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EXCLUSIVE: Northrop Grumman's internal F/A-18 forecast (part 1)

fa18_programoverview.jpg
An internal Northrop Grumman presentation inadvertently posted on the public Internet provides a rare glimpse of the F/A-18 program's current manufacturing challenges and sales prospects over the next decade.

A cached snapshot of the 53-page presentation, dated 12 March 2008, has been preserved by the Google search engine on this web site:

http://74.125.77.132/search?q=cache:Q0nQkNCXX64J:https://oasis.northgrum.com/general/
docs/F-18EF_Supplier_Symposium031208.pdf+site:com+f-35+proprietary+ppt&hl=en&ct=
clnk&cd=15&gl=uk


(WARNING: Link contains presentation marked "proprietary level 1" by Northrop.)

Most illuminating is a slide revealing a potential delivery profile of new F/A-18E/Fs and EA-18Gs from 2006 to 2019. The chart reveals a proposal for an 18-aircraft plus-up by the USN in fiscal 2010 and 2011, and estimates a 100-aircraft buy in a third multi-year procurement deal that is currently under negotiation.

The slide also details the Boeing/Northrop strategy for winning sales from Australia and Canada -- two members of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter development partnership. Northrop projects possible further Australian orders for 6 EA-18Gs in 2013 and 24 F/A-18E/Fs from 2014-17. Canada is also listed as a potential buyer from 2015 to 2018 of 24 F/A-18E/Fs.

In some cases, Northrop's projections are already out-dated or curiously incomplete. Neither Brazil nor Denmark are listed on the slide as potential F/A-18 customers, despite Boeing's ongoing sales campaigns in both countries. Boeing has since decided to withdraw from the contract competition in Switzerland.

"Potential" F/A-18E/F and EA-18G delivery profile

200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
US Navy (F/A-18E/F)3727169
US Navy + UP (F/A-18E/F)414
US Navy (EA-18G)71422201631
US Navy FY10-13 MYP393230245
Australia10122
Australia Follow-on (EA-18G)6
Australia Follow-on (F/A-18E/F)6108
Japan599999
India216171918222210
Greece6888
Switzerland35653
Kuwait6882
Bulgaria3553
Malaysia8
Canada6882
Total445154546486927551392410

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