Bombardier's CSeries family, the new specifications of which were revealed here, is poised to become a serious threat to the Boeing 737-700. So says analyst Jacques Kavafian, who, after recently attending a
Kavafian has backed away from that launch prediction somewhat. He now says: "The timing for the CSeries could not get any better and we believe that the aircraft will be launched this year; it may or may not be at Farnborough this July."
Howevver, in his latest research note, Kavafian says soaring fuel prices "make the CSeries very compelling to the extent that we believe it now seriously threatens the Boeing 737-700 as a viable product". The potential market, he estimates, may exceed the 6,000 that Bombardier has estimated over the next 20 years.
Kavafian argues that the CSeries will have a minimum $3.1 million per year operating cost advantage over the newest product such as the Boeing 737-700 and over $6 million cost advantage over older aircraft models such as MD-80s and Boeing 737 Classics.
The largest advantage of the CSeries, he says, is that, according to Bombardier's estimates, the aircraft has a 21% to 29% block fuel advantage over the 737 "having similar seating capacity and passenger range".
He adds: "The economics are more compelling for the 130-seat version, but even the 110-seat version of the aircraft has cost savings over the Boeing 737-700. The main competing aircraft of the CSeries will be the Boeing 737-600, 737-700, Airbus A318 and A319."
I recently had a very interesting conversation with Henri Courpron, a former Airbus procurement chief who now heads the aerospace division at consultancy Seabury. Courpron believes "the door was left open by Airbus and Boeing" in the 100-class sector, a void that several manufacturers are now seeking to fill with large regional jets.
"From the large guys' perspective, I think it's fair to say that Airbus and Boeing's venture into the 100-seater has not been at all a success. The A318 had very limited sales and the 737-600 was not exactly a rock star either," says Courpron.
Airbus and Boeing continue to delay decisions on when they will develop successors to their highly-popular A320 and 737NG models. The two airframers are willing to take the chance that Bombardier and others will gain a portion of the small narrowbody market, says Courpron.
"For them there is a lot more at stake than just trying to play defence with what might happen with new entrants in the 100-seater market because what they need to decide for the future is what happens in the 125- to 250-seat segment. And this is where the major battle will take place. It is not around 100 seats."
At its highest density, the CSeries 130, 130ER and new 130XT variants can seat 145 passengers.
on July 2, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply
With all do respect for Mr. Kavafian, I think he's stating the oblivious.
The 100 seat market in currently saturated with product, not to mention Boeing's hugely diverse 737 product line. There are airlines out there who have entire fleets of 737's of varying sizes and configuration. The C-series will never do that. While I agree the "C" is a logical evolution to Bombardier's product line, my view is they will be "dukeing it out" to compete in this active market space. The GTF is not exclusive to Bombardier and can be hung on virtually any wing, providing a major "C" product advantage to any airframer. Boeing and Airbus are already working on a single isle replacement and are not going to give this segment up easily.
on July 7, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply
And yet Boeing and Airbus continue to push back the date for a successor. If they wait until the latter part of the next decade (which now looks likely), they might find themselves behind the curve.