Johan Boeder, a Dutch defense analyst and editor of jsfnieuws.nl, has compiled a chart showing how the Department of Defense's planned F-35 orders have declined since contract award in October 2001.
The numbers illuminate one of the central challenges faced by Lockheed Martin and the F-35 industry team: preventing unit costs from skyrocketing as volumes plummet.
Learning curve theory posits that manufacturing costs decline by 12% each time output doubles. With each new delay that results in a further production cutback, the F-35's affordability challenge becomes more difficult. If unit costs increase each time orders decrease, budget cuts become a self-perpetuating cycle -- aka: the acquisition death spiral. How does the F-35 escape?
The numbers illuminate one of the central challenges faced by Lockheed Martin and the F-35 industry team: preventing unit costs from skyrocketing as volumes plummet.
Learning curve theory posits that manufacturing costs decline by 12% each time output doubles. With each new delay that results in a further production cutback, the F-35's affordability challenge becomes more difficult. If unit costs increase each time orders decrease, budget cuts become a self-perpetuating cycle -- aka: the acquisition death spiral. How does the F-35 escape?
| 2001 | Sep-06 | Nov-06 | Apr-07 | Nov-08 | Aug-09 | Jan-11 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY05 | 10 | ||||||
| FY06 | 22 | ||||||
| FY07 | 49 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| FY08 | 82 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| FY09 | 108 | 52 | 47 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| FY10 | 156 | 70 | 56 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 28 |
| FY11 | 170 | 98 | 64 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 32 |
| FY12 | 170 | 133 | 103 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 32 |
| FY13 | 170 | 143 | 135 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 42 |
| FY14 | 170 | 157 | 157 | 116 | 110 | 110 | 62 |
| FY15 | 170 | 160 | 160 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 81 |
| FY16 | 170 | 160 | 160 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 108 |
| Totals | 1447 | 996 | 903 | 651 | 643 | 643 | 413 |
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