With the US Senate expected to vote on continued F-22 production later today,, retired general Richard Hawley, who led Air Combat Command from 1996 to 1999, spoke with The DEW Line contributor Dave Majumdar.
186 F-22 Raptors should comprise a sufficient force if the United States decides to shift its posture to fight only one major regional conflict at a time, Richard Hawley says.
But Hawley cautions that resourcing the military for such a posture poses significant risks. "Frankly, that's a gamble", he says. In over 200 years of modern military history, no strategist has ever been able to predict future conflicts, he notes.
What concerns Hawley more, he said, is that with the shift to a single major regional conflict focus comes the "temptation to under resource that force structure".
Based on prior experience, Hawley fears that future planners will be tempted to under-resource a single major war force structure. "We might find ourselves with a 0.6 major regional war force", Hawley stated bluntly.
While formally the United States has had two-war strategy for sometime, when Hawley retired from the USAF in 1999, the resources to fight two simultaneous wars were lacking. "We were, during that time, at a level of allocation where we were resourced to fight 1.6 or 1.7 major regional conflicts- depending upon the adversary. It's a judgment", Hawley said.
Hawley used the example of the British military in the years prior to
the First World War to illustrate his point. The British in the late
1800s, he said, shaped their forces to fight colonial wars, however,
within a few years they were embroiled in a continental war that they
had not predicted.
Gates' plan, Hawley said, would leave the United States vulnerable if a situation ever developed where the nation was engaged in a major regional conflict in one area of the world and an opportunistic peer threat made an aggressive move elsewhere. This is especially true, he said, if that peer threat were to be comprised of "all high-end forces. You don't want to be caught without anything left".
As an illustration, Hawley used the hypothetical scenario of a nuclear-armed Iran. Hawley explained that if the President felt compelled to intervene militarily under such circumstances, a US military "resourced for one major regional conflict" should suffice, unless something else erupted simultaneously.
"This is highly unlikely, but if a country like North Korea decided to take advantage of that situation" the United States would face some difficulties, Hawley said. He added however, that North Korea isn't a very "robust" threat. He explained that while the North Korean air defense system may pose some challenges, their air force poses practically no threat.
On the issue of the F-22, Hawley said that in Secretary Gates' view, the Raptor offers only a niche capability that is only useful against certain high-end threats.
This view, Hawley explains, makes the assumption that the F-22 has more capability than is needed in most cases. Hawley believes while that might be generally true, it is not prudent to make the assumption that the US will never face a high-end threat.
Hawley acknowledges that the "F-35 is a good fighter. In my estimation, it's the second best air superiority fighter in the world after the Raptor". However, the F-35 is not quite "able to match the F-22 in stealth capability", the General says. The lower stealth capability means that the F-35 can be detected from greater ranges than the Raptor.
The JSF is also "incapable of flying at the sustained altitudes that the F-22 can fly at", Hawley says. He explains, "Altitude is a big factor when defending against surface to air missile threats. SAMs run out of energy at high altitude and are not able to maneuver as effectively in the thin air" at 60 000 ft.
The third major advantage that Hawley cites of the F-22 over the F-35 is "sustained speed. The Raptor will sustain Mach 1.6, Mach 1.7. The F-35 is more conventional, with the nose down it'll do Mach 1.6, Mach 1.7, but for short periods".
Hawley expects that the F-35 will suffer from cost growth and delays similar to those experienced on other defense programs such as the F-22. Hawley also expects that the Defense Department "won't come close" to purchasing all of the 2400 planes currently in the program of record for the F-35.
Hawley is quick to point out, "Given the capabilities of 5th generation fighters, the United States can get by with a smaller number of F-22s and F-35s". Currently, Hawley explains, the Navy has 10 carrier air wings, the Marine Corps has three air wings, and the USAF has around 20 fighter wings. Hawley says that given the vastly improved capabilities of the Raptor and JSF, a smaller force could "meet US defense requirements adequately". Hawley suggests one possible force structure might include 14 to 15 fighter wings for the USAF. The sea services would retain the same number of wings for the Navy and USMC, however the number of airframes assigned could be reduced.
However, Hawley said that a fully resourced two-war strategy would require 381 Raptors when facing powers capable of challenging the US directly. However, a "moderate risk force" of about 250 Raptors should provide an adequate margin for the USAF under the two-war scenario, he said. The currently proposed 186 planes are suitable for only one major war at a time, Hawley emphasized.
Gates' plan, Hawley said, would leave the United States vulnerable if a situation ever developed where the nation was engaged in a major regional conflict in one area of the world and an opportunistic peer threat made an aggressive move elsewhere. This is especially true, he said, if that peer threat were to be comprised of "all high-end forces. You don't want to be caught without anything left".
As an illustration, Hawley used the hypothetical scenario of a nuclear-armed Iran. Hawley explained that if the President felt compelled to intervene militarily under such circumstances, a US military "resourced for one major regional conflict" should suffice, unless something else erupted simultaneously.
"This is highly unlikely, but if a country like North Korea decided to take advantage of that situation" the United States would face some difficulties, Hawley said. He added however, that North Korea isn't a very "robust" threat. He explained that while the North Korean air defense system may pose some challenges, their air force poses practically no threat.
On the issue of the F-22, Hawley said that in Secretary Gates' view, the Raptor offers only a niche capability that is only useful against certain high-end threats.
This view, Hawley explains, makes the assumption that the F-22 has more capability than is needed in most cases. Hawley believes while that might be generally true, it is not prudent to make the assumption that the US will never face a high-end threat.
Hawley acknowledges that the "F-35 is a good fighter. In my estimation, it's the second best air superiority fighter in the world after the Raptor". However, the F-35 is not quite "able to match the F-22 in stealth capability", the General says. The lower stealth capability means that the F-35 can be detected from greater ranges than the Raptor.
The JSF is also "incapable of flying at the sustained altitudes that the F-22 can fly at", Hawley says. He explains, "Altitude is a big factor when defending against surface to air missile threats. SAMs run out of energy at high altitude and are not able to maneuver as effectively in the thin air" at 60 000 ft.
The third major advantage that Hawley cites of the F-22 over the F-35 is "sustained speed. The Raptor will sustain Mach 1.6, Mach 1.7. The F-35 is more conventional, with the nose down it'll do Mach 1.6, Mach 1.7, but for short periods".
Hawley expects that the F-35 will suffer from cost growth and delays similar to those experienced on other defense programs such as the F-22. Hawley also expects that the Defense Department "won't come close" to purchasing all of the 2400 planes currently in the program of record for the F-35.
Hawley is quick to point out, "Given the capabilities of 5th generation fighters, the United States can get by with a smaller number of F-22s and F-35s". Currently, Hawley explains, the Navy has 10 carrier air wings, the Marine Corps has three air wings, and the USAF has around 20 fighter wings. Hawley says that given the vastly improved capabilities of the Raptor and JSF, a smaller force could "meet US defense requirements adequately". Hawley suggests one possible force structure might include 14 to 15 fighter wings for the USAF. The sea services would retain the same number of wings for the Navy and USMC, however the number of airframes assigned could be reduced.
However, Hawley said that a fully resourced two-war strategy would require 381 Raptors when facing powers capable of challenging the US directly. However, a "moderate risk force" of about 250 Raptors should provide an adequate margin for the USAF under the two-war scenario, he said. The currently proposed 186 planes are suitable for only one major war at a time, Hawley emphasized.
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