A short time ago it was more or less certain that the UK government was going to give the green light to a third runway at Heathrow. An interim measure would have involved moving the two parallel runways to mixed-mode operation to make airport operations more flexible, reducing the delays that have become endemic there.
Now neither of these solutions to Heathrow's dire capacity problems are quite so assured. What does that feel like to an airline like United (to pick just one carrier at random) which has paid as much as £30 million for an additional take-off/landing slot there?
So what has changed?
No new arguments have been advanced by any party, political or otherwise, but some significant political realignment has taken place.
On 11 November, by coincidence, there were two separate debates on closely related subjects: a parliamentary debate on the third runway issue, and simultaneously a debate at the UK Royal Aeronautical Society on whether the third Heathrow runway was the capacity solution for the UK's south-east, or whether - alternatively - the country should finally take up an idea already rejected three times over a period of nearly 40 years: building a completely new airport in the Thames estuary area.
Not at either of the debates was a single absolutely original idea advanced. All the arguments about all the options for all airport solutions have been rehearsed a thousand times.
But the Conservative Party which, if current voter polls are to believed, will be in government by 2010 at the latest, has recently decided to oppose the third runway. It also says that if the present government gives the runway the go-ahead in a month's time, will reverse that decision when/if it gets elected. The Conservatives' solution is to build a network of high speed rail services that would eliminate the need for domestic slots at Heathow. But the party doesn't put a date on achievement of this monumental project, nor address funding.
The effect of this policy realignment by the Conservatives - including London's new mayor Boris Johnson - has been to galvanise the already formidable but disparate opposition to the third runway, giving them a banner to follow. Meanwhile Johnson has commissioned his own study into siting a new airport in the Thames estuary.
Only time will now tell whether the formidable - and so far highly effective - lobbying by the business and financial institutions in favour of expanding Heathrow can overcome a re-invigorated, previously scattered set of opposition groups.
This is a bit of a nightmare for UK plc, because nobody in any group denies Heathrow is essential to the national economy, but nobody loves it either. Not any more they don't, because of its congestion-related vulnerability to delay and inability to meet demand. Basically, back in 1962 it was realised that London and the South East needed a decent airport, and Heathrow was not it. A four-runway Stansted was the answer, the inquiry decided. But that was shelved. In the 1980s that prospect was revisited, approved and shelved again. Meanwhile there have been three Thames estuary sites examined and rejected: Foulness, Maplin Sands, and - since 2000 - Cliffe.
This is the story of Britain and its politics: make do and mend. Grand strategy is not on the menu - ever.
So what's really going to happen? Based on history and my reading of UK political behaviour, there will almost certainly be - you guessed it - more "make do and mend".
Stansted will get its government-approved second runway following a planning inquiry that is not able to stop it. Heathrow will get its third runway because, although it is environmentally the most inappropriate option available, all the governments since 1962 have failed to take strategic decisions, leaving any government in power right now or in the near future, no alternative except to approve it, or to see the UK's economy seriously "changed", which most businesses today would translate as "damaged". Then, some time after 2020, Gatwick will get a second runway also.
Why not the estuary airport or high-speed railway network? Because they'll take too long to deliver even if they were to work, and the latter is not a foregone conclusion. The best hope for the environment is that the high speed rail network will develop in parallel with the enlarged existing airports, but as someone at the RAeS debate said, the estuary idea is "a dead duck". The coastal area is a massive haven for migratory birds, which provides environmentalists with powerful ammunition to deploy against the project, and the birdstrike risk would be a disaster for aviation safety.
Recent Comments