Russia Air Force after Georgia, part 3

On 9 August a Tu-22M3-R was shot down near Gori, with one crewmember dead (navigator Major Igor Rzhavitin) and two (commander Colonel Igor Zinov and second pilot Major Vyacheslav Malkov) taken prisoners.

The loss of such a valuable aircraft is humiliating for the Russian air force and also for the Kremlin, as the captured pilots were being widely featured in the mass media.

On 18 August, Moscow exchanged fifteen prisoners of war for five of her own. Zinov and Malkov were placed into Moscow hospitals, where they were visited by Vladimir Putin.

Ex-president, now prime-minister, was accompanied by defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov and air force commander Aleksandr Zelin. Since many things in modern Russia are decided by mister Putin, his hospital visit and lengthy talks to both pilots may produce an outcome. This is all the more due in the view of long overdue decision on future of the type in Russian service.

Russia's Long Range Aviation inventory consists of 16 Tu-160 and 74 Tu-95MS intercontinental bombers, as well as 124 "Euro strategic" Tu-22M3.

Upgrade solutions for the first two types have been tested and certified, and are now being implemented. At the same time, the Tu-22M3 has remained "as is", due to funding constrains. In mid-1990s the air force was going to withdraw the type after the fleet's calendar lifetimes expire, in order to save money on keeping Tu-160 and Tu-95MS in service. The situation is changing. Firstly, the Kremlin has the money and the will to maintain strategic bombers as a means of "active deterrence".

With Russia-NATO and Russia-US relations cooling, the Kremlin may take back its long-held promise on in-flight refueling systems on the Tu-22M.

During talks on strategic weapon reductions, Leonid Brezhnev promised Jim Carter that the entire Tu-22 fleet would not have in-flight capability, without which it could not strike targets in the US homeland.

Today, a thorough modernization of the Tu-22M3 fleet, with focus on electronic warfare means, accurate navigation, extended range and lifetime can help the Kremlin boost the might of its strategic aviation in a cost-effective way.

This seems especially attractive in the medium term, when Tu-95s start to leave service due to expiring lifetimes.

In the meantime, the Kremlin is considering whether to continue Tu-160 production or spend on a next-generation bomber.

The Tu-160 is very expensive, unnecessary large and complicated. Besides, its maker Kazan aviation plant is in a pretty difficult condition. The plant can assemble only two more Tu-160s before parts stock runs out. Resumption of parts production is unlikely for many reasons, including economical.

Perhaps, the Kremlin would find it suitable to order Kazan assembly of a few Tu-22M3 aircraft from the existing parts stock as an interim measure before a next-generation bomber becomes available.