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In a similar vein to Europe's EGNOS satellite navigation overlay system, to improve the accuracy and availabilty of GPS navigation signals in Japan, the Cabinet Office of the Japanese government has announced that has planned a $525 million contract with the Japanese spacecraft manufacturer Mitsibushi to build three new satellites as part of its Quasi-Zenith programme. The three satellites will form a constelaltion of four with the first Quasi-Zenith (Mischibiki) satellite (QZS-1) which is already in orbit after being launched in 2010.  

Two of the L-band signal broadcasting satellites will be in inclined orbits with a third will be in a conventional geostationary orbit. All three satellites will be launched before 2018 and will will be operated by NEC Corp subsidiary 15 years under a $1.2 billion design and service contract.

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A Japanese H2A202 rocket successfullly launched two satellites for the Japanese Defence Agency from the Tanegashima launch site at 0440 on 27 January. The main payload on the launch was the IGS-4D radar carrying spacecraft which was built for Information Gathering Satellite (IGS) programme by Mitsubishi Electric Corp. The IGS-4D spacecraft's Synthetic Aperture Radar allows it to image the ground both at night and through clouds.  The launch of IGS-4D is thought to be especially relevant to monitoring developments in North Korea's nuclear and launch vehicle programmes.  The second spacecraft on board was the IGS Optical Demonstration spacecraft, which is testing technology to be used by future IGS spacecraft. 

Japan's unmanned freighter spacecraft, HTV-3, was successfully detached from the International Space Station as planned on 12 September at 1550 GMT .   However, shortly after detaching and gently moving away, the craft made an unexpected emergency retreat from the station - a mode of operation that is only supposed to kick in when the on-board systems indicate that the craft is in danger of striking the space station.   Engineers from the Japanese space agency JAXA are now investigating why this Abort Control Unit (ACU) procedure was triggered.   The craft is expected to be de-orbited after an engine firing at 0451 GMT on 14 September to a safe burn up re-entry, with any remainng debris planned to land in the Pacific.

Two years ago, the space team at the Ascend consultancy (now part of Flightglobal) did an analysis on which nation was likely to be the first to return men to the moon.   In the analysis notional odds were assigned to each which country as a measure of our estimation of which was the most likely to win this "race back to the moon."  The analysis was originally done during the slow news summer period (aka the "silly season") and published in the month of August 2010 as an interesting fill-in analysis piece.   Despite this, Ascend's space team performed the analysis seriously and we stand by the surprising conclusion that the Isle of Man was the fifth most likely "nation" to be first back to the moon.  

Here we revisit this analysis and examine each nation's progress in this "race" and there are signs that the Isle of Man has improved its chances of being first to get its astronauts and flag on the moon, or rather because other contenders have fallen away. 

The Manx flag may one day fly on the Moon - if only they can get there.  Courtesy: NASA (Image has been modified)

INTRODUCTION:  Big rockets, complex spacecraft, and (lots of) money needed for manned lunar return

Most space faring nations have realised that missions to Mars and asteroids remain distant prospects in terms of cost and practicality and that the Moon represents a much easier-to-achieve exploration starting point. 

Nevertheless, finances for all contenders remain tight (even for China) to the point that most of the nations and organisation involved in this race  only have budgets allowing them to produce the necessary elements for such a mission in sequence rather than in parallel. 

Interestingly, contenders appear to have prioritised these elements differently, working on some parts of a mission before others.  For a space faring nation/organisation to land astronauts/cosmonauts/taikonauts/cosmonauts on the moon, five major elements are usually regarded as being needed: 

1. A heavy-lift launch vehicle carrying 70 tonnes or more to low Earth orbit (LEO).

2. A manned capsule/service module and transfer stages for passage and return from lunar orbit.

3. A lunar landing/ascent craft to carry one or more astronauts to and from the lunar surface

4. Rendezvous, guidance and docking technology.

5. The political will and financial resources to develop the systems to accomplish this.

Which nation will reach a position to mount the first manned lunar landing return missions remains to be seen.  Below is the Flightglobal/Ascend's updated analysis of each nation's relative chance expressed in the form of racing odds.  Please note that Flightglobal is not bookmaker and does not have a gaming licence and  thus cannot actually take bets: 

USA:  Orion and SLS progress but NASA has no lunar lander or service module

After years of being kept in the operational cul-de-sac of low Earth orbit (LEO) by the Space Shuttle, and with manned lunar exploration fast approaching being lost to living memory (Update: sadly, since this article was first written first moonwalker,Neil Armstrong, has passed away), NASA has decided that it would cede launching of LEO manned spaceflights to the commercial sector, and, instead, become a deep space exploration agency.   

The first problem was where to go. While other destination targets had been considered (passing asteroids, Phobos, Mars etc.), NASA's exploration chief, Bill Gertenmaier, noted in a speech at the Space Ops conference in Stockholm, that the moon is most likely to be the prime target for NASA's exploration strategy.  His reasoning was that there was lack of opportunity to explore passing near Earth asteroids,while the relatively high energy levels adn time constraints needed for Mars/Phobos e or asteroid belt exploration would require more complicated missions.

The political perform deep space exploration actually lies within the US Senate rather than within the White House.  It was the Senate that insisted that the Obama administration and NASA commit to building a US heavy lift launch vehicle after detecting obfuscating delays from the Obama Administration.  The result was that the Space Launch System (SLS) was selected.  This evolvable design will be man rated with initial versions being capable of launching at least a 70 tonne payload into LEO.  Later versiosn would be developed to carry payloads of above 130 tonnes with intermediate levels of capability between those.

All versions are to use four 1.86MN (at sea level) liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen burning RS-25D/E Space Shuttle Main Engines in the main core stage.   The final Block II versions may use either advanced lightweight versions of its Solid Rocket Booster design or a new liquid fuel types possibly using derivatives of the 7.8MN Saturn V F-1 engine  

Progress on this new launch vehicle is planned to be  steady rather than spectacular with the first flight of the vehicle not due until December 2017.

Artist's cutaway illustration of Orion capsule - but it needs a service module and lunar lander if manned landings are to take place.   Courtesy: NASA

While the progress on SLS is steady, and Orion capsule is good, less sure is the supply of a suitable service module.  It has been mooted that the European Space Agency might supply this based on a reconfigured ATV cargo craft. 

While Orion will fly initially on a Delta IV Heavy shakedown flight, the first mission of an Orion on an SLS flight on the EM-1 flight in December 2017.  This will use a Block 1 configuration (5 segment solid rockets and an RL-10 powered upper stage) and will have a 70 tonne LEO payload rocket. 

During this flight, an unmanned version of the Orion capsule will re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at 11km/s after its seven day flight around the moon.    In 2021, the first fully crewed Orion lunar flight will take place.  This flight called EM-2 will last 10-14 days and will use a J-2X powered upper stage.  The number of 1.3MN J-2X engines on this SLS upper stage has yet to be disclosed.

At this point in the discussion the missing element of NASA's lunar exploration plan becomes evident.  While Project Constellation had designs for a manned lunar lander called Altair, to date no new development programme for a manned lunar lander has been started.  Low budget technology test programmes continue however, even if they do have the occasional explosive set back as happened to Morpheus lunar lander test vehicle in early August at the Kennedy Space Center.

Better news for NASA is in respect to docking, guidance and lunar orbit rendezvous techniques.  NASA's Apollo pedigree means that the administration is, to date, the only space agency to successfully mount full blown landings of astronauts on the Moon.  This expertise still lies within the agency - albeit that many of its originators have either passed away or retired.

Summary:  USA remains Favourite with odds of 6-4 (lengthened from Evens in 2010).  

USA remains favourite despite not having a suitable lander and an as yet to be developed service module for Orion.  In other words they may be first "around the Moon" but not be able to land on it.  A lander will take about four years to develop so there is still time and, of course, NASA has its Lunar Excursion Module design experience to fall back on. NASA's odds have lengthened not because it is underperforming but because there are signs that China and Russia are getting their acts together.

CHINA: Its lunar intentions are known but it needs a lander and heavy lift rocket

China has the political will, and probably the finances to mount a manned lunar landing.  In fact, the nation has already declared its intention to land its astronauts on the Moon.  China's space programme already has a lunar capable spacecraft in the form of its Soyuz-derived Shenzhou spacecraft design (the re-entry capsule of Soyuz was designed for return from lunar missions).   It is also known that China is working on a lunar lander design.    

The separation of Shenzhou 9 from the Tiangong 1 mini-space station in June showed China's growing prowess in rendezvous, docking and undocking operations.  Courtesy: CCTV

Meantime, China is gaining experience of orbiting the moon with its Chang'e unmanned orbiter spacecraft series and plans an unmanned lunar landing with its Chang'e 3 lander/rover mission in 2013. China is also rapidly mastering the skill of making rendezvous and dockings with the recent Shenzhou 9 docking with Tiangong 1 as an obvious example. While its manned extravehicular experience has been limited, this is set to increase.

The missing piece in China's lunar ambitions is that the nation's space programme needs a heavy lift launch vehicle.  The problem is that it may not have a powerful enough engine.  Chinese space programme has the 1,157kN YF-100 rocket engine, developed for the boosters of the Long March 5, but it admits that it needs something about five times as powerful.  

However, engineers at China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) are working on a new two combustion chamber version of this engine called the YF-650, which is likely to generate 6.4MN of thrust at sea level.  

Latest preferred configuration for the Long March 9 (CZ-9) super-heavy lift launch vehicle has an all Lox/kerosene first stage with four of these engines (25.5MN) and four Lox/kerosene single YF-650 powered strap on 3.35m diameter rocket boosters,  each with a 6.4MN thrust YF-650. This 'all LOx/kerosene' lift off design would allow the benefits of cross feeding of propellants,

With a total initial thrust of 51MN from all eight YF-650s, this is significantly more than circa 32MN lift off thrust that the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) originally said it needed.  In this configuration, the Long March 9 would have the most thrust ever generated at launch, by a launch vehicle beating both the Saturn V (33.85MN) and even that of the 50MN thrust of the unsuccessful former Soviet N-1 moon rocket.  

Interestingly, the configuration is analogous to a sort of super-Saturn V design that many rocket engineers (including at NASA) were calling for during the SLS design process.

The favourite configuration for the Long March 9 (left) uses LOx/Kerosene propellants for both the first stage and boosters.  An alternative is to use a LOx/Liquid Hydrogen first stage with solid rocket boosters. Courtesy: CALT

The second stage of the Long March 9 prefered configuration would be all cryogenic using Lox/liquid hydrogen for propellants and would use two YF-220 2.15MN engines.    The payload to LEO is estimated to be circa 130 tonnes.   Analysts predict that such a launch vehicle will be able to launch Apollo style exploration missions using a single launch vehicle.

The Long March 9 (CZ-9) would probably fly from a launch site on Hainan Island.The Long March 9 (CZ-9) would probably fly from a launch site on Hainan Island.

Alternative configurations are still being considered including an SLS style vehicle using solid rocket boosters (albeit four of them) attached to a YF-220 LOx/Liquid Hydrogen four engine core with a YF-200 powered upper stage  Presumably, this configuration has also been considered with LOx/Kerosene liquid fuel boosters as well.  

Summary:  China is joint second favourite with odds of 5-2 (promoted from being 5-1 third favourite in 2010). There has been progress in all areas involving rendezvous techniques, docking and spacewalks and it has strong political will and financial resources.  However, China is doing things at its own steady pace and does not seem to think that it is in any kind of race.  The development of a new two chamber YF-650 rocket engine will decide progress. 

Any Chinese lunar landings will probably be "less capable" Apollo-style two crew landings/three crew overall and using just one launch vehicle, rather than the more ambitious three crew landings/four crew overall missions of other nations which need two launches.  Nevertheless, China may get there first even if this is not an official aim.

RUSSIA: Signs show it is working on a lander as Roscosmos ponders a heavy lifter

Mixed signals are coming out of Russia's Space Agency Roscosmos.  Russia has experience with mounting lunar rover and sample return missions, and of course, has decades of docking experience. Russia, in cooperation with India, is planning the landing of a small four-wheeled rover on to the surface of the Earth's celestial neighbour during the Luna-Resource/ Chandrayaan-2 mission set to launch in 2014.

With respect to manned landings, the head of the Central Research Institute of Machine Building Gennady Raikunov has noted that the work on a new manned lunar lander had already started.  Meanwhile, the Head of Lavochkin Scientific and Production Corp. Victor Khartov openly called for a Lunar landing programme. 

Officially, however, no lunar missions will be attempted until 2018 at the earliest.   Russia, of course did design the one-man LK lunar lander in the 1960s space race, but it never flew,

Russia is designing a new four-man New Generation Crew Transportation Vehicle, dubbed by commentators as "Orionski" after its similarity to the US Orion manned spacecraft, to replace Soyuz. .  Its unmanned first flight is set to take place 2015 will be on a Zenit rocket.  Later  manned flights of the complete spacecraft would use a version of Russia's Angara rocket.  These lights are likely to occur in 2018. 

Model of Russia's New Generation Crew Transportation Vehicle ("Orionski") at Farnborough. It is designed for lunar transport.  Courtesy: Flightglobal/David Todd

Models of the Angara rocket family at Farnborough showed one with a manned escape rocket system, but larger rocket will be needed lunar missions.  Courtesy: Flightglobal/David Todd

While Russia will thus have a manned capsule and service module and will potentially have a lunar landing and ascent craft, it is lacking a heavy lift launch capability.   It has been noted by Roscosmos that it will probably eventually need a heavy lift launch vehicle with at least a 70 tonne LEO launch capability, mimicking the US Senate's requirements for SLS.  However, the head of Russia's space agency, Roscosmos, Vladimir Popovkin, noted that Russia would only build one "when we need it."  

Nevertheless shortly afterwards Roscosmos announced a tender for heavy lift launch vehicle draft designs to be submitted by the end of March 2013.  it has been stated that such a launch vehicle would be launched from Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur Region not before 2018. 

Russia did build the unsuccessful N-1 moon rocket (its failures were the cause of Russia losing the original moon race). Nevertheless, Russia and Ukraine do have the most recent world experience in building working heavy lift vehicle.  The 100 tonne payload-class Energia-Buran launch vehicle system of the 1980s was used to launch the Buran space shuttle as well as the Polyus space laser defence payload.  And it is with this experience in mind that the President and General Designer of Space design firm Energia, Vitaly Lopota, made his bid by proposing the building a heavy lift launch vehicle as part of a "joint project" with other former Soviet states including Ukraine   The name for their proposed super-heavy carrier rocket would be "Commonwealth".  

This Commonweath rocket would however, not use the LOx/liquid Hydrogen core like the Energia-Buran or NASA's SLS, but instead use LOX/Kerosene rocket engines for the first stage and boosters with a LOx/Liquid Hydrogen second stage. The rocket would however use a derivative of  the Zenit launch vehicle 7.8MN thrust RD-171 rocket engines for its boosters. 

Other configurations for Russia's heavy lift rockt may  also be proposed.  Interestingly, before it broke up, Soviet Union had been examining using an eight strap-on configuration of the Energia rocket called Vulcain which would have had an LEO payload capacity of 175-200 tonnes.

While Roscosmos is not completely showing its hand, some Western space tourism firms are intent on using current Russian Soyuz hardware combined with Proton launch vehicles to make lunar flyby flights.  While very cramped, Soyuz can perform such missions.   Whether this comes to fruition remains to be seen. 

At the Farnborough Air Show, Vladimir Popovkin was cautious that such firms could raise the funds for such a mission even if they were charging $100 million per seat.  Nevertheless Popovkin remains in favour of close working relationships with private industry citing that he had had discussions with Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) about the future of manned exploration.

Summary: Russia is joint second favourite and its odds are now 5-2 (cut from 3-1).  Russia may be the dark horse of the race with the Putin/Medvedev administration wanting to restore the nation to space greatness.  If it does quickly build a "super-heavy-lift" rocket (Russia does have a record of starting rocket projects and then not finishing them) along with a suitable lunar lander then this could make them favourites.

ISLE OF MAN:  Becomes unlikely fourth favourite with "slow boat to Moon" plan 

The Isle of Man, at first sight, seems a strange and unlikely contender - it being a small and relatively unpopulated small crown dependency of the United Kingdom.  Nevertheless, due to its low tax regime and due to its special encouragement of space industry, it has grown its own impressive space capabilities covering space insurance, satellite operations and space manufacturing. 

However, it is its Excalibur Almaz firm based on the island that gives the Isle of Man its best chance to getting men to the Moon. This firm plans to use ex-Soviet Almaz/TKS hardware including two former space stations, and converting them into a kind of trans-lunar "space-liner" using low thrust but highly efficient electrical propulsion to traverse from low Earth orbit to the Moon.  This does away with the need to develop a super-heavy lift launch vehicle - a currently available Russian Proton will suffice.  Each spaceliner would have its own re-entry capsule craft for return to Earth. 

While at first sight sensible, the plan does present other problems including crew having to have space radiation protection while the craft slowly spirals through Earth's Van Allen belts. 

Excalibur Almaz plans to make low thrust appoach to lunar space using a converted space station as a kind of manned "space liner".  Courtesy:  Excalibur Almaz

Odyssey Moon's MoonOne lunar lander could be the forerunner for manned lunar landers.  Courtesy: Odyssey Moon

Summary:  Isle of Man rises to fourth favourite and its odds are 20-1 (cut from 50-1 and up from being fifth favourite in 2010).  The plan is feasible if it can get funding for Proton launches etc. The firm has a genuine chance of making first "round the Moon" trip if it can raise the cash. Landings may follow if a suitable lander is built.   The bid even has NASA's technical if not financial backing.    Is the Isle of Man trying to emulate the space-race-winning "Duchy of Grand Fenwick" in Richard Lester's 1963 comedy film The Mouse on the Moon?  We hope so.

INDIA:  Manned space bid may come to nothing while lunar flight is decades away 

While India and its Indian Space Resource Organisation (ISRO) still has plans for a manned space capsule, and is involved in the joint unmanned Luna-Resource/Chandrayaan 2 lunar lander/rover mission with Russia in 2014, manned lunar space exploration probably still remains decades away. 

The Indian government's glamorous space plans remain under fire both internally and externally for considering having a manned space programme given that its transport, power and sewerage infrastructure remains in desperate need of funding.

Indian manned space capsule design.  Such a capsule could theoretically used for lunar trips, but India lacks a large enough rocket and does not yet have landing or rendezvous technology - though it hopes to gain some of this workig with Russia.  Courtesy: Flightglobal

As it is there are now doubts about whether India has the technical elements to mount even a basic manned space mission.  For example, while the GSLV-3 launcher, with which ISRO plans to make manned missions, has yet to fly, its GSLV forerunners have a very poor reliability record.  

If it unmanned lunar collaboration with Russia goes well, India may yet elect to become part of Russia's lunar exploration programme rather than going it alone. At one point Boeing seemed to be offering human spaceflight expertise to India.  Either way, its lunar ambitions will probably depend on access to Russian or US expertise.  

Summary: India drops to fifth favourite and its odds are 100-1 (out from 33-1)

India's chance is falling away as it lacks many of the key elements for such a mission.  Nevertheless a basic manned mission into orbit may be achieved.

REST OF THE FIELD:  We will believe it when we see it

While Japan remains keen on space exploration, its space agency JAXA has no manned exploration experience save for flying its hardware to the International Space Station and having its astronauts carried there by third parties.  Nevertheless, Japan does have a plan to have its own manned capsule as a development of its HTV cargo craft.  Whether this could ever be put to lunar use remains to be seen (Japan is a new entrant at 150-1). 

The European Space Agency remains in a similar position in being a participant of the International Space Station but with no manned launch capability.  It may become part of NASA's programme via using the ATV as a service module for Orion.  The ESA supported UK's Skylon cheap to operate space plane proposal might make mounting cheaper lunar landing transfer and landing flights (and even Mars flights) much more feasible but that is for the long term (odds for UK/Europe - now conjoined - stays at 300-1 but this may be an interesting long shot). 

A Right Royal Start

With the help of some sweet renditions by the Prisma girl's choir, the King of Sweden, His Majesty, Carl XVI Gustaf, opened the biennial AIAA Space Ops 2012 conference.  This conference is for those scientists and engineers most closely involved in the operating of spacecraft, both manned and unmanned.    As he did so, His Majesty mentioned the benefits of spacecraft monitoring in helping the world's environment - a subject close to his heart. 

His Majesty. the King of Sweden. opens the Space Ops Conference.  Courtesy: Ascend/David Todd

Of course, Sweden's space programme which is most strongly associated with launching sounding rockets from Kiruna, also has an interest in satellite technology via SSC (formerly the Swedish Space Corporation).   It was in this context that industry expert Sven Grahn even joked that his Majesty once put his name on the Astrid 2 spacecraft and then openly wondered "Who will read it?"  It was a fair point.

Overall the SpaceOps conference was well organised with some good opportunities to make social and business connections.  Stockholm is a very nice city as well.

The organisers even provided a free lunch in the exhibition area which pleased most and had two social events including one at the Vasa ship museum (surprisingly there are no aerospace museums in Stockholm) to which most were invited to.

The Swedish Cavalry at the Changing of the Guard ceremony in Stockholm may have an old world "Ruritanian" charm but the modern Swedish nation has aerospace expertise ranging from jet fighters to space research and sounding rockets.  Courtesy: Ascend/David Todd

As usual, by having several strands of lectures running at the same time, attendees found that they could not be in two (or three) places at once.  Nevertheless, given the strict session timing, most people got to see their main priority lectures in the timetable.     Below is just a flavour of the Plenary and technical presentations.  It was noted that some of the US presenters had to previously self censor some of their technical elements to get their presentations passed by their respective ITAR Export Control officers.

Debris and interference threats discussed

In the technical sessions the threat of debris (and how to limit it) was discussed.  Emmet Fletcher of ESA detailed how radar and optical data was being used to check against known object catalogues in the attempt to track new hazaardous objects and put them on a database.  Fletcher's concern was that within 48 hours, the drag of the atmosphere could, depending on its density, change the track of an threatening object significantly.  His solution was to make more regular observations - though he admitted that more space and Earth-bound sensors would be needed for this.

Later in the conference, the subject of interference and jamming became a major topic of concern. Mohanned Elnour Ahmed of the Middle Eastern operator Arabsat noted that while only 10% of interference was deliberate it was becoming difficult to combat.  "The jamming of television signals cannot be stopped due to their nature." he said as he noted how jamming had recently been done for both political and even contractual dispute reasons.

With respect to the future of commercial communications, interestingly Mr Ahmed predicted that the Geostationary orbit would lose its significance in favour of low Earth orbit constellations.

Human Spaceflight:  Where next?

During the human spaceflight and exploration plenary, Veno Seiichi of Japan's space agency, JAXA, noted their plan to give the HTV cargo craft a return capsule capability.  Called HTV-R, this spacecraft could one day give Japan a human spaceflight capability as well.  Japan remains keenly interested in manned spaceflight.  Having pioneered the robotic arm berthing technique for the HTV (a technique which is now being used by SpaceX), JAXA is also working on high internal pressure space suit technologies that would elimiate the need for prebreathing.

When it came to the International Space Station's robot arm, Pierre Jean of the Canadian Space Agency, noted that it was having to face up to "vendor obsolescence" as he noted the difficulties of getting parts and expertise for items that were no longer being made.

While it was currently having to rely on Russia to launch its astronauts, NASA's Bill Gertenmaier described how testing of the Orion space capsule was proceeding satisfactorily and that acoustic testing was nearly complete. 

In respect to where mankind should go next, Gerstenmaier warned that there may not be enough asteroids in close proximity to Earth to allow such a mission to take place.  He suggested that it would take more or less the same Delta V (velocity change) to reach Mars as it would to reach one of these and hinted that the Moon would probably be the next likely place to visit.  

With respect to manned low Earth orbit operations, Gerstenmaier warned that while the commercial programme was cost effective, it had had to sometimes take big risks.  He gave the example the second stage of the Falcon 9 which was notd vaccuum tested until it was fired on its way to orbit.  Having noted that this testing short cut gamble paid off, he warned that this was not always the case. 

Gerstenmaier also noted a word of caution about the prospects for commercial space travel systems.  I don't think that space tourism is big enough to drive all the commercial companies," he said, suggesting that hopes that space tourism would fill any shortfall in government business could be unfounded. 

Atlas V lined up for commercial crew journeys while SLS pad may be reconfigurable 

With respect to commercial crew launch providers, while companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin one day plan to fly their craft off resusable launch vehicles, for the time they, along with Sierra Nevada, have chosen the Atlas V expendable launch vehicle to loft their spacecraft.  Mike Holguin of the United Launch Alliance noted in his presentation that any such rocket would likely need a dual RL-10 engine powered Centaur upper stage configuration.

NASA executives Jody Singer and Jerry Cook confirmed the running order of the initial flights of the Space Launch System (SLS),  The first flight dubbed EM-1 is to fly in 2017 using a Block 1 configuration (5 segment solid rockets and an RL-10 powered upper stage).  This 70 tonne payload rocket will project a "boiler plate" Orion capsule back into the Earth's atmopsphere at 11km/s after its seven day flight around the moon.    In 2021, the first fully crewed Orion lunar flight will take place.  This flight called EM-2 will last 10-14 days and will use a J-2X powered upper stage.  The number of 290,000lb J-2X engines on the SLS upper stage has yet to be disclosed but it is likely to be one or two.

NASA's SLS model shown at Space Ops exhibition was the Block 1 configuration - albeit with five core stage engines instead of the now agreed four.  Courtesy: Ascend/David Todd

Before both of these flights, the EFT-1 flight aboard an Atlas rocket will carry the Orion capsule in unmanned configuration along with the SLS adapter.

NASA is concentrating on limiting operating costs as NASA's Dr. Michael Watson noted. Having got wise to the concept that their current and future political masters are most interested in "costs now rather than costs past" the SLS team is concentrating on developing a heavy lift launch vehicle whose costs ot operate will be lower than past heavy lift launch vehicles. 

When the team was asked whether the 130-160 tonne payload Block 2 SLS in the full two advanced booster configuration (either using advanced solids or liquid fuel boosters) could ever reach 200 tonnes in four booster configuration, Jerry Cook noted: "We could go to four boosters at a later stage but for the time being this is restricted by pad infrastructure."    

This was confirmed by Hector Delgado, Chief Engineer of Design and Developments at Kennedy Space Centre.   While he admitted that the mobile launch pad was being modified with a rectagular slot to take the main core and boosters of SLS, it would be difficult to get first stage refueling lines in and keep the structure stable if the "hole" configuration in the mobile pad was changed to a four booster one.  

Likewise, as he noted in his paper that he was fully in favour of making the umbilical arms moveable on tracks on the launch tower to accomodate different sizes of SLS and even other launch vehicles, nevertheless, he noted that with only 50 feet (15.25m) of clearance, a safe launch of a vehicle using four boosters would be hard to achieve.  Delgado also noted the need to remove the umbillicals with certainty and with speed if unextinguisable/unthrottleable solid rocket boosters were used. 

While Delgado was keen to increase the pad's utilisation he had to admit that while it might only fly three times a year, SLS was always have priority over any other launch vehilces with designs on using the pad.

The NASA team also admitted that the flat spend on the SLS launch vehicle development has its own limitations, but they were making the best of it.  Hector Deglado was keen to note that to save costs, NASA was becoming adept at "using what they have" rather than building all new infrastructure and hardware.  For example, the main structure of the launch tower came from the now cancelled Project Constellation Ares launch programme, while the pad's water suppression tanks are from the Shuttle programme.  Meanwhile the flame trenches originated fromt the Saturn V Apollo era.

New methods of fuel measurement and automatic reporting for satellites in orbit

While manned spaceflight and interplanetary missions offered the "sex appeal" of the conference, the run of the mill operations of commercial spacecraft continued to enlighten.  

One interesting presentation by Boris Yendler of YSPM in conjuction with the Middle Eastern communications satellite operator Arabsat.  The YSPM consultancy has perfected the technique of using heating rates to determine the amount of propellants there is left on a spacecraft (in space conventional fuel gauges to not work).  The system was used to measure how much life was lost during an emergency manoeuvre on Arabsat 2B.

Richared Burley of NASA described the unfortunately named ARS (Automatic Reporting System) which automaticallly registered anomalies to the Hubble Space Telescope allowing ground controllers to do other things unless an urgent case came up.

While ESA/NASA Mars exploration ExoMars programme was torn assunder when NASA defected, the Moon is apparently still a place for space cooperation. China's Chang'e 3 lunar rover which is due to be launched in 2013 will use ESA ground stations during its mission.  The rover is to carry a robotic arm. 

Keeping ISS safe - even in an unmanned condition

After the cargo craft, Progress M-012M (ISS-44P), failed to reach orbit last year, the threat of having to abandon the International Space Station  made ESA and NASA update their procedures for keeping the station alive if it ever does have to be left unmanned.

Thomas Hiriart of CAM noted that that there was a trade off between risks in the procedures for doing this.  For example, switching off the fans inside Columbus module seems sensible from a fire safety point of view, until it was realised that for air safety, smoke detection and condensation reasons it was best to leave them on.

Meantime Andrew Cecil of NASA noted how experimentation on the International Space Station could now be controlled directly by users via the Ku-band transponders of  rather than by the S-band transponder system.  It was noted that suitable safeguards are in place to ensure station safety.

Unmanned exploration:  Electric thrusters are good but venting causes problems for comet hunters

Carl Brandon of Vermont Technical College announced that there would be a technology test flight in July for the "Vermont Lunar Cubesat" which would one day be flown to the Moon using Xenion Ion electric thrusters and might even use a ballistic capture trajectory. 

The Cubesat test flight to a 500km, 40.5 degree inclination, low Earth orbit will be on a multi-satellite Minotaur launch vehicle in July 2013.  

While using efficient electric propulsion an eventual cubesat misson round the moon is planned, there are downsides to using such technolgy.  For example, its low thrust means that it can take 23,000 hours to reach interplanetary velocities of circa 7km/s.  There are also some other mission limitations of having such a weak thrust. 

One of the interesting papers presented was that of Richard Rieber of JPL as he disclosed the problems and solutions in approaching the Comet Hartley 2 during the EPOXI add-on mission. Specifically, comets doe not stand still as gas vents act as thrusters given them velocity increments in unexpected directions.  His advice for future comet missions is to have enough high thrust trajectory altering capability to make last minute corrections - and electric thrusters simply do not have enough impulse for this.

There were other problems on the mission Rieber noted.  EPOXI, in being an add-on mission to the original Deep Impact spacecraft, found that it had to slew itself backwards and forwards to acquire data and transmit it back to Earth during its approach to the Comet Hartley 2.  

Earth Observation:  benefits yes but privacy remains an issue

While the Earth Observation plenary panelists from DLR, Eumetsat, DMC, Google Earth and CNES were keen to note how imagery from Earth observation spacecraft was helping mankind by monitoring the weather and volcanos, preventing genocide and even helping individuals decide which house to buy, but as imagery satellite and aerial imagery improves the issue of privacy remained a concern as was apparent from questions posted online from the audience.  

As the experts went on to explain the advantages of the METOP satellite series for meteorology, it was noted that some data such as atmospheric pressure readings was usually much better recorded in situ. 

It was then suggested by Ed Parsons of Google Earth that all smart mobile phones should carry satellite trackable barometers as an ap (application). He then quickly tried to reassure the audience that this information would be kept completely anonymous.  And some believed him.  

The Japanese climate change monitoring satellite GCOM-W1 (Shizuku) was launched successfully at 1639 GMT on 17th May 2012 by a Japanese H-2A202 launch vehicle.  The lift off took place at Japan's main launch site at Tanegashima. Also aboard was the South Korean Earth observation satellite Kompsat 3 and two small satellites: the Houryuu 2 (aka Houryuu 2) amateur radio satellite and the experimental satellite SDS 4.

Having previously collaborated on the Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) instrument for JAXA's  Hinode (Solar B) mission, and with the UK having provided disaster monitoring imaging via the Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC) system after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, Japan and the United Kingdom have announced that they are going to collaborate further on space research.  

During April, the UK Minister for Universities and Science, David Willetts signed an agreement with the Japanese Economy Minister Motohisa Furukawa for greater collaboration on space research and technology,  This is likely to include working on on earth observation technology, such as the NovaSAR  space radar programme or the Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC) run by Surrey Satellite Technology Limited

As the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Hayabusa probe, which may have collected a soil sample from an asteroid, limps into Earth orbit due to thruster problems, a new debate seems to have started about the country's space programme

According to this article from the English language Daily Yomiuri newspaper the Japanese space programme has its own problems with a debate brewing about whether manned spaceflight can continue

Japan, despite being a wealthy nation, has always had goals far beyond the resources its prepared to put into them and last year the country's government imposed a 10% cut on the agency's budget

Once touted as a partner in the doomed ESA/Russian Federal Space Agency plans for Kliper/Clipper JAXA must now be wondering how it sustains its involvement in the International Space Station to 2020 and beyond