The DEW Line

Today, it's official: the Lockheed Martin F-22 production line will finally expire in June 2012, which, of course, means the company and its congressional allies have exactly four years and 11 months to contrive a reason to keep the program alive.

Anyone familiar with the ongoing saga of the Boeing C-17 production line knows that a major weapon system in hot production is like a cockroach in a mushroom cloud. It survives.

Time will only tell when the F-22 finally meets its fifth-generation fate. With the US Air Force still hoping to essentially double the orderbook to at least 380 and certain key allies asking for the Raptor's keys, there's still plenty of reason to believe that where there's a will, there's a ... well, you know. But with budget pressures and the small matter of the need to reconstruct the army and the marine corps in this pre-post-Iraq period, finding extra cash will be tricky.

"Er, remember Tiananmen?" Source: USAF

My vote for best professional organization in the defense/aerospace industry: the Society of Experimental Test Pilots.

And it's not just because they can get Neil Armstrong (Neil Armstrong!!!) to come to their annual symposium in Disneyland next month and brief attendees like me on the lunar vehicle test program (although, honestly, how do you top THAT?).

It's also because it's the only event on the aerospace convention calendar where virtually all the briefers make news, at least for a rumpled, ink-stained, trade wag like me.

Consider this abstract on a panel of speakers talking about the Small Diameter Bomb program:

"Unfortunately, the transition to the F-22 from F-15E is not as straightforward as it may appear. Many testing challenges, some of which have yet to be overcome, have arisen in the physical integration, instrumentation (specifically in loads measurements), range availability/clearance, and limited lifetimes of both the flight termination system (FTS) battery and weapon battery"

Remember, Small Diameter Bomb is the weapon that justifies the F-22 as a multi-role fighter.

What gives you better bang for the buck: the F-22 or the F-35?

The answer will of course depend on the evolution of the F-35's price tag, so is probably unknowable for several more years.

But I'm glad that didn't stop Captain J. Michael Stelly, who has recently published his master's thesis for the Air Force Institute of Technology. The thesis is entitled "Price versus Performance: The Value of Next Generation Fighter Aircraft".

Assuming the F-35's price tag remains constant, he concludes the JSF is by far the more cost-effective purchase.

He claims that the F-35 shares every major weapons capability with the F-22 with one exception -- super-cruise, which is usually defined as the ability to fly faster than Mach 1 without afterburners. According to Stelly's models, this feature carries a relative value of $68 million per each F-22, making its somewhat slower rival a better overall affordable solution.

I'm not sure I completely follow this line of reasoning, but I think it's a worthy debate to have, and I'm glad Stelly has filled the factual vaccum with some empirical data to work with.

You knew this would happen eventually: The F-22's program acquisition cost and its numerical designation are roughly in synch.

The US Air Force wants to extend the F-22 production line one year past its scheduled closure date at the end of fiscal year 2010.

I asked the USAF to tell me how much it would cost. One week later, the response is: $526 million in fiscal year 2009 and $3.892 billion in fiscal year 2010.

That adds up to $4.418 billion for 20 aircraft, or exactly $220.9 million per copy, including spares, overhead, etc.

I also think it's interesting that the F-22 and the C-17 each cost about $220 million.

Air Force suspends some F-15 operations

11/4/2007 - WASHINGTON (AFPN) -- The Air Force suspended non-mission critical F-15 flight operations on Nov. 3 following the crash of a Missouri Air National Guard F-15C aircraft Nov. 2.

The cause of that accident is still under investigation, however, preliminary findings indicate that a possible structural failure of the aircraft may have occurred. The suspension of flight operations is a precautionary measure.

The Air Force will ensure mission requirements are met for worldwide operations normally accomplished by the F-15. Current F-15 flying locations include bases in the continental United States, Alaska, England, Hawaii, Japan and the Middle East.

There are more than 700 F-15s in the Air Force inventory. The F-15 reached initial operational capability for the Air Force in September 1975.

While the F-15 continues to serve its country well, the Air Force is replacing its aging F-15 fighters with its fifth generation of air superiority, the F-22 Raptor. The F-22 is the world's most advanced fighter aircraft combining stealth, supercruise, maneverability and integrated avionics to provide unmatched warfighting capabilities in both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions.

The F-15 Eagle is an all-weather, extremely maneuverable, tactical fighter designed to permit the Air Force to gain and maintain air supremacy over the battlefield.

The F-15C, D and E models were deployed to the Persian Gulf in 1991 in support of Operation Desert Storm where they proved their superior combat capability. F-15C fighters accounted for 34 of the 37 Air Force air-to-air victories. The F-15E's were operated mainly at night, hunting SCUD missile launchers and artillery sites using the LANTIRN system.

They have since been deployed for air expeditionary force deployments and Operations Southern Watch -- the no-fly zone in Southern Iraq, Provide Comfort in Turkey, Allied Force in Bosnia, Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan and Iraqi Freedom in Iraq.

Lockheed Martin's fourth quarter financial statement out this morning carries a nice surprise for Wall Street. Since Lockheed's last financial update in October, the defense contractor has raised its minimum sales target for 2008 by about $550 million. Lockheed's press release explains the increase is "primarily as a result of volume and performance in the Aeronautics business area".

Hmm, let me think. What's happened since October that would boost sales for Lockheed's Aero sector by half a billion?

Could it be this?

It's getting personal with the F-22 and Gordon England.

I first noticed this a few weeks ago when Loren Thompson, a paid Lockheed mouthpiece and industry analyst, in so many words accused the deputy secretary of defense of using his current clout to settle old scores from his days as a defense industry executive.

England "lost a succession struggle" at Lockheed, Thompson wrote, and "now wants to kill his creation".

England's "creation" apparently means the F-22, which he is indeed trying to kill to secure the future of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

I know what you're asking: Both aircraft of course are built by Lockheed, so why would England's industry past alone presuppose him to favor one or the other? Could Thompson's mercurial hint about a past "succession struggle" at Lockheed have played a part in England's current Raptor antipathy?

Hey, I love a completely unsupported, gossipy and self-serving conspiracy theory as much as the next guy, but this one I thought needed a bit of investigation.

After almost 20 minutes of exhaustive investigation -- well, exhaustive for a blog anyway -- I found an article in The Washington Post, dated May 8, 1995. The headline is "Volleying for big positions at Lockheed Martin," and buried in the story lies either the smoking gun of England's guilt, or a completely irrelevant anecdote. I'll let you decide!

To summarize, the article traced the fall-out of the Lockheed-Martin Marietta merger on the combined company's executive ranks. Keep in mind this merger came only a year after Lockheed purchased the General Dynamics Fort Worth Aircraft Company, where England was posted as President.

One of the jobs up for grabs in the spring of 1995 was president of the restructured Lockheed Martin's Fort Worth-based aeronautics division. The position was left vacant after the previous occupant, Kenneth Cannestra, decided to "retire" early in the wake of a bribery scandal in Egypt. The article says:

"There was a struggle for Cannestra's powerful Lockheed Martin position, and the winner was James A. 'Mickey' Blackwell Jr., formerly head of Lockheed's Georgia-based military aircraft division. Blackwell's elevation prompted England, one of the other competitors for the job, to leave, company officials said."

The guy in charge of the Georgia-based F-22 program got the job. England got the ticket to that place where ousted defense industry executives briefly retire to until they can win a political appointee job in the next administartion, where they can indulge their revenge fantasies on their former colleagues.

On second thought, maybe England just thinks it makes more sense to allow the F-22 line to die in order to preserve what's left of the long-term viability of the F-35 production line.
Naaaahhhhh ... couldn't be.

Here's a news flash from my esteemed competitors at AviationWeek.com: the US Air Force intends to buy 380 Lockheed Martin F-22s, no matter what it costs them.
The article, which quotes Air Force Materiel Command chief General Bruce Carlson, says:

"We're committed to funding 380," Carlson said Feb. 13 after speaking at Aviation Week's Defense Technology and Requirements conference in Washington. "We're building a program right now to do that. It's going to be incredibly difficult on the Air Force, but we've done this before."

Bob Cox at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's SkyTalk blog alerts us:

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, apparently tired of the Air Force's very open campaign to buy hundreds more F-22 fighters despite Pentagon policies, has reminded the service's top brass that civilians dictate military policy in the U.S. and not vice versa.

One senior defense official called the remarks by Gen. Bruce Carlson, who heads the Air Force command responsible for testing and developing new weapons, "borderline insubordination," because they contradicted a decision by the president.

A Lockheed Martin F-22A on November 1 experienced an "in-flight emergency" and landed safely at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, but the previously undisclosed incident caused more than $1 million of damage to the aircraft, the US Air Force confirmed to me this morning.
No details of the so-called "Class A" mishap are being released pending a report by the Accident Investigation Board (AIB). Any incident that causes at least $1 million is classified as a Class A mishap and prompts an investigation by the AIB.
The first notice of the new F-22A mishap appeared on the AIB's official web site, which was recently updated with the new information.
The F-22A incident occured on November 1, not on November 2 as reported on the AIB site, says a spokesman for the Air Combat Command.
More details to follow ...

(Source: US Air Force)