In response to Buzz Aldrin's article in the Wall Street Journal Burt Rutan has circulated the following:
This sounds fine thru the lens of my friend Buzz Aldrin. However, the reality is that the new plan has no schedules, no $ and no programs to build government hardware for ANY future manned spaceflight activity.
In 1962 we contracted North American to develop the Apollo spacecraft before we had even decided that we would need to do LOR (lunar orbit rendezvous). It was another 3+ years before rendezvous was demonstrated in earth orbit! We boldly moved forward with the assumption that the technology would be there. In contrast, NASA has, for the last 2 decades shown that they can burn thru hundreds of billions of $ without flying anything new. The new plan almost guarantees another decade or two of the same behavior.
Many believe that failure of a research technology initiative is defined only by its test data or by its accident record. However, most Government 'research' programs fail in another way - spending all the $ and over-running the schedule before even having the courage to do the testing of the new, poorly-understood ideas.This new NASA plan will not have good optics for Americans over the next decade or two as the exploration (i.e. above low earth orbit) activity will be done by our adversaries while we look on and rerun the old films of Apollo. Buzz will continue to be our hero, but our youth may yearn to move to where the action is.Burt
on February 27, 2010 12:18 AM | Reply
"However, the reality is that the new plan has no schedules"
No schedules. So far no synergy to unite the commercial efforts, plus the gap(s) looms ahead. There are two gaps. We have been enduring an inspirational gap since Gene Ceran stepped off the moon back in 1972. LEO offers little in the way of youthful inspiration. This gap has been ongoing since 1972 and appears to be destined to continue for another 20 plus years. The second USA manned launch gap similar the one experienced in the late seventies will only add to the boredom. Our youth will seek other interest. A mars goal of 20 plus years is too remote and vague to offer any inspiration. Then most glaring and demeaning news of all is the resurrection of the capsule "splash down" concept.
So it appears a capsule is the best new space has to offer? We are supposed to open the gateway to LEO with splash down capsules? I expected capsules from the LEO, ISS fat and bloated NASA. But not from lean and innovative competitive inspired commercial new space genre. Yes NASA needed a kick in the pants and a top down shake-up and a commercial focus. But this flex thing seems to have done little other to than to stir up a lot of KOAS with a far and distant vague goal of Mars. Hopefully some commercial cream will rise to the top admsit all this KAOS. Hopefully we will see something more impressive than capsules. Hopefully a free lance company will circumvent the flex thing and shoot the moon.
As for LEO research NASA has plowed millions into it for the past forty years. We have mountains of white papers, AIAA, SBIR, STTR, etc... Studies and concepts. Like we need more Why not dust off a couple of those white paper, CGI, PPT. concepts and actually build some hardware and go somewhere with it? This Flex sounds like rerun of the past forty LEO years.
The goal must be 10 years or less to be taken seriously. The mars goal while a worthy one is to far removed and vague we need something much more tangible...like the moon. The moon is a visible goal which can be seen daily in the sky. The moon continually beckons. I must side with Burt on this one. Go-for–it Bigelow shoot the moon!
on February 27, 2010 1:38 AM | Reply
Agree with Rutan. NASA has been broken for a long time and in just the ways he describes. Now, instead of the boldness that once characterized our aerospace efforts, we have rampant careerism and timidity. Where is the energy that once defined us from the X-1 to Apollo? Where are the Americans?
on February 27, 2010 4:42 AM | Reply
Zero plans.
Zero schedule.
Zero commitment.
Zero results.
on February 27, 2010 6:02 AM | Reply
Burt Rutan is one person truly deserving of solid respect, even more so than everyone's best friend Buzzy Buzz.
Next step for Scaled Composites? How about Waverider scramjets?
on February 27, 2010 1:25 PM | Reply
The main issue is MONEY. If Congress doesn't give a damn, what is left for Nasa? Budget cuts and doubts whether it will find financial back up at times a project doesn't seem to go the way it should go has robbed Nasa of self confidence. Remember X33? Those lithium tanks needed to be tested AND tested. But sadly it failed right at the beginning while processing. With enough money at hand this would have been a serious but still solvable problem. This was not the case so going for antique solutions is what remains. Sadly the influence of political correctness has had a detrimental effect on what is done and what is not done. Obama is the epitome of this development so Moon and Mars are not done. Well, still three years to go and maybe seven if the American people allow it.
on February 28, 2010 3:18 PM | Reply
Governments can make going to the moon and mars seem like an impossible dream. What really gets me is we were "willing" to do it when we didn't even know how we were going to do it, and we made it in eight years.
Today government time tables are crazy stupid (yes! moon by 2020. oops! sorry can't do that know, maybe 4040?). Oh no, now mars will never happen in my life time.
On the other hand people like Robert Zubrin "mars direct" lets do it in under 10 years or Elon mars by 2020.
Good thing we have some optimistic people out there.