As you may recall, I asked O'Bryan how Lockheed could continue to say that the US Air Force will order 1,763 jets after the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) slashed the number of theater strike wings to 10 or 11. Assuming a standard 72-aircraft wing, that adds up to only 720 to 792 combat-coded jets, far below Lockheed's official number for the F-35.
I've received an email from Lockheed's analysts this morning, which I excerpt below.
I assume all the strike wings are F-35. This would mean replacement of all F-16s, A-10s and F-15Es with F-35. As of now, it is reasonable to assume all the A-10s and F-15Es would reach their life during the USAF buy of F-35s (~ 2035) with no other tactical strike platform to replace their full capability other than F-35.
For air superiority, I'm assuming 2 wings of F-22s and the remaining 4 are F-35s. (In reality, there are only 1 2/3 wing equivalents F-22s.)
This leads to 14-15 wings of F-35s. The table below uses historic USAF bottoms-up approach for force structure requirements. As you can see, with 15 wings, the requirement is over 1,700 F-35s. This is certainly in the noise of 1,763 when we are talking about aircraft procured 25 years from now.