F-35 vs 787, part 4: The Finale

So far, so\ngood.

But what happens\nwhen the annual output rate basically triples from 2010 to 2012 (12 to 32 + a\nfew foreign orders), then almost quadruples from 2012 to 2014 (32+ to 118+)?

F-35\nprogram manager Lt. Gen. Charles Davis, who I interviewed last month, told me he\nalready is seeing the strains of simultaneous ramp-ups for both JSF and the 787\nas he visits production sites worldwide. \"I'm fighting for space in the plant that's\nfor 787 stuff,\" Davis\nsaid.

Davis also takes a philosophical view on\nthe causes of recent production system meltdowns for any aerospace program,\nincluding the 787. The increasing sophistication of tools for designing aircraft\nhas simply outpaced the progress in manufacturing technology and capacity,\ncreating an unhealthy imbalance as programs transition from the development to\nthe production phase.

The JSF\nprogram is hoping to cope with this phenomenon by investing an extra \$1.5\nbillion in upfront tooling, mainly to bring second-source suppliers, such as\nTAI in Turkey and Terma in Denmark, up to quality and rate standards for\nthe F-35 program, Davis\nsaid. He describes the \$1.5 billion investment as a necessary cost growth in\nthe beginning of the program that will pay huge dividends by the sixth and\nseventh years of production, as the monthly production rate exceeds 10\naircraft.

Behind the scenes,\nthe US and UK industry partners are working intensely with other foreign manufacturers\nthat will serve as second source suppliers on critical parts in the full-rate\nproduction phase. Northrop Grumman's Randy Secor, a vice president for the F-35\nprogram, told me earlier this month that TAI's employees have been trained on the\nproduction line with Northrop's mechanics and assemblers. \"Lack of a critical\npart at a single supplier will stop you dead in your tracks,\" Secor said.

But F-35\nindustry officials are also realistic about the difficulty of staying on track\nas the production rate escalates after 2012. Secor told me that he expects \"huge\nchallenges\" with meeting the one aircraft per day target after 2016, but it is\nachievable if the entire industry team works together to solve the problems\nthat arise rather than pointing fingers.