So next month we finally get to find out who will inherit the $175 million (or some of it) left behind by Rocketplane-Kistler's departure last year from NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) demonstration programme
According to Hobbyspace.com Space News has already named the finalists for NASA's exploration systems mission directorate's (ESMD) "prize" and they are Spacehab, Andrews Space, Orbital Sciences and PlanetSpace
Before all that happened I spoke to Planetspace and Spacehab, both of whom are working with Lockheed Martin
Find Chair Force Engineer's view on the PlanetSpace/Lockheed/Alliant Techsystems (ATK) proposal here
My personal view is that at this stage, whomever wins the ESMD phase one SAA, what really matters is who wins NASA's space operations mission directorate's (SOMD) International Space Station resupply contract that it will place this year
International Space Station resupply is needed from late 2010, depending on when Shuttle is retired. Any one can apply for the SOMD contract so really this ESMD phase one SAA is a red herring
Yes, winning the SAA and successfully completing its milestones to receive NASA funding will not count against you but the SOMD contract is to be placed THIS year. If the contract is placed before Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX)'s fourth quarter launch of its Falcon 9 rocket none of the likely bidders will have demonstrated any of the proposed COTS launch systems
Because of the use of proven Lockheed Martin and ATK rocket systems for Spacehab's and Planetspace's proposals I think these bids, even if they don't win the ESMD SAA, have just as good a chance at winig the SOMD contract
It won't be easy. It is going to be extremely difficult for anyone to beat SpaceX and win SOMD's ISS resupply contract because much of the hardware used for Falcon 9 has already been test flown with Falcon 1, and the Merlin 1C will fly this April, if all goes according to plan, and SpaceX's COTS milestones have all been successfull as far as we know and they have included COTS programme flight reviews
If anyone thinks I'm wrong, don't hold back
I think the likely scenario for any possible competitor to win the SOMD contract, when they haven't already won an ESMD SAA, is that SpaceX would have to fail in its SOMD resupply contract demonstration mission several times before another contractor was considered
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