After I pestered Lockheed Martin Vice President Steve O'Bryan over F-35A numbers at yesterday's press conference, the company asked their analysts in Fort Worth to provide a complete explanation.

As you may recall, I asked O'Bryan how Lockheed could continue to say that the US Air Force will order 1,763 jets after the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) slashed the number of theater strike wings to 10 or 11. Assuming a standard 72-aircraft wing, that adds up to only 720 to 792 combat-coded jets, far below Lockheed's official number for the F-35. 

I've received an email from Lockheed's analysts this morning, which I excerpt below.

I assume all the strike wings are F-35. This would mean replacement of all F-16s, A-10s and F-15Es with F-35. As of now, it is reasonable to assume all the A-10s and F-15Es would reach their life during the USAF buy of F-35s (~ 2035) with no other tactical strike platform to replace their full capability other than F-35.

 

For air superiority, I'm assuming 2 wings of F-22s and the remaining 4 are F-35s. (In reality, there are only 1 2/3 wing equivalents F-22s.)

 

This leads to 14-15 wings of F-35s. The table below uses historic USAF bottoms-up approach for force structure requirements. As you can see, with 15 wings, the requirement is over 1,700 F-35s. This is certainly in the noise of 1,763 when we are talking about aircraft procured 25 years from now.

Lockheed Martin today bravely faced a packed briefing room fully of reporters inside their chalet at the Singapore Airshow. I will give Lockheed VP Steve O'Bryan credit for taking our onslaught of skepticism. It would have been easier to cancel the event given the F-35 program's leadership and development turmoil that started on Monday. There is no other way to say it: A gap is growing between the facts we know and the statements we hear from Lockheed's representatives. The video above provides a glimpse of the exasperation -- presumably felt on both sides -- as the press conference went along. 

I write about the KC-X tanker competition, so I naturally think that building a tanker is a complex undertaking requiring at least one decade to sign a contract, and at least two major acquisition scandals followed by a political stalemate and a transatlantic trade war.

But it's refreshing to remember that there are still some parts of the world where green-lighting a new tanker program is a relatively straightforward affair.

Inside the exhibit hall at the Singapore Airshow, Israel Aerospace Industries' Bedek group is showing off their new concept for a multimission tanker transport based on used 767-200s. Why buy a used tanker when you could buy one off Boeing's production line? An IAI executive replies: "Buying a new one we believe is a waste of money."

Well, that just seems scandalous.

I was stuck in briefings and interviews all afternoon, but Flightglobal's team of photographers captured Singapore's very military-oriented flying display. As I've noted before, this airshow is the F-111's international curtain call, so it's the last time you'll see the "dump and burn" trick anywhere (the US Air Force called it the "zippo"). The Royal Australian Air Force plans to retire the F-111 in December. But it may not be the last time American spotters see the jet, or so I hear. Note to spotters: Keep an eye out for the skies over China Lake in July.

Meanwhile, please take a look at Flight's first online and highly interactive daily newspaper for the Singapore Airshow. It took our staff a bit of getting used to, but I'm even surprised at how good the final product looks!

Flightglobal Insight's Fighter Radars Special Report 2010 is brought to you in association with Raytheon and provides an overview on the fighter radar market. The report focuses on products currently available or being developed by Western and Russian manufacturers.

 

Download the Fighter Radars Special Report for FREE.

Last March, Boeing unveiled the V-tailed F-15 Silent Eagle. The idea was to offer a "stealthy" F-15 that could be used in a first-day-of-war scenario, penetrating protected airspace undetected. The idea also involves adding an internal weapons bay by modifying the F-15's conformal fuel tank, adding radar absorbent materials to the forward fuselage and cockpit bubble, and integrating a digital electronic warfare suite. But the V-tailed F-15 design was the most visible alteration of the nearly 40-year-old fighter design.

Alas, Mark Bass, Boeing's F-15 vice president, told me today the V-tail did not make the cut for the flight test program. The V-tail also won't be offered initially to South Korea, the F-15SE's first potential buyer, he says. Of course, he adds, the V-tail could come back -- <cough> I'm looking at you -- if a customer -- <cough-cough> Air Combat Command -- wants it. Ahem.

Brig Gen David "Duncan" Heinz has lost his job at the F-35 program, a position he inherited only about a year ago from Maj Gen Charles Davis, who is now the commanding officer at the Air Armament Center. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is holding Heinz accountable mostly for the results of decisions made under Davis' watch, but maybe that's the way it goes. Although, to be fair, Heinz was Davis' deputy, so he's also at least partly responsible for the problems the F-35 program now faces. But it was also clear that Heinz adopted a different approach than his predecessor. Davis demanded that Lockheed meet first flight targets, even if the jets were not ready to enter the flight test program. Heinz changed the philosophy, allowing Lockheed to deliver the largely ceremonial first flight late if it meant the program got a more complete jet.

The question that now will be surely asked is whether Lockheed could -- or should -- make a similar leadership change. After all, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that he will withhold $614 million in performance fees from the company. In an interview this morning at the Singapore Airshow, I asked George Standridge if Lockheed could make a leadership change. Standridge, a Lockheed vice president for business development, avoided making a direct reply, but acknowledged that Lockheed accepts the DOD will hold the company accountable for its performance.

SINGAPORE -- The Changi exhibition centre is slow today, but filling up rapidly. The Singapore Airshow 2010 officially opens here tomorrow. We'll see a couple of interesting things here this week. The F-111 could make perhaps its final appearance outside Australia, which is retiring the venerable fighter-bomber later this year. Meanwhile, the US Air Force has allowed the A-10 to come out and play for the first time at an Asian air show. 

Armed with a media pass and a Sony Webbie HD camera, I walked the static line and exhibit halls this morning looking for anything new or interesting. I found a few interesting things, which are profiled in the video above. In order of appearance after my narrated clip, you'll see:

• Singapore's G550 conformal airborne early warning (CAEW), making its first public appearance [read full story],
• Lockheed Martin's F-35 mock-up in Singapore colors,
• Boeing F-15SG simulator,
• CATIC's line-up of Chinese fighters and UAVs, including (right to left) FC-1, L-15, JF-17, Y-8 and ASN-206,
• IAI's mock-up for a new Boeing 767 multi-role tanker transport,
• IAI's Bird Eye 650 UAV, the first time I've seen this aircraft.
  

This potentially inflammatory item appeared yesterday in an English-language newsletter by the aerospace industry intelligence arm of France's ADIT firm:

Are we about to witness one of the most heartbreaking divorces in the aerospace industry? To be followed by a groundbreaking new engagement?

According to an unconfirmed report - I repeat: UN-CON-FIR-MED- from a French industry newsletter, EADS is reviewing radically its strategy in the United States. So far, EADS' presence in America - represented by Ralph Crosby - was based on a somewhat difficult but close relationship with Northrop Grumman. But this era could be over. Disappointed by the poor results of the KC-X air tanker campaign, Tom Enders is now courting.... Lockheed Martin as EADS's partner of choice in the US. The objective of the talks would be to create a strategic transatlantic alliance between the two giants, aimed at opening up each other's markets and rebalancing their respective portfolios. ...

 

Moreover, according to the (read my lips: unconfirmed) report, EADS could let Lockheed have an industrial share in the civilian A350 program, marking Lockheed's re-entry to the civil aerospace market. And provided Lockheed helps market the A400M in the US alongside the C-130J, the American giant could have better access to the semi-closed European defense market.

 Email to The Bulletin newsletter are available by sending an email to thebulletin@adit.fr.