January 2010 Archives

The Manchester, UK based-Museum of Science & Industry has teamed with the University of Manchester to exhibit a history of China's aerospace development including that country's space programme. Its press release says:

"[The University of Manchester] has worked with the Confucius Institute to develop partnership arrangements with a number of science-based organisations in China, and The China Space Programme Exhibition is a result of this."

but don't worry you appear to have plenty of time, even if you're visiting the UK from overseas 

The China Space Programme, which runs from 30 January to 7 August 2010 in [Museum of Science & Industry's] Air & Space Hall, includes models of ancient rockets, as well as recent satellites (including the Donfanghong series), rockets (including the Long March series), space ships and a lunar rover.

This is going way off my normal topic territory so I'll keep it brief but the comments on the blogosphere have piqued my interest in Congressional calculations and what it could mean for Obama's alleged attempts to can the Constellation programme

I guess it is pretty clear that the only members of Congress with a very strong interest in NASA's budget and Constellation in particular are those with districts that have voters employed by the space agency and its contractors

Considering how NASA repeatedly fails to get any significant Congressional support for its programmes - president George W. Bush's failure to get the budget increases he wanted when his party controlled Congress being a big example - it is this blogger's guess that the recent statements from politicians opposing the Obama spaceflight vision will see no follow through and no successful challenge

Clark Lindsey made a good point about "small government" (my words not Clark's) Republicans paradoxically voting in favour of a multi-billion dollar government programme and against something you would imagine they would support - privatisation of low Earth orbit access. So what would make Republicans do that?

Why would the Republican party decide to fight the Obama administration on the NASA battelfield when they can continue focusing on healthcare? It is a question I leave to the US bloggers out there who will be able to make the Congressional calculation better than this subject of a former colonial power

But if the Ares rockets are to be saved by Congress then I would imagine the Republican party leadership will have to decide to collaborate with their objective Democratic allies on the spaceflight issue and Fox news will be at the tip of the spear for that fight

credit: EADS Astrium / caption: this is from Astrium's previous work on ESA transportation studies

The European Space Agency is to fund parallel industrial studies to examine how ESA can contribute to international human space exploration over the next 20 years with particular focus on risks, life cycle costs, enabling technologies and "strategic value". The total worth of the industrial work will be more than €500,000 ($699,000)

Bids have to be in by 8 March and the studies have to be completed by the end of 2010, beginning of 2011. In late 2011 ESA's member states will make major decisions on Europe's rocket and Automated Transfer Vehicle development

Go through to the extended portion of this blog post to read the study abstract and find the link to the study's ESA procurement webpage

Edward Crawley
Maria T. Zuber
James Garvin
Richard Garriott
Erika Wagner
David Thompson
James Crocker

June 11, 2009

Running Time: 1:39:22

Google alerted this blog to this video. Why it only appeared today when the lecture took place last June I don't know but just in case this is a web debut, enjoy...

MIT's web page with the video says "From satellite-enabled radio and TV to climate tracking, space has become a "ubiquitous capability in our lifetime," as Edward Crawley puts it. But he also notes there is uncertainty about the future of U.S. spaceflight, which closely follows the "cadence" of political elections. Symposium panelists both predict and suggest directions the nation's public and private space programs might take."

NASA Space Shuttle programme office manager (and shuttle derived heavy lift vehicle proponent) John P. Shannon can feel warm and fuzzy inside today if this New York Times article's (link care of Jeff Foust) claim of an in-depth technical exploration study comes true

In June 2009 Shannon speculated in an interview with this blog that the Review of US human spaceflight plans could result in a further study. In the same blog post this blogger pondered on the implications for the Constellation programme's Ares I crew launch vehicle and even used the word propinquity

A post-Augustine technical investigation could, paradoxically, ensure Ares I wins by default because by the time any such study concluded the maturity of the crew launch vehicle design and propinquity of the 2015 target date could close the book on other proposals

Media coverage of a new European rocket increasingly referred to as Ariane 6 is slowly building momentum. Much of this slow burn excitement is due to the belief that the new launcher will replace the continent's workhorse, Ariane 5. But it is likely it won't

The European Space Agency's effort to develop the Next Generation Launcher (NGL), to give Ariane 6 its official name, is the Future Launcher Preparatory Programme. Its web page says

eventually a next generation of launcher will be required to respond to Europe's future space access needs in the same way the Ariane 5 succeeded the Ariane 4.

This has been an assumption, or even informed view, of many within the spaceflight industry, media included, but this blog thinks that the reality is somewhat different. NGL/Ariane 6 will in fact replace the Samara Space Centre Soyuz-2 booster

NASA is to investigate a VASIMR propelled lunar tug concept according to a procurement synopsis it published last week. The video above can be found here along with other videos about the tug concept. The NASA synopsis says:

Studies will be conducted to evaluate a Lunar Tug concept utilizing Variable Specific Impulse Magneto-plasma Rocket (VASIMR) engine capabilities from Low Earth Orbit to Lunar Orbit and libration points.

The VASIMR was conceived by former NASA astronaut Franklin Chang Díaz and developed through his Ad Astra Rocket company. Chang Diaz's company and Houston, Texas based-MEI Technologies released a press release last week qouting MEI's chief executive Ed Muñiz saying:

"Ad Astra's impressive technology coupled with our payload integration capabilities will ultimately result in innovative cargo and supply mechanisms, greater access to resources and broader support for robotic and human missions in space," [emphasis added]

The text above, italicised by this blog, indicated something interesting was going on. Hyperbola is still waiting for a response to its request for an interview. New propulsion technologies have been mentioned by NASA administrator Charles Bolden as a focus for the space agency

Following Space Exploration Technologies' Elon Musk's salvo the Commercial Spaceflight Federation has also responded to the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel comments on commercial launch providers:

Since the ASAP correctly points out that NASA has not yet developed standards and processes for human-rating commercial vehicles, the Commercial Spaceflight Federation disagrees with ASAP's implication that safety will be compromised because "no COTS manufacturer is currently HRR qualified," because, quite simply, it is impossible for companies to meet standards that do not currently exist.

 

Is this going to see the big new vision annoucement?

The State of the Agency: NASA Future Programs Presentation   Sponsored by the NASA Alumni League with support from the AAS, AIAA and WIA   Friday, February 12, 2010 James E. Webb Auditorium NASA Headquarters   You are invited to a one-day presentation on the status of NASA's current and proposed programs.  The program will feature an overview by NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, followed by presentations from NASA Mission Directorates and staff offices. Time will be allotted for Q&A. The session will conclude with a dialogue between Administrator Bolden and former Administrator Jim Beggs, the current Chairman of the NASA Alumni League.   Registration:  7:30 - 8:00 am Program Start:  8:00 am Lunch: 11:30 am - 12:30 pm (on your own) Program Conclusion:  5:00 pm

as we await the outcome of the space innovation and growth team (aka Space IGT) report that is to set out a 20-year vision for the UK spaceflight industry

To be published on 10 February Hyperbola hears it could contain a goal of creating 100,000 jobs by 2020. A hundred thousand I hear you cry!

Is this some super ambitious UK version of NASA's Constellation programme? No, that is 100,000 jobs in both the upstream, i.e. satellite and ground segment manufacturers, and downsteam, i.e. space based service companies, sectors

Downstream space based service companies I hear you ask? Yes the UK space "industry" is a wide enough definition that service providers are included. And that is where most of those jobs will be created

If you weren't able to make it, yesterday (19 January) saw the one-day (we only need one) A New Space Age for Britain: The Future of Britain's Space Economy event held by Inside Government in central London. This is where Hyperbola heard about such dramatic developments as 100,000 job goals and more

As the first week of February edges closer it would seem that the fiscal year 2011 NASA budget request, which all and sundry expected to reveal the new US human spaceflight vision, will do no such thing

This re-tweeted tweet care of the well informed Jeff Foust and this article in The Huntsville Times suggest that like the FY2010 budget, and its Review of US human spaceflight plans, the new spaceflight vision will be part of a second appropriations submission to Congress. In the FY2010 summary on page EXP-2 it said:

*Following the human spaceflight review, the Administration will provide an updated request for Exploration activities reflecting the review's results. FY 2010 and outyear funding levels for Exploration activities shown here represent the budget request if there were no changes to ongoing activities.

Oh well that didn't happen. This time around, rather than following anymore reviews, its probable that the "updated request" for FY2011 will come after that Congressional debate required for canning the Constellation programme - assuming the deliberations result in that

Hyperbola got the distinct feeling that this process could take a lot longer than anyone expected way back in October after a chat with NASA administrator Charles Bolden in Korea

credit: EADS Astrium / caption: The European Space Agency's Automated Transfer Vehicle  2 undergoing asembly at an EADS Astrium facility

Florida Today's interview with the state's Senator Bill Nelson and other politicians seems to have uncovered the core of what the new US human spaceflight vision will likely be

It sounds a bit like the Review of US human space flight plans' option 4A but there are some pretty odd aspects to it. An extra billion dollars is not going to buy you much for starters

And that extra billion is not even news. In the updated (so it says) FY2010 budget request there is an extra billion for Ares I crew launch vehicle in the FY2011 column and then that slumps back by a billion for FY2012

For the less constrained budget option the Review's report spoke of an extra $3 billion in real terms by 2014. One billion extra dollars from October 2010 will have to be followed by increases well above a billion in each of the next two fiscal years to match that original Review report real term increase estimate

With this extra billion NASA will apparently "accelerate" the development of a Saturn V class, or is that Ares V lite, booster. How they will do that is going to be interesting. Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne told me last year that work on the Ares V core stage engine, the RS-68B, had not even begun. And as the Review's report states on page 59:

Further, as the Shuttle and ISS programs are terminated, a significant percentage of NASA's fixed costs will transition to Constellation. The Committee has found that not all of those costs have been accounted for in the Constellation budget plan.

So what proportion of the $3 billion Space Shuttle Programme budget is actually saved to fund this booster acceleration, and the climate change related science projects and the improved aeronautics research and wasn't there a $5 billion commercial crew competition mentioned somewhere by the Review(?)

And it is hard to see how flight tests using the Ares I first stage in the 2012 time frame will help a Shuttle workforce that has been needed to service three reusable spaceplanes being used over an average of five flights per year every year with all the accompanying infrastructure to be maintained that goes with it

If you're going to spend $2 billion on a five segment solid rocket booster in FY2011 then you might want to start by fixing the parachute problem for one, assuming the new Saturn V class booster will bother to reuse its SRBs. Not reusing them was an option for boosting Ares V cargo launch vehicle performance

But the oddest statement in the Florida Today article is the one about Shuttle...

EADS Astrium has announced that ATV-2 Johannes Kepler is undergoing flightworthiness and functionality tests. Its press release says:

"Johannes Kepler", the second unmanned European cargo spacecraft for the International Space Station (ISS), is currently undergoing its first flightworthiness and functionality tests as a fully integrated unit at the Astrium facility in Bremen. Preparations for the final system tests are running at full capacity. The delivery date for "Johannes Kepler" has been slated for November 2010. On behalf of the European Space Agency (ESA), Astrium is responsible for both the development and production of the ATVs. The production of ATV units two to five, as well as mission preparation and operations support, is covered by the contract which governs the operation and provision of European components to the ISS. Astrium is responsible for carrying out these activities on behalf of ESA.

Go here for Hyperbola's exclusive video of ATV-2 under construction. This blog still thinks Kurd Lasswitz is a good name 

India is to have two new cosmonauts flown on a Russian Energia Soyuz TMA spacecraft in 2013 under an agreement between the two countries

The Russian Federal Space Agency (aka Roscosmos) confirmed to Hyperbola other media reports of the done deal that comes six months after the agency's head Anatoly Perminov spoke at the Paris air show about discussions for such a flight

The flight sounds like Space Adventures' proposed private Soyuz trip to the International Space Station but the Indian mission would not go to the ISS. Roscosmos' head of human space missions directorate Alexey Krasnov told this blogger at the 60th International Astronautical Congress in Korea that the private launch could not occur for up to five-years because the flight engineer, who would not be on the two tourist flight, has a role to play in spacecraft operations. With cosmonaut training the Indian personnel would be able to carry out that engineer function

The Russian Federal Space Agency (aka Roscosmos) has told Hyperbola that it is getting 70 million Rubles for the nuclear rocket project that will see tests in 2015

With a draft design to be completed in 2012 the agency says production of the rocket engine, not identified as nuclear thermal or nuclear electric, could occur in 2018. One assumes the 2015 tests will be in-space tests if production begins in 2018

Other media reports give the study a $17 million (502 million Rubles) price tag, this could include funds for the state owned nuclear corporation that is reported to be involved. Roscosmos did not mention the nuclear company in its response to Hyperbola

Roscosmos told Hyperbola: "The study is done by Keldysh center, which is one of the leading research and development companies dealing with rocket engine development."

S P Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation Energia will complete the preliminary design phase for the Advanced Crew Vehicle (ACV) this year according to a report on its website

The report is about Energia general designer Vitalii Alexandrovich Lopota's summation of what the company did in 2009 and what it will do in 2010

Previously it had been known that the "draft design phase" for ACV, which will replace Energia's Soyuz TMA, would be completed by late 2010

credit: EADS Astrium / caption: Starting this year the Oriane-Ariane launch systems could be ready by 2019

NASA's Orion crew exploration vehicle (CEV) could be launched by the latest version of Europe's EADS Astrium Ariane 5 rocket by 2019 according to a French government funded study. The Ariane 5 Mid-Life Evolution (ME) variant, planned to begin operations by 2017, is capable of launching Orion for its missions to the International Space Station and the Moon

Not the famous astronomer but the European Union flagship project that will deliver space based navigation services, at some point in the future and at some unknown price tag and that's official

Today European Commissioner for transport Antonio Tajani announced (find the video here) at the midday briefing that German company OHB System had won a €566 million ($811 million) contract for 14 spacecraft but only announced €397 million worth of launch contracts with Arianespace for orbiting ten satellites and admitted he did not know what the overall project's final price tag would be

The original price for Galileo was estimated at €3.4 billion but the years of delays, the rise and catastrophic fall of the public private partnership model and other problems too numerous to mention here - Ariane 5's inability to launch more than three (or maybe four depending on who tells you) Galileo spacecraft - all point to a programme that has been neck deep in trouble

The EC press officer for transport told this blogger that there was no date for the purchase of the remaining six or more satellites needed to provide a minimum worldwide service though negotiations for bids would begin later this year

Twenty four spacecraft are needed to cover the globe so with the 14 ordered plus the four "In-Orbit Validation" birds already being built by EADS Astrium and the remaining notional six you get the 24. But you also need on-orbit spares to ensure continuity of service so the second contract could be for eight or more

What this means is that despite the claim today of a 2014 operational date that can only be for a partial service and it certainly won't include the safety of life service that aerospace users need...

So 2010 begins with delays for two high profile projects on either side of the Atlantic ocean. NASA's Commercial Crew Development initiative still has no announcement about the awarding of its $50 million and the European Union's much delayed satellite navigation system Galileo still has no space segment contract