Rather like the epic Aeroflot saga fought out between governments hand in hand with Boeing and Airbus, the ongoing THY Turkish Airlines contest is turning out to have a predictably long-drawn-out final scene.
Today Flight's extremely well-informed Turkish correspondent Tolga Ozbek reports that the decision, due to have been made before the end of the year, has been postponed to mid-January at the request of the bidders. Seems the talking is not yet over.
As a reminder, up for grabs here are no fewer than 105 aircraft made up of 25 firm and 10 optional widebodies, plus 50 firm and 20 optional narrowbodies. A350s, A330s, 777s and 787s, A320s and 737s are all in the potential mix.
Big business, but the strategic issues hovering the background have got everyone's attention. Consider Turkey: finely balanced between Islamic and Western influences, of legendary geographic significance, a crucial US ally in the Middle East, but in protracted talks over possible European Union membership, and an emergent industrial power - not least in aerospace.
Recent history tells you little - THY is an A340/A330/A320, 737 and sometime BAE RJ operator. And Turkish Aerospace Industries has large contracts with Airbus, Boeing and various engine and other second-tier suppliers. Most recently Airbus placed more A350 work with the company and claims to have doubled its work placed in Turkey to $40 million this year from $19 million in 2006.
THY got its 737s at a then-famously deep discount as well as a 50% offset. A Turkish government, furious at discouraging noises from the EU about its potential membership, reportedly told the airline to snub Airbus. But as the years rolled by, THY ended up with Airbus widebodies.
This time, who knows....but you can be sure the price will be attractive.
on December 18, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply
Another great piece of analysis on this blog! It's true that Turkey is a sort of middle point between a lot of world issues...
I wonder if THY's lease of Jet's 77Ws is any indication that the carrier may be leaning towards Boeing for its widebodied fleet... I guess we'll get the answer pretty soon!
on December 19, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply
Good point, and it's also been pointed out to me that Turkey's JSF involvement is going to count for something. But then it's also on the A400M (not quite in the same offset league though.)
As it happens, I learned from a good source last night that the hot money is on a mixed buy for the narrowbodies - something that THY can manage because of their large mixed fleet already - and a single deal for the widebodies that still might go either way.
on December 20, 2008 3:23 AM | Reply
I believe they took the 77W's simply because they were available in a short timeframe. Would not read too much into this at all.
on February 5, 2009 3:15 PM | Reply
Apparently they're now looking at May/June.