The DEW Line

My nomination for best swag at Farnborough

2008-07-17T15:41:12Z

The C-17 "moose" joined us in Flight's editorial offices for just a quick drink and a smoke ...

Sadly, things went downhill pretty fast ...

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Farnborough news updates

2008-07-17T07:56:17Z

There's been a dearth of actual news by US military contractors at the Farnborough, but I'll post here a couple of the few new announcements for you today. Both articles will be appearing in next week's Flight International magazine. Also, if you haven't seen it yet, check the "Why I love Farnborough" blog I posted earlier this week.

Three US primes team up to challenge Boeing, Raytheon in missile market
Stephen Trimble
Three US defence contractors are teaming up to beat Boeing and Raytheon to design the next premier air-launched missile.
Alliant Techsystems (ATK), Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman will jointly pursue development of a dual-role weapon that can replace both the Raytheon AIM-120 advanced medium range air to air missile (AMRAAM), and the AGM-88 high-speed anti-radiation missile (HARM).
The precise role of the new team members is currently undecided. But ATK's background is propulsion and integration, while Lockheed and Northrop bring sensor, airframe and integration skills to the team.
"The formal structure isn't so formal right now," said R.D. (Ron) Abbott, executive vice president for Lockheed's Missiles and Fire Control division.
The new team will likely eventually compete for an emerging USAF acquisition programme called the dual-role air dominance missile (DRADM).
Last year, both Lockheed and Raytheon lost an early technology development contract preceding the DRADM competition. Instead, the USAF awarded the contract to Boeing, which has leveraged its background in missile defense weapons and air-to-ground weapons.
Although the ATK/Lockheed/Northrop team has no formal leader, the announcement was staged at the Lockheed chalet at the Farnborough Air Show. Abbott was joined on the stage by Jack Cronin, president of ATK Mssion Systems and Jim Pitts, president of Northrop's Eectronic Systems division.
Asked directly about the team's intentions about DRADM, however, all three executives declined to name the programme specifically as a potential target.
Raytheon, meanwhile, declined to comment directly, but gave no hint that it will simply cede its monopoly on the AMRAAM and HARM market to the new competitors.
"Raytheon has been an innovator in this space for decades and will continue to do so for decades to come," the company says.

USN approves $150 million upgrade package for future P-8A fleet
Stephen Trimble

Five years before the US Navy P-8A enters service, the US Navy already has approved a roughly $150 million package of upgrades for the anti-submarine patrol fleet.
Boeing received a contract earlier this month to launch studies supporting the P-8A's spiral 1 upgrade that should enter service in 2015, or two years after the first squadron becomes operational.
Ironically, the spiral 1 upgrade is intended to bring the P-8A mission system up to the same standard of the aging Lockheed P-3C Orion that it will be replacing.
The P-8A needs to "catch up" to the P-3C by 2013 because its systems were frozen in 2004, while the P-3C fleet is continuing to be upgraded, said Neal Rothback, the USN P-8A programme's deputy integrated product team leader. The P-8A and the P-3C share a common maritime surveillance radar.
More upgrades to add capability are also still being considered, but are not yet part of the approved spiral 1 package.
For example, the USN is provisioning the P-8A to carry the Raytheon littoral surveillance radar system (LSRS), Rothback said, although funding to integrate the underbelly-mounted sensor has not been approved.
The LSRS has recently been fielded with a small group of P-3Cs. It allows the Orions to perform a function comparable to the Northrop Grumman E-8C Joint-STARS, adding a weapons-targeting function and a maritime search mode.
In addition, the USN also is considering adding funds to develop a high-altitude operating capability, which would include a new air-launched torpedo, data links and high-altitude dropsondes, Rothback said.
Last week, Lockheed Martin officials said that the USN planned to launch the high-altitude weapons concept within a month.
Rothback confirmed that the USN has started to develop the required technologies, but has not yet approved adding funds to integrate the high-altitude capability for the P-8A.
The Spiral 1 package would be followed by a second batch of upgrades in 2017, or two years later.
"We're looking for every two to three years to add new capability," he said.

Russia's views about the new F-22 flying display

2008-07-16T08:38:28Z

Vladimir Karnozov, Flight's Moscow-based correspondent, got the Russian perspective on the F-22 flying display on Monday. Excerpted below are quotes from the article appearing in next week's magazine.

Going back to the Raptor, [Su-30MKi/MKA/MKM project manager Aleksandr] Barkovsky said that generally speaking the Su-30MKI performance is largely similar, "but we did it ten years ago".
The Su-35 with 16% more power and a bit less structural weight will perform somewhat better than the Raptor and the Su-30MKI. Touching on the Raptor's flat spin recovery maneuver, Barkovsky said the F-22A made only three-third of the 360-degree arc before attempting recovery with vectored thrust. "We demonstrated flat spin recovery after 2 - 3 circles. Besides, we used thrust vectoring to change direction of the spin rotation and then recovered. They are still to demonstrate that".
Barkovsky also said that from his viewpoint the potential of the F-22A platform is not fully exploited yet, so that Lokcheed Martin has something to work on. Ultimately, the US maker shall be able to offer air show visitors a more spectacular demonstration when the Raptor potential is fully exploited by its flight control system".
The Russian fighters use round-shaped nozzles that are part of their engines, while on the Raptor's flat nozzles are a part of the airframe. "Their design solution give them more ability to fool infrared missiles", the Su-30MKI chief designer said.
...

The Su-35 is classified as "transitional type" from fourth to fifth generation fighters, a bridge-gapping measure before Russia's PAK FA fifth generation fighter becomes available. Russian air force commander Gen. Aleksandr Zelin expects its prototype to fly in 2009 and pass trials in 2013. Zelin came to Farnborough to watch performance of the Raptor in the company of Sukhoi general director Mikhail Pogosyan. Zelin told the media on the eve of the show that "from what we have seen", the F-22A does not exceed the Su-35 in maneuverable fight performance.

In his turn Mikhail Pogosyan said the Su-35 is not a match for the F-22A, but the PAK FA shall match it. He added that the cycle of the fifth generation fighter development takes 7-10 years. "Not all of our customers will go for the fifth generation fighter due to its high complexity and costs. They may find the Su-35 meeting their needs". He predicts the market for more than 200 Su-35s in 2011-2020 time frame. He further said that production of the Su-35 can run in parallel with that of the PAK FA "for several years".

Farnborough log: Day 2

2008-07-15T11:30:59Z

1444: Bowman makes interesting -- and potentially significant -- point: former C-17 pilot is now a chief of staff of the USAF.

1437: Bowman: still several countries interested in buying 2 to 4 C-17s. Qatar is mentioned for first time.

1417: Now at Boeing briefing. Subject is C-17 humanitarian role. Speaker is Dave Bowman, who also happens to be Boeing's new tanker mgr.

1359: No news on F-16. I pressed Larson on Israeli toxic cockpit issue, but he didn't bite. Some talk about AESA upgrades, but nothing firm.

1316: Now attending LockMart F-16 briefing. John Larson, VP, is speaking.

1214: Just interviewed Paul Meyer, Northrop Grumman's tanker VP. Asked about split-buy solution, but received non-answer.

1117: Nothing at Russian exhibit about T-50 or PAK-FA. Rats!

1104: Just picked up a brochure for the Mil Mi-34 UAV, which vaguely resembles Fire Scout ... Er, but Russian.

1050: All of the trash cans at the show carry ads for the Bombardier CSeries. Hmmm ...

1014: Due to unfortunate schedule mix-up, I have a free hour to roam the exhibit floor.

1020: New insight: Sikorsky sees X-2 high-speed helo as possible SpecOps Little Bird replacement in 5 years.

0944: Just talked corporate strategy w/Chris Chadwick, president of Boeing military aircraft. My takeaway: tough times ahead for Boeing!

Farborough log: Day 1

2008-07-15T07:24:08Z

1915: After the first day, 2 major themes to the show are JSF and KC-X. The surprise: both stories are shaped by public feuding between DOD and Boeing.

1908: Only at Farnborough can a reporter get a ride back from the show with the head

of aviation for the USMC, LTG Troutman. Nice guy.

1527: F-22 display was dazzling. Most thrilling aerial display I've ever seen. Nice to see a new fighter at Farnbro anyway. Show over. Back to work!

1525: I talked to my Russian friend Vlad. He has talked to Su-35 pilots. They think F-22 strengths can be limited, but not overcome, Vlad said.

1518: ironically, I am watching F-22 display standing next to Sukhoi chalet. Like everyone else they are transfixed!

1515: F-22 is up!

1503: Eurofighter just took off!

1440: Thank goodness for free snacks at Boeing media center. No time for breakfast or lunch!

1352: Fraser adds: "We're told we enjoy great support from Navy."

1351: Waiting over! Fraser admits "affordability issue", but he expects program to be funded in 2010 budget.

1348: Fraser is giving a program brief. I want to know if USN is going to kill UCAS-D, but must wait for Q&A.

1346: NG's Fraser: hardest objective for UCAS-D is catapult launch, not arrested landing.

1339: Just over 1 more hour to F-22 flying display!!!

1338: Now at Northrop Grumman pavilion for UAS brief. Gene Fraser, VP, is speaking. Want UCAS-D update.

1229: Lawson: F-22 yesterdar completed 1st supersonic release of 250lb small diameter bomb.

1221: Lawson says USAF plans 22K flt hrs for F-22 in 08. Seems low. If roughly 100 a/c delivered, then fewer than 210 hrs per.

1206: At Lockheed brief on F-22 now. Larry Lawson, program manager, is speaking.

1144: Albaugh replies: won't speculate on new req's until he sees the RFP.

1142: I asked Albaugh: if extra credit is awarded for exceeding fuel threshold, can Boeing compete?

1133: Albaugh: On 777 tanker possibility, won't rule out but "we'd be challenged on time".

1128: Lockhart: past performance has likely improved since USAF last checked.

1125: Lockhart: "We don't see a need for a bigger aircraft."

1123: John Lockhard, Boeing exec, is speaking about tanker: "Do not expect requirement to change." USAF schedule is "sporty".

1118: Albaugh: Dave Bowman has replaced Mark McGraw as tanker program manager. Bowman comes from C-17.

1115: Listening now to Jim Albaugh, president of Boeing IDS. Waiting for him to day the T-word.

1114: Bell says ARH-70 price tag hasn't changed since 2007, despite Army claim of new 40% cost jump.

1112: Monday morning at Farnborough. Coming up, briefings by Bell, Boeing, LM and NG. F-22 flies at 3:08.

Why I love Farnborough

2008-07-13T22:00:53Z

The Farnborough Air Show doesn't officially start until tomorrow, and I've only been in London for less than 24 hours, but I already have my favorite story of the year.

The article below will be printed in tomorrow's Flight Daily News. Here's your sneak-peek.

Top JSF official blasts Boeing for barbs
Stephen Trimble / London
Boeing is "spreading lies and half-truths" about the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) programme in a "desperate" effort to bolster domestic and foreign sales of its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, JSF programme executive Lt Gen Charles "CR" Davis tells Flight Daily News.
In an unusually candid, exclusive interview on the eve of the Farnborough Air Show, Davis blasted Boeing executives for making what he thinks are grossly inappropriate statements about the health of his acquisition programme.
"If Boeing has to say something negative about JSF to sell their aircraft, that tells me there is something wrong with their aircraft," Davis said.
Contacted for a response, Tom Bell, a Boeing business development official, said he was unaware of the specific comments that triggered Davis' outburst, and so he could not give a direct response.
More generally, however, Bell pointed out that two JSF development partners - Australia and Denmark - have already acquired or are considering acquiring F/A-18E/F's instead.
"People with greater insight than I are looking at the offerings available," Bell said. "Let people draw their own conclusions about why."
Davis said he has neither contacted Boeing executives about his accusations, nor does he intend to. Asked if he was waiting for Boeing to initiate contact, he quickly repied: "Yes, I am."
Davis said he has read two recent articles - one in the US press and one in the foreign press - quoting Boeing executives saying the JSF programme would likely be delayed again and further exceed development costs by more than $10 billion.
It was pointed out to Davis that Boeing had delivered hundreds of Super Hornets ontime and on-budget, while the F-35's programme costs have increased by about 50% and the development phase has been delayed more than 18 months since contract award in 2001.
Davis responded that the F-35's record can not be compared to the F/A-18E/F. The F/A-18E/F is based on an existing airframe and re-used the avionics of the original aircraft.
"That's the baseline they're measured against. How hard is that?" Davis asked.
In reply, Bell said: "I think characterizing the F/A-18E/F as a just a simple programme is maybe a little simplistic in and of itself. Boeing is very proud of delivering increased capability at decreased costs and delivering real capability to the warfighter now."

Watch Rep Norm Dicks call the A330 a "big, monstrous aircraft"

2008-07-12T01:43:07Z

Farnborough preview podcast on DoDBuzz.com

2008-07-11T18:57:13Z

I'm a big fan of DoDBuzz.com and not least because it's part of Military.com, a site I played a (very small) part in creating about eight years ago.

I joined a panel of defense trade reporters this morning for a podcast hosted by DoDBuzz.com. Moderated by Military.com managing editor Christian Lowe, we previewed the stories and issues we'll be writing about next week at the Farnborough Air Show.

I was joined by DoDBuzz.com editor Colin Clark and Bob Cox, senior business writer for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and contributor to the SkyTalk aviation blog.

Click here to hear the podcast.

Random notes on yesterday's tanker hearing, next week's Farnborough air show

2008-07-11T13:00:50Z

Extraordinary hearing yesterday ... a lot of heat ... but also a lot of light ... if you had any doubts that DOD could re-compete the contract without political interference, the hearing offered ample proof that the next round of bidding will be all about politics ... DOD faces a really tough situation ... they want to conduct a fair and open competition in the next round and kind of pretend that politics won't be interjected into the mix ... but that appears to be impossible ... the bottom line is that there is now an empowered and politically desperate faction in Congress, which is a potent combination, that will do anything to stop a contract award to Northrop Grumman ... and if DOD follows the ground rules laid out during the past week, it is hard to see how Boeing wins without substantially changing its bid ... and even then it's still hard to see how they can stay competitive based on the ground rules ... and I say this for 2 reasons ... DOD intends to give official credit for offering more fuel offload capacity ... that certainly doesn't hurt the chances for Northrop's larger aircraft ... DOD also wants to give less weight in the evaluation to lifecycle costs, which include long range fuel estimates ... since the 767 is the smaller aircraft, and therefore consumes less fuel, this also does nothing to help Boeing's chances in the second round ... so that's where we are ...

Farnborough Air Show is my favorite week of the year ... just the chance to see all of those aircraft in the same place ... and the industry and military delegations from so many different countries ... it's like a big playground for an aerospace reporter ...

Every one of these big shows always has political drama ... back in the 2003 Paris Air Show, I remember it was all about Rumsfeld's decision to punish the French for their objections to the Iraq war by essentially boycotting the show ...

This year the political drama is very likely to be about this tanker debacle ... It's difficult to overstate the disappointment - and to some extent even disillusionment - with the US acquisition process that I hear when I talked to my European friends and co-workers at Flight about this whole process ... European industry, quite naturally, believes the best tanker won ... and they don't see the bureaucratic failures identified in the GAO report for overturning the contract ... they see political interference ... to some extent, that may reflect their experience with the somewhat more politicized nature of their military acquisitions compared to ours ... but sometimes perception more important than reality and that really applies in this case ...

Besides the political posturing, I will be looking at a few other major themes of the show ... it will be interesting to see how journalists from around the world react to Lockheed Martin's update on the F-35 program, which is scheduled for Tuesday ... I think it's fair to say there is a lot of skepticism about Lockheed's ability to pull of, in succession, an extremely complicated and aggressive flight test schedule, a rapid production rate increase that starts this month, while managing to keep the price tag truly affordable for the international customers ... I've found the international press corps to be quite perceptive about these issues, and I expect them to be especially forceful in their questioning this year ...

For me, the Farnborough event will be a familiar blur of press conferences, interviews, meetings, cocktail receptions, working dinners and late-night writing sessions ... Sleep deprivation and commuting hassles are only partly offset by all of the really good food and, of course, the open bar at the various receptions, parties and dinners ...

There will be a lot of "news conferences" offering precious little "news" for a reporter like me with a weekly deadline ...

In the midst of all the commotion and noise, there are always a few moments of inspiration ... when the routine of reporting mere data points snowballs into something much more ... with so many official - and unofficial - sources all gathered in one place, these kinds of shows allow you to get to the bottom of things within just a few days in a way you never could otherwise ... and that's probably why I never get tired of it, despite all of the exhaustion and frustration.

Twittering Tanker -- Again

2008-07-10T21:36:37Z

John Young, undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics, is about to explain to the House Armed Services Committee how he will stage the recompetition of the poor old KC-X contract.

Watch my Twitter updates -- or, um, "tweets" -- in the space on the right, or check out my twitter page here: http://twitter.com/TheDEWLine

Here's my Twitter transcript from the first half of today's hearing, which featured testimony and a lively Q&A with GAO deputy general counsel Daniel Gordon.

TheDEWLine Young answers: "We will not give extra credit for additional fuel." Credit will be given for threshold. More credit given for more fuel.

6 minutes ago from web

TheDEWLine More from Rep Dicks: "You know what's going to happen. There's going to be another protest. And we won't get anything done." 9 minutes ago from web
TheDEWLine Rep Dicks, quoted below, is from the Seattle area. The "big, monstrous airplane" he referred to is the KC-30. 10 minutes ago from web
TheDEWLine Rep Dicks:You're going to say that the bigger tanker gets more credit.This is the wrong decision.You don't want this big monstrous airplane. ... 12 minutes ago from web
TheDEWLine Young says there will be 2 RFP changes. 1) Weighting the relative value of 808 requirements. 2) Clarifying desire for more fuel offload. 33 minutes ago from web
TheDEWLine Rep Miller, of Florida, asks: If Boeing switches to the 777, how will that affect the evaluation? Young answers there would be a delay. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Young also says that near-term hardware and production costs will be measured with "higher-confidence" than lifecycle costs in re-bid. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Young says he doesn't expect new tanker to survive 40 years. But requirements call for a 40-year lifecyle, so that will guide estimates. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Young replies: "I may not make the end of the year but I will make every effort to do that." about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Rep Abercrombie, subcommittee chairman, says: "If don't finish by the end of the year, then you have to start this thing all over again." about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Young just extended his self-imposed deadline for contract award. It's now "late 2008 or early 2009". about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine John Young, undersecretary of acquisition, technology and logistics, for DOD is now testifying. We're about to enter fourth hour of hearing. about 2 hours ago from web

*************************************************************************************************************
First panel

In the end, three Northrop supporters in Congress spoke out at the hearing, but they were heavily outnumbered by Boeing's allies. Maybe 3:1.

7 minutes ago from web

TheDEWLine Miller did not accept Gordon's assertion that the consulting auditor was not involved in the final report, but offered no evidence. 33 minutes ago from web
TheDEWLine Gordon did acknowledge that 1 member on auditing staff consulted the lawyers working on the tanker protest, but had no role in the report. 33 minutes ago from web
TheDEWLine Gordon said the GAO union recruited only members of the auditors division. Lawyers working on the bid protest docket were not involved. 34 minutes ago from web
TheDEWLine GAO's Gordon defended the GAO's impartiality to Miller's charges. 35 minutes ago from web
TheDEWLine The GAO union's home page says: IFPTE recognizes GAO employees are bound by ... impartiality and non-partisanship in their official work. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine This is the GAO analysts union that is part of the IFPTE: http://tinyurl.com/5fh3wa about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Miller represents 1st district of Florida. Panhandle area. Northrop's tanker team is based in Melbourne, Florida. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Miller's remarks are the first from Congress to challenge GAO's fairness and impartiality in this case, to my knowledge. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Miller says GAO analysts started a join that's part of IFPTE. IFPTE came out against Northrop contract and lobbied for Boeing. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Jeff Miller, Congressman from Florida, raises intriguing new question in tanker hearing. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine Mark Lindsley, Northrop's top BD exec for tanker, is in the hearing room, according to InsideDefense'com's tanker blog. Boeing reps unseen. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine If Northrop Grumman's tanker team has allies in Congress, they haven't spoken up yet in the today's hearing. about 1 hour ago from web
TheDEWLine From InsideDefense.com's tanker blog: Rep Jim Saxton, D-New Jersey, claims neutral position, but district adjoins Boeing site in Philly. about 2 hours ago from web

Is Oz back on JSF bandwagon?

2008-07-10T15:42:31Z

Jason Simonds, TDL reader from down-under, sent this comment to the blog today:

"Stephen Gumley, the chief executive officer of Australia's Defence Materiel Organisation (agency responsible for buying military capability in Australia) let slip on 10 July 2008, in front of a Senate enquiry, that Australia WILL be buying the F-35A, barring some unlikely calamity in the project causing it's entire cancellation."

I cross-checked Simonds' keen observation with the Sydney Morning Herald, which this morning reports:

Opposition defence spokesman Nick Minchin said the DMO had confirmed what Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon would not - that the JSF would be part of Australia's future air combat capability.
"It is clear that Labor will support the coalition's decision to acquire the JSF and this confirmation from the DMO makes a mockery of Mr Fitzgibbon's junket to the US to talk tough with the JSF's prime contractor, Lockheed Martin," Senator Minchin said.

I'm sure more of this story will become clear at the Farnborough air show next week, where I'll be speaking with the F-35's US government and Lockheed Martin representatives.

But these are clear indications that Australia's new government is likely to stick with the F-35 for the forseeable future. That's bad news for the already tenuous export future for the Lockheed F-22 and also the Boeing F/A-18E/F program, which might have hoped to compete for a follow-on order by the Royal Australian Air Force.