ESA's launch facility in Kourou, French Guiana could handle both flights more or less simultaneously, but the two rockets will follow similar trajectories and thus share the same set of ground stations, including some tracking equipment aboard ships that are today in place for the Vega launch but must be repositioned before the ATV flight. Traffic to the ISS is heavy, so 9 March - give or take a day for normal launch delays - is a non-negotiable slot.

If Vega cannot fly before Ariane 5, it will get a new date in late March or April.

Historical data shows that fully 60% of maiden launches end in failure, but ESA is determined to take every precaution for a success. At this time last year, ESA had hoped to make the Vega flight before the close of 2011, but eventually settled on 26 January 2012 - the key being to find a date in between the first-ever Soyuz flight from Kourou (which flew as planned on 20 October) and the ATV launch on 9 March.

Vega has been nine years in the works and will give ESA exceptional flexibility in its operations. The rocket's sweet spot is to place a 1.5T payload into a 750km orbit, ideal for Earth observation or scientific missions. Soyuz can loft 3T to the very high geosynchronous orbits - its first Kourou payload was a pair of Galileo navigation satellites. Ariane 5 is much bigger, ideal for up to 10T to geosynchronous orbits or heavy loads to the Space Station.

More on Vega:

-first payload

-ambitious technology

-ESA's plans for 2012

Analysis by David Todd

The U.S. Air Force mini-shuttle mission X-37B/OTV 2 (Flight 1), which was launched in March 2011, had its 9 month mission unexpectedly extended at the end of 2011. The magazine of the British Interplanetary Society, Spaceflight, edited by David Baker, came to the conclusion that the U.S. Air Force mini space plane may have a secondary in-space reconnaissance role to spy on China's manned space programme in addition to its suspected Earth observation role.  

Artist's impression of the X-37B spacecfraft with its payload bay doors open and its solar array deployed.  Courtesy: Boeing

The conclusion was reached after amateur watchers noted the similarity in its orbital parameters (inclination, apogee, perigee) to that of China's Tiangong 1 small space station which was recently used for China's successful unmanned Shenzhou 8 docking tests.  Spaceflight speculated that the mission thus may be being used for intelligence gathering on the Chinese space station. Other orbital analysts disagree, noting that for long term observation their orbits would really have to be in the same plane and that they are currently more or less perpendicular to each other. 

For their planes to line up, the two orbits have to have the same inclination - which is the case at circa 42.8 degrees - and have the same right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) - they are currently about 90 degrees apart.  The RAAN is the angular location of the point where the satellite crosses the equator going from south to north as measured from a fixed point in space (First Point of Aries).   

Nevertheless, all may not be lost for this spying theory.  While an engine firing could be made to alter the X-37B's orbital plane, this would be probably too costly in terms of fuel use.  More likely is to use the small differences in their two orbits' parameters (apogee, perigee) to allow their two orbital planes to slowly merge using the differences in their natural orbital precession rates, which are caused by the irregular/oblate shape of the Earth.    While time consuming, the Iridium communications satellite constellation moves its satellites from plane to plane in this way.  As such, with their orbital planes lined up, it would be relatively simple making minor altitude changes to allow X-37B to get into a close observing position near Tiangong 1.

The Tiangong 1 station is expected to receive a manned Shenzhou visit later this year.  The opportunity to observe this docking is probably too good to miss for the US intelligence establishment.  Thus Hyperbola expects that X-37B/OTV 2 (FLIGHT 1) will be used to monitor any manned docking when it occurs.  The proof of this will be if it lines up its orbital plane with Tiangong 1 as described.

NASA is returning the commercial crew development programme (CCDev) to its original contracting mechanism, the Space Act Agreement (SAA), after indicating otherwise for several months.

In a 15 December announcement, NASA deputy administrator William Gerstenmaier announced the agency would continue to use SAAs instead of federal acquisition regulations (FARs) it had planned to use.

The FAR vs. SAA battle has been ongoing for some time, and received no small amount of press, but for what might be considered a minor issue it actually has an outsize impact.

FAR is the standard way the government purchases goods and services. They allow NASA to describe exactly what it wants, when it wants it and how the thing should be built. Penalties can be imposed if the contracted firm can't deliver the goods on time.

SAAs, on the other hand, are much more flexible. Under a funded SAA - several unfunded ones have been signed - NASA can't dictate standards or process, just award money when certain actions are deemed completed by both NASA and the contractor. For CCDev, NASA decided to award money based on a checkpoint system: the contractor gets NASA money for completing certain tasks, finishing wind tunnel testing, for example, or completing a component review.

 The companies, of course, much prefer SAAs to FAR. It makes things less expensive, as they don't necessarily have to built to NASA's standards, allows greater leeway for payments, and generally makes government interactions easier.

 Gerstenmaier said that NASA decided to return to SAAs due to budget concerns. CCDev was awarded just over $400 million in the latest budget, well under the $850 million that President Obama requested. Further cuts are possible as the government struggles with mounting financial difficulties, an ever-increasing deficit resulting in increasing budget pressure.

Brussels signalled its intention to overcome budget crises and realise Europe's goal of an independent, civilian-controlled satellite navigation service with a proposal to earmark €7 billion to guarantee completion of the Galileo constellation and its auxiliary EGNOS enhancement service and their operation through 2020.

The first two Galileo spacecraft launched in October as part of a fast-track plan for near global coverage from 22 or 24 satellites by 2014, financed by €500 million cost savings agreed earlier this year.

But, said European Commission vice president for industry Antonio Tajani, if member states approve the proposed extra budget, the full complement of 27 active satellites and three orbiting spares will be deployed by 2018-19: "The increase of our know-how in satellite navigation technology and service will significantly support European industry in these difficult times."

The Commission also wants to ensure that another of its space priorities, the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) programme, is realised. Brussels reckons the programme needs €5.8 billion for the 2014-20 period, and its proposal is to establish a specific GMES fund, outside the European Union  modelled on the European Development Fund with GDP-based contributions from all 27 European Union member states

The GMES plan is to gather data from sensors in space, on land, on sea and in the air to create maps, reports, targeted alerts, etc.  The idea is to carefully monitor climate and other Earth conditions and both anticipate, and improve response to, change.

Disaster response is another objective. As Tajani puts it: "In order to respond to ever growing challenges at global level, Europe needs a well-coordinated and reliable Earth observation system of its own."

The thrust of all these programmes is to give Europe self-sufficiency in space-based capabilities. As yet there is no clear move to put hard cash behind another stated objective, to dramatically enhance Europe's space situational awareness (SSA) capability, though the European Space Agency is actively working to define the requirements and a 2012-13 start on a system that could cost €600-700 million over its first five years may be feasible, again pending budgets.

A European SSA system - of a single radar installation somewhere in Europe supplemented by some 20 optical telescopes at four sites equally spaced near the Equator - would be comparable to, and inter-operative with, the USA's system.

The objective is to track debris and monitor solar weather, two hazards which do €332 million ($480 million) in damage to European assets annually. Orbiting debris is a serious problem; earlier this year astronauts on the International Space Station had to take cover in the station's evacuation pods to await passage of a sizeable chunk.

But there is another concern, which will be a focus of Europe's SSA system. So-called near-Earth objects are a hazard of life in the solar system, as evidenced last month with the passage of an aircraft carrier-sized asteroid at a distance closer than the Moon. Such a chunk of debris would have unleashed a blast equal to a 4,000 megaton nuke had it hit the Earth.

No big blocks have been identified that might hit Earth over the next century. That's a good thing, too, as more than one mass extinction in Earth's long geologic history are believed to have been set off by asteroid impacts. Scientists are actively discussing methods of diverting catastrophe, there is as yet no feasible scheme to save us from the dinosaurs' fate.

 By David Todd

 As American Airlines files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, it may well be suffering from the "sci-fi movie curse of the airlines".  As science fiction film makers have found, predicting the future is fraught with hazard as those companies that are strong now may not be so in the future.  This curse usually results in such airlines which do appear usually not having any future at all.     For example, American Airlines appeared in the well regarded eco-science fiction drama Silent Running (1972) which starred Bruce Dern, some very sweet robots, and a lot of trees.   Of the airline, robots and trees....now it looks as if only the trees will survive.

 American Airlines is not the only victim of this curse.  In Stanley Kubrick's 2001 - A Space Odyssey (1968) the Orion shuttle which carried space passengers to the rotating Earth station was seen in the livery colours of the then great, but now defunct, Pan American World Airways (PanAm).  Perhaps PanAm was asking for it when it even actually took bookings for flights to the Moon.   

 It was not just this film that got it wrong about PanAm.  The dystopian vision of what future cities will be like in Ridley Scott's Blade Runner (1982) had massive illuminated advertising hoardings with PanAm featuring prominently.  It was not just Pan Am that was apparently cursed, some of the other companies that featured in the film such as Atari and Cuisinart also suffered financial difficulties.

 PanAm will now never be an orbital spaceline despite this colour scheme on the Orion III Space Clipper. 

Lump of cash or trip of a lifetime? IT people, it seems, would take the money.

Cambridge-headquartered software company Red Gate has had possibly tens of thousands of entries to its competition, open to database administrators, to win a suborbital flight with Space Adventures. For legal reasons, the winner can choose between the flight or a cash equivalent of $102,000, and though the DBA in Space competition remains open until 22 November, an ongoing survey of the company's Twitter followers has nearly two-thirds opting for the money.

Somehow, Hyperbola reckons this should be no surprise. While millionaires who can't decide whether to buy another Ferrari or not might just as well plunk out for a fairground ride with a difference, for mere mortals with a mortgage and recession angst the choice looks easy.

Vega will lift off from the Spaceport's ZLV launch site, which originally was used for the Ariane 1 and Ariane 3 vehicles.

The medium-lift Soyuz and light category Vega will complement ESA's heavylift Ariane 5s to provide a range of launch options at Kourou.

A longer-term project is also underway, to develop a a high-thrust cryogenic engine that could form the basis of ESA's next-generation launcher. It will not fly until about 2025, but is intended to provide a medium-lift capability in a modular design, with a re-ignitable upper stage and options for strap-on solid propellant boosters offering extra thrust.

One of the more unusual chapters in human spaceflight history has come to an end with the return to Earth of the first-ever manned mission to Mars.

Or, at least, with the formal end of a "full-length, high-fidelity simulation of a human mission to our neighbouring planet". That is, six "astronauts" have opened the door to an isolation capsule at the Institute of Biomedical Problems in Moscow and stepped outside. Since closing that door 520 days ago, this dedicated crew have simulated a mission to Mars, including launch, interplanetary cruise, landing and excursion, and return home. To make the trip seem as real as possible, communications with the crew were even delayed for several seconds to simulate the time lag in radio chatter that would be experienced in a spacecraft at immense distances from Earth.

Now, for a few more days, they will enjoy some private time and relaxation before talking to the media on 8 November in Moscow; their mission continues into early December, as they go through an exhaustive series of debriefings, tests and evaluations to collect the mission's final data.

The Mars500 project may sound a bit mad, but its purpose is to answer a question absolutely critical to any future attempt to actually visit the red planet - could a human crew actually cope, psychologically and physically, with such a prolonged separation from home?

The simulation was rigorous, by a crew which could reasonably be selected for a real trip to Mars. 

On board were French composites engineer Romain Charles and Italian electronics engineer Diego Urbina, who has trained at the European Space Agency's astronaut training centre and participated in projects including a 2010 Mars Desert Research Station exercise in Utah. From Russia, Sukhrob Rustamovich Kamolov is a surgeon and isolation-conditions specialist, Alexey Sergevich Sitev is a navy diver who has trained astronauts for weightlessness, and Alexandr Ergovich Smoleevskiy is a military physician and flight medicine expert. China's Yue Wang is another medical doctor and astronaut trainee.

As ESA director Jean-Jacques Dordain noted as the Mars500 astronauts emerged from isolation, any real mission to Mars will necessarily be an international effort. To resolve technical issues like long-term life support with no supplies from Earth, adequate fuel supplies for the journey and protection from solar storm radiation will be a massive challenge taxing even the collective efforts of many nations. Coming up with the money to do it, of course, may be even more challenging.

But in the meanwhile early indications are that a crew, at least, could pull off its end of the bargain.