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A lost decade

Quick: Name the last time that the US Air Force successfully signed a contract for an all-new aircraft, competitively-sourced, that wasn't later canceled or indefinitely postponed due to legal challenges?

Answer: October 26, 2001, or nearly seven years ago.

That was the date when then-Secretary of the Air Force Jim Roche announced that Lockheed Martin won the Joint Strike Fighter competition. To their eternal regret, I believe, Boeing did not file a protest.

(Of course, even in that case, the JSF joint program office -- led by US Marine Corps Maj Gen Mike Hough -- actually managed the competition. The air force happened to be JSF's "executive agency" at the time, which gave Roche the right to announce the winner.)

The last time the air force successfully managed and signed a contract for an all-new, manned aircraft was in 2000 for the Boeing C-40B. But, in that case, there was no competition and the air force simply gave Boeing the contract. (The USAF has signed a contract since then for the unmanned MQ-9 Reaper, but that was also sole-sourced and based on the design of the MQ-1 Predator.)

Since 2001, the air force has failed even once to successfully select an all-new aircraft after a competition. Failed attempts include the original lease-buy deal for 100 KC-767s in 2003, and the E-10A program that was canceled in 2005.

Moreover, the CSAR-X contract remains in competition after the Government Accountability Office twice over-turned the air force's selection of the Boeing CH-47. And now, of course, the second attempt to replace the USAF's oldest KC-135Es is again tied up in GAO purgatory.

Compare that to the navy's record over the same period. Since 2001, the navy, which has other priorities besides buying new aircraft, has successfully signed contracts for P-8A, VH-71 and CH-53K. (Granted, the execution of the VH-71 deal has been problematic, but they at least manged to sign the contract.) Another contract -- for the Broad Area Maritime Surveillance program -- is signed, but its status is pending a GAO protest verdict.

The army hasn't done so so bad either. Since 2001, the army gave up on the RAH-66, but signed contracts for three manned aircraft: the UH-70 UH-72 light utility helicopter, the ARH-72 ARH-70 and the Joint Cargo Aircraft. (Granted, again, that execution on the ARH-72 ARH-70 deal has been rough.) The army also held a successful competition for a major UAV contract, awarding the extended-range, multi-purpose (ER/MP) contract to General Atomics for the MQ-1C Sky Warrior.

Sure, contract execution is up-and-down, but the air force's sister services are at least able to sign contracts for new aircraft.

Indeed, you have to go all the way back to the YF-22/YF-23 fly-off in 1991 to find the last time the air force successfully managed a competition and completed a contract signing for an all-new, manned aircraft that eventually entered the inventory. (I don't count the C-130J because it was not competed, and, in fact, was forced on the air force by Lockheed's allies in Congress. The RQ-4 Global Hawk and the RQ-1 Predator were also handed to the air force by Congress. Likewise for the variety of business jets also acquired by the air force since 1991.)

Amazing, right?

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