It will be 2026 or 2027 before the A320neo will negatively impact values of the A320 Legacy aircraft, a company sales official told the ISTAT conference 14 March.
Andy Shankland, Airbus, VP marketing, said, "We can't really predict the future but we can look at the past." Citing Ascend and Avitas value databases, Shankland looked at 737 Classic compared with the Next Generation and noted that Classics lost about 20% of value only after deliveries of the Next Generation equaled 50% of the Classic installed base.
There were "large differences between the Classic and the Next Generation," Shankland said, noting that there is 95% commonality between the NEO and the Legacy aircraft .
At the anticipated orders and production rate for the NEO, Shankland thinks it will be 2026-27 before NEO will negatively impact Legacy values.
Airbus projects sales of 4,000 NEOs. It also believes sales of the Legacy and NEO will continue for 42 years after the 1988 entry nto service.
The NEO is projected to save airlines $1 million per aircraft annually in fuel reduction.