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Flightglobal Hyperbola previously noted the danger of the Royal Navy having just a two large aircraft carriers given that the new Queen Elizabeth-class may be vulnerable to a new type of satellite-directed ballistic anti-ship missile (e.g. China's DF-21D).  Nevertheless, we did point out that in deciding to change back to the STOVL version of the F-35 strike fighter, the F-35B, the Royal Navy could, at least, spread these fighters around other suitable ships acting as  "mini-carriers" to reduce its risk of losing all of them in a single missile or a submarine torpedo attack.

Now it seems, the US Navy, or at least some of its more enlightened officers, have also woken up to the danger of "putting all their eggs in one basket", or rather, putting all their aircraft on just a few supercarriers.  Naval strategy expert Captain Henry J Hendrix, USN, has written a report for the influential Center for New American Security, suggesting that a using a greater number of smaller cheaper aircraft carriers flying both manned aircraft and UCAVs (Unmanned Air Combat Vehicles), supplemented by ship and submarine-launched cruise missiles, would be militarily preferable and more cost effective than using just a few very expensive supercarriers.  See the report here: :http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS%20Carrier_Hendrix_FINAL.pdf

The death of former UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher has prompted much debate regarding her achievements and mistakes. But what effect did the "Iron Lady" have on Britain's space effort?

Thatcher's record on space was mixed. As a chemistry graduate she was known to have an interest in science. However, she and her ministers refused to openly support a UK space programme, apart from a small contribution to the European Space Agency (ESA).  Nevertheless, the Thatcher administration's business- and enterprise-friendly macroeconomic policies allowed the space business to flourish, with UK expertise coming to the fore in satellite manufacture, satellite communications, scientific instrumentation, and in the space-related business areas of finance and space insurance.
 
Thatcher, of course, benefited from Skynet/SCOT satellite communications during victory in the Falklands War in 1982. And it emerged that others had been monitoring the conflict's progress. According to the Flightglobal/Ascend database, in late April and early May there had been a burst of launches of Soviet electronic intelligence and reconnaissance satellites.

Satellite observations also affected some of Thatcher's other policies. Observations taken by satellites later influenced her decision to push for a ban on CFC (chlorofluorocarbon) refrigerants.

Having no interest in getting Britain involved in manned spaceflight, the Thatcher government made sure it had nothing to do with the International Space Station. While this decision was decried by space supporters in the UK, this later turned out to be a wise choice when it became clear that it was becoming a major funding drain for all its participants.

Less wisely, having participated in the European Space Agency's Ariane 1-4 rocket programmes, the UK government decided to withdraw from the development of the Ariane 5 expendable launch vehicle. This effectively ended large-scale rocket engineering in the UK (small-scale spacecraft propulsion research still exists). There was brief excitement as British Aerospace declared an interest in building an air-breathing rocket plane design called HOTOL. However, this came to nothing, leaving just a few of its engineers to keep the embers alive via the later and still-nascent Skylon* design.

Governments since the Thatcher-era have taken a more positive line on space research and have increased funding to UK space. Likewise, knowing that the glamorous side of spaceflight can increase the number of students wanting to study science and engineering, they have also taken the plunge into the NASA-led plans for manned exploration of the solar system via a contribution to the joint NASA/ESA Orion capsule programme.

*Note that the writer of this piece has a small shareholding in Reaction Engines Limited which is attempting to develop technologies for Skylon.

While the actual war fighting intent of North Korea remains an enigma, its various "sabre-rattling" threats to conduct a nuclear first strike on neighbouring countries and US bases in the region is being taken seriously, especially in the light of Japanese media reports that satellites have observed long range or medium range ballistic missiles  being transported to the coastline of North Korea.

As such, while Japanese and US Aegis/Standard Missile SM-3 equipped naval destroyers and cruisers have already been deployed in the Sea of Japan, the US Department of Defense has also announced that it is to also deploy land-based THAAD missile intercepters to protect its bomber aircraft base in Guam.  Although North Korea is officiallly doubted to have yet managed to acquire the capability to hit mainland USA with nuclear weapons, it is believed to have the ballistic missile capability, via its Taepodong-2 missiles or newer KN-08 missiles, to hit the island of Guam and mainland Japan.

THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missiles are truck mounted and are specifically designed to defend against medium range ballistic missiles.  The US DOD has anounced that these missiles are deployed as a "precautionary move to strengthen our regional defense posture against the North Korean regional ballistic missile threat,"

While a recent US Air Flight B-2 Stealth bomber flight across South Korea was seen as provocative riposte to recent warlike declarations from North Korea, the US government has since tried to diffuse the situation by cancelling one of its own ballistic missile tests.  The government of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) had previously declared itself to be still at war with South Korea, that it would target US bases and cities with nuclear weapons in the event of war (including making a first strike), and has since warned all foreign embassies in its capital Pyongyang that it cannot be held responsible for the future safety of foreign diplomats.

Comment by David Todd:  It is thought that while North Korea may not want to begin an all out war with South Korea, Japan and USA, a demonstration of its military power may be imminent.  This may include a new nuclear weapons test and/or a ballistic missile flight.  The demonstration may combine the two, with a fission-class nuclear warhead being launched by a ballistic missile as part of such a weapons test.  Such a test would be in obvious breach of the international test ban on overground atmospheric nuclear explosions. Currently, only underground nuclear weapons testing is allowed.

The review for the TV Movie The Challenger can be found here.

 

For those of you that may have missed a day or two of our space coverage, Flightglobal provides Space e-newsletter which lists the most important stories drawn from our main news and Hyperbola web pages during the past month.  Click on the link below to see the March 2013 edition.

http://epidm.edgesuite.net/RBI/aerospace/FGINT/2013/html/FGINT_20130312.html

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Internet billionaire and space aficionado, Jeff Bezos, who plans to run a space transportation operation via his Blue Origin outfit, has just been congratulated by NASA's Administrator Maj.Gen Charles Bolden for a more historical endeavour.   Specifically, Bezos and his team of salvagers have managed to bring two Saturn V F-1 first stage rocket engines that were launched on a mission in the NASA Apollo programme.  The engines, rated at 1.5 million lb thrust, were broght to the surface.  

The full story is here: http://www.bezosexpeditions.com/updates.html

If you would like to arrange a meeting with the Flightglobal/Ascend space team at the Satellite 2013 conference in Washington D.C. or arrange a demonstration of our SpaceTrak or Space Review online data services, please get in touch with Ryanne Woltz: ryanne.woltz@ascendworldwide.com  Phone +1 917 971 4745

Aware that North Korea is much further advanced than Iran with its nuclear weapons programme (North Korea has fission-class nuclear weapons, Iran does not yet have them) and appreciating that North Korea is now verbally threatening the continental USA with nuclear war, US Defence Secretary, Chuck Hagel, has decided to suspend construction of a ballistic missile defence over Europe to defend against Iran's perceived ballistic missile threat, in favour of one countering North Korea's nascent internconintental ballistic missile (ICBMs) capability. 

In an announcement Chuck Hagel disclosed that this change will include the addition of 14 more interceptor missiles of the Ground-based Midcourse Defence (GMD) system to the 26 already located in silos at Fort Greely, Alaska.  A further four interceptor missiles are located at Vandenberg, Califormia.  The new interceptor missiles will be placed at Fort Greely by September 2017 and will cost an extra $1 billion presumably from funds redirected from the suspended Europe-based system.

Ground-based Midcourse Defence (GMD) system interceptor missile being emplaced in a silo at Fort Greely, Alaska. Courtesy: SMDC

For a short while there was hope in US diplomatic circles that the announcement would help relations with Russia which had long been opposed to US plans to deploy anti-ballistic missiles in Europe to protect the continent against Iranian ballistic missiles. Nevertheless, the announcement has been met with a cool reception from both Russian and China who realise that the new Alaska-based missiles will be able to intercept more of their own ballistic missiles in time of war.  Meantime, Iran's own ballistic missile and satellite launch vehicle programme is not going well.  The Iranian space programme is reported to have had a launch failure in February.

Russia was originally concerned that if interceptors had been located in Poland, they could have been used against their own medium-range and long-range ballistic missile systems.  Later, to try to appease Russia, and to lower the overall cost of deployment, these missiles were changed to the smaller less-capable (in terms of range) Standard Missile SM-3* design. 

*Standard Missile SM-3 missiles are already deployed against North Korea on Aegis-system-equipped cruisers and destroyers of the US and Japanese Navies. 

 

The planned undocking and return to Earth of the three-man Soyuz TMA-06M/ISS-32M spacecraft which is currently docked with the International Space Station, was delayed one day to 15 March due to poor weather (snow storm) at the planned landing site in Kazakhstan.  Such delays have happened before.  Soyuz TMA-13/ISS-17S was similarly delayed in April 2009.

The mystery change in the orbital parameters of a small Russian satellite have now have been explained: it was apparently caused by a debris strike and the debris came from a Chinese anti-satelltie missile test.  On 4 February, the Russian Institute for Precision Instrumenet Engineering reported that the 7.5kg BLITS (Ball Lens In The Space) passive laser reflector nanosatellite had had significantly changes to elements of its Sun-synchronous near-polar orbit, to its spin velocity and in is attitude and may have split into two tracked objects.  It was only after analysis by the Centre for Space Standards and Innovation that the change was traced to a debris strike which occured on 22 January 2013.   There remains doubt however about why the BLITS spacecraft only split into two parts rather than several pieces which is more usual after such a collision.  Meanwhile other sources note that the original debris cloud it was apparently struck by would have been too far away for such a collision to have occured.

 

Orbital tracks: courtesy Analytical Graphics Inc,

The original striking debris was a piece of the 750kg Fengyun 1C retired weather satellite which had been deliberately destroyed in a Chinese anti-satellite missile test on 11 January 2013. The test which resulted in a large space debris cloud caused international protest.

Debris strikes to spacecraft are relatively common and maybe becoming more so as the amount of space debris increases.  The first confirmed incident was to the French Cerise satellite which had its gravity gradient boom cut off by a collsion with an orbiting Ariane rocket third stage on 21 July 1996.  The most famous recent incident was on 10 Feb 2009 when the communications satellite, Iridium 33, was struck by a defunct military satellite Cosmos 2252 a collision which itsefl caused more space debris.