The Woracle

What does Bombardier's tie-up with China's AVIC I on development a stretched version of the ARJ21 regional jet mean for the CSeries? Good news - perhaps. By linking with the Chinese on the 105-seat ARJ21-900, the Canadian manufacturer could buy itself time to do a better job its own 110- to 130-seat airliner. It also secures a partner in market that could prove huge for the CSeries - if it is ever developed.

The CSeries is Bombardier's second attempt at breaking into the 100-seat-plus market. Its 80- to 120-seat BRJ-X was shelved in 2000 in favour of stretching the CRJ700 into the CRJ900. Hindsight suggests the five-abreast BRJ-X would have struggled to be competitive with Embraer's four-abreast E-170/190 family, and Bombardier has wrestled with similar issues in defining a marketable CSeries.

The issue is technology, and the rapid changes now under way. Design of the CSeries was begun before Boeing raised the bar on composites use and overnight raised airlines' expectations on efficiency. As it has held off launching the CSeries, Bombardier has updated the design, switching to a composite wing and flirting with a composite fuselage to reduce weight.

But its biggest problem remains finding an engine. And here the delays might help.

As the hours tick down to the "reveal", the world's press is full of stories about the 787. These include MarketWatch's whackily titled "Boeing 787 Dreamliner set for flightless debut" to the informed "How the 787 'Dream' was born" by the Seattle Post-Intelligencer's Boeing-watcher James Wallace.

In telling the story of how Boeing switched horses from the high-speed Sonic Cruiser to the super-efficient 7E7, Wallace reminds us of the key roles played not only by Alan Mulally and Mike Bair, but by veteran Boeing engineers Walt Gillette and John Roundhill - both now retired.

"Boeing would be a different company today if it had launched any of the aircraft that were proposed before the 787." I was almost certainly guilty of editorialising when I wrote that in Flight International's 10 July issue, but I believe I can support the statement.

Few could dispute that Boeing has changed over the past 10 years, but what changed it most? Airbus? The McDonnell Douglas merger? September 11? Ethics scandals? Any one would have been enough. Instead they all happened.

Forces that morphed the Sonic Cruiser into the 787 changed Boeing

Bloomberg is reporting that Embraer could challenge Airbus and Boeing in the single-aisle airliner market, but not before the middle of next decade. It quotes new chief executive Fred Curado as saying it would take new engine technology and "a huge change" in the dynamics of the market, but he does not rule a new large Embraer airliner.

Engine technology is clearly the key to what happens next in this market. Airbus and Boeing are edging back their next-generation narrowbodies to around 2015 to capture as much new technology as possible, and Bombardier's repeated failures to launch the CSeries have positioned the 110/130-seater to be first to benefit from new ultra-high-bypass engines - if it gets the go-ahead next year for entry into service in 2013.

Is Embraer leaving it too late?

Embraer's E-Jets: as big as it gets - for now

Not exactly a surprise, but Bombardier has announced it is working exclusively with Pratt & Whitney to power its CSeries airliner with the Geared Turbofan. The GTF has already been selected to power the Mitsubishi Regional Jet. Neither aircraft has been launched yet, but if they are Pratt will find itself developing two sizes of GTF simultaneously: 17,000-19,000lb thrust for the MRJ and 23,000lb for the CSeries.

And the larger of those two engines is going to look a lot like the engine Pratt would offer for the next generation of Airbus and Boeing singe-aisle airliner. As Pratt continues to say its preferred route to market for the next-gen narrowbody is via International Aero Engines, a GTF launch on the CSeries is going to make for some interesting conversations with its V2500 partners.

And while we have all given Bombardier a hard time for its indecision on the CSeries, the market might just be on its side this time. With more airlines calling for a new generation of narrowbody, an environment-friendly 110- to 130-seater available in 2013 might just attract some buyers unwilling to wait another five years for a new Airbus or Boeing.