Brazil has been very clear that the F-X2 contract is not just about buying fighters. It's also about rebuilding the country's once-proud defense industry, which has severely atrophied since its heydey in the 1980s. And apparently they mean business. We learn in the English-language version of the downselect earlier this week that Brasilia's objective is to jump right up into the aerospace big leagues. Here's my slightly clean-up version of the translated announcement:
"The set of acquired knowledge and technological qualification in this acquisition will contribute to the conditions that will have Brazil produce or participate in the production of a Fifth Generation fighter in the medium to long term future."
Hmmmm....Seeing as how the short list is the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Dassault Rafale and Saab Gripen NG, I'd have to think that the Super Bug is at the back of their list....It's really more 4th gen +.
I think that it will come down to tech transfers and price, with the French are desperate to make a sale, but the Swedes have a much cheaper plane.
Then again, when I make predictions, I am frequently wrong.