How much fuel would be saved by introducing a new single aisle successor two years early?
Volker Gollnick, head of the air transport concepts and technology evaluation institute at DLR, the German Aerospace Centre, reckons he knows the answer: 22 million tonnes over 25 years.
Speaking at the recent Aviation and Environment Summit, Gollnick told delegates that the introduction of a new A320 or Boeing 737 aircraft two years early - albeit with a little less advanced technology on board - could decouple the fuel consumption associated with the expected three per cent growth in the aircraft type within the global fleet.
Using 2008 as a baseline, the early introduction in 2014 rather than 2016, could save 22 million tonnes of kerosene over 25 years
"This is something whose potential we should keep in mind when we talk about the introduction of new aircraft and new technology into the world fleet. There is the real potential to be earlier in producing new kinds of aircraft," he says.
"So product innovation has good potential to improve the economical efficiency of the world fleet. If we tried to develop the global picture of this vision, the decoupling of world narrowbody fleet growth in terms of fuel burn reduction in early introduction could really contribute to the entire reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. It is a great opportunity to come closer to the goals we have formulated in terms of the ACARE goals."
Watch the video here in tandem with his slide presentation.
The gloom surrounding the airline industry has certainly not relieved the pressure on Airbus and Boeing to progress their narrowbody succession plans.
In fact, early introduction of the next generation narrowbody is becoming a serious issue with major airline groups such as Air Canada and SAS admitting they are examining Bombardier's CSeries as they start to seek replacements for their short-haul fleets.
Airlines have emissions targets themselves and are probably more ambitious in their vision than either Airbus and Boeing.
Last year, SAS launched an ambitious strategy, targeting a 20% reduction in its total carbon dioxide emissions by 2020. This goal assumes annual passenger growth of 4%, coupled with savings stemming evenly from technological developments - such as alternative fuels, next-generation aircraft and engines - and operational measures.
But now SAS, which styles itself as "the world's most environmentally conscious airline", says it may have to revise its climate-based fleet strategy since both Airbus and Boeing have pushed back their single-aisle successor timelines to the back end of the next decade.
KLM chief executive Peter Hartman also recently urged the two rival airframers to clarify their single-aisle replacement strategies,



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