Boeing VP marketing Randy Tinseth is in London today where he personally presented the company’s 2008 Current Market Outlook (CMO) for the next 20 years. This is aerospace we’re talking about – the numbers are bemusingly huge and they make the industry’s traumas look like a minor hiccup in the long run. If you believe them of course. Like Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, Boeing’s is produced bottom-up, airline by agonising airline, so it’s hard to argue with.
But, the suspicion is that neither of them can resist giving it a little self-serving spin at the end. Here are my key points out of it – to stress, they’re mine, not Boeing’s.
- Forecast sales of jets (>30 seats) 29,400 aircraft worth $3.2 trillion. 30% of those already in the backlog.
- Global fleet in 20 years to be 35,800 versus 36,400 previously forecast – mainly due to up-gauging (yuk) from smaller regional jets.
- Markedly faster retirement rate for older aircraft – 43% of the total sales to be for replacement compared to 36% previously forecast. Only 18% of today’s fleet still around in 20 years.
- Gentler cycles in future (and softer landing this time) due to more diverse sales by geography and model.
- Whole forecast based on oil at $70-80 a barrel over the period, and global GDP growth (the primary market driver) of 3.2%.
- Single-aisle (43%) and twin-aisle (46%) dominate the market; only 2% RJs and 9% 747/A380 class.
- Asia to be biggest market (38%) with Europe (25%) and North America (23%) about the same.
- 747/A380 class market still worth $290 billion over the period.