I have confirmed with Dassault that France and Brazil have signed a joint communique agreeing to negotiate terms to export 36 Dassault Rafale F3s to Brasilia and 12 Embraer KC-390 tanker-transports to Paris. A direct link to the joint communique appears to be on the web site for Brazil's
Ministry of Defense, but for the moment I can't seem to gain access to it. In the meantime, here are my top questions about this profound new strategic partnership between two governments and two very skilled aerospace companies:
- Will Dassault agree to open a final assembly line for the Rafale F3 in Brazil?
- Will Embraer invite Dassault to join the supply chain for the KC-390?
- Does this potential deal pave the way for Embraer and Dassault to collaborate on next-generation projects, such as a fifth-generation fighter and a 737/A320 replacement?
- How will Brazil's decision to select the Rafale play in India, which is considering all of the same bidders for the far more lucrative MMRCA project?
- Is Switzerland now Saab's best (only?) chance to win an export contract for the JAS 39 Gripen?
I have confirmed with Dassault that France and Brazil have signed a joint communique agreeing to negotiate terms to export 36 Dassault Rafale F3s to Brasilia and 12 Embraer KC-390 tanker-transports to Paris. A direct link to the joint communique appears to be on the web site for Brazil's Ministry of Defense, but for the moment I can't seem to gain access to it. In the meantime, here are my top questions about this profound new strategic partnership between two governments and two very skilled aerospace companies: 
on September 8, 2009 3:42 PM | Reply
Reuters reported over the weekend that a deal would involve assembly in Brazil of all but six of the Rafales.
on September 8, 2009 5:03 PM | Reply
Question 6: Will Brazil's Rafales be solely land based or will they be carrier capable as well?
on September 8, 2009 8:10 PM | Reply
I just returned from a business trip in Brasil and a news report there had the acquisition decision pinned to vendors who collaborated the much on the sharing of current and FUTURE technology endevors.
I would expect to see Dassault/Embraer working closer on defense as well as civilian programs in the future.
on September 8, 2009 8:42 PM | Reply
According to Les Echos (french business dauly) :
The first 6 rafale will be fully assembled in France with th esame part suppliers than french airfirce rafakes.
The following 30 will be assembled with some parts coming from Brazil, the overall level of offset being 170% of the contract.
If Brazil need more rafale they wiil be assembled in Brazil.
To complement Super Sean expectations, China has also presented today the its C919 project, which will enter the B737/AB20 market in 2014.
On of Airbus or Boeing won't be able to compete with the newcomers for its single ailse replacement, and will disappear from the market.
My personal opinion : Boeing civilian aviation business is toasted. Reason : French and German government will never let Aibrus go out of the market, whatever the price, where in the US, only the Washington state governor care.
on September 8, 2009 10:08 PM | Reply
This deal poses all sorts of very interesting questions. It may, for example, be added to the marketing mix in India: so that, if India were to join Brazil and France in developing the KC-390, this might derail the proposed Russo-Indian MTA, which is of similar capacity and performance.
There's a long article analyzing this and other points at:
Long URL: http://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2009/09/very-interesting-aerospace-development.html
Short URL: http://tinyurl.com/lgr5ke
on September 8, 2009 11:03 PM | Reply
mia92
boeing and airbus both have proven supply lines and quality, which is really important for airlines, so it should be pretty hard to enter the market. Neither Boeing nor Airbus are quietly letting competitors enter the market and their current developements are both multi-billion projects. OAK also wants to enter the market, but both the russian and the chinese will need massive investments. I think only the chinese effort has a chance of success, as the inland market is big enough and government backing is strong.
Overall the civilian flight market will probably shrink with growing fuel prices, add the current economy, the airlines won'T take risks, another problem for the new competitors.
on September 10, 2009 4:45 PM | Reply
To question no 5:
Maybe the Swiss one is currently the most promising tender for the Gripen. But in the next five to ten years there will be quite a lot of opportunities to export Gripens to countries in Eastern Europe. At the latest in 2020 Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Croatia and Serbia will have to replace their current fleets of MIG-21 and MIG-29. In a realistic view of their budgets they have the choice between new F-16 (like Poland), used MLU F-16 (like Chile) and Gripen (like the Czech Republic and Hungary). As the Swedish airforce is going to reduce its fleet there will be some reasonably priced second-hand Gripen on the market.