Does the US Air Force want to buy an all-new jet to replace the ubiquitous Northrop T-38C, or will it settle for an off-the-shelf option? Will the USAF be pressured to favor an all-US system, or will it be allowed to buy an aircraft with substantial foreign content?

How the USAF answers those questions could make or break one possible strategy Boeing is considering to win the $10 billion T-X contract.

According to my sources, Boeing believes the USAF wants a "purpose-built" jet to replace the T-38C, and, thus, could propose a new airframe packed with mature technologies. Click on the headline below to read my news article, which was published on Flightglobal.com this morning.

Boeing may propose new airframe to replace T-38s

By Stephen Trimble

Boeing could propose developing a "purpose-built" airframe as one of several options to replace the US Air Force's fleet of Northrop T-38 jet trainers, say industry officials.

The potential Boeing offer throws a twist into the competitive field for the T-X contract, which could be worth $10 billion and which the USAF has suggested could range from 350 to 500 new jets.

The USAF has a reputation -- perhaps unfairly -- for favoring aircraft performance over cost and development risk, especially when it comes to equipping its fighter pilots. But it's difficult to see how a new-start aircraft development program gets funded over the next several years, given obvious budget trends.

Gen Arthur Lichte, chief of Air Mobility Command, probably put it best. When I asked Lichte two weeks ago if the US Air Force would change its "more is better" philosophy on fuel offload for the KC-X contract winner, Lichte replied: "Certainly, when you are talking about replacing a tanker, fuel is important."

The draft request for proposals establishes requirements for minimum fuel offloads at five mission radius ranges: 500nm, 1,000nm, 1,500nm, 2,000nm and 2,500nm. Exceeding the minimum thresholds is not mandatory. But the USAF has establishing a scheme to award between 4-10 bonus points, depending on how much extra fuel is offloaded.

It is possible to compare the three aircraft based on fuel offload estimates provided in Boeing's latest public KC-X presentation. If Northrop Grumman/EADS North America disputes any of Boeing's data about the KC-30, I'm sure we'll hear about it. But here's how the three potential competitors -- KC-767, KC-30 and KC-777 -- compare against each other on fuel offload performance at a 1,000nm mission radius.

Minimum threshold: 94,000lb
                                         KC-767 offload: 97,000lb
4 Bonus points: 106,000lb
6 Bonus points: 120,500lb
8 Bonus points: 130,000lb 143,500lb
10 Bonus points: 147,000lb
                                        KC-30 offload: 153,000lb
                                        KC-777 offload: 199,000lb

If Boeing's data is accurate about the KC-30, the Northrop proposal would enjoy a 10pt advantage over the KC-767 if the USAF awards credit for non-mandatory fuel offload performance, and faces no penalty against KC-777 despite a roughly 30% disadvantage for offload capacity.

[UPDATE: I need to make a correction. KC-767 offload listed above is based on takeoff from a 7,000ft runway, while the KC-30 and KC-777 statistics are based on 10,000ft runway. I'll post a corrected figure for KC-767 based on offload at 1,000nm radius after takeoff from a 7,000ft runway as soon as possible.]

A US Marine Corps pilot posits in a very good new issue of Joint Forces Quarterly that the age of stealth domination in airpower is over.

Since the 1991 Gulf War, the USAF has launched thousands of stealth bombing sorties against the hardest targets offered by Baghdad, Belgrade and Baghdad again, yet suffered only one recorded combat loss when an F-117 was shot down over Serbia in 1999. Perhaps no other technology in history has dominated the battlefield as long or as absolutely as the stealthy airframe.

But technology marches on. Ask any World War II battleship captain. Lt. Col. Arend G. Westra, a plans officer at the 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing, writes that counter-stealth technology -- namely, passive radar -- is quietly achieving parity with the likes of the B-2, the F-22 and, eventually, the F-35.

Westra makes another important point. If there is a classified counter-stealth development program underway, it's not apparent from reading Westra's article. He argues that the US military and industry needs to launch a crash technology program. If anything, the technology could be leveraged to understand the techniques potential adversaries could use to shoot down our stealth aircraft.

An AleniaAermacchi test pilot provides a quick tour of the M346 hangar, where you can see all three of the jet trainers currently in existence. (Video by Stephen Trimble)

ROME -- Day 2 of the Alenia and Aermacchi press tour began in Venegono, near Milan, and ended in Rome. Venegono is where AleniaAermacchi designs, builds and tests the M346 advanced jet trainer, which goes into full production next year.

Aermacchi treated our humble press tour to a private flying display. Despite his undistinguished audience, chief flight test pilot Quirino Bucci gave a world-class show, manoeuvring across the M346 Master's currently cleared flight envelope from +7gs to -2gs. Bucci spectactularly closed the display by buzzing over our heads, but only after thoughtfully cutting power to the engines to spare our eardrums.  

This evening we arrived in Rome for a full day of briefings at Finmeccanica's corporate headquarters. Click on the links below to read the articles I wrote on the flight from Milan and the long drive into the city.

• AleniaAermacchi trains sights on US market for M346 sales
• AleniaAermacchi: Italian Air Force to sign M346 deal within weeks

The fourth C-27J in production for the US Air Force is on the final assembly line at Alenia's factory in Caselle, Italy, near Turin. This aircraft is one of four expected to deploy by next September or October. (Photo: Stephen Trimble)

CASELLE, Italy -- On the first of four days of the Alenia/Aermacchi press tour, I got an overview on the company and a briefing about the C-27J; toured production lines for the C-27J, Eurofighter and AMX; toasted champagne over a wonderful lunch; interviewed Alenia CEO Giovanni Bertoleone and flew in the C-27J jump-seat from Turin to Venegono, which is the focus of Day 2.

You can read the news from today's briefings by clicking the links below:

O Globo, a national Brazilian newspaper, asked online readers to vote on who would win the air force's F-X2 contract. Despite the hoopla about the now-disputed announcement on 7 September by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva declaring the Dassault Rafale the winner, the unscientific poll below showed the Saab Gripen with a comfortable lead. In the wake of the Rafale faux-selection, Saab apparently has offered to slash the Gripen's price in half for Brazil.

AleniaAermacchi is hosting a press tour this week in Italy. As you can see above, the itinerary includes stops in Turin, near Milan, Rome and Naples. Your humble correspondent gratefully accepted the invitation. (It's, um, a difficult assignment -- cough-cough -- but I'm a professional journalist and blogger; I'll do my best to make it through.)

I'll be mostly in an airport or on a plane for the next 14 hours, as my flight connects through Frankfurt. But here's a snapshot of the itinerary.

TUESDAY: Tour & briefings in Turin, the home of C-27J manufacturing.
WEDNESDAY: Tour & briefings in Venegono, home of AleniaAermacchi's trainer aircraft
THURSDAY: Briefings at Finmeccanica headquarters in Rome
FRIDAY: Observe G222 delivery ceremony to Afghan forces in Naples

I'll try to post daily updates. We've got a tight itinerary, and we're moving around quite a bit. So the updates may be subject to some delays.

I do hope to show you as many of the highlights of the tour as I can. It isn't often that AleniaAermacchi invites US journalists for a visit, so this will be a rare glimpse for an outsider to get a close-up look at their operations. 

Here's a pleasant thought: the core of the US military's airborne electronic attack weapons are useless against Russian S-400 integrated air defense systems currently for sale on the export market.

In unusually blunt language for an unclassified source, a US Navy document soliciting sources for a next generation jammer (NGJ) dismisses the current system as out-classed.

"The aging ALQ-99 [tactical jamming system] lacks the capability to match today's complex integrated air defense, communication, data link and non-traditional radio frequency (RF) threats," says the document, dated 15 September.

That assessment goes one giant step farther than the statement I got in February last year.  I had asked NGJ program manager Capt Steven Kochman to explain how NGJ was suddenly making progress after years of inaction. Kochman replied that a classified briefing to then-deputy secretary of defense Gordon England served to reverse the program's fortunes. The contents of the briefing are not public knowledge, but Kochman only allowed that the power of new surface to air radars stretch the limits of the ALQ-99's transmit range. Kochman didn't say that the ALQ-99 is already out-matched by the radars that can alert surface to air missiles, such as the SA-22, to the presence of incoming warplanes.

(Photo: US Navy)

Flightglobal's Craig Hoyle writes:

Saab celebrates first flight of Thai fighter

Thailand's first of at least six Saab Gripen C/Ds has made its first flight from the Swedish manufacturer's Linköping facility.

Flown by a Saab test pilot, the two-seat Gripen D completed its 80min debut sortie on 16 September.

"The Royal Thai Air Force will start their training on Gripen in Sweden next year, and the fighters will be delivered to Thailand in 2011," says Saab.

Thomas Ehrhard, of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, has published a fascinating monograph today with a recommended long-haul strategy for the US Air Force. The paper covers a lot of ground, but contains a particular focus on the USAF's deeply classified plans to start fielding a next-generation bomber force within the next 10 years. Ehrhard, who previously helped resuce the US Navy's X-47B program from cancellation, proposes his ideal strategy for a notional B-3 next generation bomber force of 130 aircraft, with a $16 billion development bill and a flyaway cost per aircraft of about $425 million.

• Block 10: 24 aircraft "... extremely stealthy, manned, nuclear capable bomber with low-risk components such as F-35 engines, sensors, and data links; and B-2 weapons, conformal sensors, and advanced laser infrared countermeasures (LAIRCM), towed decoys and jammers for self-protection"
• Block 20: 36 aircraft ... Integrate "first generation variable bypass engines" to increase endurance by 30%, active stealth, modular strike/ISR payload
• Block 30: 24 aircraft "... improved variable-bypass engines, high-altitude, low-drag 'Aeroservoelastic' (ASE) wings ... and sophisticated adaptable automated flight controls"... may also include directed-energy defensive systems
• Block 40: 36 aircraft ... "state-of-the-art processors, autonomous mission planning and avionics software and order-of-magnitude flight reliability"
• Block 50: 10 aircraft ... long-endurance, high-altitude for clandestine, penetrating ISR
  
  

For more than a year, the US Air Force has also been taking clunkers off the road -- with laser-guided AGM-65E Mavericks.

But, lacking the funds to buy new AGM-65Es from Raytheon, the USAF and the manufacturer has come up with a unique financing approach that is somewhat similar to the Obama Administration's "cash-for-clunkers" program.



The project began when the US Navy loaned the USAF about 150 AGM-65Es. USAF F-16 and A-10 pilots needed the high-speed missiles to strike insurgents fleeing after planting improvised explosive devices (IEDs), usually in pick-up trucks (aka 'clunkers'). The missiles are thus clunker-plunkers.

To finance the purchase, Raytheon Missile Systems is taking old IR- and TV-guided missiles out of the USAF's arsenal, upgrading them, and selling them to foreign customers. For example, Taiwan and South Korea recently placed a joint order for AGM-65s worth $70 million. Raytheon credits a portion of that amount -- about $14 million -- to the USAF's account to buy the new laser-guided weapons.

Hey, whatever gets more fuel-guzzlers off the road, right?

When the US Air Force announced on February 29, 2008 that Northrop Grumman/EADS North America beat Boeing for the KC-X contract, a reporter asked the chief of Air Mobility Command -- Gen Arthur Lichte -- why. Here's that exchange:

Q: And just to follow, did size matter in this issue? I mean, the KC-30 is twice as large as the 767. Did that play into cost savings, and was that an issue in this decision?

 

GEN. LICHTE: Well, I -- from a warfighter's perspective, and I know the team looked at a whole number of things, but from my perspective, I can sum it up in one word: more.

 

More passengers, more cargo, more fuel to offload, more patients that we can carry, more availability, more flexibility and more dependability. And so from my aspect, the team did tremendous work and now we will take that and put it into the fight.

The underlying philosophy behind that statement ultimately played a role in the undoing of the original contract award. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) ruled that the US Air Force communicated the opposite message to Boeing during the competition, among several other issues.

We won't know whether Lichte's "more" strategy remains in effect until the Office of the Secretary of Defense or the US Air Force releases a draft request for proposals, which is expected before October.

But that may be the key reason why Boeing offers the KC-767 or KC-777, with the latter obviously carrying more fuel, more cargo and more patients than Northrop's Airbus A330-200-based KC-45 proposal.

In Gen Lichte's press conference at the AFA convention yesterday, I reminded Lichte about his comments on February 29, 2008, and asked him if his "more" philosophy had changed.

Lichte replied that he would not pre-empt the details from the draft RFP. But he added that "our requirements are pretty much the same", although several overlapping requirements have been consolidated into a single requirement.

But is having more fuel offload still a key factor for the competition?

"Certainly, when you are talking about replacing a tanker, fuel is important," Lichte said.

Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works today division unveiled this aircraft concept at the Air Force Association's annual convention in Washington DC. The USAF plans to buy the MQ-X to augment and replace the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial systems (UAS). I snapped this picture of the Skunks' MQ-X concept on display in their exhibit area, as well as this chart below. No subject matter experts were immediately available to comment on this particular design for the MQ-X requirement.

Few reporters have been as critical -- and insightful -- about the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter as my friend Bill Sweetman, editor of Defense Technology International magazine. Sweetman attended the program's press conference today at the AFA 2009 convention, and asked the question below.

Ford is actually boasting that the 2010 Taurus safety radar somehow compares to the Lockheed Martin F-22's sensor. Behold:

Car harnesses fighter jet technology

By Maggie Shiels Technology reporter, BBC News, San Francisco

The Ford motor company has harnessed technology from the F22 fighter jet as part of its bid to make its new Taurus "America's smartest full-sized sedan".

Radar devices are aimed at helping avoid crashes by sounding an alarm and flashing red lights when the driver gets too close to another car.

This hi-tech gadget is just one of a host being used by Ford to revive what was once the company's top seller. ...

"F22 fighter jets use this advanced radar that can read down the road and identify everything from trees to people," said Pete Reyes, Ford's chief engineer for the 2010 Taurus.

"We then added our own Ford algorithms to determine whether or not objects are a 'vehicle target'.

"Then it monitors the vehicle target and always knows your position relative to those vehicle targets," explained Mr Reyes.

Give me a break! If Ford appropriated a single line of software code from the F-22 radar -- the Northrop Grumman APG-77 (shown above) -- the government would instantly shut down the Taurus' Chicago assembly plant until it complies with ITAR. Not to mention the price: Unless the 2010 Taurus' MSRP is in the $1 million to $2 million range, even with the dealer discount, I submit the F-22's radar technology remains safely limited to  stealthy-yet-speedy-and-agile fighters.

Boeing would double F/A-18E/F Super Hornet production next year if Senate appropriators are successful.

The US Navy asked for $1 billion to buy 9 F/A-18E/Fs in Fiscal 2010. But Senate appropriators added another $1 billion to buy a total of 18, according to a press release (which I overlooked yesterday) by Sen Kit Bond, who represents the Super Hornet's manufacturing base in Missouri.

Boeing would also build another 22 EA-18G Growlers that were already funded in the defense appropriations bill.

Boeing confirms it has proposed building new OV-10s with upgraded avionics and weapons for the US Air Force light attack contract.

Subscription-only Inside the Air Force broke the news this morning.

Boeing provided the photo above, providing a glimpse of the new OV-10 concept. The image will surely be embraced by the Bronco's devoted following, who remember the aircraft's notably effective service in the Vietnam War.

The OV-10 could face competition from other Vietnam-era light attack aircraft, such as the Piper Aircraft PA-48 Enforcer. A new class of turboprop fighter-trainers, such as the AT-6 and the Embraer Super Tucano are also vying for the contract. Alenia, meanwhile, plans to offer the jet-powered M346 trainer.

Boeing inherits the OV-10 Bronco's design rights from its purchase in the 1980s of North American Rockwell, the aircraft's original manufacturer.

Question: Does Boeing think Airbus should be excluded from the KC-X competition on the basis of the World Trade Organization's interim finding that the A380 received illegal subsidies?

As the headline above suggests, Boeing's answer to that question is, well, complicated.

In late July, I interviewed a panel of Boeing experts on the WTO case: Ted Austell, VP and counsel; Tim Deaton Keating, communicator and Robert Novick, a private attorney working on Boeing's team. Click on the link below to read the transcript of my question -- and their long and complex reply.

Six years after a scandal erupted over leasing terms for 100 Boeing KC-767s, the US Air Force continues to fly two Boeing-owned 737 business jets on a leased basis.

But not for long.

The USAF's leased C-40B and C40C that have transported so many congressional delegations (CODELs), high-ranking dignitaries, and even a few troops to bases all over the world are nearing the end of their lease terms. One aircraft's lease expires in December and the other expires next August.

So it's time to acquire a couple of new VIP business jets, but this time the USAF is taking a very different approach. The USAF is now soliciting to buy two used commercial jets rather than lease new aircraft. The USAF doesn't specifically ask for 737s, but the range and payload requirements dictate a next-generation 737 or Airbus A320.

And the USAF wants the aircraft, pronto. If you want this deal, you must deliver the first aircraft by 1 December, or in 81 days!

I wonder if the quick turn-around means the USAF simply wants to buy the leased C-40B and C-40C off Boeing?

Photo: US Air Force

LiveLeak has posted a video appearing to show rare footage of an operational UAV recovery in Afghanistan. My best guess for the UAV's type is the Meggitt Banshee, but it could also be the closely-related Sagem Crecerelle (Kestrel). I assume the troops are moving so fast because they want to beat any scrap-hunting locals to the landing site.

The big shocker today in the Senate defense appropriations subcommittee mark-up hasn't yet been widely reported.

The Senate panel voted to lift the ban on retiring the US Air Force's Lockheed Martin C-5As, which are described in the press release as "aging, hard to maintain and often broken". For five years, the late-Sen. Ted Kennedy and now-Vice President Joe Biden blocked the US Air Force's attempts to retire C-5As and buy new C-17s. If the retirement ban is lifted in the final version of the bill, USAF will be allowed to retire as many as 59 C-5As currently in the fleet. Those C-5As could be replaced by an equal number of C-17s. 

Winners:
+ 10 C-17s
+ 2 HH-60 helicopters
+ $522 million for F-22 modernization initiatives
+ 79.3 million for Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) for RQ-4 Global Hawk
+ $50 million to continue developing Radar Technology Insertion Program for "large aircraft"

Losers:
- F-35 alternate engine (General Electric/Rolls-Royce F136)
- C-5A retirement ban lifted
- CSAR-X terminated, funding transferred to "HH-60 replacement helicopters"
- F-22 terminated
- Presidential helicopter terminated
- 6 deferred UH-1Y/AH-1Z helicopters
- funding deferred for C-130 Avionics Modernization Program

Unknown:

• Status of F/A-18E/F purchase
  

Brazil has backtracked on an apparent announcement on 7 September that it would enter final negotiations with the French government and Dassault to buy at least 36 Rafale F3 fighters.

Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and French President Nicolas Sarkozy jointly announced the Rafale's selection during ceremonies marking Brazil's Independence Day. The agreement included a commitment by France to buy "a dozen" Embraer KC-390J tanker-transports, although Brazilian officials later put the number at 10.

But the announcement seemed to catch the competitors for the FX-2 contract off-guard. Even Embraer, Brazil's largest aersospace company, was unable to publish a statement reacting to the news even two days after the announcement was made public.

Meanwhile, Brazilian Defence Minister Nelson Jobim has issued a statement that appears to contradict Rafale's status as the only fighter selected to enter final negotiations on price. In fact, Brazil's air force will continue negotiating terms for the FX-2 contract with all three competitors in the final round, including Rafale, Saab JAS-39 Gripen and the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.

Before the presidential announcement on Monday, the air force was scheduled to forward their recommendation for the FX-2 winner to Jobim's office later this week.

Jobim's statement affirms Sarkozy's pledge to commit French industry to help Embraer develop the KC-390J, conceived as a jet-powered rival to the Lockheed Martin C-130J.

I have confirmed with Dassault that France and Brazil have signed a joint communique agreeing to negotiate terms to export 36 Dassault Rafale F3s to Brasilia and 12 Embraer KC-390 tanker-transports to Paris. A direct link to the joint communique appears to be on the web site for Brazil's Ministry of Defense, but for the moment I can't seem to gain access to it. In the meantime, here are my top questions about this profound new strategic partnership between two governments and two very skilled aerospace companies:

1. Will Dassault agree to open a final assembly line for the Rafale F3 in Brazil?
2. Will Embraer invite Dassault to join the supply chain for the KC-390?
3. Does this potential deal pave the way for Embraer and Dassault to collaborate on next-generation projects, such as a fifth-generation fighter and a 737/A320 replacement?
4. How will Brazil's decision to select the Rafale play in India, which is considering all of the same bidders for the far more lucrative MMRCA project?
5. Is Switzerland now Saab's best (only?) chance to win an export contract for the JAS 39 Gripen?
   

Lockheed Martin told me they received special dispensations from the Pentagon to allow Bloomberg to report live from the F-35's factory floor. I posted Bloomberg's interview with CEO Bob Stevens yesterday, but here are the full reports.

The US Army's frustrated, decade-long ambition to buy a guided rocket for its scout helicopters has taken another twist.

Five years ago, the army started developing the advanced precision kill weapon system (APKWS), adapting the standard -- and wildly inaccurate -- 2.75-in Hydra rocket with a semi-active laser. After the General Dynamics/BAE Systems team scored two test failures in early 2005, the army terminated the contract. The program was re-opened to competitive bids, allowing Lockheed and Raytheon to submit proposals against a reorganized BAE/General Dynamics team. But the army stuck with its original contractor, awarding the APKWS II contract to BAE.

But that wasn't nearly the end of the story. A year later, Congress took the money for APKWS II away from the army and gave it to the US Marine Corps, which is integrating the weapon the Bell UH-1Y and AH-1Z. The army seemed to lose interest. Meanwhile, Lockheed continued developing their version of the guided rocket, calling its version the direct attack guided rocket (DAGR). Raytheon also stayed in the mix, receiving funding from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). And foreign companies, such as Thales, have also developed their own version of a lightweight guided munition.

Now, after all this time, the US army is again soliciting options for a "lightweight precision guided munition", which could be capable of targeting lightly armored vehicles and people by a OH-58D Kiowa Warrior. The army will no doubt invite the same bidders who competed for APKWS II, and Lockheed has already confirmed plans to respond to the army's solicitation.