The Woracle

Lockheed has posted this new video on youtube, entitled "F-22: Operational, Relevant, Revolutionary". I don't remember relevant as being one of the defining characteristics of a fifth-generation fighter, but maybe it needs to be. After all, US defence secretary Robert Gates did a pretty good job of damning the F-22 with faint praise last week when he told Congress:

"The reality is we are fighting two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the F-22 has not performed a single mission in either theatre. So it is principally for use against a near peer in a conflict, and I think we all know who that is. And looking at what I regard as the level of risk of conflict with one of those near peers over the next four or five years, until the Joint Strike Fighter comes along, I think that something along the lines of 183 is a reasonable buy."

The US Air Force wants 381 Raptors, but Gates and his deputy Gordon England think somewhere around 183 is the right number. "My concern is that the F-22 is $140 million a copy and the Joint Strike Fighter will be about half that, about $77 million a copy. And so my worry is that if the F-22 production is expanded, that it will come at the expense of the Joint Strike Fighter," Gates told Congress.

Sensible words, I think. Meanwhile my colleague Steve Trimble over the The DEW Line is taking a closer look at those questioning Gordon England's motives in trying to kill the F-22...

It's been a contentious week in the US fifth-generation fighter business, with the Department of Defense and US Air Force taking diametrically opposed positions on whether more F-22s are needed. The DoD has made clear it thinks 183 F-22s are enough (plus another 4 in the FY09 war supplemental). The USAF is adamant it needs 381, and can find a way to pay for them.

Steve Trimble over on The DEW Line calculates, at $150 million a copy, it will cost the USAF almost $30 billion to buy the Raptors it wants. That money will have to come from other programmes - and the DoD's fear is it will come from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which is intended not only for the Air Force, but also the Navy and Marine Corps (not to mention lots of US allies!).

Raptor - endangered species?

It emerged during the week that the DoD sees the F-35, and not the F-22, as the likely replacement for any F-15s that have to be retired because of structural problems. Quite a turn-around given the F-22 was designed to replace the "high" F-15 and the F-35 the 'low" F-16. The USAF disagrees, of course, but the argument casts the DoD's opinion of the JSF's capability in an interesting light.

Here are some of the competing statements made over the past week:

On the eve of its annual winter get-together in Orlando, the US Air Force has finally cleared all of its much-grounded, much-inspected, much-speculated-about F-15s to return to flight. All bar the nine out of some 440 A- to D-model Eagles found to have the same longeron cracks that caused an F-15 to break up in flight in early November.

The USAF argues it was justified on safety grounds in keeping the Eagles grounded for so long, although it has finally released even those with suspect longerons for flight without repair, without restrictions and with only the requirement for recurrent checks every 400h (provided they pass one last inspection).

Safety is essential, and the USAF has lost three F-15s since they began returning to flight in January - two on 19 February when they collided over the Gulf of Mexico - none of them to structural failure. But it's hard to shake the belief the Air Force stretched this grounding out to make a point about its aging fleet, and its need for more F-22s to replace the F-15s.

On that very subject, the USAF has been forced to disavow the recent comments of a senior officer who said what many believe to be true - that the Air Force will get its 380 Raptors by hook or by crook. "The Air Force wholeheartedly supports the President's budget request for the F-22 program," the statement says.

Well no surprise there, because what that budget request does is not close the F-22 line, so leaving the decision on whether to buy more to Congress and the next Administration. But the statement also says: "The Air Force and the DoD share the same desired end state." Well the DoD's idea of an end state seems clear - 187 Raptors.

Interesting what you find when you are looking for something else. Like what the US Air Force has in mind for the F-22, whether or not it gets more aircraft. Daniel Darnell, USAF deputy chief of staff air, space and information operations, plans and requirements, lays it out succinctly in recent testimony to Congress.

Shutdown of the F-22 production line will begin in November as vendors early in the build process complete delivery of components for the 183 aircraft currently planned. The USAF expects to issue a shutdown RFP this summer, he says, and to incur $40m in shutdown costs in fiscal year 2009 (the budget now being debated). Darnell also puts a cost on keeping the line open:

"If we want to keep the line open and deliver an additional F-22 lot, then the Air Force would require $595.6m in FY09 for advance procurement of 24 aircraft. In either case, we are at a critical crossroad: we must make a decision by November to avoid increased costs and a break in the production line before our suppliers begin to exit the market."

Into the less than clear blue yonder (USAF photo)

Even if it stops at 183 aircraft (the USAF wants 381), Darnell makes clear the Raptor will continue to evolve:

"The Air Force has accepted 113 F-22A aircraft to date, out of a programmed delivery of 183. Most of these aircraft include the Increment 2 upgrade, which provides the ability to employ supersonic JDAM and enhances the intra-flight datalink to provide connectivity with additional F-22s. The F-22A fleet will be upgraded under the JROC-approved Increment 3 upgrade designed to enhance both air-to-air and precision ground-attack capability.

"The Increment 3.3 upgrade is currently unfunded. It plans to include Mode 5/S, which is the next generation identification friend or foe and advanced air-traffic control transponder; radar auto search/auto detect, which gives automated target cueing using fourth-generation AESA radar; and a ground moving-target indicator and tracking capability."