Heightened eurozone concerns, spurred by fears of a sudden Greek bank run and spread of the crisis to Spain, are casting shadows on the outlook for aviation financing through the end of this year, says Natixis Transport's chief.
"What is expected in the second half of this year is not good. There seems to be nothing very optimistic about the next six to eight months," says Christian McCormick, head of aviation finance at the French bank.
"There used to be 10-year cycles, but now they seem to appear every six months."
Airlines that have not yet secured aircraft financings "are in trouble" he says, but McCormick admits most have learned their lessons from the 2008 meltdown and "booked financings in advance."
With Europe's banking system coming under pressure from its teetering financial economies and new regulation, Natixis has continued to grow the bank's presence in the capital markets to assist airline customers.
During the last two years, Natixis acted as liquidity provider and co-manager on a number of capital market transactions for US airlines.
More recently, Natixis made its debut as a depository agent on Continental Airlines' $892 million enhanced equipment trust certificate offering, which closed in March. The bank followed suit on deals for US Airways, American Airlines and Delta Air Lines.
Capital markets financings will jump to 10% of all aircraft deals this year from just 5% in 2011, according to Boeing's latest forecast.