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What will your next accident be?

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The latest issue of Aero Safety World, the Flight Safety Foundation's monthly journal, contains a first class comment from Bill Voss, the FSF's president and CEO.

He's understandably bothered by the way that the adoption by airlines of safety management systems has been playing out in practise. 

I won't blather on about his argument, just reproduce here his four-question test of whether your airline has an effective SMS or not. If you can't provide an honest, data-justified answer to all of them, it hasn't:

1. What is most likely to be the cause of your next accident or serious incident?
2. How do you know that?
3. What are you doing about it?
4. Is it working?

SMS is about risk management. If you don't identify the risks you can't manage them.


Sex and safety management

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At the end of the Seventies, airlines had a formula for safety. It didn't work very well, but they had one.

Having studied and written about global airline safety performance for 30 years, I can tell you the evolution in safety thinking over that time has been pretty radical. 


Awards - DL speaking2.jpg
(We'll talk about what's going on in the picture in just a moment)

Right now the industry is taking tentative steps into safety management.

To understand why a tailor-made SMS is a good idea, take a look at where safety thinking used to be.

The Seventies "safety equation" would look something like this: where... 
safety performance = σ,
compliance with regulations = ρ, 
and ordering pilots not to screw up on pain of being fired = π

σ = ρ + π

Simple. Only it often didn't work. 

You only have to look at the accident stats to see the difference. Globally airlines are now six times safer than they were in 1979 in terms of fatal accidents per million flights. Okay, aircraft are better now, but there's more to it than that. 

In those days we'd study accidents in fine detail, put the carefully assembled paperwork in a filing cabinet, and the lessons from the accidents lived on in the practical sense only until the safety manager who remembered the report left, retired, or died.

Today we have digital databases that store data retrievably forever and reveal trends in real time. Data is the key. If the Board won't listen to anything else, they know they ignore data at their peril.

Now let's move to last week's Baines Simmons Innovation in Aviation Safety Management Awards, presented to those who have used safety management to make a difference in both operational and business terms.

The picture you saw at the top was me opening the envelope to see who'd impressed the independent judging panel. This is what I read out:

Highly Commended: RAF Brize Norton Safety Team: "for demonstrating practical application of dynamic risk assessment"
 

Brize team.jpg
RAF Brize Norton team: (from left) Wg Cdr Claire Muir; Station Flight Safety Officer Bruce Castle; Flt Lt Chris Gray 

(I'm on the right)

Highly Commended: Titan Airways:  "for an innovative and intellectual approach to measuring and driving cultural change and risk awareness

Pavan Johal - Safety Mgr- Titan Airways.jpg
Pavan Johal Safety Manager, Titan Airways 


And the winner is: Jazz Aviation:
"The Jazz entry stood out for its evidence of integrating SMS across aviation safety, quality, health and safety and business"

Thumbnail image for Awards - DL + Jazz.jpg
David Deveau, v-p Safety, Quality and the Environment, Jazz Aviation (Toronto)

And this was the Finalists' line-up, including the winners you'll recognise from above:

Awards winner - large group.jpg
On the left is Ronnie Smith, chair of the judging panel for the Innovation in Aviation Safety Management Awards and a SMS lead Consultant at Baines Simmons, who said: "The four additional finalists that also impressed us were easyJet, represented by Dave Prior, Director of Safety and Security and the Operations Risk Department; Manchester Airports Group; Scandinavian Airlines System (SAS) and the UK CAA represented by Giles Porter, Head of the Flight Operations Inspectorate."

Ronnie added: "We are delighted to have witnessed the enthusiasm in the industry prompted by this award. We believe it is important that we share accomplishments, celebrate success and give recognition to those organisations leading the field in aviation safety management." 

Sex? 

If I'd led with Safety Management you wouldn't have got this far






Bizav: the new yacht culture?

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Visiting shows like NBAA and EBACE (the latter just finished for the year in Geneva) is a surreal experience for ordinary mortals. It always has been, but is getting more so.

fin-p22-ebace-static-panorama-c-billypix.jpg

The aeroplanes themselves are particularly beautiful, and just as when one sees women with extraordinary physical beauty, they feel unattainable and all the more desirable for that.

The lower end of the bizav market is still struggling (below: a new Hawker 400 series aircraft)

Hawker 400.jpg
..but the high end is seemingly unstoppable. 

We are accustomed to the idea of big, lavishly finished aeroplanes being provided for heads of state like the King of Saudi Arabia or the Sultan of Brunei, and the very big but rather more utilitarian Air Force One that the President of the United States uses.

But now we're entering a different league for people who are not heads of state...

ACJ A319 interior.jpg
I think the best way of explaining this phenomenon, which aviation has not seen before, is that these lavishly customised airliners, especially the Airbus ACJ (above: the A319 version) and Boeing BBJ ranges (although you can go up to A380 or 747-8 if you want to), are becoming the new yachts for very high net worth individuals.

Yes, they'll use them for business as well, but they are manifestly much more than airborne offices or utilitarian travel devices.

I suspect that, if you are a Russian oligarch or Middle Eastern oiligarch, acquiring a mere Falcon, Gulfstream or Global Express may soon become terminally uncool.

fin-p35-airbus-francois-chazelle.jpgFrancois Chazelle sells ACJ series aeroplanes for Airbus. No wonder he looks pleased with himself. So do his Boeing and Embraer counterparts.

Personally I'd be quite happy with this Legacy. Clear to line up?

Legacy on runway.jpg
Now where would I like to go today...?

Incidentally, if you'd like to be taken on a walking tour of Geveva EBACE, including the aeroplanes, by my colleagues who were there this week, just visit our iFlight interactive dailies..

The Reno air race crash

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The FAA is taking a lot of stick for its slack regulation of air race and air show operations, and rightly so. The NTSB, investigating the crash of an air-race-modified P-51D Mustang last September at Reno, Nevada has made recommendations on just about every possible aspect of the FAA's oversight.

ghost.jpg
This is "The Galloping Ghost". Would you recognise that as a Mustang? I'd struggle! It's been trimmed for pure speed, with other aerodynamic considerations taking a back seat.

One of the NTSB criticisms was that the aircraft was extensively modified with no oversight of the modification process. Then it flew the Reno course at the limits of its performance envelope in front of the crowd without having been tested. No trial runs. No FAA rules requiring it.

Ten people in the crowd were killed by the crashing aircraft, and more than 60 were severely injured.

Here's an NTSB diagram showing how extensive the modifications were. Compare it with the photograph at the top of this post.

Poster_3.jpgAir racing is a thrilling sport, and inherently dangerous. That's why we go to see it. The pilots and the operators know what the risks are, and have the task of balancing them. But the spectators should not face a high risk of death. This crowd did because of where it was: at the apex of the racetrack's high-G final turn.

NTSB head Deborah Hersman says she doesn't intend to bind air racing with paranoic rules, she just wants to make sure common sense is applied to its planning and execution, and says the FAA's guidelines are not up to the job. They aren't.

But I expect they will be.




Shady Lady: an epic true story of a B-24 that crashed and flew again

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Tristan Loraine, a professional pilot turned film director, goes around the world looking for real aviation stories to bring back to life. He's certainly done it with Shady Lady, the filmed story of an extraordinary ultra-long-range mission by a USAF Consolidated B-24 Liberator in the Second World War.

The aeroplane ran out of fuel and crash-landed in Australia's remote Northern Territory, but has since flown again.

Such was the impact of the gripping but forgotten story that Tristan uncovered during filming, that President Obama issued a Presidential Citation to the crew last year. It was presented in Sydney to the aircraft commander's widow.


What to do if you are intercepted by a Typhoon (you better get it right)

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One way of being sure of getting a hostile intercept by a fully armed RAF Typhoon is to get your navigation wrong and penetrate the prohibited airspace over much of London and its surroundings during the 2012 Olympic Games.

In fact, at the time of the Olympics, if you diverge from your flight plan anywhere in South East England, the RAF will take about the same level of interest in you as they would have done in 1940.

If you are intercepted, you'd better comply - and quickly too. 

Especially near the Olympics. Security measures against any form of attack from the ground or air, are already fine-tuned. Olympic venues have, historically, been popular places for staging acts of terrorism or protest.

Advice for pilots on how to act upon interception specifically in the 2012 Olympic areas is here. It's based on the standard international intercept protocol, but there are variations you had better know.

Here's a page from the instructions:
1220-web_Page_4.jpg

Basically the Typhoon will appear on your left and rock its wings. If you don't notice, it'll break right across your bow in dramatic fashion, rocking its wings. If really set on indicating serious intent, the pilot will also ignite flares. That would help at night.

The drill in either case is to rock your wings in acknowledgement, and follow the Typhoon. It's unlikely to be on its own, so don't try and break away - you're being tailed.

The official instruction describing your response is: "Rock your wings, follow the Typhoon, turn away from London".

If you're in a slow machine like a light aircraft or helicopter, your interceptor may be an RAF helicopter with a crewman standing at the open side door with a big notice reading FOLLOW ME. Do it. 

It doesn't say what happens if you fail to follow the procedure. I'll leave that to your imagination.

The Faroes and RNP

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This shot of the runway at Vagar, Faroe Islands is copied from Atlantic Airways' inflight magazine Atlantic Review. It's not a recent photograph, and things have changed since then. Not dramatically, but significantly.

This blog post complements the previous one which describes - in pictures - the first commercial operation into Vagar by Atlantic Airways' new Airbus A319, using the new RNP-AR satellite-guided precision approach procedure.

Here we look at some of the enabling changes that led to the introduction of RNP, and the challenges faced by this airline that serves the Faroe Islands.

Runway in the magazine.JPGSince this shot was taken, the magnetic pole has shifted a little, and the runway designation is no longer 13/31, it's 12/30. It has also been lengthened to prepare for A319 operations.

An Atlantic Airways shot (below) taken from above the approach to 30, also before the runway was lengthened, gives a good picture of the terrain aviators face approaching the other end - runway 12.

App to 30 Vagar.jpgHere (below) is the approach to 30 on the newly lenthened runway, which I took from the A319 on its first commercial schedule, inbound from Copenhagen on 28 March.

Final 3.jpgVagar's runway has been lengthened from 1,250m to 1,799m (5,847ft) by extending both ends on raised embankments. Here are the approach light stanchions for runway 12 in the shadow of the raised runway threshold...

App lights to 12.2.jpgAlso evident in the magazine picture is that Atlantic's entire fleet of BAE Systems Avro RJs had converged on Vagar that day. They didn't have the A319 at the time. They still have some RJs now as well as the Airbus.

The approach to runway 12 is reckoned to be the more picturesque, but I didn't get to fly it in the aeroplane. 

However Atlantic Airways' chief executive Magni Arge took me for a brief drive along the fjord that channels the final approaches. This shot looks along the water toward runway 12

View of rwy 12 app path 2.jpg
...and here is a chart showing how the various RNP approaches to 12 all end up flowing along the inlet toward the runway

Z appch to 12.JPGHere's how it looks when you get a little closer to the runway 12 threshold, but seen from sea level...

Rwy 12 threshold from below.jpgYou can see the raised threshold area for 12.

Meanwhile, since that time Atlantic have sent me a beautiful picture of the 12 approach taken from above the inlet on a perfect day...

App to 12 Vagar.jpgThat picture was also taken before the runway was lengthened, but it gives a perfect picture of how the terrain intrudes on the left side of the approach path, forcing a right turn on short final for 12.

There is also some interesting terrain waiting for the unwary at the entrance to the inlet...

View 3.jpgBelow is a picture of Magni Arge addressing the passengers and crew at Copenhagen Kastrup before the first scheduled commercial A319 trip to Vagar. A historic moment for Atlantic, and for the Faroes.

Magni Arge.jpgThey arrived on time, and safely.

Thumbnail image for Aircraft on Vagar pan.jpg




On final for the Faroes: Europe's first RNP letdown in pictures

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Atlantic Airways took delivery of its one and only Airbus A319 a bit more than a week ago. It's fitted with special features to help get it into its remote, storm-battered, terrain-surrounded home base at Vagar, Faroe Islands.

I've just flown in there on Atlantic's first A319 commercial schedule serving its main route, Copenhagen - Vagar. That's the new machine (below), on the pan at its home base during its first working turnaround.

Aircraft on Vagar pan.jpgThe aeroplane is the hero of this Nordic saga, the new approach to Vagar is the storyline. Vagar has Europe's first EASA-approved required navigation performance (RNP 0.1) satellite guided precision approach system. Normal navigation aids would be no good because terrain makes ILS useless there, so visual approaches used to be the only option until last Woden's Day (sorry, last Wednesday).

During winter, that means the schedule couldn't operate a lot of the time. And if the crew takes a risk on a marginal weather forecast and it doesn't work out, the nearest diversions are in Iceland, Norway or Scotland.

Atlantic got me clearance to occupy the jump seat on the CPH - FAE route.

To me, the Faroe Islands had previously been just a name in the shipping forecast broadcast by the BBC on medium wave radio around northern Europe. So on departure from CPH heading north west we traversed sea areas Fisher, South Utsire, Viking and Fair Isle before entering Faroes.

Atlantic's A319 has a single-class 144-seat cabin with special provision for medevac cases. It's navigation system (RNP AR 0.1) was developed by Airbus subsidiary Quovadis, which also designed the approach and departure procedures, working with the airline.


The aircraft is fitted with the most powerful CFM International engines on any Airbus A319 - the 27,000lb thrust-rated CFM56-5B/7 - to improve its single-engine performance because of the terrain at either end of Vagar's runway. Other unique features include a single head-up display for the pilot (still working up to operational status), and a so-called "Florence kit" giving the A319 lower approach speeds and improved braking.

We began our descent toward Vagar as we entered sea area Faroes, when we first saw the waypoints/navaids cluster appearing on the navigation display.

Descent display 1.jpg

We're talking to Vagar, and know we'll be landing on runway 30.

The first choice for approach is a Y descent to 30, which looks like this...

Chart app Y rwy 30.jpg

We'll be using BUREM as the initial approach fix, so we're more or less straight in, with a couple of gentle curves to follow.

But then we hear that the wind direction has backed to 300deg, so the crew decides to switch to the Z approach, which is even straighter...

Chart app Z rwy 30.jpg

That's the thing about area navigation approaches: you get lots of choice if it's needed, and for approaches to Vagar, wind direction really matters, because the terrain-generated turbulence can be fearsome. The crew's local knowledge of the microclimate on approach to either end of the runway here really matters when conditions are marginal. For this reason, the RNP approaches are optimised to imitate the visual approaches that the pilots would have chosen to carry out if they had the same winds but visual flight conditions.


Suddenly the south eastern islands in the archipelago start showing up on the nav display. We can't see them yet because of cloud...

Descent display 3.jpg
...oh yes we can...

Islands through the mist.jpg...and terrain out on the right there...

Approach terrain.jpg...and look, runway in sight! Mind you, only just, if you know where to look...

Runway in sight 1.jpg...yess! there it is...

Runway in sight 2.jpgThe glideslope is a little steeper than normal at 3.7deg. The RNP system is delivering perfectly. This is all automatically flown so far, but not for much longer...

Looks good. The newly-lengthened runway is 1,799m long (in early December it was only 1,250m). I think we'll go manual...

Final 2.jpgSteady as she goes...

Final 3.jpg...there's quite a hump in the middle of the runway...

...now flare...

Flare.jpg...I think that constitutes an arrival...

...there's the terminal...

Vagar terminal.jpgQuite a welcoming party (below) has turned out to see Atlantic's new baby!

Vagar stand.jpgAfter all, this specially kitted A319 is going to make air connections during the Faroes' winter reliable for the first time in history. That's something to celebrate!

Capt Johan i Nioristovu.jpgWell done Captain Johan í Nirdistovu...

Copilot captain.jpg...well done copilot Hans Skindhøj (who is also a Captain),

and well done Atlantic Airways. Setting up Europe's first satellite-guided precision approach has been a lot of work, and there is yet more to do to prove and refine it and get the approach minima as low as they can go.

It's spring here. OAT 6degC, Latitude 62degN. Not as far north as Iceland, but nearly.

A bit later I'll show you what it's like on terra firma in the Faroes. But I only had a 1h turnaround to take some pix, so I couldn't stray far before re-boarding for CPH.



Why fly?

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This was sent to me by a friend, Rory Kay who, as he says, "flies big aeroplanes for a big company". It's his reaction to "Why just marvel?...why not fly?"

As a 54 year old pilot flying big planes for a big company, I frequently 
ask myself why I am still doing it, and what the attraction is, 
especially at 3 am at 30 West over the Atlantic, plotting out a course 
to go around a nest of storms.  A somewhat cynical response to myself, 
usually to atop the conversation in my head, is "It's the money 
stupid!"   or "It's all you know how to do you moron; you can't even 
change a light bulb without plunging half of Virginia into darkness!"

And then I usually develop the thoughts, and allow myself to drift back 
to when I was a nipper growing up in Guernsey in the 60's, and the most 
wonderful memories come flooding back.  I grew up next to the airport at 
La Villiaze, and it was easy and safe to walk or bike to the spotter's 
area, and just hang out.  I was fascinated at all the types of aircraft 
taking off and landing, sometimes in quite an entertaining manner, 
depending on the winds.  I recall long lazy summer holidays spent 
watching with awe the Bristol Freighters, the Aero 145's, the Viscounts, 
the Herons, the Daks, the Heralds, the Carvairs, the Cessnas, Austers 
and Pipers, thinking, "I want to do that".  And I remember all the 
pilots in those days in Guernsey, the WW2 veterans flying DC 3's for 
BEA, Intra, Morton Air Services, Aurigny, with their fine uniforms 
adorned with in some cases with their service medals. There was 
Aurigny's Pat Swoffer contentedly puffing away on his pipe as he walked 
through the terminal, with that kindly smile, or Bill Stewart sitting up 
there in the cockpit of the Intra Dakota, with his headset on over his 
hat, and I thought they were God-like.  Occasionally one would even talk 
to me! And I thought, "I want to be one of them!"

I did not think "I am GOING to do that" when I was 8 or 9, because it 
did not occur to me that I could find a way to fulfil those dreams.  
That came later.  Just hanging out was good enough then.

Fast forward a few years to 15.  I still had the long lazy summer to 
look forward to, but there was an added dimension to consider - a clear 
need for money.  A need for money, and a love of watching aeroplanes 
fly....so I wandered on impulse into the local Aero Club, and said I 
wanted a job.  The interview lasted about 15 seconds, and I was duly 
"employed" to clean the Cessna 150's in exchange for occasional 
flights.  I couldn't believe it; and it came true for me.  Lots of 
flights with club members and an occasional more formal lesson, one of 
the first of which was stalling and spinning to see if I could be put 
off.  I most certainly could not.

Then it was 17th birthday and I soloed on a warm June morning.  From 
then on it never occurred to me that I should do anything else.  I just 
ached to get in a plane and fly it.

You have to try it to understand and appreciate what it feels like.  Not 
flying Microsoft Simulator, not sitting in the back of an airliner.  You 
have to fly.  To me it is almost a narcotic.  I dread the day when I 
cannot fly.

Since that first solo, I have flown as an instructor at Oxford, a bush 
pilot in Africa, a corporate pilot at Luton, and an airline pilot and 
check airman flying many narrow and wide body planes around the world.  
I stopped counting the hours years ago.  They matter not a fig any more.

What I do know is that in all the high tech flying I have done, nothing 
compares to handling the basic single engine planes that brought me to 
this place.  Lazy cross countries across France in a 150, aeros in a Cub 
or a Chippy - it is impossible to beat that feeling.

For all the grumbling we do as professional pilots, the stolen pensions, 
the (in our case) 40% wage reductions, the reporting for duty at 10 pm 
for a 12 hour flight, the plate of pig's swill presented to me that is 
my dinner, I am constantly reminded of one solid truth...

They can take away many things from me, my pay, my pension, but they 
will never take away my pride at being a pilot; it is the most wonderful 
experience to sit in that Chipmunk or Cessna cockpit and just fly.   No 
radios, no GPS, no Flight Director, no Autopilot, no co-pilot whining 
about everything imaginable, eyeing my seat intently.

Just fly.

And he sent this: 

Biggles.jpg.JPG


Heathrow: the third runway could become inevitable

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Airport expansion in the London area is firmly back on the political agenda, having been kicked into the long grass by the present coalition government when it took power.


Meanwhile, saturated London Heathrow's desirability as a major hub on the world's great trunk routes is under threat, and there are signs of panic in government ranks as the significance of this for the UK economy dawns.

Politically, all options are now back on the cards, including a Thames Estuary location for a massive Heathrow-replacement airport. But the option of a Third Runway at Heathrow is still there, looming dangerously because it is the quickest, cheapest workable solution to London's increasingly dire runway capacity shortage.

And the longer the government dithers, the more attractive the third runway option will become, until it becomes completely inevitable.

The nightmare scenario is that the Third Runway is given the go-ahead, but as a temporary solution while a massive Estuary Hub - and all the transport links to it - is created.