting Fuel
By Rick Seaney
ABC News

Oil Surge May Cost Jet Makers Orders
By J. Lynn Lunsford and Susan Carey
Wall Street Journal

Aerospace Notebook: MD-80 era winding down as fuel costs rise
By James Wallace
Seattle Post-Intelligencer

Airlines facing shrinking pains as fuel prices surge
By Julie Johnsson
Chicago Tribune

Boeing's Goings On
Boeing launched its power-on feature at newairplane.com. It gives a good rundown of the power-on process, as well as some of the first shots of a very alive ZA001 flight deck. Also, it looks as though the first sections of LN7, the first production 787 for ANA, have been delivered to the US. Section 43 from Kawasaki stopped in Everett yesterday on its way to Charleston soon.

This week will bring us the commencement of final assembly operations for ZA004 after this weekend's line move and ZY998's Friday transfer to the 767 line. Lastly, Wednesday marks the one year anniversary of the original 787 roll-out.


A380 Convoy
Over the next few days a fresh set of wings and a horizontal stabilizer will be winding across the French countryside on their way to Toulouse. Not sure who the lucky airline recipient will be, but please let me know if you spot it along the way.

GTF to the Sky
Keep an eye out, Pratt & Whitney's Geared Turbofan is expected to take to the skies under the wing of a 747SP in the very near future. This page will feature an exclusive video previewing the beginning of flight testing in the next few days.

Oshkosh B'Gosh
As if next month wasn't going to be busy enough, I've been (happily) assigned to cover the EAA AirVenture in Oshkosh, WI in late July. Quite wonderfully, they've opened their doors to bloggers, so it's going to be a new media fest at 'Aviation Paradise'. Also, I'm quite content to fly commercial, but I wanted to see if anyone on the east coast was flying privately and had an extra seat for this blogger. I wanted to do an feature chronicling the journey out there hop-by-hop across the United States. (will help with gas)

F'Blogger@F'Boro
Quick question to you all, what do you want to see from FlightBlogger at Farnborough? Interviews? Topics?

The completion of the 787 first power-on sets the stage for the next phase of the Dreamliner's march toward first flight. The milestone was met to the day according to sources familiar with the schedule.

The initial power-on testing began on June 11 and wrapped up yesterday. The testing, according to one program source, went more smoothly than initially anticipated. The program staffer stated that, "This is one thing [Boeing] thought was going to be a major issue in our program." The staffer added that Boeing never expected problems to crop up in the supply chain.

Gauntlet testing is next on the agenda for Dreamliner One. The aircraft's computer system will be fooled into thinking its flying to simulate every imaginable phase of flight, as well as a myriad of potential failures.

"That's really when the fun starts, we can really see how stable the airplane is. So, are there any problems that need to be resolved?" 787 VP and General Manager Pat Shanahan said in mid-May. "Guess what, there will be lots of those," he added. "And the idea is none of them will be severe...I expect people run in every half hour and they'll drop their grenade, then we'll dispatch the right people and we'll go resolve those issues."

For months, Boeing had planned its timeline around the completion of first power-on for ZA001. With this task now complete, the fatigue aircraft (ZY998) will be moved this evening (June 20) to the 767 line, then later to the fatigue rig for testing. The open assembly station will allow ZA002 and ZA003 to move to the third and second assembly stations respectively.

CONTINUED BELOW (WITH EXCLUSIVE PHOTOS)

EVERETT, Wash., June 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) has completed the Power On sequence for the first 787 Dreamliner, marking the completion of the next major milestone on the path to first flight later this year.

Power On is a complex series of tasks and tests that bring electrical power onto the airplane and begin to exercise the use of the electrical systems. The 787 is a more-electric airplane with the pneumatic, or bleed air, system being totally replaced by electronics.

"The team has made great progress in bringing the bold innovation of the 787 to reality," said Pat Shanahan, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "There is plenty of work to be done between now and first flight, but with every step forward we grow more and more confident."

The Power On sequence began in early June with a series of pretest continuity checks to verify that the wiring installed in the airplane had been connected properly. Upon completion of those checks, the Boeing team plugged in an external power cart and slowly began to bring full power into each segment of the system, beginning with the flight deck displays. From that point forward, the pilot's controls were used to direct the addition of new systems to the power grid.

Read the full release

Bring Your Own In-Flight Entertainment


Who needs in-flight movie selections when you can hook up to iTunes movie rentals at 30,000 feet for $3.99? Count this blogger in for a connected flight!

With oil spiraling towards $150, Continental a found the 4th way to survive the fuel crisis. In conjunction with the retirement of the Classic 737s, the airline is joining up with Star Alliance and apparently abandoning Sky Team and Delta-Northwest in the process. It's another way to cut capacity by sharing revenue on overlapping routes. It's the non-merger merger.

What's the best way to operate a profitable route? Let someone else fly it.

Larry Kellner was quite clear in his desire to keep Continental on its own. Should be very interesting to see how this one plays out.

Continental Airlines and United Airlines Announce Comprehensive Plan for Global Cooperation; Continental Plans to Join Star Alliance

CHICAGO, June 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL) and United Airlines (Nasdaq: UAUA) today announced a framework agreement to cooperate extensively, linking their networks and services worldwide to the benefit of customers, and creating revenue opportunities and cost savings and other efficiencies. In addition, Continental plans to join United in the Star Alliance, the most comprehensive airline alliance in the world.

This is a breaking story and will be updated as details become available.

GAO Statement

I've been working on two new features for the pre-Farnborough issue of Flight, one on 777 and the other on the 747-8. While researching yesterday, I came across a very interesting fact. With the help of the Way Back Machine, the historical archive of the entire internet, I found that the range of the 777-300ER has increased almost 11% (7,175 nm to 7,930 nm) since 2001! The maximum takeoff weight increased 25,000 lbs in that same time as well without a change in fuel capacity. To boot, the 777-200LR had a 6% increase in range too.

See for yourself.

Best. Week. Ever.
FlightBlogger had its highest traffic in a single week...ever.  The combination of the 787 power-on, Hawker 4000 certification, live twittering from Vought, Global Aeronautica and Spirit, and the peek inside Dreamliner Four's flight deck and cabin racked up a staggering 63,000 page loads and 44,000 visitors. That tops the previous best seven day take during the Singapore Air Show in February by over 50%. Worth noting, this blog is rapidly closing in on 1,000,000 hits since it was reborn in November of last year.

Also, what'd you think of Twitter? Love it? Hate it? Jon, what's Twitter?

Moving Day
As the close of the month draws near, Boeing has a big two weeks ahead. First, progressing with power-0on to validate the systems integration is job number one. Yet, even as the task of electrifying 787 ZA001 continues, a delicately choreographed dance is set to unfold in Everett in the next week or so. The fatigue airframe ZY998, will make its move later this week to its temporary home on the 767 line, freeing up a spot for Dreamliner Four to begin final assembly when the nose and center fuselage arrive. With ZY998 moving out, Dreamliner One will come out to play once again as well. Stay tuned.

Oh yeah, and 777F first flight should be really soon as well. Most likely before the United States turns a youthful looking 232.

UPDATE: I was rightfully reminded that on June 19 the Government Accountability Office (formerly the General Accounting Office) will be issuing its decision on Boeing's tanker protest.

Get 'Em While They're Hot
QANTAS has put begun selling tickets for the inaugural A380 flights between Melbourne and LA on October 20 and adding Sydney to Los Angeles starting October 24. V Australia, the new international arm of Virgin Blue will begin flights on the Sydney-LA route with a brand new 777-300ER in December. Should be quite interesting to see who gets the better operating economics, the twin-engine Boeing with 350 or the four-engine Airbus with 450.

UPDATE: Looks like QANTAS is giving serious consideration to the 777-300ER as a 747 replacement across the Pacific.

Farnborough
One month from today we'll be in the thick of the 2008 Farnborough Air Show. I've pretty much been prepping for this since I started with Flight in Dubai last November. The last nine months will have been a rehearsal for the big dance next month. I'll be there with bells on, ready to blog, twitter, flickr and other fun noun-verbs at the biggest aviation event of the year.

A Familiar Face
One last item. I took this photo as I was flying out of Wichita over McConnell Air Force Base on Friday. You might just recognize the aircraft on the ramp. I zoomed in to give you a better view. Click the image for a larger version.

WICHITA, KS -- This is likely to be the first, and hopefully the last, FlightBlogger blog post from inside an active tornado warning which is in effect for the Wichita area.

Dreamliner Four forward fuselage, also known as Section 41, will be delivered to Everett next week on June 19. It will be the first 787 nose section with 100% completion of assembly.

It's worth comparing these photos to those of Dreamliner Three from the Everett Final Assembly Line taken mid last month.

Click on each image for a high resolution version.

CONTINUED BELOW

WICHITA, KS -- Spirit Aerosystems showed off its forward 787 Section 41 today and invited the media onboard Dreamliner Four, the first nose section to be delivered with a 100% completion of assembly. The first photo features, from left to right, Dreamliners Four, Five, Six and Seven.

CONTINUED BELOW

The level of completion is virtually 100% at this point. Ship date:
June 19.

UPDATE 3 - 5:25 AM - 6/12:

WICHITA, KS -- Just feet behind the football field sized door of Building 40-26 at Boeing's Everett, Washington facility, a small group of program staff Wednesday began breathing life into the first 787 Dreamliner.

The aircraft was powered-on for the first time, marking the beginning of a check-out process to validate the systems integration of the 787.

Boeing has confirmed the testing has begun and has issued this statement:

"We're pleased the process has begun, and we are confident we'll meet the milestone in June."

Boeing added that the power-on process is to last between 10 days and two weeks and is expected to be completed by the end of the month.

At the most recent delay announcement in April, Vice President and General Manager of the 787 Program Pat Shanahan outlined a series of key milestones that would occur by June 30.

To track program progress, those milestones included the move of the static and fatigue structural test aircraft to test locations, the beginning of final assembly of Dreamliners Three and Four, hardware airworthiness qualifications and the completion of power-on testing.

To date the static test airframe has moved to its test facilty, final assembly of Dreamliner Three is well underway and many major structures for Dreamliner Four have arrived in Everett. Once the fatigue test airframe is moved later this month, Dreamliner Four can begin final assembly as the body join station becomes available.

In May, Shanahan underscored the importance of the power-on testing:

"We'll have a good understanding of how well we've done systems integration and it's really at that point we understand what kind of airplane we have and a bunch of risk gets retired.

"So, if you called up July first and said, "Pat, how's it going? What do you know about this airplane?" I'll know significant amount more about the airplane and our ability to meet schedule on July first. We'll have taken all our work in the lab and put it in one airplane, so it's a big deal for us."

Shanahan, who took the helm of the 787 program in October 2007, was on hand for the commencement of power-on testing Wednesday.

Indications of commencement of power-on testing were running rampant earlier this week in Everett with the arrival of lit beacon signs on the factory floor reading When illuminated, production test in progress, as well as a newly erected perimeter around Dreamliner One Warning - Power On Testing - Authorized Personnel Only - No Entrance - No Exceptions.

According to several program sources, flat panel TV monitors have been set up on the factory floor showing a live video feed of the cockpit instruments.

Boeing, taking all appropriate precautions for their early power-on tests, had the facility fire department on hand.

This is a developing story and will be updated as details become available.

WICHITA, KS -- Hawker Beechcraft has obtained its final Type Certification and Production Certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration for its oft-delayed Hawker 4000 business jet. This latest milestone clears the way for its first delivery after 12 years of development.

According to Hawker Beechcraft, the first Hawker 4000 customer delivery of aircraft RC-7 is expected "soon".

The Hawker 4000 is the largest composite civil aircraft to be certified by the FAA to date.

Hawker Beechcraft was granted initial type certification for the Hawker 4000 in November of 2006, but deliveries and full production was put on hold because of post-certification modifications including a boost in the maximum takeoff weight, an increase in maximum operating altitude and approval for flight into known icing conditions.

The most notable of the changes was the installation of additional lightning protection for the composite fuselage business jet made at the insistence of the FAA.

The Hawker 4000 made its maiden flight August 11, 2001 in Wichita, Kansas. The aircraft, powered by two Pratt & Whitney Canada PW308A engines, can carry up to 14 passengers plus two crew members and sports a maximum range of 3,280 nm with eight passengers. Hawker Beechcraft has secured roughly 130 orders for the 4000 series aircraft, including the largest order in the manufacturer's history from NetJets for 50 aircraft in December 2005.

LN4 - Cell 20 @ Global Aeronautica being worked on.

Just a quick note from here in Charleston. I'm Twittering like a madman now. A very special thanks to Boeing, Vought and Global Aeronautica for giving web 2.0 a chance to find its way into the aviation industry. You can follow my twittering here.

Getting ready for departure to Everett.

Inside Vought. Aft fuselage sections 47 and 48 for Dreamliner 12, 13
and 14.

CHARLESTON, S.C. -- The third of four heavily modified Boeing 747-400s was certified June 6, 2008 by the Federal Aviation Administration for use on the 787 Program. The Large Cargo Freighter, or Dreamlifter, transports major 787 structural components from global supplier partners to Charleston, S.C. and Everett, WA for integration and final assembly respectively.

The aircraft, according to program sources, which is registered as N249BA, will join two other Dreamlifters in July for the worldwide logistical operation in support of the 787 program. The fourth Dreamlifter began modification in February and is expected to join the fleet in 2009.

I'm writing from Charleston, South Carolina this afternoon and it looks as though it's going to be a very busy week. I'll be reporting over the next several days from Global Aeronautica and Vought here in Charleston covering the progress for the 787 program on location. On Wednesday, I'll be transitioning west to Spirit Aerosystems in Wichita, Kansas for the same purpose. It should be a very packed week with lots going on, with potentially a big story or two coming down the pike.

As a quick refresher, Spirit Aerosystems is responsible for the forward nose fuselage barrel of the 787 (Section 41), the engine pylons and the fixed and movable leading edge of the wings.

Vought fabricates and joins the barrel sections of the aft fuselage (Sections 47 & 48) and Global Aeronautica, a joint venture between Boeing (pending completion of the acquisition from Vought) and Alenia, is next door and acts as a major integrator of the center fuselage.

The center fuselage is the combination of four main structures. The first two are from Japan. The center wing box and wheel well (Section 45/11) and forward fuselage barrel (Section 43). The second two are from Italy. The fuselage crown over the center wing box (Section 44) and the aft fuselage barrel (Section 46).

Current and Future Blogging
In the here and now, I've finally surrendered and I'm giving Twitter a try. If you're not familiar with Twitter it's a microblogging platform that allows for 140 character updates using the web, text or email. It'll make for live blogging of factory tours, air shows and major events that much easier to follow. Not to mention, comments/thoughts about the aviation industry. No individual postings on the blog, just live from me to the internet. You can subscribe and follow it directly on Twitter or through Friendfeed where I've integrated it as well. Let's go ahead and file this under the beta category and see how it works out.

Looking towards the future, Apple announced its iPhone 3G today and a higher-speed connection will benefit this blog greatly. Some of you may know, my iPhone is my numero uno blogging tool after my laptop and lets me get those live shots directly on the blog with zero distribution time with mobile posting. New applications built directly into the phone will add an entirely new dimension which I'm looking forward to exploring. I'm still trying to find what works and what doesn't for this blog, and the technology envelope could always use some more little pushing.

Musing
In closing, I wanted to pose a question to my B.A.B.E. post Friday. I want to turn this one over to all of you. What products do you think are missing from the market? If you were at the top of one of the big four, what would you do with oil heading for $150 a barrel?

As I sometimes say, Onward.

I found out this afternoon that this blogger was shortlisted for a 2008 Aerospace Journalist of the Year Award by the World Leadership Forum. I was selected in the Breaking News category for my coverage of the 787 Dreamliner program over the past year. I'm truly blown away by this and I wanted to once again thank all of you for making this possible. Like I've always said, without you, I'm just talking to myself. The winner will be announced on July 13th in London just before Farnborough, though just being shortlisted is a great honor in itself.

I was nominated along side four other outstanding journalists and I would be remiss if I didn't provide you links to their work.

Breaking News
Robert Hewson - Russia's Latest Cruise Missile - JDW Janes.com
Murdo Morrison - Ryanair Plans Transatlantic Airline - Flight Global. Com
Adrian Schofield - Unlocking China's Skies - Aviation Week
Patrick Veillette - Pilot Experience vs Youth - Business and Commercial Aviation

Also, a huge congratulations to my colleagues Nick Ionides, Craig Hoyle, Max Kingsley-Jones and Alan Peaford on being shortlisted as well!

Is the airline crisis of 2008 worse than the economic aftermath of September 11, 2001?

Yes, absolutely.

9/11 was a crisis of confidence in the safety of air travel. Airlines simply couldn't fill their planes. The 2008 crisis is far more serious. The psychological injury of 9/11 has since healed and empty planes and cheap gas has given way to very full planes and the most expensive gas in US history.

The crisis cuts even deeper now because access to new sources of revenue aren't available when planes are already full. Instead we see higher ticket prices or new fees on first bags, second bags, legroom, food, curb-side check-in and soon seatbelt usage (snark). Eventually, the price of flying will become so prohibitively high that the bottom of the market may just fall out completely. The upper level of tolerance for ticket prices is not clear yet, but it will run out eventually, and when it does leisure travel is going to take a major hit, only further slowing the economy.

Just as 9/11 saw the retirement of 737-200s, 727s, 747-200s, DC-9s, 10s and L1011s, the crisis we find ourselves in today has 737 classics, the remaining DC-9s and soon MD-80s on the chopping block. Also, once the new generation of mid-size wide-body aircraft enter service at the end of next year, the older 767s will be retired.

So, as the fuel crisis for airlines only gets worse, the three options (the good, the bad and the ugly) merging, cutting capacity or declaring bankruptcy is the only way forward.

Struggling airlines invariably mean struggling manufacturers. Or does it?

The big four (Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer) - B.A.B.E. - consider it coined - all have huge backlogs to fall back on if orders dry up.  However this crisis should give them all pause to ask themselves if their product lines are prepared for the painful market dynamics ahead. All would likely answer yes, but here's a few thoughts for the road ahead.

In mid-May, Boeing 787 Vice President and General Manager Pat Shanahan expected the crucial power-on milestone to be a "photo finish" for Dreamliner One, but affirmed the milestone was "on track" for the end of June. With the end of June just three and a half weeks away, the final path to 787 power-on is in sight.

According to program sources familiar with the schedule, the "photo finish" assessment is apt with the pace of working tracking closely to, or narrowly behind, where it needs to be, though major progress for Dreamliner One has picked up in recent weeks.

Power-on, according to several 787 program sources, is targeted for the middle of this month, though Boeing has built in a buffer to utilize the entire month of June for preparations if needed.

David Hess, President of Hamilton Sundstrand told a group of reporters, including FlightBlogger, visiting its Rockford, Il facility earlier this week that, "The power-on software is done and delivered, [Boeing's] got 100% of the hardware and software they need for power on."

"I fully expect [Boeing] to achieve that milestone by the end of the month," Hess declared.

According to Hamilton Sundstrand, the " full-up red label" power-on software build was delivered May 28. On the same day, Hamilton Sundstrand also delivered the first "blue label" Safety of Flight software build for additional lab testing to Boeing.

The power-on software differs from the Safety of Flight software because the power-on software is only intended for us in ground testing and does not require equipment such as the engines to be installed. Hamilton Sundstrand anticipates further changes to the Safety of Flight software as it matures in preparation for first flight. The more finalized Safety of Flight software build is to be delivered to Boeing in the next 30 days.

Hess added that for Hamilton Sundstrand, the pacing item continues to be software development, though progress was steady.

"A month ago Boeing was pretty uncomfortable with the risk levels as they looked at our schedules as to what we had to get done. Not that we were delaying the program, but if they look out ahead of us, they had some concerns in terms of the risk levels and the amount of software work we had complete in the coming months. Now we've since had reviews with them, shown them schedules, and I think they're, and I wouldn't say comfortable, but I think we've shown them a plan that supports their program and we're executing the plan."

Shanahan told reporters in mid-May that at the time he was still waiting on items from Hamilton Sundstrand for Dreamliner One.

"I told my friend Mr. Hess, I'll give you the best meal you've ever had if you get [the power supply] to me by the end of June", Shanahan said of Hess.

Hess tells FlightBlogger that he and Shanahan had been exchanging emails in recent days regarding their deal and that, "it was time for Pat to get out his wallet."

CONTINUED BELOW

Boeing has broken the 900 order mark for its hot-selling 787 Dreamiliner, according to a report from Flight's Air Transport Intelligence.

The firm order for 12 787s, was announced in Istanbul by Saudi Arabian Airlines. The order also includes 8 Airbus A330 aircraft.

Saudi Arabian Airlines General Director Khalid Al Molhem said no engine selection has been made, though the General Electric GEnx engine is being given strong consideration.

The passing of the 900 order mark again affirms the 787's status as the fastest selling commercial aircraft in history. The order, when officially announced by Boeing and Saudi Arabian, is expected to bring the 787 firm order total to 908.

UPDATE: Saudi Arabian Airlines indicated that the order would come from a combination of leased and purchased aircraft. No lessor was specified. Though Boeing needs just four newly purchased 787s to pass 900 orders. The order total currently stands at 896.